证券研究报告 | 2026年02月28日 港股投资周报 资源股反弹，港股精选组合年内相对恒指超额 4.08% 核心观点 金融工程周报 港股精选组合绩效回顾 本周，港股精选组合绝对收益-0.11%，相对恒生指数超额收益-0.93%。 本年，港股精选组合绝对收益 7.98%，相对恒生指数超额收益 4.08%。 港股市场创新高热点板块跟踪 我们根据分析师关注度、股价相对强弱、股价路径平稳性、创新高连续性等 角度在过去 20 个交易日创出过 250 日新高的股票池中筛选出平稳创新高股 票。 近期，建滔积层板等股票平稳创出新高。 按照板块来看，创新高股票数量最多的是周期板块，其次为制造、消费、科 技、大金融和医药板块，具体个股信息可参照正文。 港股市场一周回顾 宽基指数方面，本周港股通 50 指数收益最高，累计收益 1.12%；恒生科技 指数收益最低，累计收益-1.41%。 行业指数方面，本周原材料业行业收益最高，累计收益 4.81%；医疗保健业 行业收益最低，累计收益-4.95%。 概念板块方面，本周彩票指数概念板块收益最高，累计收益 35.29%；基础 大模型指数概念板块收益最低，累计收益-27.30%。 南向资金 ...

数据显示，南向资金2025年净买入额为1.4万亿港元（折合2000亿美元左右），环比上一年增长 73.89%，也是2014年沪深港通开通以来年度最高记录，南向资金的涌入为2025年港股科技资产的估值 修复起到了关键作用。高盛甚至预计，南向资金2026年净买入额可能再创新高。 逢低关注聚焦港股通相关ETF，在南向资金定价权提升的趋势下，港股通标的或将有更大的弹性。如港 股通科技ETF基金（159101.SZ）、港股通互联网ETF基金（520910.SH），成分股聚焦港股通标的，如 阿里巴巴-W、腾讯控股、小米集团-W、美团-W、快手-W。港股通相关ETF同样在内地证券交易所上 市，并支持T+0日内灵活回转交易，为A股投资者提供低门槛、免开跨境户和免换汇的便利。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 2月27日（周五），恒生科技指数回暖，南向资金掉头"做多"港股市场，半日净流入25亿港元，午后更 是加速，截至15:40，距离港股收盘不到半小时之际，南向资金净流入超103亿港元。 南向资金指内地资金通过沪港通、深港通两大通道，投资纳入港股通范围的相关标的。连续回调后，港 股科技当前拥挤度处于相对低位、估值仍处合理分位；1月机 ...

每经AI快讯，2月27日，截至目前，南向资金净买额达100亿港元。 ...

每经AI快讯，2月26日，截至目前，南向资金净卖出额达80亿港元。 ...

来源：滚动播报 南向资金净卖出额达70亿港元。 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，2月26日，截至目前，南向资金净卖出额达50亿港元。 ...

然后两轮方面的话到了2月8号的话市场就融资预额是2.64万亿元是叫上前期高铁石油所给我的融销预额是166亿元仍然是不是很高然后整个两轮交易额占到全益的这个比例是9.23 本期的话两轮表现是净流出519亿元较上期的净流出69亿元的话是增加了宽比扩大的450亿元当前的话两轮资金是连续三周出现的净流出迹象表明市场投资情绪正在从高点逐步降温两轮交易额占A股的生肖比重也是占了9%附近反映当前两轮资金的参与度是有所下滑的 然后这个是具体的行业方面可以看到流出比较多的重灾区的包括商业原料制造消费然后流出比较小的尤其是金融房产服务也就是前期流入上来的时候也是比较弱一点所以这边咱们也能看到五个方面的行业其实都在流出的这样一个情况的然后中度方面来看的话各股方面的话流入比较多的包括重庆国际 互联网黄金重庆许创中国国际银行网速科技那么流出比较多的包括新一称 贵州茅台 南极科技东东银行还有紫禁矿业 然后这个是一张准指的表格情况那么本期的话是这个本期就是春节前的那一周资金供给端的合计是负责150亿元然后资金的这个需求端是1020亿元所以其实整个市场的这个资金是净流出了大概是711亿元 然后分项上来看的话这个偏股型的公募的这个新华份额是回 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry but emphasizes the potential for significant alpha generation through the enhanced MSSBT V2 model. Core Insights - The MSSBT V2 model has been developed to capture greater alpha by incorporating both inclusion and exclusion predictions for stocks in the southbound trading scheme, achieving a hit rate of 93% for exclusion predictions and an average absolute return of 25% through a two-way trading strategy [1][3][23]. - Southbound capital inflows reached a record high of $170 billion in 2025, significantly impacting the Hong Kong market and enhancing the liquidity and investor structure for Hong Kong-listed stocks [1][3]. - Historical data indicates that stocks removed from the southbound trading list experience a substantial decline in trading volume and liquidity, with an average daily trading volume drop of 44% and a 28% reduction in southbound ownership within 30 days post-exclusion [2][27][28]. Summary by Sections MSSBT V2 Model - The MSSBT V2 model enhances alpha generation capabilities by predicting both inclusion and exclusion of stocks, with a backtest showing a 93% hit rate for exclusion predictions and an average performance of 11% for predicted stocks [3][20]. - The model suggests that in the upcoming March 2026 review, 44 stocks are expected to be included and 25 excluded from the southbound trading list, recommending investors to build equal-weight positions based on these predictions [3][11][35]. Impact of Southbound Capital - Southbound capital inflows have been a major driver for the Hang Seng Composite Index, with a record net inflow of $170 billion in 2025, continuing into 2026 [1][3]. - The participation of southbound capital is increasingly important for liquidity supply and the investor holding structure of Hong Kong-listed stocks [1]. Historical Performance of Excluded Stocks - Analysis of 285 stocks excluded from the southbound trading list from 2020 to 2025 shows that these stocks typically experience a 44% decline in average daily trading volume and a 28% decrease in southbound ownership within 30 days after exclusion [2][27][28]. - Over 70% of excluded stocks show significant price declines, averaging an 11% drop in the 30 days prior to exclusion, indicating a clear negative impact on stock performance [16][31].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that as of February 13, southbound funds have recorded a net inflow exceeding 18 billion Hong Kong dollars [1]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market has been experiencing continuous adjustments, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index declining consecutively, approaching recent low points [1] - Sectors such as gold, non-ferrous metals, and technology have seen widespread declines [1] ETF Performance - Major ETFs listed in mainland China, including the largest Hang Seng ETF (159920), Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180), and Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330), have followed the index adjustments, with significant increases in trading volume [1] Capital Flow - Southbound capital has accelerated its inflow, with net inflows exceeding 11 billion HKD as of February 13 at 15:00 [1] - According to Everbright Securities, southbound capital is transitioning from speculative traders to a pricing anchor in the Hong Kong stock market, playing a core role in industry rotation, sector allocation, and market valuation formation [1]