February 16, 2026 12:59 AM GMT China Property | Asia Pacific Fast-Softening, High-Frequency Data Strengthens Our Call on Likely Unsustainable Recovery Recent secondary home sales have been trending down rapidly, as expected, reinforcing our view that sales pickup in January is likely unsustainable. We reiterate our call on potential sector pull-back into results season amid further cool-down on home sales in coming weeks. Key Takeaways Secondary home sales are cooling fast, with YTD registered sales in 11 m ...

Summary of Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Property** market, specifically discussing trends in home prices and market dynamics in January 2026 [1][8]. Key Points Home Price Trends - Secondary home prices in major cities fell by **0.7% month-on-month (m-m)** and **14.1% year-on-year (y-y)** in January 2026, showing a softer decline compared to previous months [2][14]. - **98%** of the sample cities experienced m-m decreases, but only **9%** saw faster declines, indicating a slight improvement in market conditions [2][16]. - Tier 1 cities reported a milder drop of **-0.3% m-m** compared to **-1.3% in December**, attributed to a pickup in secondary home sales due to mild policy easing [2][5]. Listings and Market Activity - Total listings remained stable, with an average decrease of **0.2% m-m** across approximately **50 sample cities** [3]. - New secondary listings decreased by **10% m-m** but increased by **40% y-y** due to the Chinese New Year (CNY) calendar effect, marking the tenth consecutive month of decline [3]. - Visits to agent shops decreased by **1% m-m** but rose **80% y-y** on average in January, suggesting a seasonal effect [4][11]. Future Expectations - The company expects further home price declines, projecting **8%** and **6% y-y** declines in secondary home prices for 2026 and 2027, respectively [5]. - The sentiment-driven outperformance in the industry is viewed as unsustainable, with expectations of near-term headwinds affecting companies like Greentown, Jinmao, Longfor, and Vanke [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report favors quality companies with credible self-help stories for 2026, such as **CR Land** and **Seazen**, which are expected to benefit from the focus on consumption and supportive policies for Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) [6]. - **C&D International** is highlighted as a consolidator in the residential market with an optimized land bank supporting margins and positive earnings growth [6]. Additional Insights - The analysis indicates that **67%** of the sample cities had higher total listings compared to pre-easing levels in September 2024, with about **30%** reaching record-high levels [3]. - The physical market downtrend is expected to continue but at a softer pace, with potential stabilization in tier 1 and select tier 2 cities by the second half of 2027 if the macro environment remains resilient [5]. Conclusion - The China Property market is experiencing a challenging environment with declining home prices and high secondary listings impacting buyer sentiment. The outlook remains cautious, with expectations of continued price declines and a focus on quality companies for investment opportunities.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on China Property Industry Industry Overview - The China property industry has shown an 11% year-to-date performance, outperforming the MSCI China index which is at 7% [1] - The current sentiment-driven rally is viewed as likely unsustainable due to a fragile housing market and high sector valuations [1] Core Insights - The rally is attributed to improved investor sentiment from positive policy news and a recent uptick in housing sales, influenced by a later Chinese New Year and mild policy easing [9] - However, there are multiple near-term headwinds anticipated, including: - Over-optimism regarding the physical market recovery [3] - Potential earnings misses for key developers in 2025, with profit warnings expected from Greentown, Longfor, and Vanke [4] - A decline in contracted sales in Q1 due to reduced saleable resources and a high base effect [4] - High valuations across the sector [4] Company-Specific Insights - Companies expected to face challenges include: - **Greentown**, **Jinmao**, **Longfor**, and **Vanke A/H** due to potential earnings misses and high valuations [4] - In contrast, companies favored for their fundamentals include: - **CR Land** and **Seazen A/H**, which are robust mall operators benefiting from consumption-boosting initiatives [5] - **C&D**, recognized as residential market consolidators with optimized landbanks supporting margins and positive earnings growth [5] Market Outlook - A potential sector pullback is anticipated as the results season approaches, with cautious guidance expected from developers regarding property sales, development margins, and earnings recovery [9] - The likelihood of further policy stimulus is seen as diminishing, especially before the Chinese New Year, given the recent improvement in home sales volume in tier 1 cities [9] - Analysts maintain a cautious outlook, predicting continued home price declines in top-tier cities over the next two years [9] Stock Ratings and Price Targets - The report includes a summary of stock ratings and price targets for various companies in the sector: - **C&D International** (OW, PT: HKD 20.62) - **CR Land** (OW, PT: HKD 39.20) - **Seazen A** (OW, PT: RMB 19.70) - **Greentown** (UW, PT: HKD 7.86) - **Vanke A** (UW, PT: RMB 2.70) [6] Additional Considerations - The report emphasizes the importance of considering the broader market context and potential conflicts of interest in investment decisions [7][8] - Analysts express skepticism about the sustainability of fund flows into the sector, given the bearish outlook for the China housing market [9] This summary encapsulates the key insights and outlook for the China property industry as discussed in the conference call, highlighting both risks and opportunities within the sector.

Summary of China Property FY25E Preview Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Property** sector, particularly the financial outlook for FY25E and the implications for FY26-30E. Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance Expectations - **Kitchen Sinking**: Anticipated write-offs and lower gross profit margins (GPM) in FY25E are expected to create a lower base for a fresh start in 2026-30E, with most companies likely to report profits rather than losses, especially state-owned enterprises (SOEs) [1] - **Sales Targets Ambiguity**: There is uncertainty regarding sales targets for FY26E due to challenges in the second half of FY25 and a high base in Q1 2025, leading to expected declines in Q1 2026 [1] - **De-stocking and Inventory Management**: De-stocking efforts are on track, but lower sales are expected due to new product offerings (version 4.0) that provide better quality [1] - **Restructuring Outcomes**: Companies that have completed restructuring are projected to post significant net profits following debt reductions or debt-to-equity swaps, with questions raised about potential second restructuring plans [1] Earnings Downgrades and Misses - **Core Profit Decline**: A 34% decline in core profits is expected across 15 companies with no credit issues, with GPM dropping to 13.9% from 15.5% in 2024 [2] - **Specific Company Performance**: - **CRL**: Expected to miss expectations with a 17% year-over-year decline, reporting RMB 21.2 billion, primarily due to the absence of REIT disposal gains [2] - **Longfor**: Anticipated loss of RMB 2 billion, with stable recurring profits but no dividends [2] - **Poly Development**: Announced an 85% profit decline [2] - **Yuexiu**: Expected to report minimal profit due to write-offs [2] - **Greentown**: Similar challenges noted [2] Land Investment Trends - **Land Acquisition Growth**: Listed companies are expected to increase land investments by 15% year-over-year, with 58% of acquisitions occurring in the first half of FY25 [4] - **Top Buyers**: The top five companies accounted for 71% of the sector's land acquisitions, with notable growth from COGO (+96% year-over-year) and Jinmao (+78%) [4] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - **Cash Flow Pressure**: Expected to alleviate in FY26E as capital expenditures for pre-sales delivery peak in FY25 [5] - **Debt Management**: Companies are likely to focus on extending debt tenures at low costs while maintaining positive cash flow [5] Market Reactions and Policy Implications - **Short-lived Rebound**: The sector saw a positive reaction to policy easing expectations, but any rebound is expected to be short-lived due to anticipated sales declines and earnings cuts [6] - **Luxury Retail Performance**: Positive same-store sales growth in luxury malls was noted, but December showed a deceleration, missing expectations [6] Strategic Recommendations - **Top Picks**: Recommended stocks include Jinmao, CRL, and COLI based on their performance outlook [6] Additional Insights - **Dividend Payout Ratios**: Companies like Midea Real Estate are expected to maintain high payout ratios, while others like Longfor and Greentown are likely to cut dividends [12] - **Valuation Metrics**: The report includes various valuation metrics for companies within the sector, indicating significant NAV discounts and varying P/E ratios [18] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections for the China Property sector as outlined in the conference call, highlighting both challenges and potential opportunities for investors.

Summary of China Property Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Property - **Date**: December 15, 2025 - **Key Findings**: The property market in China is experiencing significant challenges, with home sales and construction activity declining faster than anticipated. The outlook for 2026 remains bleak, with expectations of prolonged downtrends in the physical market. Key Points Home Sales and Market Sentiment - Home sales in November saw a year-on-year decline of **-25%** in value and **-17%** in volume, worsening from October's declines of **-24%** and **-19%** respectively, leading to an **11M25** decline of **-11.1%** in value and **-7.8%** in volume [2][3] - The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported a further drop in home prices, with primary markets down **0.4%** month-on-month and secondary markets down **0.7%** in November [2] Construction Activity - Construction completions fell by **26%** year-on-year in November, slightly improving from a **28%** decline in October, with an **11M25** decline of **-18.0%** [3] - New construction starts decreased by **28%** year-on-year in November, compared to a **30%** decline in October, leading to an **11M25** decline of **-21%** [3] - Real estate investment (REI) saw a significant decline of **-30%** year-on-year in November, worsening from **-23%** in October, with an **11M25** decline of **-15.9%** [3] Market Outlook - The physical market is expected to take longer to stabilize, with predictions of a high single-digit percentage decline in primary sales volume and mid-teens percentage declines in new starts, completions, and REI in 2026 [4] - Inventory levels remain high, and the analysis suggests that home prices in tier-1 and major tier-2 cities may stabilize in the second half of 2027 if the macroeconomic environment remains stable [4] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on quality companies with credible self-help stories, such as **CR Land** and **Seazen A**, which are expected to generate positive alpha despite the negative industry beta in 2026 [5] - **C&D** and **COLI** are highlighted as consolidators in the residential market, with optimized land banks supporting margin and earnings recovery [5] Data Summary - **Total sales value** in November was **Rmb 611 billion**, down **25.1%** year-on-year [6] - **Residential sales value** was **Rmb 532 billion**, down **17.3%** year-on-year [6] - **Total RE investment** was **Rmb 503 billion**, down **30.3%** year-on-year [6] - **Total GFA started** was **44 million sqm**, down **27.6%** year-on-year [6] - **Total GFA completion** was **46 million sqm**, down **25.5%** year-on-year [6] Conclusion The China property market is facing significant headwinds, with declining sales, construction activity, and investment. The outlook for 2026 remains challenging, but there are potential investment opportunities in quality companies that can navigate the current environment effectively.

Summary of the Conference Call on China Property Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **China Property** industry, particularly the outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025 and the performance of State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) versus Private-Owned Enterprises (POEs) in the sector [2][4][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Muted Nationwide Policy**: - The expectation is that meaningful nationwide housing stimulus will remain muted in 4Q 2025 due to several factors: - Recent home price declines have been steady but less severe compared to the period before the 2024 housing stimulus [4][10]. - No new risk points have emerged from weakened property sales [4]. - The property sector's role in driving GDP growth has diminished [4]. - Housing is unlikely to be a focus in the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session [4]. 2. **Weak Physical Market Anticipated**: - The market has priced in deeper year-on-year declines in property sales for 4Q based on: - High-frequency data indicating wider year-on-year declines [5]. - Continued deterioration in secondary listing prices and volumes [5]. - Marginal easing in tier 1 cities [5]. - An escalating base effect due to easing measures in September of the previous year [5]. - Any better-than-expected performance from individual developers could be seen as an upside surprise [5]. 3. **Stock Recommendations**: - The call suggests accumulating positions in quality SOEs, particularly **CR Land** and **C&D**, which are expected to outperform due to their strong sales potential amid margin recovery [6][10][11]. - Caution is advised regarding POEs, as their older and depleting landbanks may negatively impact sales and earnings [6]. 4. **Long-term and Tactical Stock Ideas**: - **CR Land (1109.HK)**: Expected business transformation and potential upward revisions on mall rentals [11]. - **C&D (1908.HK)**: Anticipated strong launches of high-margin projects leading to a projected earnings CAGR of over 15% from 2024 to 2027 [11]. - Tactical plays include **COLI (0688.HK)**, **Jinmao (0817.HK)**, and **Yuexiu**, which are seen as fundamental beneficiaries due to their below-peer price-to-book ratios [11][12]. 5. **Consumption Beneficiary**: - **CR Mixc (1209.HK)** is highlighted for its positive same-store sales growth and improving cash collection, which enhances dividend visibility [12]. Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment indicates a cautious outlook for the property market, with expectations of continued challenges in the near term [4][5]. - The call emphasizes the importance of selecting quality SOEs for potential investment, given the anticipated market pull-back [6][10]. - Analysts express a belief that the current environment may present a good entry point for investors looking for quality assets in the property sector [2][6]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call regarding the China Property industry, focusing on the anticipated market conditions and stock performance outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025.

September 2, 2025 09:34 AM GMT China Property | Asia Pacific Weak 1H Results; Positive 2H Guidance While developers reported weak 1H results as expected, they provided positive guidance for 2H and beyond, particularly in development margin recovery and rental income growth. We remain cautious on the physical market, and reiterate our recommendation to stay with quality SOEs that have alpha. Major developers posted weak 1H results as expected (Exhibit 3-12) Overall positive guidance for 2H and beyond Stay de ...

Summary of Greentown China Holdings Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Greentown China Holdings (3900.HK) - **Industry**: Real Estate Development Key Financial Performance - **1H25 Net Profit**: Declined by 90% year-on-year (yoy) to Rmb0.2 billion, aligning with profit alert [1] - **Revenue**: Decreased by 23% yoy to Rmb53.368 billion in 1H25 [9] - **Gross Profit**: Dropped by 21% yoy to Rmb7.159 billion [9] - **Core Profit**: Excluding distribution to PCS, fell by 67% yoy to Rmb1.635 billion [9] - **Impairment Loss**: Increased to -Rmb1.9 billion in 1H25 from -Rmb1.7 billion in 1H24 [1][8] - **Debt Structure**: Total debt increased by 4% from end-24 levels, but short-term debt coverage ratio improved to 2.9X [1][6] Management Guidance and Strategic Outlook - **Contract Sales Guidance**: Revised up for 2025E to approximately flat yoy, supported by Rmb176 billion saleable resources planned for 2H25 [2] - **New Land Acquisitions**: Expected to contribute Rmb50 billion in sales from Rmb91 billion saleable resources [2] - **Portfolio Optimization**: Aimed to fully de-stock Rmb140 billion unsold inventory over the next 3-5 years [2] - **Sales Forecast**: 2025E contract sales forecast raised to Rmb171 billion, flat yoy, with potential upside risk due to new launches [5] Operational Highlights - **Sell-Through Rate**: First-time launched projects achieved an 80% sell-through rate in 1H25, with strong pricing performance [6] - **Land Banking**: Greentown added 35 new projects in 1H25, ranking No.3 nationwide by saleable resources [6] - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: Improved to 12.7% in 1H25, up 1 percentage point yoy [6] Risks and Challenges - **Revenue Contraction**: DP revenue contracted by 22% yoy due to smaller GFA booking [7] - **High SG&A Expenses**: Increased ratio of SG&A expenses against revenue due to low revenue booking [8] - **Impairment Losses**: Continued negative impact from aged inventory sales and impairments [5] Investment Thesis - **Rating**: Buy rating maintained, with a 12-month target price of HK$13.8, based on a 15% discount to end-25E NAV [10][12] - **Market Position**: Greentown is positioned to be among the top-10 companies by profit in China's property sector by 2026E [10] Conclusion - Greentown China Holdings is navigating a challenging environment with significant declines in profit and revenue, but management's strategic focus on land acquisition, sales optimization, and debt management presents a recovery outlook. The company remains a potential investment opportunity with a maintained Buy rating.

June 23, 2025 12:53 PM GMT China Property | Asia Pacific M Update Weekly Database Tracker #25 Key Takeaways Asia Pacific Weekly primary unit sales in 50 cities were -10% YoY (vs. -9% YoY last week) for Industry View In-Line the week ended June 22: Tier 1 city sales were -23% YoY (vs. -8% YoY last week). Tier 2 city sales were -10% YoY (vs. -12% YoY last week). Tier 3 city sales were -1% YoY (vs. 0% YoY last week). Weekly secondary unit sales in 10 cities were -10% YoY (vs. +6% YoY last week): Tier 1 city we ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Property - **Date**: June 3, 2025 - **Region**: Asia Pacific Core Insights and Arguments - **Primary Unit Sales**: Weekly primary unit sales in 50 cities decreased by **17% YoY** compared to a **5% YoY increase** the previous week [2] - **Tier 1 City Sales**: Sales in Tier 1 cities increased by **4% YoY**, down from **29% YoY** last week [2] - **Tier 2 City Sales**: Sales in Tier 2 cities fell by **25% YoY**, a significant drop from a **4% YoY increase** last week [2] - **Tier 3 City Sales**: Sales in Tier 3 cities rose by **2% YoY**, compared to a **10% YoY decline** last week [2] - **Secondary Unit Sales**: Weekly secondary unit sales in 10 cities increased by **2% YoY**, down from **9% YoY** last week [3] - **Tier 1 City Secondary Sales**: Increased by **13% YoY**, slightly down from **15% YoY** last week [3] - **Tier 2 City Secondary Sales**: Decreased by **3% YoY**, compared to a **7% YoY increase** last week [3] - **Sell-Through Rate**: The total sell-through rate was **73%**, up from **68%** last week [3] - **Tier 1 Cities Sell-Through Rate**: Recorded at **61%**, an increase from **55%** [3] - **Tier 2 Cities Sell-Through Rate**: Recorded at **78%**, down from **81%** [3] - **Asking Price Index**: The Centaline six-city secondary asking price tracking index was **20.9%**, down from **21.5%** last week [3] Additional Important Information - **Analyst View**: The industry view is rated as **In-Line** by Morgan Stanley [6] - **Analysts Involved**: Stephen Cheung, CFA and Cara Zhu are the equity analysts covering this sector [6] - **Investment Banking Relationships**: Morgan Stanley expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from several companies in the China property sector, including Country Garden Holdings Company Limited [15] This summary encapsulates the key data and insights from the conference call, highlighting the current trends and performance metrics within the China property market.