ab 27 August 2025 Global Research China Equity Strategy Marketing feedback and the top 10 questions about the A-share market Optimism is spreading as the market rallies Over the past two weeks, we engaged with dozens of investors in mainland China and Hong Kong regarding the liquidity-driven A-share market rally, including mutual funds (MFs), private hedge funds, insurers, offshore hedge funds, global long-only funds and sovereign wealth funds. Overall, investor interest in the recent A-share market rebound ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several A-share stocks, including PetroChina, Yangtze Power, and NAURA Technology, among others, indicating a positive outlook for these companies [5]. Core Insights - The report anticipates a 6% year-over-year growth in CSI 300 A-share EPS for 2025, driven by a low base effect and potential policy easing, despite deflationary pressures limiting upward revisions [2][27]. - A-share valuations are expected to remain range-bound in the near term due to uncertainties surrounding US-China trade relations, but medium-term catalysts could arise from stronger policy easing and structural reforms [2][40]. - The "national team" (Central Huijin) has played a significant role in stabilizing the A-share market, particularly during periods of market correction, with substantial investments in CSI 300 ETFs [3][60]. Fund Flows and Market Styles - The report identifies five types of fund flows impacting market styles amid macro uncertainties, including significant inflows from the "national team," medium/long-term investors favoring high-dividend stocks, and retail investors driving small-cap outperformance [3][60]. - The report notes that high-dividend stocks have attracted long-term investors, particularly insurers, as they seek to mitigate risks associated with falling risk-free rates [65][66]. Sector Preferences and Investment Themes - The report outlines sector preferences based on different macro scenarios, suggesting that export-oriented sectors may benefit from trade friction de-escalation, while defensive sectors could be favored in adverse conditions [4]. - It highlights that consumption and property sectors may see the most benefit from stronger policy stimulus, while AI and services sectors could attract inflows under modest easing conditions [4]. Top A-share Picks - The report lists top A-share picks within UBS-S coverage, including PetroChina, Yangtze Power, and NAURA Technology, with respective price targets and expected upside percentages [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight rating on China equity, with a raised 12-month index target for MSCI China and CSI300 to 78 and 4,400, implying potential returns of 7% and 15% respectively [1][31]. Core Insights - Despite trade frictions with the US, China financial assets have shown resilience, with the Rmb appreciating against the USD by 1.7% in the past month and Chinese government bonds reaching all-time highs [1][2]. - The report highlights a targeted monetary easing package from the PBoC, NFRA, and CSRC, which includes 23 measures aimed at supporting the real economy and financial markets [6][8]. - The effective US tariff rate on Chinese imports is expected to decrease from around 160% to approximately 60%, which has led to an upward revision of the 2025 EPS growth estimate for MSCI China from 4% to 6% [1][10][13]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - China equity (MSCI China) has recovered 12% year-to-date and almost fully recovered from a 13% drawdown post-Liberation Day [1][3]. - Southbound flows to HK-listed equities have reached US$80 billion year-to-date, three times larger than the same period last year [19][20]. Monetary Policy - The recent monetary easing measures are seen as a positive surprise, aimed at improving liquidity and reducing funding costs, with a focus on demand-side support [6][8]. - Specific measures include a 50 basis point RRR cut providing approximately Rmb1 trillion in liquidity and targeted assistance for SMEs [8][10]. Economic Indicators - Hard data remains robust, with property sales in primary markets rising 26% year-over-year during the Labor Day holidays, particularly in tier-1 and tier-2 cities [10][11]. - However, soft data indicates signs of moderation, with declining trends in PMIs and cargo shipments [10][11]. Earnings Forecast - The report nudges up the 2025 EPS growth estimate for MSCI China to 6%, reflecting expectations of a lower effective US tariff rate and a stronger Rmb [10][13]. - The revised EPS integer forecast for 2026 remains 8% below the prevailing sell-side consensus [10]. Sector Focus - The report emphasizes a focus on sector and thematic alpha, particularly in domestic stimulus beneficiaries, select AI proxies, and local government spending beneficiaries [1][37]. - Banks and Real Estate have been upgraded to Overweight to enhance domestic exposure and sensitivity to policy easing [37][40].