Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry but emphasizes the potential for significant alpha generation through the enhanced MSSBT V2 model. Core Insights - The MSSBT V2 model has been developed to capture greater alpha by incorporating both inclusion and exclusion predictions for stocks in the southbound trading scheme, achieving a hit rate of 93% for exclusion predictions and an average absolute return of 25% through a two-way trading strategy [1][3][23]. - Southbound capital inflows reached a record high of $170 billion in 2025, significantly impacting the Hong Kong market and enhancing the liquidity and investor structure for Hong Kong-listed stocks [1][3]. - Historical data indicates that stocks removed from the southbound trading list experience a substantial decline in trading volume and liquidity, with an average daily trading volume drop of 44% and a 28% reduction in southbound ownership within 30 days post-exclusion [2][27][28]. Summary by Sections MSSBT V2 Model - The MSSBT V2 model enhances alpha generation capabilities by predicting both inclusion and exclusion of stocks, with a backtest showing a 93% hit rate for exclusion predictions and an average performance of 11% for predicted stocks [3][20]. - The model suggests that in the upcoming March 2026 review, 44 stocks are expected to be included and 25 excluded from the southbound trading list, recommending investors to build equal-weight positions based on these predictions [3][11][35]. Impact of Southbound Capital - Southbound capital inflows have been a major driver for the Hang Seng Composite Index, with a record net inflow of $170 billion in 2025, continuing into 2026 [1][3]. - The participation of southbound capital is increasingly important for liquidity supply and the investor holding structure of Hong Kong-listed stocks [1]. Historical Performance of Excluded Stocks - Analysis of 285 stocks excluded from the southbound trading list from 2020 to 2025 shows that these stocks typically experience a 44% decline in average daily trading volume and a 28% decrease in southbound ownership within 30 days after exclusion [2][27][28]. - Over 70% of excluded stocks show significant price declines, averaging an 11% drop in the 30 days prior to exclusion, indicating a clear negative impact on stock performance [16][31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The Asian IG space tightened by 2 - 3bps this morning, while some bonds like KUAISH 31 - 36s and SKBTAM 29 were 1 - 2bps wider [3] - The IPT of new SHUION 29 at 10.625% is considered fair, and the proposed new issue and tender offer by Shui On Land should lengthen its maturity profile and reduce near - term refinancing pressure [7][9] - In the Chinese properties space, CHJMAO, DALWAN, FUTLAN/FTLNHD, GRNCH, and LNGFOR are favored [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - Last Friday, the new SNBAB 6.15 Perp was down 0.4pt from RO at par; KUAISH 31 - 36s opened heavy and initially widened 3 - 5bps, with the 5yr tranche closing at RO level and the 10yr tranche 4bps wider [2] - MEITUA curve traded softly, widening 1 - 2bps, while FRESHK curve outperformed and tightened 5 - 8bps; TW lifers were 1 - 2bps wider [2] - SHUION launched a tender offer for USD400mn SHUION 26 and circulated 10.625% IPT for a new USD bond; NWDEVL/VDNWDL complex was up 0.2 - 1.0pt; FAEACO 12.814 Perp/LASUDE 26 gained 0.5 - 0.6pt [2] - EHICAR 26 - 27 increased by 0.4 - 0.5pt; DALWAN 28 was 0.2pt lower; VNKRLE 27 - 29 rose 2.4 - 2.5pts; LNGFOR 27 - 32 increased by 0.4 - 0.8pt [2] - In the Korean space, KDB 27 - 31s and EIBKOR 29 FRNs tightened 1 - 2bps; AU and JP IG credits closed 1 - 4bps tighter; in the Middle East, there was block - size trading on FABUH 34s and PBs were buying FABUH FRNs; in SE Asia, BBLTB sub - curve was 2 - 5bps tighter; GLPSP Perps rose 1.8pts [2] - IHFLIN 27 - 30s/VEDLN 28 - 33s edged 0.2 - 0.8pt higher; MEDCIJ 26 - 30s and the ReNew Energy complex were unchanged to 0.4pt higher [2] Morning Market Update (19 Jan 2026) - Asian IG space was 2 - 3bps tighter this morning, KUAISH 31 - 36s and SKBTAM 29 were 1 - 2bps wider; SOFTBK 65/EHICAR 26 were down 0.6 - 0.7pt; PMBROV 30 edged 0.6pt higher [3] - SHUION 26 was 2.2pts higher this morning; the IPT of new SHUION 29 at 10.625% is fair [3][7] - China Oil and Gas launched a tender offer for CHIOIL 4.7 06/30/26 of USD361mn at par and mandated concurrent USD bond issuance, with the offer expiring on 26 Jan '26 4pm GMT, and the bond was unchanged this morning [3] Top Performers and Underperformers - Top performers include VNKRLE 3.975 11/09/27 (up 2.5), VNKRLE 3 1/2 11/12/29 (up 2.4), ADSEZ 5 08/02/41 (up 2.0), GLPSP 4 1/2 PERP (up 1.8), COGARD 5 12/31/32 (up 1.8) [4] - Top underperformers include TENCNT 3.29 06/03/60 (down 0.8), CNPCCH 5.95 04/28/41 (down 0.7), HAOHUA 3.7 09/22/50 (down 0.7), APAAU 5 3/4 09/16/44 (down 0.7), SINOPE 3.68 08/08/49 (down 0.7) [4] Macro News Recap - Last Friday, S&P was down 0.06%, Dow was down 0.17%, and Nasdaq was down 0.06%. UST yield was higher, with 2/5/10/30 - year yields at 3.59%/3.82%/4.24%/4.83% [6] Desk Analyst Comments on SHUION - Shui On Land proposes to issue a 3NC1.5 Reg S USD senior unsecured bond (unrated) guaranteed by SOL, and the IPT of new SHUION 29 at 10.625% is fair considering peer valuation and tenor differential [7] - The net proceeds of the new bond will fund the tender offer for SHUION 5.5 06/29/26 of USD400mn, with a tender price of 100.25. SOL may prioritize holders subscribing to the new bond, and tender settlement is conditional on new bond issuance [8] - Despite sector headwinds, SOL honors offshore obligations, having redeemed two USD bonds totaling USD990mn since Aug '24. The new issue and tender offer should lengthen maturity and reduce refinancing pressure. The analyst is neutral on SHUION 5.5 06/29/26 [9] Offshore Asia New Issues - No offshore Asia new issues were priced today [13] - Shui On Land has a pipeline to issue a USD bond with a 3NC1.5 tenor, 10.625% coupon, and unrated [14] News and Market Color - On last Friday, 89 credit bonds were issued onshore with an amount of RMB63bn. Month - to - date, 948 credit bonds were issued with a total of RMB755bn raised, a 29.3% yoy decrease [17] - Fitch upgraded DWCM and Wanda Commercial Properties (Hong Kong) to CC from RD [17] - Media reported eHi Car plans a LME in 1H26 for EHICAR 7 09/21/26 of USD269mn and seeks RMB300 - 500mn syndicated loans [17] - ReNew Energy Global to hold investor meetings/calls to market USD 144A/Reg S bonds [17] - Sands Macao launched 'Pearl Gaming Room' targeting mass - market bet sizes [17] - Media reported Vanke reassured bondholders it can make 40% upfront payment for domestic bonds [17]