Investment Rating - The report reiterates a Buy rating on TSMC as the leading Cloud/Edge AI foundry [4] - ASE is also rated as a Buy due to its position as a key beneficiary of advanced packaging and testing [4] - GPTC is upgraded to a Buy with a new price target of NT$1,800, implying a 35% upside [4][22] Core Insights - TSMC's N3 capacity is forecasted to reach 170kwpm by the end of 2026, up from 120kwpm at the end of 2025 [1] - Cloud AI is expected to account for 35-40% of N3 demand in 2026, with smartphones and PCs making up 60-65% [1] - CoWoS capacity is anticipated to be tight in 2026, with TSMC likely to accelerate capacity expansion [2] - Demand forecasts for CoWoS have been raised significantly for Nvidia (13% increase), AMD (56% increase), and Broadcom [3] Summary by Sections N3 Foundry Supply-Demand Analysis - TSMC's N3 capacity is projected to increase to 170kwpm by end-2026 from 120kwpm at end-2025 [1] - Cloud AI products are expected to represent 35-40% of N3 demand in 2026, with other devices accounting for 60-65% [1] - N3 utilization is expected to be tight, particularly in Q4 2026 [1] CoWoS Capacity and Demand - CoWoS capacity is forecasted to reach 110kwpm by Q3 2026, with potential upside in late 2026 [2] - Demand for CoWoS from Nvidia is expected to reach 3 million units in 2026, with AMD's demand forecast raised by 56% [3] - Broadcom's CoWoS demand is projected to increase to 260-280k units in 2026, up from 90-100k in 2025 [3] Stock Recommendations - TSMC's capex for 2026/27 is raised to US$50bn/52bn from US$46bn/50bn, with a price target increase to NT$1,800 [4] - ASE is highlighted as a key beneficiary of advanced packaging and testing [4] - GPTC's long-term earnings CAGR is forecasted at 20% over 2027-29, with a significant market share in advanced packaging [22]

Core Viewpoint - US tech giants, including Apple, Amazon, Cisco, Meta, HP, and Intel, oppose the allocation of the 6 GHz band for mobile services, advocating instead for its use for Wi-Fi services [1][2]. Group 1: Spectrum Allocation and Auction - The US technology companies argue that the technical and commercial readiness for mobile services in the 6 GHz band is not established [2]. - The government has indicated that 400 MHz of frequencies in the 6 GHz band are available for auction, with 300 MHz expected to be available by 2030 and 500 MHz to be delicensed for low power applications, primarily Wi-Fi [5][6]. - Reliance Jio has requested that the entire 1200 MHz spectrum in the 6 GHz band be included in the upcoming auction, despite the government's decision to delicence 500 MHz for low power applications [5][6]. Group 2: Industry Responses and Concerns - Airtel has also requested a deferment of the 6 GHz band auction due to ecosystem readiness challenges, including device availability and network equipment [7]. - Qualcomm supports the deferment, emphasizing the importance of aligning with global standards and safeguarding India's 6G future [8]. - The Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI) opposes the delicensing of the 6 GHz band, arguing that it undermines quality of service and scalability for digital applications [9][10]. Group 3: Implications of Delicensing - COAI warns that delicensing any part of the 6 GHz band could permanently limit its use for licensed mobile broadband services, affecting India's long-term digital capacity [10]. - Concerns are raised that unlicensed Wi-Fi deployments by global OTT players could disadvantage local telecom operators and reduce government revenues [11].

Core Viewpoint - US technology companies, including Amazon and Qualcomm, oppose the allocation of the upper 6GHz band for International Mobile Telecommunications (IMT) services, advocating instead for the entire 6GHz band to be designated for Wi-Fi services due to concerns over technical and commercial readiness [1][8][10] Group 1: Spectrum Allocation and Auction - The Indian government has stated that 400MHz of airwaves in the 6GHz band are available for auction, with an additional 300MHz expected by 2030, and 500MHz to be delicensed for low-power applications like Wi-Fi [2][10] - Reliance Jio is pushing for the entire 1200MHz spectrum in the 6GHz band to be included in the upcoming auction, despite the government's decision to delicence part of the band for low-power applications [2][10] - Airtel and Qualcomm have called for the deferment of the auction for the 6425-6725 MHz and 7025-7125 MHz bands, citing the need for ecosystem readiness and alignment with global standards [4][10] Group 2: Industry Associations' Stance - The Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI) opposes the delicensing of the 6GHz band, arguing that licensed IMT spectrum is essential for quality service and scalability for future applications like 6G [5][6][10] - COAI warns that delicensing any part of the 6GHz band could permanently limit India's digital capacity and affordable service provision [6][10] - The Manufacturers Association of Information Technology (MAIT) supports the idea of allowing unlicensed access in the lower 6GHz band and suggests extending this to parts of the upper 6GHz for future Wi-Fi generations [7][10]

Industry Overview - Quantum computers are expected to solve problems that classical computers cannot or would take years to solve, utilizing quantum bits (qubits) in superposition to encode more data simultaneously [1] - The global quantum computing market for hardware and software is projected to reach between $90 billion and $170 billion by 2040, with a current valuation of approximately $1.4 billion in 2024, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 30% to 35% [2] Market Growth Potential - Significant growth in the quantum computing market is anticipated towards the backend of the forecast period, as the technology is still in its early stages and several challenges need to be addressed for practical applications [3] Patent Activity Insights - Monitoring patent activity is a valuable tool for investors in emerging technologies, as patents provide a temporary monopoly on inventions [5] - The top companies in quantum computing patent activity in 2024 include IBM with 117 patents (16% increase), Alphabet with 63 patents (13% increase), and Microsoft with 21 patents (45% decrease) [9][11] - The U.S. leads in quantum computing patents awarded in 2024, with IBM and Alphabet being the frontrunners, while Rigetti Computing holds the most patents among pure-play quantum companies [10][12]

Core Insights - Direxion is launching five new single-stock daily leveraged and inverse ETFs aimed at traders focused on speed, volatility, and thematic investments [1][2] Product Overview - The new ETFs include Oracle Bull 2X Shares (NASDAQ:ORCU), Oracle Bear 1X Shares (NASDAQ:ORCS), Coinbase Bull 2X Shares (NASDAQ:CONX), Robinhood Bull 2X Shares (NASDAQ:HODU), and Intel Bull 2X Shares (NASDAQ:LINT) [2] - These ETFs provide magnified or inverse daily exposure to key technology and trading-platform companies, covering sectors like crypto infrastructure (Coinbase and Robinhood), enterprise cloud and AI (Oracle), and semiconductors (Intel) [2] Market Demand - The launch reflects increasing demand from traders seeking tools that align with their conviction levels, rather than long-term investment products [3] - Direxion's Chief Product Officer highlighted that these funds cater to market participants who prefer targeted instruments for short-term market views [3] Risk Profile - Direxion emphasizes that these ETFs are short-term tactical tools and not suitable for diversified or buy-and-hold strategies [4] - The firm warns that leveraged and inverse single-stock ETFs can exhibit unpredictable behavior over multiple days due to compounding effects [4] Thematic Strategy - This launch is part of a broader thematic expansion by Direxion, which includes previously introduced leveraged and inverse AI-and-Big-Data ETFs [5] - The company is reinforcing its brand identity by focusing on precision, speed, and concentrated exposure to companies driving crypto accessibility and AI infrastructure [5]

Core Insights - Anthropic has committed $30 billion to utilize Microsoft's Azure cloud services, with backing from NVIDIA, indicating strong strategic partnerships in the AI sector [2][4] - The deal is seen as part of a "circular" investment pattern in the AI industry, raising concerns about inflated expectations for high-valuation companies [3][5] - The collaboration enhances Anthropic's computing capabilities and valuation while securing long-term demand for NVIDIA's AI chips and expanding Microsoft's AI ecosystem [4][5] Group 1 - Anthropic's $30 billion investment in Microsoft Azure aims to secure up to one gigawatt of compute capacity, supported by NVIDIA's potential $10 billion investment and Microsoft's $5 billion funding [4] - Analysts express caution regarding the circular AI economy, suggesting it may lead to overinflated expectations for major tech companies [3][5] - The deal highlights increasing competition in the AI space, putting pressure on smaller players [4] Group 2 - The relationship between Anthropic, Microsoft, and NVIDIA exemplifies the interconnected nature of investments in the AI sector, with NVIDIA being a consistent player [5] - There are concerns that while commitments are made, actual spending may differ, and a shift in demand-supply dynamics could impact technology stocks negatively [5][6] - The perception of overvaluation in stocks like Microsoft and NVIDIA raises questions about the potential risks associated with these related-party transactions [6]

Seven tech giants have weighed in on India’s 6 GHz spectrum debate, asking authorities to drop the auctioning of the spectrum and opt for a more social-welfare valuation approach.Rather than setting timelines for future auction, Amazon, Apple, Broadcom, Cisco Systems, Meta Platforms, Hewlett Packard Enterprise and Intel Corporation in a joint submission asked the Telecom Authority of India (TRAI) to align the allocation of the upper 6 GHz band with the World Radio Conference 2027 regulations. In the interim ...

Core Viewpoint - The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (Trai) is facing significant challenges regarding the upcoming spectrum auction, with major disagreements among Big Tech companies and telecom operators, particularly Airtel and Jio, over the use and pricing of radio spectrum [1][2]. Spectrum Usage and Timing - Disputes center around the allocation and pricing of critical spectrum bands, especially the 6 GHz band, which is essential for future 5G/6G networks and superfast Wi-Fi [3][4]. - Big Tech companies argue that the 6 GHz band should not be auctioned in the upcoming round due to a lack of technical and commercial readiness [4][5]. - The Manufacturers' Association for Information Technology has requested Trai to delay the auction of the 6 GHz band until the global ecosystem is more developed [6][7]. Auction Dynamics - Reliance Jio advocates for the immediate auction of the entire 1200 MHz of the 6 GHz band, emphasizing its importance for India's 5G/6G ambitions [8]. - Currently, only 400 MHz of the 6 GHz band is available for immediate auction, with the remaining portions expected to be available only by December 2030 [9]. Pricing Issues - Telecom operators are calling for significant reductions in the reserve price for the upcoming spectrum auction, while Jio opposes any price cuts for existing bands [12][13]. - Airtel argues that lower reserve prices are necessary to facilitate network expansion and improve service quality, while Jio warns that price reductions could undermine investor confidence [14][15]. Auction Performance and Trends - The June 2024 auction saw 10,522.35 MHz of spectrum offered at a reserve price of ₹96,238.45 crore, with only 141.40 MHz sold [16]. - In 2022, prior to the launch of 5G services, operators acquired 51,236 MHz of spectrum worth over ₹1.5 trillion from a total offering of 72,098 MHz valued at ₹4.3 trillion [17]. Spectrum Caps - Jio is advocating for the elimination of spectrum caps, arguing they are outdated and hinder market growth, while Airtel supports maintaining and even reducing the caps to ensure competitive balance [17][18].

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Core Insights - Bitcoin mining stocks experienced a rise, driven by Nvidia's stronger-than-expected quarterly results, with notable increases in IREN (9%), TeraWulf (9%), Core Scientific (5%), and Cipher Mining (13%) [1] - Nvidia reported a 62% revenue growth in Q3, marking its first acceleration in seven quarters, which added approximately $300 billion in market value to AI-related stocks [2] - Publicly traded bitcoin miners with hyperscale contracts have been decoupling from bitcoin prices since August, a trend that accelerated after Nvidia's earnings announcement [2] Company Developments - Cipher Mining's shares increased by 10% following a 56-megawatt, 10-year hosting contract with Fluidstack, adding about $830 million in contracted revenue, raising total contracted revenue with Fluidstack to approximately $3.8 billion [3][4] - IREN announced a five-year cloud compute agreement with Microsoft valued at about $9.7 billion, marking its first major hyperscaler contract, which includes a 20% prepayment and is supported by four new liquid-cooled data centers [5] - IREN also secured a GPU-related infrastructure agreement with Dell Technologies worth about $5.8 billion, funded through existing cash and new financing, leading to a 21% rise in shares [6] Investment Trends - AI-focused hedge funds have increased their exposure to miners transitioning into compute services, with significant positions reported in Core Scientific ($362 million) and IREN ($338 million) as of September 30 [7]