| --- | --- | |-------------------------------|------------------------------------| | | | | 作者 | | | 分析师 夏君 | | | 执业证书编号： S0680519100004 | | | 邮箱： xiajun@gszq.com | | | 分析师 朱若菲 | | | 执业证书编号： S0680522030003 | | | 邮箱： zhuruofei@gszq.com | | | 相关研究 | | | 1 、《英伟达（ NVDA.O | ）：百川终将归海， AI 奇点到来》 | P.3 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 本报告署名分析师在此声明：我们具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格或相当的专业胜任能力，本报告所表 述的任何观点均精准地反映了我们对标的证券和发行人的个人看法，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响。我们所得报酬的 任何部分无论是在过去、现在及将来均不会与本报告中的具体投资建议或观点有直接或间接联系。 邮箱：gsresearch@gszq.com 风险提示：下游 AI 应用不及预期、数据中心算力芯片竞争 ...

估值方面，我们认为英伟达在 AI 引擎领域具有较高的软硬件协同 优势，其英伟达在生成式 AI 及加速计算领域均已建立了强大的生态体 系，且在现有绝对领导优势的情况下不断突破自身上限，持续推出各类 具有行业领导性的标杆类产品，已经形成多维度的垄断优势，并正向反 馈进一步积累规模优势。其在 AI 算力行业中保持强大的盈利能力和持 久性，在数据中心高端 GPU 方面的技术和市场优势极为明显，短期内 难以撼动，存在极强的标的稀缺性。我们预计英伟达 GPU 的需求将在 2025 年延续强劲的需求，同比仍将呈现较高速增长。从过去 5 年的 PEBAND 中，我们类比英伟达在两次需求周期的估值中枢，基于 FY2025E PE 30X，提升目标价至 892 美元，维持"增持"评级。 数据来源:iFinD，国泰君安证券研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 8 of 11 出口限制的不确定性；主要云厂商资本开支节奏放缓；公司产品研 发及出货速度不及预期；芯片市场竞争加剧。 英伟达（NVDA.US） 本报告仅供国泰君安证券股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）的客户使用。本公司不会因接收人收到本报告而视其为本公司 的当然客户。本报告 ...

2024 年 2 月 26 日 英伟达（NVDA.US） 游戏业务 4Q24 营收为 28.7 亿美元，同比增长 56%，环比持平，走出前几个 季度的低迷期。随着全球 PC 出货量见底回暖，游戏业务未来有望保持复苏 态势。公司在 CES 上推出了 RTX 40 Super 系列 GPU，市场反馈良好，而 AIPC 对计算能力的需求有望提高公司 GPU 在 PC 端的市占率。另外，公司于近期 推出了 Chat with RTX，借助 RTX GPU 强大运算能力实现大模型本地化部署， 可以帮助用户检索、分析保存在本地的文件，进而助力开启 AIPC 换机周期。 我们看好 2024 年 PC 市场温和复苏。 汽车业务 4Q24 营收为 2.8 亿美元，同比下降 4%，环比增长 8%；全年汽车业 务营收 11 亿美元，首次超过 10 亿美元大关。理想、长城、吉利、小米等龙 头新能源车企纷纷宣布与英伟达展开合作，使用 NVIDIA Drive 来打造新一 代智驾汽车。虽然汽车业务占总营收比不足 2%，但未来有望随新能源汽车及 自动驾驶的全球普及而成为公司增长的第二曲线。 未来展望 1）公司预计 FY1Q25 营收将在 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [12][26]. Core Insights - The company achieved record high performance in FY24, with revenue reaching $60.92 billion, a year-over-year increase of 125.85%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of $29.76 billion, up 581.32% year-over-year [2][3]. - The data center segment showed strong growth, with revenue of $18.40 billion in Q4 FY24, a year-over-year increase of 408.96%, driven by demand from major cloud service providers [3][4]. - The company is actively expanding its presence in emerging sectors such as the industrial metaverse and electric vehicles, with significant partnerships in the automotive industry [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY2023, the company reported revenue of $26.97 billion and net profit of $4.37 billion. Projections for FY2024 estimate revenue of $60.92 billion and net profit of $29.76 billion [2][12]. - The company expects Q1 FY2025 revenue to be around $24 billion, with a gross margin of 76.3% [4]. - The projected net profit for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 is $59.61 billion, $85.74 billion, and $107.70 billion, respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [12]. Key Financial Metrics - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 69.24% in FY2024, with a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) from $1.75 in FY2023 to $11.90 in FY2024 [2][12]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 386.17 in FY2023 to 56.68 in FY2024, reflecting improved profitability [2][12].

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 02 月 26 日 英伟达（NASDAQ:NVDA） 正式入局具身智能领域，加速推动机器人智能化发展 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------|-----------|-----------|------------|------------|------------|---------------------------------|--------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 财务指标 | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025E | FY2026E | FY2027E | 买入（维持评级） | | | 营业收入（百万美元） | 26,974.00 | 60,922.00 | 122,952.78 | 167,191.19 | 215,241.94 | 股票信息 | | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | 0.22 | 125.85 | ...

英伟达（NVDA） 更新报告 日 第一上海证券有限公司 www.mystockhk.com 本季度公司收入为 221 亿美元，高于彭博一致 预期的 204 亿美元。 2024 财年 Q4 公司收入为 221 亿美元，同比增长 265.3%，远高于 200 亿美元的公司指 引与 204 亿美元的彭博一致预期。毛利率为 76%，环比提升 2pts，超过公司指引中值 的 75%。 Non-GAAP 摊薄每股收益 为 5.16 美元，高于彭博 一致预期的 4.62 美元 资料来源：公司资料，第一上海 资料来源：公司资料，第一上海 本季度公司来自中国的收入大幅下降，目前中国的收入占比为中个位数。目前符合美 国出口许可的产品已经向中国发货。 2024 年 2 月 图表 3: 发布 H200 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------|--------- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [2] Core Insights - The company's fundamentals have exceeded expectations in multiple areas, with a clearer outlook for its hardware business [2] - The performance and guidance have surpassed expectations, with Q1 revenue guidance set at $240 billion ±5, which is also above market expectations [2] - Supply and demand dynamics are stronger than anticipated, as the company faces a surge in demand that its supply chain cannot currently meet, especially following the release of new products [2] - The inference business is performing better than expected, with 40% of FY24 revenue coming from inference-related activities, alleviating previous concerns about this segment [2] Financial Performance - For FY24, the company reported total revenue of $60.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 126%, and a Non-GAAP net profit of $32.3 billion, up 286% year-on-year [5] - In Q4 FY24, the company achieved revenue of $22.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 265% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22%, with a Non-GAAP net profit of $12.8 billion, up 491% year-on-year [5] - The forecast for Non-GAAP net profit for FY25 and FY26 has been raised to $62.1 billion and $66.8 billion, respectively, with a projected Non-GAAP net profit of $74.3 billion for FY27 [6] Key Financial Ratios - The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 32 for FY25, 29 for FY26, and 26 for FY27 based on the closing price on February 23 [6] - The return on invested capital (ROIC) is projected to be 97% for FY25 and 100% for FY26, indicating strong profitability [9] - The gross margin is expected to be 75% for FY25 and 74% for FY26, reflecting the company's strong pricing power [9] Cash Flow Projections - Operating cash flow is projected to increase significantly from $28.1 billion in FY25 to $76.7 billion in FY27 [8] - The company is expected to maintain a positive cash flow trend, with net cash increases projected for the upcoming years [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [25] Core Insights - The company's performance continues to reach new highs, driven by a surge in demand for computing power, particularly in data centers, which is expected to persist beyond 2024 [2][23] - The data center business revenue reached $18.4 billion, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 27% and a year-over-year increase of 409% [3][23] - The company is well-positioned as a leading AI chip manufacturer, benefiting from the acceleration of large models and commercial applications based on AI [2] Revenue Analysis - Data center revenue: $18.4 billion, QoQ +27%, YoY +409% - Gaming revenue: $2.9 billion, QoQ +0%, YoY +56% - Professional visualization revenue: $463 million, QoQ +11%, YoY +105% - Autonomous driving revenue: $281 million, QoQ +8%, YoY -4% [3] Profitability Metrics - GAAP gross margin: 76%, Non-GAAP gross margin: 76.7%, both showing quarter-over-quarter increases [3] - GAAP net profit: $12.285 billion, QoQ +33%, YoY +769% [3] - Non-GAAP net profit: $12.839 billion, QoQ +28%, YoY +491% [3] Earnings Forecast - The company has raised its net profit forecast for 2024 and 2025 to $60.13 billion and $87.993 billion, respectively, reflecting increases of 20% and 24% [3] - Corresponding EPS estimates are $24.35 for 2024 and $35.62 for 2025 [3] Market Position - The company is recognized as a global leader in AI chip manufacturing, with a significant contribution from large cloud service providers accounting for over half of the data center revenue [3][2]

[Table_StockNameRptType] NVDIA（NVDA.O） 公司研究/美股点评 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------|---------------|---------| | | | | | [Table_Rank] 投资评级：增持（维持） | | | | 报告日期： | 2024-02-22 | | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价 ( 美元 ) | | 674 | | 近 12 个月最高 / | 最低 ( 美元 ) | 746/207 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | | 25 | | 流通股本 ( 亿股 ) | | 25 | | 流通股比例 (%) | | 100.00 | | 总市值 ( 亿美元 ) | | 16666 | | 流通市值 ( 亿美元 | ) | 16666 | | | | | 英伟达(NVIDIA)-行情图 -3.00% 47.00% 97.00% 147.00% 197.00% 英伟达(NVIDIA) 纳斯达克 NVIDIA 深度|受益数据中心 AI 芯片高 景气度，上游供应 ...

图表 15: 英伟达专业可视化主要产品 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 英伟达（NVIDIA）由黄仁勋、Chris Malachowsky 和 Curtis Priem 创立于 1993 年。 ⚫ 在游戏显卡赛道，JPR 数据显示，英伟达占据了 PC 独立显卡的 80%以上出货量。 收购了 ATI 的 AMD 当前则在 10%左右的市占率浮动。 P.7 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 图表 21: 自动驾驶场景仿真: GAIA-1 模型框架 . 资料来源：公司公告，国盛证券研究所 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% - 10,000 20,000 30,000 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 NVIDIA年度收入构成：百万美元 数据中心 游戏 专业可视化 自动驾驶 其他 yoy-数据中心 yoy-游戏 yoy-专业可视化 yoy-自动驾驶 图表 17: AI 训练需求增加: 更多国家开始加入 AI 年备竞赛 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------|-------| ...