Core Viewpoint - Analysts expect Fair Isaac (FICO) to report quarterly earnings of $6.95 per share, reflecting a 20% year-over-year increase, with revenues projected at $500.78 million, up 13.8% from the previous year [1] Earnings Projections - Changes in earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor reactions to the stock, with empirical studies showing a strong link between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price movements [2] Revenue Estimates - Analysts forecast 'Revenues- Professional services' at $17.82 million, indicating a decrease of 2.5% from the prior year [4] - 'Revenues- Software' is expected to reach $211.03 million, reflecting a 3.3% increase from the previous year [4] - 'Revenues- Scores' are projected at $290.07 million, showing a significant increase of 23.1% year-over-year [4] - 'Revenues- On-premises and SaaS software' is estimated at $192.15 million, also a 3.3% increase from the prior year [5] - 'Revenues- Scores- Business-to-consumer' is expected to be $56.51 million, indicating a 6% increase from the previous year [5] - 'Revenues- Scores- Business-to-business' is projected at $230.60 million, reflecting a 26.4% increase year-over-year [6] Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) Estimates - 'Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) - Platform' is expected to be $272.35 million, up from $227.70 million reported in the same quarter last year [6] - 'Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) - Total' is projected at $763.13 million, compared to $729.30 million reported in the same quarter last year [7] - 'Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) - Non-Platform' is expected to reach $491.29 million, down from $501.60 million reported in the same quarter last year [7] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Fair Isaac shares have declined by 10.1%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has increased by 0.6%. The company holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), suggesting it may outperform the overall market in the near future [7]

Core Viewpoint - Fair Isaac (FICO) has experienced a significant downtrend, with a 13.4% decline over the past four weeks, but it is now in oversold territory, suggesting a potential turnaround due to analysts' positive earnings outlook [1]. Group 1: Technical Indicators - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a key technical indicator used to identify oversold conditions, with a reading below 30 indicating a stock may be oversold [2]. - FICO's current RSI reading is 27.34, indicating that the heavy selling pressure may be exhausting, which could lead to a price rebound [5]. - Stocks oscillate between overbought and oversold conditions, and the RSI helps investors identify potential reversal points [3]. Group 2: Fundamental Indicators - There is a strong consensus among sell-side analysts regarding an increase in FICO's earnings estimates, with a 3.8% rise in the consensus EPS estimate over the last 30 days [7]. - An upward trend in earnings estimate revisions typically correlates with price appreciation in the near term [7]. - FICO holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks, indicating a strong potential for a turnaround [8].

Core Insights - Zacks Premium provides various tools and resources to help investors make informed decisions and enhance their investment strategies [1][2] Zacks Style Scores - Zacks Style Scores rate stocks based on value, growth, and momentum characteristics, aiding investors in selecting securities with high potential for market outperformance over the next 30 days [2][3] - Stocks are rated from A to F, with A indicating the highest potential for outperforming the market [3] Value Score - The Value Style Score focuses on identifying undervalued stocks by analyzing financial ratios such as P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, and Price/Cash Flow [3] Growth Score - The Growth Style Score emphasizes a company's financial health and future growth potential, considering projected and historical earnings, sales, and cash flow [4] Momentum Score - The Momentum Style Score helps investors capitalize on price trends by analyzing short-term price changes and earnings estimate revisions [5] VGM Score - The VGM Score combines all three Style Scores, providing a comprehensive indicator for investors seeking attractive value, growth forecasts, and momentum [6] Zacks Rank - The Zacks Rank is a proprietary model that utilizes earnings estimate revisions to assist investors in building successful portfolios, with 1 (Strong Buy) stocks achieving an average annual return of +23.9% since 1988 [7][9] - Investors are encouraged to focus on stocks with a Zacks Rank of 1 or 2 and Style Scores of A or B for optimal return potential [9][10] Company Spotlight: Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) - Fair Isaac Corporation, known as FICO, is rated 2 (Buy) on the Zacks Rank and has a VGM Score of B, making it a strong candidate for growth investors [11] - FICO is projected to achieve year-over-year earnings growth of 34.6% for the current fiscal year, supported by a Growth Style Score of A [11] - Recent upward revisions in earnings estimates have increased the Zacks Consensus Estimate to $40.22 per share, with an average earnings surprise of +3.8% [12]

Core Viewpoint - FICO, a global leader in analytics software, is set to announce its first quarter fiscal 2026 results on January 28, 2026, after market close [1] Group 1 - The conference call regarding the fiscal results will take place on January 28th at 5:00 p.m. Eastern time [1] - The call will be accessible via webcast on FICO's investor relations website [1] - A replay of the webcast will be available until January 28, 2027, under the Event Calendar section [1]

Core Insights - Fair Isaac (FICO) is positioned to continue its earnings-beat streak, having surpassed earnings estimates by an average of 8.16% in the last two quarters [1][2] Earnings Performance - For the most recent quarter, Fair Isaac reported earnings of $7.74 per share, exceeding the expected $7.34 per share by 5.45% [2] - In the previous quarter, the company reported $8.57 per share against an estimate of $7.73 per share, resulting in a surprise of 10.87% [2] Earnings Estimates and Predictions - There has been a favorable change in earnings estimates for Fair Isaac, with a positive Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) indicating a strong likelihood of an earnings beat [5][8] - The current Earnings ESP for Fair Isaac is +0.64%, suggesting analysts are optimistic about its near-term earnings potential [8] Zacks Rank and Success Rate - Fair Isaac holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), which, when combined with a positive Earnings ESP, indicates a high probability of another earnings beat [8] - Research indicates that stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) or better have a nearly 70% success rate in beating consensus estimates [6]

Core Insights - Mar Vista Investment Partners reported a strong performance in U.S. equities for 2025, marking the second consecutive year of double-digit gains, with a notable recovery from a bear market dip in April [1] - The Mar Vista U.S. Quality strategy achieved a net-of-fees gain of +0.20% in Q4 2025, underperforming the Russell 1000® Index (+2.41%) and the S&P 500® Index (+2.65%) [1] - Stock selection in communication services, consumer discretionary, and financials sectors positively impacted performance, while information technology, materials, and healthcare sectors detracted from it [1] - The outlook for 2026 suggests a need for balance between strong fundamentals and increasing economic uncertainties [1] Company-Specific Insights - Equifax Inc. (NYSE:EFX) was highlighted in the investor letter, with a one-month return of 0.83% and a 52-week loss of 12.68% [2] - As of January 12, 2026, Equifax's stock closed at $221.63 per share, with a market capitalization of $27.248 billion [2] - Mar Vista divested its position in Equifax during Q4 2025 due to strategic shifts by FICO, which plans to sell credit scores directly to mortgage underwriters, increasing uncertainty in the credit-scoring value chain [3] - The decision to exit the position was influenced by a slower-than-expected recovery in the housing market and a weakened risk-reward profile for the investment [3]

Core Viewpoint - Growth investors are focused on stocks with above-average financial growth, but identifying stocks that can fulfill their growth potential is challenging due to associated risks and volatility [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Fair Isaac (FICO) is highlighted as a recommended growth stock with a favorable Growth Score and a top Zacks Rank [2] - The company has a historical EPS growth rate of 23%, with projected EPS growth of 33.1% this year, significantly surpassing the industry average of 8.4% [5] Group 2: Financial Metrics - Fair Isaac's year-over-year cash flow growth is 37.3%, well above the industry average of 1.7%, indicating strong financial health [6] - The company's annualized cash flow growth rate over the past 3-5 years is 17.1%, compared to the industry average of 8.6% [7] Group 3: Earnings Estimates - There has been a positive trend in earnings estimate revisions for Fair Isaac, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year increasing by 1.8% over the past month [9] - Fair Isaac has achieved a Growth Score of A and a Zacks Rank of 2 due to positive earnings estimate revisions, suggesting it is a solid choice for growth investors [11]

Core Insights - TransUnion has launched a revised mortgage pricing model featuring VantageScore® 4.0, aimed at enhancing the mortgage market's safety and cost-effectiveness [1][3] - The new model offers a significant pricing advantage, with VantageScore 4.0 available for $4 per score in 2026, representing a 60% discount compared to FICO scores [1][3] - The introduction of VantageScore 4.0 is expected to lower costs for lenders and consumers while maintaining underwriting costs at 2025 levels [1][3] Company Overview - TransUnion is a global information and insights company with over 13,000 employees operating in more than 30 countries, focusing on providing reliable consumer representations in the marketplace [7] - The company aims to empower consumers and businesses through innovative solutions that extend beyond core credit services into marketing, fraud, risk, and advanced analytics [7] Industry Context - The mortgage industry has historically been constrained by FICO's monopoly, which has led to increased lending costs due to significant royalty hikes from FICO [3] - TransUnion's approach of bundling credit data with VantageScore 4.0 is designed to reduce costs and provide lenders with a more manageable pricing structure [3][5] - The new model is expected to enhance access to loans for qualified homebuyers while ensuring the safety and soundness of the U.S. mortgage market [5]

Group 1 - Consumers accrued a record $10 billion in purchases using buy now, pay later (BNPL) plans in November, with $1 billion spent on Cyber Monday alone [1] - Approximately half of Americans have utilized BNPL services for various purchases, indicating widespread adoption [1] - The total BNPL debt is difficult to quantify as lenders are not required to report to credit bureaus, leading to a largely invisible debt landscape [2] Group 2 - In 2023, Americans spent over $116 billion through BNPL plans, a significant increase from $2 billion in 2019, highlighting rapid growth in the sector [3] - BNPL companies generate revenue primarily through transaction fees charged to merchants, with Klarna achieving a valuation of $15 billion upon its NYSE debut and reporting $903 million in revenue, a 26% increase year-over-year [3] - Borrowers can access credit lines up to $20,000 without a credit report, allowing them to significantly increase their purchasing power by using multiple BNPL services simultaneously [4] Group 3 - BNPL lenders are not subject to the same regulations as traditional credit products, such as the CARD Act and the Truth in Lending Act, which could lead to consumer risks [5] - Although typical BNPL plans last four to six weeks, they can extend much longer, and regulatory scrutiny has been limited, with past investigations failing to impose stricter regulations [5] - FICO plans to include BNPL debts in credit histories, which may impact consumer behavior regarding installment plans, although the method of data collection remains unclear [5]

Core Insights - FICO's October 2025 credit card data indicates a decline in credit card spending compared to both the previous month and the previous year, with average balances falling for the first time since May, although they remain higher than in October 2024 [1][3][8] Spending Trends - Average UK credit card spend decreased by 4.7% month-on-month and 3% year-on-year, reaching £765 [7][8] - The average card balance fell by 0.7% month-on-month to £1,900, yet is still 4.7% higher than the same month in 2024 [7][8] - The percentage of total balance paid dropped by 0.8% month-on-month to 34.36%, which is 7.6% lower than October 2024 [7][8] Payment Behavior - The percentage of customers missing one payment increased by 7.5% month-on-month, while those missing two payments rose by 2.6% [7][8] - The percentage of accounts with three missed payments decreased by 2.3% [7][8] Credit Limits and Overlimit Accounts - Average credit limits saw a modest increase of 0.2% month-on-month to £5,910, remaining 2.5% higher year-on-year [5][7] - The number of overlimit accounts decreased by 6.0% month-on-month to 1.35%, although this figure is still 3.3% higher than last year [5][6] Financial Vulnerabilities - The increase in missed payments and the high delinquent average balance raise concerns about financial vulnerabilities among consumers, particularly as the Christmas spending peak approaches [3][4][6]