Two ETF issuers are joining the trend of bringing politics to the trading floor.Bitwise and GraniteShares are seeking regulatory approval to launch ETFs linked directly to the outcomes of upcoming U.S. elections, marking another step in the expansion of prediction market-style investing. • DraftKings stock is showing upward movement. Why are DKNG shares climbing?Bitwise, through its PredictionShares lineup, has filed for six ETFs proposed for listing on NYSE Arca. According to its prospectus, the funds aim ...

Core Insights - The discussion revolves around the increasing relevance of prediction markets in providing reliable information amidst a landscape of misinformation and uncertainty [3][4][22] - Prediction markets are posited as more accurate than traditional polling methods, particularly in forecasting election outcomes [4][19][22] - Concerns about market manipulation and insider trading are highlighted, indicating potential flaws in the reliability of prediction markets [5][21][23] Prediction Markets Overview - Companies like Cal Poly Market position themselves as trustworthy sources of truth in a world filled with misinformation [3] - Prediction markets have shown high accuracy in predicting election outcomes, especially for major races, outperforming traditional polls [4][19] - The accuracy of prediction markets is attributed to their method of aggregating information based on financial stakes rather than personal opinions [18][19] Market Regulation and Oversight - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulates prediction markets in the U.S., overseeing what contracts are permissible [9][23] - There is an ongoing debate about whether prediction markets should be classified as gambling, which would subject them to stricter regulations and taxation [24] - Current taxation for earnings from prediction markets is treated as regular income, unlike traditional gambling platforms [24] Market Dynamics and User Experience - KALSI operates under U.S. regulations, while Poly Market primarily functions overseas, leading to differences in market offerings and regulatory oversight [9][14] - The user interface of prediction markets is noted to be simpler and more user-friendly compared to traditional sports betting platforms, attracting users [15] - A significant portion of KALSI's activity is focused on sports betting, while Poly Market's U.S. operations are entirely sports-related [14] Case Studies and Examples - An example is provided where traders on Poly Market closely monitored a speech by Jerome Powell, demonstrating how specific words can influence market behavior [26][28] - The incident illustrates the challenges in determining factual outcomes in prediction markets, highlighting the potential for ambiguity [28]

Six Democratic senators are demanding CFTC Chairman Michael Selig ban prediction market contracts that resolve on someone dying, a city being captured or a NASA rocket exploding.The letter, led by Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), goes further than just the three examples. The senators are asking the CFTC to reiterate that contracts involving gaming, sports, war, terrorism, assassination or similar activities are barred from being listed, traded or cleared under the Commodity Exchange Act. They also want CFTC Ch ...

We came across a bullish thesis on DraftKings Inc. on Cundill Deep ValueCundill Deep Value’s Substack by FRAGMENTS. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on DKNG. DraftKings Inc.'s share was trading at $27.22 as of February 9th. DKNG’s forward P/E was 17.51 respectively according to Yahoo Finance. 10 Best Sports Betting Stocks to Buy Now REDPIXEL.PL/Shutterstock.com DraftKings Inc. operates as a digital sports entertainment and gaming company in the United States and internationally. DKNG ...

DraftKings Inc. (NASDAQ:DKNG) is one of the 14 Best Consumer Discretionary Stocks to Buy Right Now. Jefferies analyst David Katz, on February 15, reduced his target price on DraftKings by 8.0% to $46 (from $50) but kept the firm’s buy recommendation on the stock. The company’s conservative guidance in 2026, which David says includes several new product development and new location launch costs that will not immediately contribute to revenue, is one of the reasons for this change in target price. He, how ...

DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) shares nosedived last week after the company reported strong growth but issued conservative guidance. The online sports betting stock is now trading down about 35% year to date as of this writing. Let's take a closer look at its results and prospects to see if the drop is a buying opportunity. Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now, when you join Stock Advisor. See the stocks » Image source: Getty ...

DraftKings Inc. (NASDAQ:DKNG) is one of the best growth stocks to buy for the next 20 years. On February 17, Needham lowered its price target on DraftKings to $35 from $52 with a Buy rating following a Q4 2025 earnings miss and a reduced revenue outlook for fiscal year 2026. While the firm expects the upcoming investor day to be beneficial, the analyst argued that the company must develop a prediction market product on par with Kalshi to drive meaningful revenue and cash flow. Northland analyst Greg Giba ...

Group 1 - DraftKings Inc. (NASDAQ:DKNG) is considered one of the best stocks under $50 to invest in, despite recent price target reductions by analysts [1][3] - BMO Capital analyst Brian Pitz lowered the price target on DraftKings to $42 from $50, citing that the company's 2026 guidance fell 8% below revenue and 20% below EBITDA estimates at the midpoint [1] - Canaccord also reduced its price target to $44 from $50 while maintaining a Buy rating, following solid Q4 results, but noted a sell-off due to disappointing FY 2026 guidance [3] Group 2 - Management claims that prediction markets have a minimal impact on DraftKings' business, but concerns persist regarding competition as the company expands its own prediction offerings [2][4] - The firm indicated that a softer January handle may continue to raise concerns about competition from prediction markets [2] - Despite a 4% year-over-year increase in January handle, the stock faced an after-hours sell-off due to the disappointing FY 2026 guidance [3]

Core Insights - A federal regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is asserting its jurisdiction over prediction markets, particularly in response to state regulators' concerns about these markets being akin to illegal sports betting [2][5]. Group 1: Regulatory Landscape - CFTC Chair Mike Selig emphasized the agency's commitment to defending its authority over prediction markets, stating that it filed a legal brief in support of Crypto.com in federal court [2]. - Selig's op-ed in The Wall Street Journal highlighted the agency's stance against "overzealous state governments" that may undermine its regulatory power over prediction markets [2]. - The legal debate centers on whether prediction markets, which involve events contracts with binary outcomes, should be regulated by state gambling authorities or fall under the CFTC's jurisdiction as derivatives [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Prediction markets are rapidly gaining attention and are implementing marketing strategies, such as offering free groceries, to enhance their visibility and business ventures [3]. - Key players in the prediction market space include Polymarket and Kalshi, with other companies like CME Group, Robinhood, Coinbase, and DraftKings also entering the market [6]. - Robinhood's chief noted that their venture into prediction markets is the fastest-growing initiative in the company's history [6]. Group 3: Political and Public Reactions - Pennsylvania Senator Dave McCormick praised prediction markets for their potential benefits to businesses and individuals [4]. - Utah Governor Spencer Cox criticized the CFTC's authority over prediction markets, suggesting they are harmful to families and young men [4]. - The ongoing debate has sparked reactions from both supporters and critics of prediction markets, indicating a contentious environment as regulatory battles intensify [7][8].

[music] Welcome to Market Catalysts. I'm Julie Hyman. [music] We are 30 minutes into the US trading day.So, let's get to the three market catalyst we're watching this hour. First up, the AI scare trade weighs on investor sentiment still or again. We're going to have full market coverage [music] ahead as the software selloff simmers on Wall Street.Plus, we'll get a preview of Walmart's earnings results after the retailer's [music] trillion dollar milestone. And we'll talk with the CEO, Dutch Bros, as the sto ...