Geopolitical Risk - German Finance Minister criticized China's export controls on rare earths [1] - The industry hopes for de-escalation after the meeting between US and Chinese Presidents [1]

Trump says high tariffs threatened by both US and China are `not sustainable' https://t.co/IgU3glTc2m ...

BREAKING: 🇺🇸🇨🇳 Trump said "no" when asked if the tariffs on China will remain. https://t.co/rOcvy126jz ...

Geopolitical Analysis - The report suggests that the US is undergoing a strategic retreat, focusing on homeland defense while asking European NATO to fend for itself [3] - The analysis indicates a shift in global power, with the world economy decisively moving to Asia [5][6] - The report posits that the world's dominant military power is no longer Western, marking a significant change in the last 500+ years [6] Economic Concerns - The document highlights that the US business model of money printing relies on a global empire, with dollar inflation acting as a global tax [4] - It warns that a shrinking tax base due to US troop withdrawals and tariffs could lead to a 67-90% drop in the tax base, causing a significant decline in American living standards [4] - The analysis points to a sovereign debt crisis underway in America, Western Europe, and Japan, leading to a simultaneous decline of all parts of the empire [5] Technological and Ideological Shifts - The report proposes that the Internet could be the seed for civilizational rebirth after the decline of the dollar empire [10] - It argues that China, while a goods exporter, is an idea importer, lacking a conceptual operating system for global adoption [14][15] - The document suggests that the Internet will generate universalist ideas that appeal to many, providing alternative ideologies to Chinese nationalism outside China [18] Future Balance of Power - The analysis envisions a future with a billion-person Chinese superstate alongside a thousand million-person network states, offering alternatives to China [19] - It suggests that the existence of these alternative societies wouldn't provoke China and that China wouldn't gain from conquering them [21] - The report concludes that the creation of alternative societies is one model for how the Internet may eventually balance China [18][22]

China has displaced Germany in the top ten of a new global ranking—and the Swiss are on a roll https://t.co/7HpnUIbeIZ ...

China has sorted its own financial plumbing. Now it can transact with others without touching the dollar system through a variety of means. Here’s what that means for the yuan https://t.co/BZEK9gx6PG ...

Economic Outlook & Trade Tensions - US-China trade tensions, including export controls and potential tariffs, pose risks to the economic outlook [1] - Asia Pacific growth is forecasted at 45% this year, decreasing to 41% next year, but is subject to downside risks due to trade tensions [2] - Global economic growth is projected at 31% in the baseline scenario, but could be 03% percentage points lower with greater tariffs and supply chain disruptions [3][4] China's Economic Impact - China's exports to the US have declined sharply since 2017-2018, while exports to the rest of Asia, especially ASEAN, have increased [6][7] - Deflationary pressures in China are leading to lower export prices, impacting countries around it, including ASEAN [8][9] - Weak domestic demand in China exacerbates the issue, suggesting that boosting consumption and fixing the real estate sector could alleviate the spillover effects [9][10] Policy Recommendations for China - China provides approximately 4% of policy support every year for priority sectors, including EVs [11] - The report calls for China to scale back such policies and remove trade and investment restrictions to restructure growth and reduce internal and external imbalances [12]

At first that may be what’ll happen.But think about how the US was balanced for decades by the USSR. And during that period, the US was a better actor than the USSR. West Germany was better off than East Germany, South Korea was more prosperous than North Korea, and in general the US strengthened its allies while the Soviets didn’t.However, once the USSR fell, the US gradually became unbalanced. After 1991, it invaded too many countries and printed too much money — both to its own citizens’ detriment and to ...

China can withstand American pressure much better today than just five years ago. But it is pure hubris for the Communist Party to depict China’s economic weaknesses as a mere squall https://t.co/c8vrybu0uG ...

China’s economy likely expanded at the slowest in a year last quarter despite a boom in exports, a disconnect the Communist Party may move to rectify by championing higher consumption when it convenes for a key meeting next week https://t.co/vMsIs9kOxm ...