February 10, 2026 07:46 PM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific China Domestic Travel and Hotels In this presentation, we examine China's travel recovery and its implications for the hotel segment. As travel shifts from volume recovery to monetization, slowing hotel supply and improving demand have driven a RevPAR inflection. We expect this to translate into accelerating hotel earnings. Related research – China's Emerging Frontiers: China's Travel: Turning Up the Joy Dial (8 Feb 2026) Hong Kong/China Le ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The analysis covers the transportation sector in China, specifically airlines, tankers, and container shipping, with a positive outlook on airlines and tankers while turning bearish on container shipping [1][8][10]. Airlines - **Positive Outlook**: Airlines are expected to benefit from higher international demand and supply constraints, leading to above-cycle Return on Equity (ROE) of 22% in 2027 [1]. - **Earnings Forecast**: The net demand forecast for airlines has been raised to 1.6% and 1.3% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, leading to an earnings upgrade for 2027. However, earnings for 2026 have been cut due to the negative impact from China-Japan flight cancellations [1][10]. - **Key Picks**: Air China-H and CEA-A are highlighted as key investment picks due to their price outperformance [1]. Tanker Shipping - **Optimistic Projections**: The crude tanker sector is expected to see further spot rate hikes amid a continuous upcycle in 2026, driven by faster crude stockpiling in China [2][10]. - **Average TCE Rates**: The average Time Charter Equivalent (TCE) for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) is forecasted to rise to $75, up from $56 in 2025 [1]. - **Supply Dynamics**: Supply growth is expected to be limited to 1% in 2026, with a lower effective supply growth forecast due to the exit of sanctioned capacity and increased storage use [2][10]. Container Shipping - **Bearish Stance**: The outlook for container shipping has turned bearish due to higher-than-expected new ship orders, which have driven the order book to 33% of current capacity. This is expected to lead to a deeper and longer downcycle [3][10]. - **Demand Decline**: There is a shrinking demand on the Transpacific route, exacerbated by declining US imports, which poses further downside risks [3]. Shipbuilding - **Continued Upcycle**: The shipbuilding sector is expected to benefit from limited supply growth, with a slight decline in new ship prices anticipated in the medium term due to a drop in new orders [22][10]. - **Long-term Outlook**: The order book coverage is expected to remain above 2.5x until 2032, indicating sustained demand for shipbuilding despite short-term fluctuations [22][24]. Ports and Exports - **Resilient Exports**: China's resilient export growth is projected at 5-6% per year, benefiting port operators and shipyards [11][10]. - **Port Operators**: Chinese port operators are expected to benefit from this resilient export growth, while shipyards may regain market share due to competitive pricing and cost advantages [11]. Key Investment Recommendations - **Buy Recommendations**: Air China, China Eastern Airlines, COSCO Shipping Energy, and COSCO Ports are recommended for purchase [9][10]. - **Sell Recommendations**: COSCO Shipping Holdings, Eastern Air Logistics, and Shanghai Airport are recommended for sale due to bearish outlooks [9][10]. Additional Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The analysis highlights the impact of supply constraints and lower oil prices on the transportation sector, with airlines and tankers positioned favorably compared to container shipping [8][10]. - **Scenario Analysis**: Potential scenarios regarding the reopening of the Red Sea and its impact on container shipping and tankers are discussed, indicating mixed outcomes for tankers and significant negative impacts for container shipping [12][10]. This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed overview of the current state and future outlook of the transportation sector in China, highlighting key investment opportunities and risks.

Summary of the Conference Call on Chinese Airlines Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Airlines - **Key Focus**: The outlook for the airline industry in the Asia Pacific region, particularly in China, with a focus on recovery from a weaker-than-expected summer peak and potential for future growth. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Current Market Conditions**: The summer peak was weaker than anticipated, with domestic passenger yield down in low single digits year-over-year (YoY), despite a slight improvement in passenger load factors (PLF) [2][16] 2. **Profit Expectations**: The Big Three airlines (Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines) are expected to report flat or mildly higher YoY profits in Q3 2025, attributed to capacity expansion on international routes [2][4] 3. **Business Demand Recovery**: There was a noted improvement in business demand in September, driven by pent-up demand from previous travel delays. This led to a positive YoY change in domestic yield [3][4] 4. **Pricing Power**: Airlines are expected to improve profitability in Q4 2025, supported by asset utilization and a recovering demand structure. Events like the China International Import Expo and Canton Fair are anticipated to drive business travel [4][29] 5. **Investment Recommendations**: Air China-H is favored due to its high exposure to long-haul international routes and effective yield management. China Eastern Airlines is also seen as having earnings improvement potential due to business travel recovery [5][6] Adjustments and Forecasts 1. **Earnings Forecasts**: Earnings forecasts for the Big Three airlines have been trimmed due to the weak summer performance, but the outlook for 2026-2027 remains more optimistic than consensus [6][42] 2. **Price Target Changes**: Price targets for the Big Three's H-shares have increased by an average of 29%, while A-shares have risen by 22% after rolling valuations forward to the end of 2026 [6][42] 3. **Passenger Traffic Assumptions**: Adjustments to passenger traffic assumptions reflect a decline in domestic traffic for Air China and China Eastern Airlines, while international traffic is expected to grow significantly [46][48][49] Additional Important Insights 1. **Anti-Involution Initiatives**: The concept of "anti-involution" is highlighted as a key strategy for airlines to improve profitability amidst competitive pressures. This includes better execution of regulatory requirements due to the predominance of state-owned enterprises in the industry [24][25] 2. **Inbound Tourism Growth**: Airlines are positioned to benefit from China's inbound tourism boom, with significant revenue exposure to inbound travel, which is expected to enhance margins [40][41] 3. **Market Sentiment**: The Big Three airlines have underperformed the broader market since early July, indicating a need for recovery in market sentiment [16][19] Conclusion - The Chinese airline industry is navigating through a challenging period with signs of recovery on the horizon. The focus on business demand recovery, pricing power, and strategic initiatives like anti-involution are critical for future profitability. The investment outlook remains cautiously optimistic, particularly for Air China due to its strategic positioning in the market.

Tech Sector Developments - A framework deal has been reached for an Oracle-led consortium to acquire approximately 80% of TikTok's U.S. operations, with Beijing's approval for Oracle to manage U.S. user data in Texas [3][8] - China is making strides towards semiconductor self-sufficiency, with Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) trialing domestically built advanced AI chipmaking equipment [4][8] - Taiwan has added Chinese tech firms Inspur, Nettrix, and Suma to its export blacklist, highlighting ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting global supply chains [5][8] U.S. Housing Market Insights - The U.S. housing market is experiencing a surge in new home inventory, reaching 121,000 unsold constructed homes in July, the highest level since before the Great Recession in 2009, indicating weak demand [6][8] - High prices and elevated mortgage rates are contributing to buyer unease and a significant number of canceled home purchases [6][8] Currency and Macroeconomic Trends - The U.S. dollar has approached its lowest level since March 2022, reflecting shifts in global currency dynamics influenced by changing interest rate expectations [7][8] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has lowered the USD/CNY fix to 7.1013, signaling an intent to strengthen the yuan [10][8] Asian Markets and Financing - Chinese internet firms Tencent and Baidu are raising record funds in Hong Kong's dim sum bond market, with Tencent raising 9 billion yuan ($1.27 billion) and Baidu securing 4.4 billion yuan ($618 million) to support AI initiatives [9][8] - Japan has issued ¥3.2 trillion in Treasury discount bills to address short-term funding needs, while Japanese Government Bonds remain stable [10][8] International Trade Developments - U.S. Trade Representative met with South Korea's trade minister to discuss a bilateral trade deal involving a $350 billion investment package and tariff reductions on Korean autos [11][8] - Australia has committed $735 million for biofuels development, indicating a focus on green energy investments [11][8] Airline Industry Expansion - China Eastern Airlines is launching a new Shanghai-Buenos Aires route via Auckland, marking one of the world's longest direct flights at approximately 29 hours [12][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a consistent sector preference, favoring sports brands, diversified retailers, dairy, beverages, and restaurants, while being less favorable towards apparel/footwear OEM, furniture, projectors, discretionary small kitchen appliances, jewelry, and non-super-premium spirits [11]. Core Insights - Consumption in China has shown signs of recovery, with retail sales growth improving to +4.6% year-over-year in 1Q25, and companies in the coverage reporting an average growth of 14% compared to 12% in 4Q24 [1]. - Despite the positive growth, companies remain cautious about the outlook due to ongoing volatility and external factors such as US-China tariff developments impacting consumer confidence [2][1]. - Margin performance in 1Q25 was mixed, with some companies benefiting from favorable raw material prices and cost control, while others faced risks from marketing investments and competition [1]. - Companies are generally maintaining disciplined pricing strategies and healthier inventory levels, although some categories like spirits and sportswear are experiencing challenges due to demand pressures [1]. - The impact of tariffs on earnings and consumer sentiment is significant, with companies cautious about the second half of 2025 amid uncertainties [2]. Summary by Sections Key Findings from 1Q25 Results - Retail sales growth improved to +4.6% year-over-year, with coverage companies reporting an average growth of 14% [1]. - Labor Day consumption growth accelerated, indicating a potential rebound in consumer spending [1]. Expectations for 2Q25 - Companies are cautious about the outlook for 2H25 due to tariff uncertainties, although those with market share gain opportunities may be more resilient [2]. Sector/Stock Preferences - Preferred sectors include sports brands, diversified retailers, dairy, beverages, and restaurants, while least preferred sectors include apparel/footwear OEM and furniture [11]. Macro Data Points - The report notes that macroeconomic data points are solid, but ongoing tariff developments and policy support need to be monitored [11]. Valuation Methodology - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the valuation methodology and the potential risks associated with it [11].

Core Viewpoint - Chinese airlines have started returning Boeing aircraft to the U.S. in response to the U.S. imposing 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, which has led to a halt in further deliveries of Boeing jets to China [1][4]. Group 1: Impact on Deliveries - A Boeing 737 Max recently returned to Seattle, marking the beginning of aircraft returns from China [1]. - Three 737 Max 8 jets that were prepared for delivery to Chinese airlines were recalled to the U.S. last week [2]. - A Boeing jet intended for Xiamen Airlines was seen landing back at Boeing's production hub, indicating a disruption in the delivery process [3]. Group 2: Domestic Business Effects - The halt in Boeing deliveries has affected domestic business, with a Chinese aircraft lessor facing challenges as another airline backed away from its commitment to take delivery [9]. - Analysts suggest that airline CEOs may prefer to defer plane deliveries rather than incur duties, which could negatively impact Chinese airline operations [9]. Group 3: Boeing's Market Position - Boeing, a significant U.S. exporter, is facing challenges in the Chinese market, where it aimed to compete with Airbus [11]. - Year-to-date deliveries show that Boeing has delivered 18 aircraft to nine airlines in China, with major airlines planning to take delivery of a total of 179 Boeing planes between 2025-2027 [11]. - The current situation follows a nearly five-year import freeze on 737 MAX jets in China due to safety concerns stemming from two fatal crashes [12].