Financial Highlights - All-time high 2Q revenue of $1.8 billion[6] - Highest 2Q Adjusted EBIT margin of +10.5% over the last 10 years[6] - Backlog reached a new record of $29.7 billion[6] - Adjusted Net Results excludes Eve is -$5 million[49] - Shareholder remuneration: Dividends of R$51.4 million and Interest on Equity of R$142.8 million[53] Operational Performance - 2Q deliveries were 30% higher year-over-year[6] - Book-to-bill ratio is around 2x across all business units[6] - Commercial Aviation revenue increased by 4% year-over-year with an EBIT of $25 million[18] - Executive Aviation revenue increased significantly by 64% year-over-year with an EBIT of $80 million[21] - Defense & Security revenue increased by 18% year-over-year with an EBIT of $20 million[25] - Services & Support revenue increased by 13% year-over-year with an EBIT of $71 million[27] Strategic Developments - SAS ordered 45 E195-E2 aircraft, with 10 optional units[7] - SkyWest purchased 60 E175 aircraft, with 50 additional options[7] - Portugal made its 6th KC-390 purchase, along with 10 new options, and Lithuania selected the KC-390[7] US Market Focus - Embraer forecasts $21 billion in US imports and $13 billion in exports by 2030, resulting in an $8 billion trade surplus for the US[15]

Core Insights - Embraer S.A. reported its second quarter 2025 earnings results, achieving record revenues and significant growth in various segments [1]. Financial Performance - Total revenues for 2Q25 reached US$1,819 million, marking a 22% year-over-year increase, the highest ever for a second quarter [4]. - Adjusted EBIT for the quarter was US$191.8 million, with a margin of 10.5%, up from 9.3% in 2Q24 [4]. - Adjusted free cash flow, excluding Eve, was negative at US$(161.6) million, as the company prepared for increased aircraft deliveries in upcoming quarters [4]. Aircraft Deliveries - Embraer delivered a total of 61 aircraft in 2Q25, which included 19 commercial jets (10 E2s and 9 E1s), 38 executive jets (21 light and 17 medium), and 4 defense-related aircraft, representing a 30% increase compared to the 47 aircraft delivered in the same quarter last year [4]. Order Backlog and Guidance - The firm order backlog reached an all-time high of US$29.7 billion in 2Q25 [4]. - The company reiterated its 2025 guidance, expecting commercial aviation deliveries between 77 and 85 aircraft and executive aviation deliveries between 145 and 155 aircraft, with total revenues projected in the US$7.0 to US$7.5 billion range [4].

Core Insights - Embraer S.A. (ERJ) is set to release its second-quarter 2025 results on August 5, with an expected revenue of $1.67 billion, reflecting an 11.8% increase year-over-year [1][10][11] - The company has a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 150.60%, indicating strong performance expectations [1] Commercial Aviation Segment - Aircraft deliveries in the Commercial Aviation segment remained flat year-over-year, likely having a neutral impact on second-quarter sales [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for this segment's revenues is $551.4 million, indicating a decline of 0.5% from the year-ago quarter [4] Executive Aviation Segment - The Executive Aviation segment is projected to see a revenue increase of 25.6% year-over-year, with an estimated revenue of $422 million, driven by a 40.7% rise in executive jet deliveries [5][11] Defense & Security Segment - Revenues from the Defense & Security segment are expected to increase by 18.7% year-over-year, with an estimated revenue of $222 million, supported by higher A-29 Super Tucano aircraft sales [6][11] Services & Support Segment - The Services & Support segment is anticipated to grow by 14% year-over-year, with an estimated revenue of $460.6 million, bolstered by increased demand for aftermarket aircraft solutions and MRO activities [7][8][11] Overall Financial Performance - The overall revenue performance is expected to be strong across three of the four major business segments, contributing positively to the company's bottom line [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ERJ's earnings is pegged at 47 cents per share, indicating a 6.8% increase from the prior-year figure [12]

Group 1 - The U.S. has imposed tariffs of up to 50% on most Brazilian goods in response to political persecution of former President Bolsonaro, but key industries like aviation, energy, and orange juice are exempted, alleviating worst fears in Brazil's business community [1] - Brazilian Finance Minister Seron stated that the outcome is milder than expected, indicating that the worst-case scenario has not materialized [1] - The tariffs are directly linked to Bolsonaro's trial regarding allegations of attempting to overturn the 2022 presidential election results, with additional sanctions imposed on the Brazilian Supreme Court judge overseeing the case [1] Group 2 - The exemption from tariffs includes critical export categories such as civilian aircraft, pig iron, precious metals, pulp, energy, and fertilizers, which is particularly important for Embraer, as 45% of its commercial aircraft and 70% of its executive jets are exported to the U.S. [1] - Analysts have warned that the tariffs could severely impact Suzano, one of the world's largest pulp producers, but market sentiment improved following the exemption announcement [1] - The former Brazilian Trade Minister Bahar cautioned that while some products are exempt, Brazil exports approximately 3,000 items to the U.S., and the remaining products will still face actual impacts [1] Group 3 - Notably, the executive order does not exempt beef and coffee exports, which are significant agricultural products for Brazil, with the Brazilian beef export organization Abiec previously indicating that tariffs would make exports to the U.S. "unsustainable" [2] - Despite the exemption for "energy and related products," several energy companies operating in Brazil have paused crude oil shipments to the U.S. due to policy uncertainty, with the Brazilian Petroleum Association stating that the industry is monitoring the situation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recommendation is to buy shares of Brazilian aircraft manufacturer Embraer (ERJ), highlighting it as a strong contrarian idea due to the impending 50% tariffs imposed by the US on Brazil starting August 1st, which will significantly impact Embraer [1]. Group 1 - Embraer is identified as the most affected company by the upcoming tariffs, suggesting a potential investment opportunity despite the negative market sentiment [1]. - The analysis is backed by over 5 years of experience in equity analysis in Latin America, indicating a depth of knowledge in the region's market dynamics [1]. - The research aims to provide clients with in-depth insights to facilitate informed investment decisions, emphasizing the importance of thorough analysis in the investment process [1].

Core Viewpoint - The president of Embraer, Francisco Gomes Neto, expressed concerns that potential U.S. tariffs could lead to order cancellations and layoffs, resulting in losses amounting to billions of dollars for the company [1] Group 1: Financial Impact - Embraer's internal estimates suggest that a 50% tariff would increase the cost by 50 million Brazilian Reais (approximately 6.423 million RMB) for each aircraft [1] - The company anticipates negative consequences such as order cancellations, delivery delays, reduced investments, and potential layoffs due to the tariffs [1] Group 2: Market Position and Sales - Embraer is the third-largest commercial aircraft manufacturer globally, following Boeing and Airbus [1] - The U.S. is a major export market for Embraer, with sales of commercial and executive jets to the U.S. accounting for 45% and 70% of the company's total sales, respectively [1] Group 3: Customer Relations - American Airlines has ordered 74 jets from Embraer, with the contract valid until 2032; however, they are considering postponing deliveries until the tariff situation is resolved [1]

Core Insights - Porter Airlines and Embraer CAE Training Services (ECTS) are expanding pilot training operations with a new Embraer E195-E2 full-flight simulator in Montreal, enhancing local job opportunities and supporting the airline's growth [1][2][4] Group 1: Company Developments - The new simulator will increase training capacity for Porter's expanding fleet, which has already received 46 aircraft with expectations of up to 100 [2] - The simulator features the CAE Prodigy visual system, developed in Montreal, providing advanced training technology for pilots [1][3] Group 2: Strategic Partnerships - The partnership between Porter, Embraer, and CAE aims to elevate aviation safety and training standards, with CAE's expertise ensuring high-quality training for pilots [3][4] - ECTS operates additional simulators in Singapore and Madrid, indicating a global training network for the E2 aircraft [4] Group 3: Industry Context - Embraer is a leading manufacturer of commercial jets with a significant global presence, having delivered over 9,000 aircraft since its founding [7][8] - CAE has a long history in aviation training and simulation, with approximately 13,000 employees across 240 sites in over 40 countries, emphasizing its commitment to safety and innovation [9]

Core Insights - The demand for next-generation air transport solutions, particularly eVTOL aircraft, has significantly increased due to urban congestion and new transportation technologies, attracting investor interest in companies like Eve Holding and Joby Aviation [1][2]. Company Analysis Eve Holding (EVEX) - Eve Holding, a spin-off from Embraer, is utilizing its parent company's aerospace expertise and has completed various tests for its eVTOL aircraft, with flight tests expected to start soon [2]. - The company has a growing backlog of Letters of Intent (LOIs), including a recent agreement for up to 54 eVTOLs, indicating strong commercial demand in markets like Brazil and the U.S. [4]. - Eve anticipates the commercialization of its eVTOL services to begin in 2026, with initial revenue generation from eVTOL sales expected in 2027 [5]. - As of March 31, 2025, Eve had $0.06 billion in cash, no short-term debt, and $0.14 billion in long-term debt, suggesting financial viability in the near term [6]. - Eve has outperformed Joby in earnings surprises, beating estimates twice in the past four quarters [10][17]. Joby Aviation (JOBY) - Joby Aviation's growth is supported by strategic partnerships and a strong certification timeline, with recent progress in aircraft certification [7]. - The company has partnered with Virgin Atlantic to launch air taxi services in the UK, starting from London Heathrow and Manchester [7]. - Joby has conducted successful piloted flights in Dubai and plans to launch commercial operations there early next year [8]. - The company is expanding its production capacity in Marina, CA, aiming to produce up to 24 aircraft per year, and is also ramping up operations in Dayton, OH [9]. - Joby has not beaten earnings estimates in any of the past four quarters, indicating challenges in financial performance [19]. Market Comparison - The eVTOL market shows significant potential, with both Eve and Joby being key players, but challenges remain regarding industry viability and public acceptance [20][21]. - Eve Holding currently holds an edge over Joby Aviation, with a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) compared to Joby's 4 (Sell) [22].

Core Insights - Embraer reported a record backlog of US$29.7 billion in Q2 2025, marking the highest level in the company's history [1] Backlog by Segment - Commercial Aviation backlog reached US$13.1 billion, up 31% quarter-over-quarter (qoq) and 16% year-over-year (yoy) [2][5] - Executive Aviation backlog was US$7.4 billion, reflecting a 62% increase yoy but a slight decrease of 2% qoq [9] - Services & Support backlog increased to US$4.9 billion, up 55% yoy and 5% qoq [15] - Defense & Security backlog reached US$4.3 billion, doubling from the previous year and up 3% qoq [10][11] Deliveries - Embraer delivered 61 aircraft in Q2 2025, a 30% increase from 47 jets delivered in Q2 2024 and more than double the 30 aircraft delivered in Q1 2025 [2] - Executive Aviation delivered 38 jets, a 41% increase from 27 jets in Q2 2024 [9] - Commercial Aviation delivered 19 aircraft, consistent with Q2 2024 deliveries [6] Notable Orders - SkyWest placed a firm order for 60 E175 aircraft with rights for 50 additional units [4] - Scandinavian Airlines (SAS) ordered 45 E195-E2 aircraft, marking the largest jet order from a manufacturer in 30 years [4] Performance Metrics - The book-to-bill ratio for Commercial Aviation was 1.8x over the past 12 months [4][5] - The E175 model achieved a milestone of 1,000 units sold since its launch in 2005 [5] Future Outlook - The company anticipates improved production levels in the second half of 2025 and into 2026 [7]

巴西航空工业公司CEO：我们相信巴西和美国能够达成双边协议。关税对收入的影响可能与新冠疫情的 影响类似。 ...