Core Insights - Assurant reported its ninth consecutive year of profitable growth in 2025, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by approximately 11% and adjusted EPS rising by about 12% excluding catastrophes [3][7]. Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA excluding catastrophes has increased by over $700 million since 2020, representing an 11% compound annual growth rate [2]. - Adjusted EPS excluding catastrophes grew to $22.81 per share, with a total shareholder return of approximately 93% over the last five years [2]. - Including catastrophes, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS increased by 16% and 19%, respectively, in 2025 [3][7]. Business Segments - In Global Lifestyle, adjusted EBITDA grew at a mid-single-digit rate, with Connected Living adding nearly 2 million protected devices, totaling over 66 million globally [1][7]. - Global Automotive also saw mid-single-digit earnings growth, with Assurant now protecting 57 million vehicles, an increase of nearly 2 million from the previous year [8]. - Global Housing achieved double-digit adjusted EBITDA growth in 2025, surpassing $1 billion in segment earnings, more than doubling since 2022 [9]. Strategic Initiatives - Assurant is launching a national rollout of its Home Warranty service, integrated into real estate transactions, and has signed a long-term agreement with Compass International Holdings [5][21]. - The company is investing in AI and reverse logistics to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency [5][24]. - Share repurchases for 2026 are planned in the range of $250 million to $350 million, following $300 million in buybacks in 2025 [5][25]. 2026 Outlook - Management expects underlying adjusted EBITDA and EPS to grow mid- to high-single digits excluding catastrophes, with an anticipated annual CAT load of about $180–$185 million [6][20]. - Global Lifestyle is expected to lead growth, with high-single-digit earnings expansion driven by new program optimizations and existing client expansions [17]. - In Global Housing, growth is anticipated from higher tracked loans and continued hardening in the voluntary homeowners market [18][19]. Capital Deployment - Assurant returned $138 million to shareholders in the fourth quarter, including $94 million in share repurchases and $44 million in dividends [14]. - The company increased its dividend by 10% in November, marking its 21st consecutive year of dividend increases [15]. - Corporate EBITDA loss is expected to be approximately $140 million in 2026 due to investments in the Home Warranty segment [22]. Market Position - The home warranty market is described as fragmented, with opportunities for growth as customer trust improves [23]. - Assurant's strategic moves include expanding partnerships with major brands and enhancing service delivery through technology [8][24].

Core Insights - TopBuild Corp. has expanded its presence in the Northeast through the acquisition of Applied Coatings and Upstate Spray Foam, which together generate nearly $20 million in annual revenues [1][8] - The acquisition strengthens TopBuild's installer network and enhances its service offerings in insulation and fireproofing, targeting both residential and commercial markets [2][3] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The deal adds local scale and established customer relationships, supporting deeper penetration in regional construction markets [2] - Management views the acquisition as part of a strategy to drive growth and improve profitability, creating more opportunities in housing and commercial segments [3][4] - The transaction aligns with TopBuild's strategy of using targeted acquisitions to build density in key markets [4] Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, consolidated net sales increased by 1.5% year-over-year, with sales from acquisitions rising by 7.9%, offsetting slower residential activity [6] - TopBuild has completed 49 acquisitions since its 2015 spin-off, demonstrating a consistent focus on strategic deals to support growth [5] Group 3: Stock Performance and Valuation - TopBuild's shares have gained 14.7% over the past three months, outperforming the Zacks Building Products - Miscellaneous industry, which rose by 2.8% [7] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 23.93, above the industry average of 18.59 [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TopBuild's earnings for 2026 remains unchanged at $19.86 per share, implying a year-over-year growth of 1% [13]

分组1 - Curreen Capital reported a return of 10.5% in Q4 2025 and 30.97% for the full year, focusing on "ugly ducklings" which are well-managed companies trading at attractive prices [1] - The firm highlighted Frontdoor, Inc. (NASDAQ:FTDR) as a key investment, with a one-month return of 0.65% and a 52-week gain of 1.58%, closing at $59.11 per share with a market capitalization of $4.31 billion [2][3] - Frontdoor, Inc. provides home service plans and serves about 2% of U.S. homes, utilizing free cash flow for organic growth, debt repayment, share repurchase, and acquisitions [3] 分组2 - Frontdoor, Inc. was held by 36 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q3 2025, a slight decrease from 37 in the previous quarter, indicating moderate interest among hedge funds [4] - Curreen Capital suggests that while Frontdoor has potential, certain AI stocks may offer greater upside and less downside risk, indicating a competitive investment landscape [4]

Core Insights - Gibraltar Industries, Inc. (ROCK) has reported preliminary unaudited fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results that fell short of prior guidance due to weaker end-market conditions and timing issues across key segments [2] - Following the announcement, ROCK's stock experienced an 11.4% decline during the trading session [2] Financial Performance - The company has lowered its full-year guidance for 2025, with net sales now expected to be between $1.13 billion and $1.14 billion, down from the previous range of $1.15 billion to $1.18 billion, but still above 2024's net sales of $1.02 billion [3] - Projected operating income for 2025 is now $121 million to $123 million, reduced from prior guidance of $141 million to $145 million and below the $140 million reported in 2024 [4] - Adjusted operating income is estimated at $149 million to $151 million, compared to earlier guidance of $163 million to $167 million, aligning with the $149 million generated in 2024 [4] - Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $184 million and $186 million, trailing prior guidance of $197 million to $202 million but exceeding the $177 million recorded last year [4] - Adjusted EPS is projected to be $3.88 to $3.93, below the previous guidance range of $4.20 to $4.30, yet slightly higher than the adjusted EPS of $3.82 in 2024 [5] Segment Performance - In the Residential segment, Gibraltar gained market share in building accessories, although overall industry demand was slower due to inventory adjustments and delayed price realization [6] - The Agtech segment experienced a shift in large project volumes out of 2025, impacting reported revenues, but bookings remained strong with backlog more than tripling year over year, positioning the segment for a stronger 2026 [7] - The Infrastructure segment reported quarterly revenue growth with strong margins, providing stability amid broader market softness [7] Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in improving fundamentals heading into 2026, including better-aligned residential channel inventories and a total backlog that has increased by over 100% year over year [8] - The company has a cash balance exceeding $115 million, and price increases along with cost-reduction initiatives implemented late in 2025 are expected to support profitability in 2026 [8] - The planned OmniMax acquisition is on track to close in the first quarter of 2026, which is expected to further strengthen Gibraltar's building-accessories platform [8] Stock Performance - Gibraltar's stock has gained 1.3% over the past month, compared to a 4.4% growth in the Zacks Building Products - Miscellaneous industry [11] - Near-term visibility remains challenged due to ongoing sluggishness in single- and multi-family construction, affecting Mail and Package volumes and causing delays in Agtech projects [11]

Core Insights - Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) has secured a $66 million highway improvement contract from the California Department of Transportation for a project in Nevada County, CA, with funding from federal and state sources [1][8] - The project involves expanding State Route 49 to four lanes with a center turn lane, aimed at improving road safety and traffic movement, while also enhancing access for local communities [2][8] - Granite's Committed and Awarded Projects (CAP) reached a record $6.3 billion as of September 30, 2025, up from $5.6 billion in the previous year, indicating strong growth potential for the company [6][10] Project Details - The highway expansion project will include the supply of approximately 75,000 tons of Hot Mix Asphalt (HMA) and Rubberized Hot Mix Asphalt (RHMA) from the Bradshaw Hot Plant, ensuring steady material supply and construction quality [3][8] - The project is strategically located near Sacramento, within Granite's core operating market, and reflects the company's ongoing relationship with Caltrans District 03 [2][4] Business Strategy - Granite is focusing on a vertically integrated model with an emphasis on its Materials business, which supports cost control and reliable supply for large transportation projects [5][10] - The company is committed to disciplined project selection and consistent execution practices, which contribute to margin stability and growth across its core operating regions [4][10] Market Performance - GVA's shares have increased by 15.1% over the past three months, outperforming the Zacks Building Products - Heavy Construction industry's growth of 5.1% [10] - The bidding pipeline remains robust in both public and private markets, providing opportunities for Granite to expand its CAP and support organic growth [10]

Core Insights - Argan, Inc. (AGX) shares have increased by 49% over the past six months, significantly outperforming the Zacks Building Products - Miscellaneous industry's growth of 18.2% and the broader Construction sector and S&P 500, which grew by 12.4% and 14.3% respectively [1][5]. Industry Overview - The construction environment is mixed, but demand for power generation and grid reliability remains strong. Factors such as tariffs, high input and labor costs, and inflation exert some pressure, yet infrastructure spending related to electricity demand and system upgrades is resilient [3][4]. Company Performance - Argan is experiencing steady momentum due to increasing demand for reliable power generation and grid infrastructure. The company benefits from rising electricity consumption driven by data centers, AI workloads, and electrification, which supports large natural gas projects where its EPC capabilities provide a competitive advantage [4][9]. - Argan's backlog reached a record of nearly $3 billion, providing clear revenue visibility across multi-year projects. The company is expanding its services beyond power to include industrial and telecom construction [8][12]. Backlog and Project Mix - The backlog consists of over 6 gigawatts of generation capacity, with management expecting to maintain 10-12 active projects at any time. This backlog supports predictable revenue progression extending into 2027 [12]. - Approximately 79% of the backlog is associated with gas-fired facilities, reflecting the demand for reliable power to support renewable generation and rising electricity consumption [14]. Revenue Diversification - Argan is diversifying its revenue streams through its Industrial Construction Services and Telecommunications Infrastructure Services segments. In Q3 of fiscal 2026, revenues from Industrial Construction Services increased by 19% year over year to $49 million, while Telecommunications Infrastructure Services revenues rose by 76% to $6.3 million [16]. Valuation and Earnings Outlook - AGX stock is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 31.47, which is higher than peers like TopBuild, Frontdoor, and Gibraltar, which have forward P/E ratios of 24.37, 14.94, and 11.9 respectively [17][19]. - Despite the premium valuation, analysts have revised AGX's earnings estimates upward, projecting a 23.2% year-over-year growth in earnings for fiscal 2027, with expected revenue growth of 37.4% [20].

Industry Overview - The Zacks Building Products - Miscellaneous industry is under pressure from tariffs, high input and labor costs, and persistent inflation, leading to slowed commercial activity and challenges in housing affordability [1][4][6] - Supply-chain disruptions and high energy expenses are contributing to these challenges, with mortgage rates remaining above 6%, which dampens demand for new construction [1][6] Long-term Prospects - Despite current challenges, long-term prospects are positive due to federal investments in infrastructure and global supply-chain reinvestment, which provide a strong growth backdrop [2][7] - Companies are focusing on efficiency through cost-saving initiatives, digital solutions, and acquisitions to capitalize on these trends [2][9] Key Trends - Tariff policies are reshaping the industry by increasing costs and disrupting supply chains, which is expected to slow commercial construction activity [4] - Rising costs related to transportation, materials, and labor are compressing margins and affecting operating performance [5] Market Performance - The Zacks Building Products - Miscellaneous industry has underperformed the broader Zacks S&P 500 Composite and the Zacks Construction sector over the past year, gaining only 4.7% compared to the sector's 7.8% and the S&P 500's 22.1% [10][14] - The industry's Zacks Industry Rank is 159, placing it in the bottom 35% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating bleak near-term prospects [10][11] Earnings Outlook - Analysts have reduced the earnings estimates for the industry, with projections for 2026 decreasing from $4.67 to $4.50 per share [12] - The industry's earnings outlook is closely tied to the U.S. housing and renovation markets, which are facing challenges due to high mortgage rates and supply constraints [6] Company Highlights - **Argan, Inc. (AGX)**: Positioned for growth in power and renewable energy projects, with a 79% gain over the past year and upward earnings estimate revisions indicating strong future growth [20][21] - **Installed Building Products, Inc. (IBP)**: A leading installer of residential insulation, with a 60.3% gain over the past year and a focus on operational efficiency and market resilience [26][27] - **Frontdoor, Inc. (FTDR)**: Offers home warranties and is benefiting from a scalable platform, with a 6.6% gain over the past year and increasing earnings estimates [30][32] - **Gibraltar Industries, Inc. (ROCK)**: Focused on residential building products, with a long-term constructive outlook despite a 9.6% loss over the past year, and upward earnings estimate revisions [35][36]

Core Viewpoint - Small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000 present significant investment opportunities, but they also come with higher risks and challenges compared to large-cap stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Stocks to Sell - **Frontdoor (FTDR)**: - Market Cap: $4.00 billion - Trading at $50.03 per share, equivalent to 13x forward P/E [3][5]. - **Northwest Bancshares (NWBI)**: - Market Cap: $1.75 billion - Trading at $11.69 per share, equivalent to 0.9x forward P/B [6][8]. Group 2: Stock to Watch - **Boot Barn (BOOT)**: - Market Cap: $5.71 billion - Projected revenue growth of 13.7% for the next 12 months indicates potential market share gains [9][12]. - Same-store sales growth averaged 2.9% over the past two years, reflecting elevated demand for brick-and-mortar locations [11][12].

Core Insights - Knife River reported quarterly earnings of $2.52 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.45 per share, but down from $2.6 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of +2.86% [1] - The company posted revenues of $1.2 billion for the quarter ended September 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.80% and up from $1.11 billion year-over-year [2] - Knife River has underperformed the market, with shares down approximately 39.9% year-to-date compared to the S&P 500's gain of 16.5% [3] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.38 on revenues of $730.6 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $2.75 on revenues of $3.11 billion [7] - The earnings outlook is critical for assessing future stock performance, with recent estimate revisions trending unfavorably, resulting in a Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell) for the stock [6] Industry Context - Knife River operates within the Zacks Building Products - Miscellaneous industry, which is currently ranked in the bottom 39% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges ahead [8] - The performance of Knife River's stock may be influenced by the overall industry outlook, as historically, the top 50% of Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by more than 2 to 1 [8]

Core Insights - Vulcan Materials (VMC) reported quarterly earnings of $2.84 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.68 per share, and showing an increase from $2.22 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of +5.97% [1][2] - The company achieved revenues of $2.29 billion for the quarter ended September 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.67%, compared to $2 billion in the same quarter last year [2] - Vulcan has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times over the last four quarters and topped revenue estimates two times in the same period [2] Earnings Outlook - The sustainability of Vulcan's stock price movement will depend on management's commentary during the earnings call and future earnings expectations [3][4] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $2.39 on revenues of $2.06 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $8.50 on revenues of $8.05 billion [7] Industry Context - The Building Products - Concrete and Aggregates industry, to which Vulcan belongs, is currently ranked in the top 22% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook [8] - Empirical research suggests a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can impact Vulcan's stock performance [5][6]