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3 Forces That Could Shake Tesla Stock
Forbes· 2025-10-24 13:30
Core Insights - Tesla has experienced significant stock price declines historically, with drops exceeding 30% within two months occurring eight times, leading to substantial market value loss [1] - The company faces increasing competition, particularly from BYD, which has surpassed Tesla in global battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales as of Q3 2025 [5] - Tesla's operating income decreased by 40% year-over-year in Q3 2025, with market share falling from 49% in Q3 2024 to 41% despite record deliveries [5] - Regulatory risks are present, particularly concerning the Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, with a National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) probe involving 2.88 million Teslas [5] - Raw material costs are rising, with lithium prices increasing by 4.62% year-over-year, while nickel is experiencing oversupply [5] - Tesla's revenue growth has been negative at -1.6% over the last twelve months, with a free cash flow margin of approximately 7.1% [6] - The stock trades at a high P/E ratio of 285.3, indicating a premium valuation compared to the S&P [6] - Historical market corrections for Tesla include a 53.5% drop in 2018 and a 60.6% decline during the Covid pandemic, highlighting vulnerability to market conditions [7] - Stock prices can decline even in favorable market conditions due to earnings reports and business updates [8] Financial Performance - Tesla's operating income for Q3 2025 decreased by 40% year-over-year [5] - Revenue growth has been -1.6% over the last twelve months, with an average growth of 9.3% over the past three years [6] - Free cash flow margin stands at approximately 7.1%, with an operating margin of 5.1% over the last twelve months [6] Competitive Landscape - BYD has overtaken Tesla in global BEV sales, reporting 1.61 million units compared to Tesla's 1.22 million units as of Q3 2025 [5] - Tesla's market share has declined from 49% in Q3 2024 to 41% in Q3 2025 [5] Regulatory and Cost Challenges - The NHTSA probe involves 2.88 million Teslas concerning FSD traffic violations, with six accidents resulting in injuries [5] - Lithium prices have increased by 4.62% year-over-year to 74,800 CNY/T, while nickel is priced at $15,328 USD/T and is experiencing oversupply [5]
Elon Musk says self-driving is Tesla's future. It's struggling to get owners to pay for it.
Business Insider· 2025-10-24 11:37
Core Insights - Tesla is focusing on the adoption of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, but only about 12% of its current fleet is paying for the service, indicating limited customer acceptance [1][2][4] - Revenue from FSD decreased to $326 million in the third quarter of the previous year, while total revenue for Tesla reached a record $28.1 billion for the same quarter [2] - The company is facing regulatory hurdles in major markets like Europe and China, which are delaying the rollout of FSD technology [11] Financial Performance - Tesla reported a record revenue of $28.1 billion for the third quarter [2] - Revenue from FSD decreased compared to the previous year, attributed to lower one-time revenue recognition due to the release of additional features last year [2] Product and Technology - FSD is marketed as a driver assistance system that requires owner supervision, costing $8,000 outright or $99 per month for a subscription [3] - The latest version of FSD software includes a "Mad Max" mode, which allows for higher speeds and more frequent lane changes [11] Strategic Importance - Increasing FSD subscriptions is critical for Tesla's future, as the company aims to make autonomous vehicles mainstream and significantly boost vehicle sales [4] - Elon Musk's proposed $1 trillion pay package is tied to achieving 10 million FSD subscriptions by 2035 [5] Regulatory and Legal Challenges - Tesla is facing regulatory scrutiny in the US, with a federal investigation launched into FSD after reports of vehicles running red lights [11] - The company has also encountered lawsuits related to FSD and its earlier Autopilot technology, including a significant ruling requiring Tesla to pay $242.5 million in damages for a crash involving Autopilot [12] Future Outlook - Despite setbacks, Musk remains optimistic about the potential of FSD and its impact on transportation, suggesting that the technology will experience rapid adoption [13][14]
Tesla Stock Is Down. History Shows It Likely Won't Stay That Way.
Barrons· 2025-10-24 11:35
Core Insights - The EV maker's shares experienced a rally on Thursday following the announcement of third-quarter earnings that were weaker than expected [1] Company Summary - The company reported third-quarter earnings that did not meet market expectations, which typically would lead to a decline in share prices, yet the opposite occurred with a rally in shares [1]
Tesla Co-Founder JB Straubel's Redwood Materials Secures $350 Million In Latest Funding Round - Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)
Benzinga· 2025-10-24 09:55
Group 1: Company Overview - Redwood Materials, a battery recycling and energy storage startup founded by JB Straubel, has raised over $350 million in its latest funding round [1] - The company previously raised $1 billion in Series D funding and is backed by Nvidia Corp [1] Group 2: Funding Details - The recent funding round was a $350 million Series E led by Eclipse VC with participation from Nvidia's NVentures [2] - The funding will support Redwood's two core business lines: Critical Materials and Energy Storage [2] Group 3: Market Insights - Redwood Materials is focusing on low-cost, large-scale battery energy storage as a solution for AI factory deployment [2] - Gene Munster from Deepwater Asset Management noted that JB Straubel is working on a new product segment for low-cost, fast-deployment grid energy storage, which is expected to become Redwood's biggest business [4] Group 4: Industry Context - Tesla's energy storage business saw a 44% year-over-year revenue increase, generating over $3.4 billion, which accounted for over 12% of its total sales in Q3 2025 [6] - The renewable energy sector is experiencing growth, despite challenges posed by political stances against clean energy [5]
Jim Cramer Backs Elon Musk's Trillion-Dollar Compensation Package: Tells Investors 'Don't Be Small-Minded' - Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)
Benzinga· 2025-10-24 09:25
Renowned TV host Jim Cramer has backed Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk’s trillion-dollar compensation package, while urging investors to think beyond short-term numbers and recognize the company's broader technological ambitions and societal impact. Cramer Tells Investors ‘Don’t Be Small-Minded’On Thursday, in a post on X, Cramer weighed in on Musk’s controversial pay package from Tesla, the company that he has led for nearly two decades.See Also: Dan Ives Says Tesla Robotaxi Is ‘Biggest Competitive ...
This Is the Biggest Threat to Quantum Computing Stocks IonQ, Rigetti Computing, and D-Wave Quantum That Virtually No One Is Talking About
The Motley Fool· 2025-10-24 07:06
Core Insights - The rise of quantum computing presents significant investment opportunities, with notable returns for companies like IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc. [2] - Despite the potential, these companies face substantial challenges, including historical precedents of technology bubbles and unsustainable valuations [5][9]. Investment Opportunities - Quantum computing stocks have shown impressive trailing-12-month returns: IonQ at 347%, Rigetti Computing at 3,500%, D-Wave Quantum at 2,650%, and Quantum Computing Inc. at 1,640% [2]. - The technology has applications in drug development, internet security, weather modeling, financial risk management, and AI algorithm acceleration, indicating a large addressable market [3]. Valuation Concerns - The price-to-sales (P/S) ratios for these quantum computing companies are extremely high, with IonQ at 259, Rigetti at 1,280, D-Wave at 370, and Quantum Computing Inc. at 7,546, suggesting that these stocks are overpriced [10][9]. - Historical data indicates that companies at the forefront of new technologies have struggled to maintain P/S ratios above 30 for extended periods, raising concerns about the sustainability of current valuations [9][6]. Competitive Landscape - The "Magnificent Seven" tech giants, including Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft, are investing heavily in quantum computing, which could threaten the market position of pure-play quantum companies [12][19]. - Amazon's Braket service allows access to quantum computers from IonQ and Rigetti, providing a platform for practical applications, but this could also lead to increased competition [13][18]. Financial Challenges - The pure-play quantum computing companies are currently unprofitable and face ongoing cash outflows, which may necessitate reliance on dilutive share offerings or debt financing [15]. - In contrast, members of the Magnificent Seven are generating substantial cash flow, positioning them to dominate the quantum computing space [16].
Dan Ives Says Tesla Robotaxi Is 'Biggest Competitive Threat' To Uber, Predicts Optimus Robots Would Be In People's Houses In '2 To 3 Years' - Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)
Benzinga· 2025-10-24 05:44
Core Viewpoint - Dan Ives from Wedbush Securities believes Tesla's robotaxis could significantly threaten Uber's business, highlighting Tesla as an undervalued player in AI [1][2]. Group 1: Tesla's Autonomous and Robotics Efforts - Ives emphasizes that Tesla is entering a "golden chapter" in terms of its AI, autonomous, and robotics initiatives, suggesting strong reasons to invest in the stock [2]. - He predicts that Tesla's autonomous driving technology will be the leading consumer application, with the potential to establish a Robotaxi network if a million vehicles are deployed [3]. Group 2: Market Position and Competitive Threats - Ives identifies Tesla's Robotaxi network as a major competitive threat to Uber, noting that Tesla owners could contribute their vehicles to the network, providing a scale advantage [3]. - Elon Musk has indicated plans for driverless Robotaxis in Austin by year-end, with ambitions to expand to 8-10 major U.S. cities, although he tempered expectations regarding serving half the U.S. population [5]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Tesla reported revenue of $28.095 billion, surpassing Wall Street's expectation of $26.239 billion, but fell short on earnings per share (EPS) with $0.50 compared to the expected $0.54, marking the fourth consecutive EPS miss [6]. Group 4: Leadership and Compensation - Musk defended his compensation package, asserting Tesla's market capitalization exceeds that of all its automotive competitors, currently over $1.4 trillion [7]. - He criticized proxy advisory firms for their opposition to his pay package, labeling them as "corporate terrorists" [7].
Be Concerned About Tesla's Q3 Earnings Miss?
ZACKS· 2025-10-24 00:51
Core Viewpoint - Tesla's stock showed resilience despite missing Q3 earnings expectations, ending the day up 2% and maintaining a year-to-date gain of 10% amid cost challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Q3 Performance - Tesla's Q3 sales increased nearly 12% year-over-year to $28.09 billion, delivering a record 497,099 vehicles, surpassing sales estimates of $26.45 billion [3]. - The company's Q3 EPS dropped to $0.50 from $0.72 a year ago, missing expectations of $0.53, primarily due to margin pressures from price cuts and higher input costs [4][5]. Group 2: Market Position and Competition - Tesla faces increased competition in China, necessitating price reductions, while General Motors has emerged as a significant challenger in the domestic market [2]. - Despite missing earnings expectations in three of the last four quarters, Tesla's growth potential continues to provide some investor confidence [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Tesla's management expressed cautious optimism about demand and operational momentum but acknowledged ongoing margin pressures [8]. - Zacks estimates predict a 4% dip in Tesla's total sales for the current year, with a projected rebound of 16% to $108.02 billion in fiscal 2026 [9]. Group 4: Valuation Concerns - Tesla's P/E valuation stands at 269X forward earnings, significantly higher than the industry average of 13X, raising concerns among investors [11]. - The forward P/S ratio of 15X also indicates a steep stretch compared to the industry average of less than 1X [12]. Group 5: Investment Sentiment - Tesla's sales growth and record deliveries may sustain its stock, currently rated as a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), but consistent profit generation and meeting earnings expectations will be crucial for maintaining its elevated valuation [14].
Former Tesla bull slams Elon Musk and company, Intel earnings show signs of hope for turnaround plan
Youtube· 2025-10-23 21:41
Market Overview - Stocks are climbing, primarily driven by a rebound in the tech sector and a jump in oil prices, with the Dow up about 170 points and the S&P 500 up approximately 0.7% [1][3] - The NASDAQ composite is up 1%, and small-cap stocks, represented by the Russell 2000, are up 1.5% [3][4] Sector Performance - Energy is leading the market today, with tech following closely behind, both sectors outperforming the S&P 500 [6][59] - Notable tech stocks include Nvidia, which is up 1.3%, and Tesla, which is up 2% [7][60] - The volatility index (VIX) has decreased, indicating reduced market fear [4] Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices surged over 5% due to sanctions imposed on two Russian energy companies, with WTI settling above $61 per barrel and Brent above $65 per barrel [9][11] - Despite the recent increase, year-to-date, WTI is down 15% and Brent is down 13% [11] Earnings Reports - Intel reported third-quarter revenue of $13.7 billion, exceeding expectations, but provided a lower fourth-quarter guidance of $13.3 billion [64][65] - Ford's third-quarter results topped estimates, but the company adjusted its full-year guidance lower due to an aluminum plant fire impacting F-150 production, projecting a $1.5 to $2 billion EBIT headwind [83][84] Company Insights - Intel's CEO highlighted that AI is accelerating demand for compute, creating opportunities across their portfolio [66] - Ford plans to increase F-150 production by over 50,000 trucks in 2026 to meet demand despite production disruptions [86] Consumer Trends - Tractor Supply reported a 7% increase in comparable sales for Q3 but noted a decline in discretionary big-ticket items, reflecting current consumer spending challenges [36][39] - Windham Hotels slashed its full-year outlook and missed revenue estimates, indicating a pullback in travel demand [41][42] Geopolitical Considerations - The upcoming meeting between U.S. and Chinese leaders is being closely monitored, particularly regarding the Taiwan situation and its potential impact on the semiconductor ecosystem [30][31]
Elon Musk's $1T pay package is 'most absurd pay package in the history of business' investor says
Youtube· 2025-10-23 21:28
Core Viewpoint - CEO Elon Musk is advocating for a $1 trillion pay package that will be voted on by shareholders in November, raising concerns about its legality and implications for corporate governance [1][16][17]. Group 1: Tesla's EV Business Performance - Tesla's Q3 deliveries were solid, but there are concerns about future growth in the EV business, especially in a post-EV tax credit environment [2][4]. - Current estimates suggest Tesla's sales potential is maxed out at around 1.9 million units per year, with projections for next year dropping to approximately 1.6 million cars [3][4]. - Analysts may not be accounting for the declining growth potential, as the company struggles to maintain demand without effective advertising [4][6]. Group 2: Product Affordability and Market Strategy - The introduction of more affordable models is viewed skeptically, as reducing the quality of the product to lower prices does not equate to true affordability [5][6]. - The strategy of diminishing product value to sell at lower prices is seen as a sign of weakness, indicating a disconnect between Tesla's needs and its current actions [6][7]. Group 3: Full Self-Driving (FSD) Technology - There are significant doubts about the viability of Tesla's full self-driving technology, with concerns that it will not be operational as promised [10][13]. - Comparisons are made with competitors like Waymo, which are perceived to be outperforming Tesla's FSD capabilities [12][13]. Group 4: Shareholder Governance and CEO Compensation - The upcoming vote on Musk's pay package is criticized as potentially the most absurd in business history, with concerns about its legality and lack of negotiation [16][17]. - There is skepticism about the board's willingness to challenge Musk, as they are seen as closely aligned with him, leading to poor shareholder governance [19][20].