Core Insights - Crocs stock has started to recover from a significant year-to-date decline, with shares down approximately 18% year to date despite a recent rebound [7] - Blueshift Asset Management has initiated a new position in Crocs, acquiring 48,877 shares valued at $4.08 million, representing 1.3% of the fund's reportable U.S. equity assets [2][3] Company Overview - Crocs offers a diverse range of casual footwear products, including clogs, sandals, slides, and accessories, and operates through a multi-channel model that includes wholesale distribution, retail stores, and e-commerce platforms [4][10] - The company targets a wide consumer base across men, women, and children in approximately 85 countries, with a presence in regions such as the Americas, Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa [5] Financial Performance - As of November 12, 2025, Crocs' stock price was $74.45, with a market capitalization of $4.18 billion, revenue of $4.07 billion, and net income of $182.55 million for the trailing twelve months (TTM) [3] - The acquisition of the casual footwear brand Heydude for approximately $2.5 billion in February 2022 has not yielded the expected immediate revenue growth, with Heydude's revenue dropping nearly 22% to $160 million in the third quarter of this year [6] Investment Activity - Blueshift Asset Management's investment in Crocs indicates a belief in the potential for recovery, as it has made Crocs a top holding during the third quarter [7][8]

Core Insights - HEYDUDE brand of Crocs, Inc. (CROX) is experiencing revenue challenges, with Q3 2025 revenues at $160 million, reflecting a 22% year-over-year decline [2][10] - The brand's sales are impacted by strategic wholesale rationalization and reduced performance marketing expenditures aimed at improving inventory health and brand positioning [2][5] Revenue Performance - HEYDUDE's revenue fell significantly due to deliberate cuts in wholesale exposure and performance marketing [10] - The company is focused on cleaning up excess inventory in North America, which involved accelerated returns and markdown allowances, negatively affecting Q3 revenue [5][10] Product Innovation - Product innovation is central to the turnaround strategy, with the Stretch Sox line outperforming legacy products, indicating better consumer engagement [3] - Upcoming products like the Stretch Jersey aim to broaden appeal across genders, while the Paul franchise is expected to penetrate the dress-casual sneaker market [4] Future Outlook - Despite current risks from subdued demand, early signs of stabilization in refreshed franchises suggest that ongoing product innovation could help revive HEYDUDE's revenue trends [6] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a projected earnings decline of 7.9% for 2025, followed by a growth of 3.9% in 2026 [12] Valuation Metrics - Crocs, Inc. trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 7.11X, significantly lower than the industry average of 17.88X, indicating potential undervaluation [9]

Core Viewpoint - There is growing concern about a potential stock market bubble in artificial intelligence (AI), leading investors to consider reducing their exposure to AI stocks and explore value stocks like Sprouts Farmers Market and Crocs [1][2]. Group 1: Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) - Sprouts Farmers Market has a market capitalization of $8 billion and is currently trading at $85.06, with a 53% drawdown from its highs earlier in 2025 [3][4]. - The company is experiencing slowing comparable-store sales growth, with expectations of 0%-2% year-over-year growth in the fourth quarter, following a strong growth of over 10% in the same period last year [4][5]. - Management anticipates a 7% growth in comparable-store sales for the entire year of 2025 and aims for low- to mid-single-digit growth in the long term, slightly outpacing inflation [6]. - Sprouts operates 464 stores and plans to expand at a 10% annual rate, providing a durable opportunity for sales growth over the next decade [7]. - The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio under 16, which is considered cheap for a company expected to grow at an above-average rate [8]. Group 2: Crocs (CROX) - Crocs has a market capitalization of $4 billion and is currently trading at $89.95, also experiencing a significant drawdown from its highs [10]. - The company reported a 9% year-over-year decline in sales in North America last quarter, but has shown resilience over the past two decades, particularly among younger consumers [12]. - Internationally, Crocs is performing well, with a 6% year-over-year revenue increase outside North America, which is expected to surpass its North American business soon [13]. - The stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of just 7, and management is actively repurchasing shares, having retired 2.4 million of its 52 million outstanding shares last quarter [14].

Core Viewpoint - Investors are currently overlooking value stocks like Crocs, which is trading at a low price relative to its earnings potential, as the focus shifts towards growth stocks, particularly in the AI sector [1] Company Overview - Crocs is trading at its lowest cash-flow multiple in five years, making it a potential value stock before 2026 [2] - The current stock price is $84.98, with a market cap of $4 billion and a gross margin of 59.08% [3] Financial Performance - Revenue for Crocs declined 3% year over year last quarter to $836 million, with the HeyDude brand down 22% to $160 million [4] - Crocs' trailing twelve-month revenue has been around $4 billion but is currently declining [4] - The stock is in a 56% drawdown, indicating a significant decline from its previous highs [5] Growth Opportunities - International revenue increased 6% last quarter to $389 million, indicating growth outside of North America [6] - Crocs has a free cash flow per share of $12.77, with a trailing price-to-free cash flow ratio below 7, suggesting a discounted valuation [7] Shareholder Returns - Management is accelerating share repurchases, which will enhance long-term growth in free cash flow per share and potentially drive the stock price higher [8] - Shares outstanding have decreased by 20% over the last five years, indicating a commitment to returning capital to shareholders [8] Market Position and Future Outlook - Crocs is currently trading at just over 6 times its trailing cash flow, with investors pricing in expectations of declining revenue [10] - The brand has a history of staying relevant and is now expanding globally, which could lead to a turnaround in revenue and cash flow [11] - If Crocs can regain growth, the stock may trade at a higher multiple, presenting a low downside risk with significant upside potential for investors [12]

Core Insights - Shanghai has transitioned from being a "trendsetter" to a "value-defining" city, where brand success is measured by excellence rather than novelty [11] - New consumer brands often undergo a process of "training in other cities" before entering Shanghai, allowing them to refine their offerings [3][4] - The competitive landscape in Shanghai demands brands to adapt and innovate to meet the high expectations of discerning consumers [5][6] Group 1: Brand Strategies - Emerging brands are increasingly using other cities as testing grounds before launching in Shanghai, which is seen as a challenging market due to high costs and consumer expectations [3][4] - Brands like "阿嬷手作" and "蜀宴赋" have successfully entered Shanghai after establishing themselves in other regions, demonstrating the effectiveness of this strategy [3][5] - The "异地练兵" approach allows brands to build a loyal customer base and refine their business models before facing the rigorous Shanghai market [3][4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Shanghai is viewed as a critical market for brands aiming for national and international recognition, often seen as a "crowning" location for brand expansion [4][5] - The city serves as both a testing ground and a platform for brands to connect with global resources, enhancing their market presence [7][8] - The evolving consumer preferences in Shanghai emphasize the need for brands to provide unique and refined experiences rather than just new offerings [11] Group 3: Consumer Expectations - Shanghai consumers are known for their high standards, which require brands to not only innovate but also ensure that their offerings are well-executed [4][6] - The shift from "people finding goods" to "goods finding people" highlights the importance of creating engaging experiences that resonate with consumers [6][10] - Brands must adapt their products and services to align with local tastes and preferences, as seen in the modifications made by "蜀宴赋" to cater to Shanghai's consumer base [6][8]

Core Insights - The holiday sales season for 2025-26 in the U.S. has begun, with Thanksgiving and Black Friday being critical days for consumer spending, which is a key indicator of economic conditions and consumer behavior [2][3] Company Summaries Crocs Inc. (CROX) - Crocs has a Zacks Rank of 1 and has seen significant growth in brand awareness through collaborations and product innovations, appealing to a broad demographic [8] - The company is refreshing its product lines and has upcoming launches that are generating consumer interest, with an expected revenue growth rate of 0.4% and earnings growth rate of 3.9% for the next year [11] - The short-term average price target for Crocs represents an increase of 11.2% from its last closing price of $83.07 [11] On Holding AG (ONON) - On Holding also holds a Zacks Rank of 1, providing innovative footwear and sports apparel, with an expected revenue growth rate of 21.2% and earnings growth rate of 79.8% for the next year [12][13] - The short-term average price target for On Holding indicates a potential increase of 45.3% from its last closing price of $41.78 [13] Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL) - Ralph Lauren has a Zacks Rank of 2 and has outperformed the industry, driven by its strategic "Next Great Chapter: Accelerate Plan" focusing on brand elevation and operational agility [14][16] - The company is investing in digital transformation, enhancing consumer engagement, with an expected revenue growth rate of 9.5% and earnings growth rate of 25% for the current year [17] - The short-term average price target for Ralph Lauren suggests a 3.3% increase from its last closing price of $364.50 [17] Kontoor Brands Inc. (KTB) - Kontoor Brands, with a Zacks Rank of 2, is a lifestyle apparel company with an expected revenue growth rate of 11.3% and earnings growth rate of 5.3% for the next year [18][19] - The short-term average price target for Kontoor Brands indicates a potential increase of 31% from its last closing price of $73.69 [19] Boot Barn Holdings Inc. (BOOT) - Boot Barn Holdings has a Zacks Rank of 2 and operates in the lifestyle retail sector, with an expected revenue growth rate of 16.2% and earnings growth rate of 20.5% for the current year [20][22] - The short-term average price target for Boot Barn suggests a 15% increase from its last closing price of $195.76 [22] Industry Insights - The Zacks Retail – Apparel and Shoes industry is currently ranked in the top 26% of Zacks Industry Rank, indicating a favorable outlook compared to the broader market [7] - Consumer confidence is under pressure due to macroeconomic uncertainties, leading to a shift towards value-driven purchases, impacting demand in the apparel and footwear sectors [5][6]

Core Insights - Crocs, Inc. is focusing on innovation to regain momentum in a challenging demand environment, emphasizing product expansion and partnerships to enhance consumer excitement and brand relevance [2][3][5] Financial Performance - The third-quarter fiscal 2025 results exceeded expectations but did not meet the company's internal benchmarks, prompting a renewed focus on product innovation and brand management [3] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 earnings indicates a year-over-year decline of 7.9%, while fiscal 2026 shows a projected growth of 3.9% [11] Product Strategy - Crocs is expanding its product lines, including new Clog franchises like the Crafted Clog and the Echo franchise, which includes successful products like Echo RO and Echo 2.0 [3][9] - The sandals segment outperformed the overall portfolio, gaining market share with strong demand for products like Brooklyn, Gataway, and Miami [4][9] Marketing and Engagement - Collaborations with influencers, such as the Cozzzy "Unfurgettable" line with Millie Bobby Brown, have driven significant social media engagement and product growth [4][9] - The company is leveraging digital strategies, particularly on platforms like TikTok, to enhance global engagement and support long-term growth [5] Valuation Metrics - Crocs shares have declined by 33% year-to-date, compared to an 18.9% decline in the industry, with a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) [6] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for Crocs is 5.85X, significantly lower than the industry average of 15.79X, indicating potential undervaluation [7]

Core Insights - Crocs has appointed Rupert Campbell as president of its struggling Heydude brand, effective immediately, as part of a strategic move to revitalize the brand's performance [5] - Heydude experienced a significant decline in Q3 sales, dropping nearly 22% year over year to $160 million, with wholesale revenue falling more than 38% [2] - The adjusted gross margin for Heydude decreased by 560 basis points to 42.3%, influenced by tariff challenges and fixed costs, although this was somewhat mitigated by an increase in average selling price [2] Company Performance - The decline in Heydude's sales is attributed to a strategic decision to eliminate underperforming wholesale partnerships, which may present a longer-term opportunity for recovery [3] - Despite the challenges, the recent sales report exceeded expectations, indicating that the situation may not be as dire as it appears [3] - Campbell's previous experience at Adidas, where he managed a market generating over $6 billion in revenue, is seen as a positive factor for his new role at Heydude [4] Leadership Changes - Rupert Campbell has been with Crocs since March, previously serving as senior vice president and chief commercial officer, where he was responsible for the brand's global commercial strategy [5] - Andrew Rees, CEO of Crocs, has expressed confidence in Campbell's ability to drive the marketing and commercial strategy for Heydude [4]

Core Viewpoint - Crocs, Inc. has promoted Rupert Campbell to Executive Vice President and President of the HEYDUDE brand, effective immediately, as part of its strategy to drive long-term global growth for the brand [1][2]. Company Overview - Crocs, Inc. is a leader in innovative casual footwear, combining comfort and style, with products sold in over 80 countries through various channels [3]. Leadership Changes - Rupert Campbell joined Crocs in March 2025 as Senior Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer for HEYDUDE, where he was responsible for the global commercial strategy [1]. - Prior to Crocs, Campbell was President of adidas North America, managing over $6 billion in revenue and a team of more than 10,000 [2]. Strategic Vision - Andrew Rees, CEO of Crocs, expressed confidence in Campbell's ability to guide HEYDUDE towards scalable global growth, highlighting his consumer-first mindset and operational excellence [2]. - Campbell aims to deepen the connection with consumers and turn strategic plans into reality through collaboration and creativity [2].

Core Viewpoint - No Street GP LP has fully exited its position in Crocs, indicating a lack of confidence in the company's future performance as reflected in its recent financial results and guidance [1][2][6]. Company Overview - Crocs, Inc. is a global leader in casual footwear, operating in over 85 countries with a focus on product innovation, direct-to-consumer expansion, and operational efficiency [5]. - The company's market capitalization is $3.9 billion, with a revenue of $4.1 billion and a net income of $182.5 million for the trailing twelve months (TTM) [4]. Recent Performance - In the third quarter, Crocs reported a revenue decline of 6.2% to $996 million, with HEYDUDE brand sales dropping significantly by 21.6% [7]. - The gross margin decreased by 110 basis points, and adjusted earnings per share fell by 18.9% to $2.92 [7]. - Management has provided disappointing guidance, expecting a further revenue decline of about 8% in the fourth quarter, primarily due to a mid-20% drop in HEYDUDE sales [7]. Investment Implications - The decision by No Street GP to liquidate its entire position in Crocs suggests that the risk-reward profile no longer aligns favorably for investors, especially given the fund's focus on high-growth companies [6]. - Despite Crocs' brand strength and cash generation capabilities, the current growth stagnation and negative near-term guidance indicate potential volatility ahead [9].