Core Viewpoint - HSBC warns that Tesla's profitability will continue to be disappointing, facing three significant challenges in scaling its Robotaxi business [1][3] Group 1: Delivery and Financial Forecasts - HSBC maintains a "reduce" rating on Tesla with a target price of $120, indicating a 63% downside from the current stock price [1][4] - Based on actual sales data from April and May, HSBC predicts that Tesla's Q2 delivery volume will remain flat quarter-over-quarter, which is 15% lower than market expectations [2][3] - The firm expects operational revenue to be 8% lower than consensus due to weak delivery volumes, with free cash flow expected to be slightly positive [2][3] Group 2: Challenges Facing Robotaxi - Tesla's Robotaxi business must overcome three major challenges: proving the robustness of its pure camera solution compared to competitors' sensor combinations, changing consumer perceptions about vehicle ownership, and demonstrating profitability in the Robotaxi operation [3] - Early signs from the Austin pilot raise concerns about the reliability of Tesla's approach [3] Group 3: Valuation and Business Segments - HSBC uses a DCF valuation and peer multiples, each accounting for 50% of the valuation, maintaining a target price of $120 [4] - The DCF valuation covers six business segments, including automotive, energy storage, full self-driving, Dojo, Optimus, and services, yielding a fair value of $180 per share [5]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's Q1 2025 earnings report appears disappointing at first glance, but it contains underlying improvements, particularly in vehicle sales margins and pricing stability [1][5]. Revenue Performance - Total revenue for the quarter was $19.34 billion, falling short of market expectations but slightly better than revised estimates of around $20 billion for automotive revenue [1][12]. - Automotive revenue reached $14.2 billion, with actual vehicle sales (excluding carbon credits) at $12.9 billion, slightly below the latest market expectations [12][15]. Vehicle Sales and Margins - The gross margin for vehicle sales, excluding carbon credits, was 12.5%, exceeding market expectations of 12.2% and reflecting a decline of 1.1 percentage points from the previous quarter [1][19]. - The average selling price per vehicle remained stable at $40,000, showing a slight increase from $39,800 in the previous quarter [2][21]. Future Sales Guidance - Tesla did not reiterate its previous guidance for positive year-over-year sales growth in 2025, but confirmed plans to launch the lower-cost Model 2.5 in the first half of 2025, alleviating market concerns about its cancellation [2][45]. Operating Profit and Costs - Operating profit for the quarter was $400 million, down nearly $1.2 billion from the previous quarter and below market expectations of $700 million, resulting in an operating margin of 2.1% [3][55]. - Increased operating expenses contributed to the decline in operating profit, with R&D expenses at $1.41 billion, exceeding market expectations [50][55]. Market Conditions and Risks - The market has lowered its 2025 sales expectations to 1.81 million units, with some analysts projecting even lower figures due to various regional challenges [7][47]. - In the U.S., potential cuts to the IRA subsidies could raise vehicle prices by approximately 12%, impacting demand [6][46]. - In Europe, recent policy changes regarding carbon emissions targets may create uncertainty for electric vehicle sales [6][46]. - In China, Tesla faces increasing competition and declining attractiveness of its models, particularly the Model Y Juniper [6][47].