Tenaris (NYSE:TS) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 19, 2026 07:30 AM ET Company ParticipantsCarlos Gómez Álzaga - CFOGabriel Podskubka - COOGiovanni Sardagna - Investor Relations OfficerGuillermo Moreno - President, U.S. OperationsPaolo Rocca - Chairman and CEOConference Call ParticipantsAlessandro Pozzi - Senior Equity Research AnalystArun Jayaram - Senior Equity Research AnalystJamie Franklin - VP of Energy Equity Research and Senior AnalystKévin Roger - Head of Energy Equipment & Services and Senior Equity ...

Summary of LNG Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) market, highlighting a significant supply wave expected to last seven years, starting in 2025 and peaking around 2030 [4][25]. Key Points Supply Dynamics - 2025 is projected to be the first year of the largest global LNG supply wave, with supply expected to average 431 million tonnes per annum (mtpa), slightly below the previous expectation of 433 mtpa [4][5]. - The U.S. is anticipated to lead the supply growth, with a notable ramp-up at the Plaquemines facility contributing to the overall supply despite some disruptions and delays in other regions [4][29]. - Global LNG supply growth from 2025 to 2030 is expected to increase by 193 mtpa, which is 45% of the 2025 global supply, significantly outpacing Asia's demand growth of 144 mtpa [4][7]. Price Forecasts - A bearish cycle for European natural gas prices (TTF) and LNG (JKM) is anticipated, with forecasts suggesting prices could drop below $5/mmBtu by 2028/29, more than 50% lower than current prices [4][66]. - The JKM-TTF spread has turned negative, indicating that JKM prices have not fully adjusted to the recent TTF price rally [12][20]. Demand Insights - Asia's LNG demand is expected to rise by 14 mtpa in 2026, driven by a 5 mtpa increase in China and a 7 mtpa rise in Southeast Asia [41][43]. - The demand response to low gas prices is estimated to be over 40 mtpa from China alone, indicating a potential shift in consumption patterns [4]. Regional Supply Challenges - Structural supply losses are anticipated from Algeria and Indonesia due to rising domestic energy demands, with Algeria's export forecast lowered by 1 mtpa for future years [4][34]. - Delays in export capacity starts in the U.S., Canada, Congo, and Australia have led to a slower start for global LNG supply in 2026, although recovery is expected by the second half of the year [4][10]. Future Projects - All but one of the supply projects in the forecast through 2029 have reached a Final Investment Decision (FID), indicating strong commitment to future supply growth [4][3]. - Upcoming liquefaction projects are expected to increase global LNG supply by approximately 50% relative to 2024 by 2030 [4][36]. Additional Insights - The U.S. LNG export contracts are projected to remain profitable only through 2027, with significant implications for future export strategies [22][24]. - The conference highlighted the importance of monitoring the timing of liquefaction projects, as they are critical to balancing supply and demand in the LNG market [4][66]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current and future state of the LNG market.

Core Viewpoint - ADNOC Gas operates within a state-led energy system, which provides advantages such as credit perception and access to domestic demand, but also entails significant upfront costs and execution risks [1][2][12] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, ADNOC Gas reported a net profit of $1.34 billion, an 8% increase, despite a 6% decrease in revenue to $23.47 billion [2][3] - The company's full-year net income for 2025 reached $5.2 billion, a 3% increase from FY2024, highlighting strong margin management despite a 4% revenue decline [3] Capital Expenditure and Strategy - ADNOC Gas's capital expenditure (capex) surged to $3.6 billion in 2025, a 98% increase from the previous year, raising concerns about execution risk and project discipline [2][11] - The company is transitioning from a cash-harvesting phase to a capex-heavy industrial buildout, which may challenge its ability to maintain dividend distributions [2][11] Dividend Policy - ADNOC Gas confirmed a 2025 dividend of $3.584 billion, with a policy to increase per-share dividends by 5% annually over several years [4][12] - The company is positioned as a dividend engine within the ADNOC group, which aims to maintain aggressive dividend payouts through 2030 [4] Market Position and Risks - ADNOC Gas is perceived as a stable utility with a strong domestic demand, but analysts question the sustainability of its profitability amid declining revenues [2][8] - The company faces potential risks from project cost increases, schedule delays, and the need for governance and execution discipline under a dual mandate of growth and yield [5][12] Expansion and Future Outlook - ADNOC Gas is pursuing major investment programs, including the Rich Gas Development project, to enhance processing capacity and efficiency [6][7] - The company's future performance will depend on its ability to balance capital spending with dividend commitments while navigating the complexities of a state-driven industrial strategy [10][11]

ADNOC and Abu Dhabi National Energy Company PJSC (TAQA) have entered into a 27-year Utilities Purchase Agreement that will underpin the development of the TA’ZIZ Industrial Chemicals Zone in Ruwais Industrial City, a cornerstone project in the UAE’s push to expand downstream manufacturing and industrial self-sufficiency. The long-term deal covers both the construction phase and the offtake period for a central utilities platform that will supply electricity grid connectivity, steam, process cooling, and ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for European M&A activity, expecting continued momentum into 2026, with a strong case for consolidation across various sectors [3][4][6]. Core Insights - European M&A deal value increased by 12% in 2025, reaching approximately $820 billion, driven by a shift in investor asset allocation towards Europe [3]. - Corporate profitability in Europe has risen by 50% from pre-2008 levels, yet many companies remain sub-scale, indicating a strong need for acquisitions to build capabilities [5]. - A robust pipeline of announced but uncompleted deals, along with favorable capital availability and regulatory conditions, suggests sustained M&A activity in 2026 [6]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Banking Sector - European banking M&A has seen a doubling in deal volumes since 2020, driven by restored profitability and regulatory support for consolidation [13]. - Banks are expected to generate over $500 billion in excess capital above regulatory minima over the next three years, which will be increasingly deployed in M&A [15]. 2. Asset Management - The asset and wealth management sector is facing consolidation due to profit margin pressures, with predictions of a 20% reduction in the number of asset managers by 2030 [17]. - M&A activity is expected to intensify, with 100 to 200 transactions anticipated annually in Europe [19]. 3. Telecommunications - The European telecom market is maturing, necessitating M&A for value-accretive deals amid high investment needs for 5G and fiber [20]. - The average EU operator has about 5 million subscribers, compared to 107 million in the US, highlighting the need for consolidation [20]. 4. Defense Sector - Military spending in Europe is projected to grow at approximately 9% annually through 2030, leading to increased demand for production capabilities [23]. - M&A is shifting towards acquiring production capabilities, with a focus on modernizing technical advantages [25]. 5. Logistics - The logistics sector is prioritizing transformative M&A strategies to address e-commerce growth and traditional mail network contraction [28]. - Acquirers are focusing on contract logistics and technology capabilities as core to deal value capture [31]. 6. Pharmaceuticals - Pharma dealmaking is becoming essential as companies face patent expirations and pipeline gaps, with a focus on high-value assets [33]. - Transaction activity is expected to be dominated by selective, de-risked acquisitions and structured deals to manage valuation risks [36]. 7. Chemicals - The chemical industry is leveraging M&A to refocus portfolios on specialty segments and secure cash flow amid economic challenges [37]. - Larger transactions are aimed at building global platforms and enhancing sustainability efforts [39]. 8. Insurance - M&A activity in the insurance sector is driven by private equity consolidation, accounting for about 90% of transactions by volume [42]. - The report anticipates continued acquisitions of specialty underwriting franchises by strategic buyers [45]. 9. Private Equity - European corporates hold approximately €2.6 trillion in cash, creating opportunities for trade buyers of private equity-backed assets [48]. - In 2026, over 1,500 European PE-backed assets, representing $760 billion in enterprise value, could potentially come to market [49]. 10. Portfolio Rebalancing - Portfolio rebalancing is becoming a core theme in European M&A as companies respond to economic headwinds and high capital costs [56]. - One-third of European corporates deliver returns below their cost of capital, indicating a need for divestitures of non-core assets [56].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 totaled $1.34 billion, contributing to a record full-year adjusted EBITDA of $4.83 billion, reflecting sustained momentum from the business system and positive performance in Industrial and Energy Technology (IET) [4][30] - Adjusted earnings per share rose to $0.78, resulting in a full-year adjusted EPS of $2.60, a 10% increase from 2024 [4] - Adjusted EBITDA margins for Q4 rose 30 basis points year-over-year to a record 18.1% [4] - For the full year, company-adjusted EBITDA margins increased by 90 basis points to a record of 17.4% [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - IET achieved record fourth-quarter order bookings of $4 billion, contributing to a full-year total of $14.9 billion, exceeding guidance [6] - IET margins increased by 160 basis points to 20% in Q4, while OFSE margins declined due to market conditions [4][35] - OFSE revenue fell 8% to $14.3 billion for the full year, with EBITDA of $2.62 billion resulting in resilient margins of 18.3% [37] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - LNG equipment orders in 2025 totaled $2.3 billion, with expectations for similar levels in 2026 [8] - New Energy orders reached a record $2 billion for the full year, well above the target of $1.4 billion to $1.6 billion [10] - Global LNG demand is expected to increase by at least 75% by 2040, primarily driven by growth across Asia [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on scaling its power systems portfolio to capture growing demand, particularly in data centers and renewable energy [3][19] - The pending acquisition of Chart is expected to enhance the power generation portfolio and enable integrated trigeneration solutions [28][49] - The company aims to achieve a 20% adjusted EBITDA margin by 2028, supported by ongoing productivity improvements and cost management initiatives [45][49] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The global macro environment remains resilient despite geopolitical uncertainties, with expectations for modest GDP growth in 2026 [14] - The company anticipates continued investment in generative AI and digital infrastructure, which will drive energy demand [14][15] - Management expressed confidence in achieving the three-year IET orders target of at least $40 billion, supported by strong order momentum [47] Other Important Information - The company generated robust free cash flow of $1.3 billion in Q4, contributing to a record annual free cash flow of $2.7 billion [7] - The balance sheet remains strong, with cash increasing to $3.7 billion and a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio decreasing to 0.5 times [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on your strategy for further enhancing your current capabilities or sustaining growth from Power Systems? - Management highlighted a multi-year growth cycle in global power demand, driven by factors such as data centers and electrification, with a market opportunity of $100 billion annually for Power Systems by 2030 [52][54] Question: Can you walk through some of the moving pieces within the $14.5 billion IET order intake guide for 2026? - Management indicated that the order outlook reflects strength across the IET portfolio, with LNG, gas infrastructure, and power systems expected to drive growth [63][65] Question: Can you discuss the margin outlook for IET and OFSE? - Management expects IET margins to reach 20% in 2026, driven by higher-margin backlog conversion and productivity improvements, while OFSE margins are projected to remain resilient despite macro headwinds [70][73]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the energy sector, particularly natural gas and nuclear power, amid a global CAPEX upcycle driven by increasing electricity demand from AI, multi-shoring, and electrification [1][2][3][8]. Core Insights - **Electricity Demand Growth**: Global electricity demand is expected to rise significantly, with projections indicating it will exceed 32% of final energy consumption by 2050, up from 20% in 2023 [8]. - **CAPEX Projections**: A bottom-up analysis estimates a total of US$1,800 billion in global CAPEX from 2025 to 2030, focusing on offshore oil and gas exploration and production (E&P), LNG terminals, and gas-fired and nuclear power plants [2][7]. - **Industry Trends**: Four key trends identified include: 1. Consolidation in the oil and gas EPC and service market, leading to concentration among upstream equipment and parts manufacturers. 2. Outsourcing of production processes by EPC and service providers to suppliers. 3. Demand for higher quality advanced metal parts due to rising applications in deep-sea oil and gas, LNG terminals, and nuclear power plants. 4. Increased global competitiveness of Chinese equipment and parts suppliers [3][7][88]. Investment Opportunities - **Recommended Stocks**: The report initiates coverage on Neway and Develop with Buy ratings, and also recommends Yingliu, Jereh, and Sinoseal as potential beneficiaries of the CAPEX upcycle [1][3][7]. - **Market Mispricing**: The market may be underestimating the investment implications of the current natural gas and nuclear upcycle for China's upstream equipment and component manufacturers [7]. Financial Metrics of Recommended Stocks - **Neway Valve (603699.SH)**: Market cap of US$6.276 billion, expected PE of 22, with 61% overseas sales and a projected EPS CAGR of 28% from 2025 to 2027 [4]. - **Develop (688377.SH)**: Market cap of US$1.126 billion, expected PE of 37, with 62% overseas sales and a projected EPS CAGR of 51% [4]. - **Yingliu (603308.SH)**: Market cap of US$5.317 billion, expected PE of 54, with 47% overseas sales and a projected EPS CAGR of 54% [4]. - **Jereh Oil Field (002353.SZ)**: Market cap of US$12.801 billion, expected PE of 24, with 45% overseas sales and a projected EPS CAGR of 21% [4]. - **Sinoseal (300470.SZ)**: Market cap of US$5.337 billion, expected PE of 31, with 10% overseas sales and a projected EPS CAGR of 33% [4]. Additional Insights - **Natural Gas and Nuclear Power**: Both sectors are expected to benefit from stable electricity generation capabilities, with natural gas producing countries ramping up exploration and production, particularly offshore [2][20]. - **Technological Advancements**: The report highlights advancements in production technology that have significantly lowered the break-even costs for offshore oil E&P, enhancing the attractiveness of investments in this area [36][49]. - **Nuclear Power Renaissance**: There is a noted global renaissance in nuclear fission power, particularly in China, with expectations of accelerated approvals and construction of nuclear projects [65][66]. Conclusion - The energy sector, particularly natural gas and nuclear power, presents substantial investment opportunities driven by increasing electricity demand and significant CAPEX growth. Chinese manufacturers with strong overseas exposure and advanced manufacturing capabilities are well-positioned to benefit from these trends [1][7][8].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported fourth quarter revenue of $9.7 billion, an increase of $817 million or 9% sequentially, with approximately $300 million attributed to the acquisition of ChampionX [20][19] - Adjusted EBITDA margin for the fourth quarter was 23.9%, an increase of 83 basis points sequentially, driven by strong digital performance [20][19] - Earnings per share, excluding charges and credits, was $0.78, reflecting a sequential increase of $0.09 but a decrease of $0.14 compared to the same quarter last year [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Digital revenue reached $825 million, a 25% sequential increase, with a pre-tax operating margin of 34%, up 557 basis points [21] - Reservoir Performance revenue was $1.7 billion, a 4% sequential increase, driven by strong international activity [21] - Production Systems revenue increased by 17% sequentially to $4.1 billion, reflecting a full quarter of activity from ChampionX [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Internationally, organic revenue increased by 7%, with North America seeing a 6% increase [6] - The Middle East showed increased activity, particularly in Saudi Arabia and UAE, contributing to the overall revenue growth [6][12] - The company noted a stabilization in global upstream activity, with key markets showing early signs of a rebound [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to leverage technology and digital solutions to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs for customers [10][11] - There is a focus on production recovery as a critical domain for value creation, integrating equipment with intelligent digital capabilities [11][66] - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in upstream investment, particularly in international markets, as supply and demand rebalance [10][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects near-term oversupply to exert downward pressure on commodity prices, but geopolitical uncertainties may provide a price floor [9][10] - The outlook for 2026 includes revenue expectations between $36.9 billion and $37.7 billion, driven by a full year of ChampionX activity and growth in digital operations [15][16] - The company is optimistic about the recovery in international markets, particularly in Latin America and the Middle East, while anticipating slight declines in Europe and Africa [15] Other Important Information - The company generated $3 billion in cash flow from operations during the fourth quarter, with free cash flow of $2.3 billion [22] - A total of $4 billion was returned to shareholders in 2025, with plans for a similar amount in 2026 through dividends and stock buybacks [26] - The company is the only international service provider actively operating in Venezuela, with plans to ramp up activities as conditions allow [18][56] Q&A Session Summary Question: CapEx trends and capital intensity - Management indicated a slight increase in CapEx to $2.5 billion for 2026, emphasizing improved capital efficiency compared to the past [31][32] Question: Customer mix and market opportunities in the Middle East - Management expressed confidence in national companies executing capital programs and noted a rebound in Saudi Arabian drilling activity [35][36] Question: Exit rate expectations for 2026 - Management expects the fourth quarter of 2026 to be higher than that of 2025, driven by international market recovery [45][46] Question: Digital business penetration - Management highlighted the potential for digital platforms to transform the industry, with increasing customer adoption of digital solutions [47][48] Question: Opportunities in Venezuela - Management noted readiness to ramp up operations in Venezuela, leveraging historical partnerships and existing assets [56][58] Question: Offshore market outlook - Management anticipates improved offshore activity in 2026, supported by FID and project developments in various regions [91][92]

Core Insights - McDermott has secured a significant contract from ADNOC for the Nasr-115 expansion project, which aims to increase oil production capacity to 115,000 barrels per day by 2027 [1][3] - The contract value is estimated to be between $750 million and $1 billion, involving the construction of various offshore structures and modifications [2][3] Project Details - The Nasr Phase II Full Field Development initiative is designed to enhance production from the Nasr/Al-Nasr oilfield, which began initial production in January 2015 [1][3] - The project will include the construction of two topside structures, a new manifold tower, a jacket, a bridge, and associated pipelines and cables [2] Strategic Importance - McDermott's involvement aligns with ADNOC's commitment to increasing offshore production capacity and supports the company's vision for sustainable energy growth [3] - The Nasr Phase II project previously aimed to elevate production from 22,000 barrels per day to 65,000 barrels per day by mid-2019 [4] Related Developments - ADNOC has also announced the final investment decision for the SARB Deep Gas Development, which will produce 200 million standard cubic feet of gas daily by the end of the decade [4] - The SARB project will utilize advanced technologies and AI for remote operations, optimizing existing infrastructure for better efficiency and safety [5]

Core Viewpoint - MOL Group has signed a heads of agreement with Gazprom Neft to acquire a 56.15% stake in Naftna Industrija Srbije, enhancing its control over Serbia's only oil refinery and expanding its operations in the central and south-eastern European energy market [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition will ensure sustained operations at the Pancevo refinery, providing a consistent energy supply to the region [2]. - The deal's completion is contingent upon fulfilling conditions outlined in the HoA, including necessary regulatory approvals from the US and Serbian governments, with a target deadline of March 31, 2026, for finalizing the sales and purchase agreement [5]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - MOL Group aims to strengthen energy security in Serbia and the region through collaboration with local refineries and strong partners [3]. - The Pancevo refinery, operational since 1968, has a refining capacity of approximately 4.8 million tonnes per year and produces petroleum products that meet EU standards [4]. Group 3: Future Collaborations - MOL Group is in discussions with ADNOC from the UAE regarding a potential minority stake in NIS, while maintaining majority ownership [4].