It might seem like ages ago that One Big Beautiful Bill Act was signed into law by President Donald Trump on July 4, but most of the bill will kick into effect starting in January, and there are considerable implications for markets. The tax and spending legislation should give a boost to what Manish Kabra, the chief US equity strategist at Société Générale, calls the "other half" of the S&P 500 index, or more traditionally cyclical sectors outside the tech and AI space.Ahead of the new year, Kabra compil ...

Consumer Spending and Market Dynamics - The recent consumer spending data indicates a potential beginning of a Santa Claus rally, with the Dow advancing 66 points and the NASDAQ surging 1.38% [2] - Consumer spending, which constitutes two-thirds of the economy, has shown signs of improvement, particularly as inflation rates decline [4][8] - Retail performance has been mixed, with Walmart performing well due to its strategy of keeping prices low, while other retailers like Nike are struggling [3][11] Inflation Trends - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) has fallen to a four-year low, suggesting that inflation may have peaked and is starting to decline positively [8][9] - Various costs, including gasoline and used car prices, are decreasing, which could enhance consumer spending power [9][10] - Home prices are also reportedly coming down, with some average selling prices now below 2019 levels [10] Technology Sector Insights - The technology sector has faced skepticism regarding unlimited data spending, particularly with Oracle raising $18 billion for data center buildouts [5][6] - OpenAI is attempting to raise $100 billion at an increased valuation of $830 billion, which could support aggressive data center expansion and positively impact stocks like Nvidia and Broadcom [6][7] - The market has shown a broadening rally beyond tech, with significant gains in financials and autos, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [16][22] Retail Sector Performance - Retail stocks have seen positive movements, with companies like Darden, Texas Roadhouse, and Target reporting gains [12] - Amazon's e-commerce platform remains a significant contributor to its overall performance, despite the focus on Amazon Web Services [13] - The overall retail sector is poised for growth, coinciding with the holiday season and improving consumer sentiment [16]

CNBC's Jim Cramer reviewed Thursday's market action, telling investors that gains in consumer-oriented companies are propelling stocks higher despite losses from Big Tech names — whose enormous spending on artificial intelligence is drawing scrutiny."Retail is such a huge portion of this economy, it can mask the questionable kinds of transactions we've been seeing at the highest level of tech," he said.The S&P 500 snapped its four-day losing streak on Thursday, finishing the session up 0.79%. The Nasdaq Com ...

Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) operates as a leading omni-channel specialty retailer specializing in premium home furnishings, kitchenware, and decor. Headquartered in San Francisco, California, the company oversees a portfolio of iconic brands such as Williams Sonoma, Pottery Barn, West Elm, and Rejuvenation. It delivers products through e-commerce platforms, catalogs, and international franchises, prioritizing cooking essentials, furniture, bedding, and custom furnishings. The company has a market capital ...

December 15, 2025 05:01 AM GMT US Equity Strategy | North America Weekly Warm-up: Fed Actions Support Our "Run It Hot" Thesis, but Are They Enough? The Fed executed a slightly less "hawkish" cut than expected and surprised by restarting asset purchases—a bullish signal, supporting our views, but liquidity proxies traded poorly on Friday. If this continues, it'll keep us focused on the near-term risk the Fed may not be doing enough…yet. M Idea Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Michael J Wilson Equity Strategist M.Wil ...

MILAN — “Imagine what our performance will look like in a robust housing market,” was the notion RH chief executive officer Gary Friedman pondered during the third-quarter conference call on Thursday. Despite inflationary and tariff pressures and a decline in the purchase of new homes to furnish and decorate, top U.S. home brands persevered this year. Home and furniture giants like RH, Williams Sonoma and Arhaus posted positive third-quarter results. Williams Sonoma saw its third-quarter revenues hit a rec ...

Group 1 - Retailers are extending discounts on various goods, including sports gear and books, to attract price-sensitive consumers amid rising costs and tariffs [2][3] - The average size of discounts on Amazon has slightly decreased from 2024 to 2025, with markdowns rarely exceeding 5% [3] - Major retailers like Target and Lowe's are promoting sales and encouraging consumers to take their time with purchases [5][9] Group 2 - Merchants are providing clear deadlines for holiday orders to ensure timely delivery, with cut-off dates varying by retailer [6] - Up to 20% of items may be available at their lowest prices of the year leading up to Christmas, with average reductions around 20% [7] - Heavily discounted categories include toys, books, games, and apparel, which are expected to remain well discounted [8][9]

Core Insights - Investors reacted positively to RH's recent performance, with the stock rising nearly 6% after the third-quarter earnings report, despite a bottom-line miss and guidance cuts [1] Financial Performance - RH's net revenue for the third quarter increased by 9% year-over-year to $884 million, while net income rose by 4% to $36.3 million [2] - The company slightly exceeded the average analyst estimate for revenue but missed the adjusted net income estimate [4] - Non-GAAP profitability per share decreased to $1.71 from $2.48 in the previous year [2] Market Position - CEO Gary Friedman noted that RH is gaining market share from various segments, including fragmented design showrooms and regional high-end furniture stores [4] - RH's revenue performance in the third quarter was favorable compared to competitors like Wayfair (up 8%), West Elm (up 4%), and Ethan Allen Interiors (down 5%) [4] Guidance Adjustments - RH adjusted its full-year guidance for 2025, now expecting revenue growth of 9% to 9.2% for 2024, down from a previous range of 9% to 11% [6] - The adjusted operating margin forecast was lowered to 11.6% to 11.9%, compared to the previous 13% to 14% [6] - The forecast for free cash flow remains unchanged at $250 million to $300 million [6] Market Data - RH's current market capitalization is $2.9 billion, with a gross margin of 44.65% [6]

The Zacks Retail-Home Furnishings industry shows cautious improvement despite ongoing macro pressures. High mortgage rates and weak housing turnover continue to suppress big-ticket spending, though premium categories supported by higher-income shoppers are holding up. Despite economic headwinds and tariff concerns, the industry’s tech-driven evolution signals a favorable long-term outlook. Companies combining digital innovation with strong branding and service integration are well-positioned to outperform i ...

Core Insights - RH, formerly known as Restoration Hardware, is set to report its third-quarter fiscal 2025 results on December 11, with previous quarter results showing adjusted EPS and net revenues missed estimates by 8.2% and 0.7%, respectively, but grew year-over-year by 73.4% and 8.3% [1][2] Earnings Performance - RH's earnings have topped consensus estimates in one of the last four quarters, with the average surprise being -0.14 [2][3] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal third-quarter EPS is $2.13, indicating a decline from the year-ago EPS of $2.48, while net revenues are expected to reach $883 million, reflecting an 8.8% year-over-year increase [3][4] Revenue and Growth Expectations - For fiscal 2025, RH anticipates a 10% increase in net revenues and a 68.5% growth in its bottom line [4] - The current quarter's revenue growth is expected to be between 8% and 10% year-over-year, with adjusted operating margins projected to decline to 12-13% from 15% in the previous year [15] Market Trends and Expansion - RH operates in the luxury home furnishing market, which is experiencing resilience despite a depressed housing market, driven by demand for high-end furnishings [6][8] - The company is expanding its gallery format and premium positioning, with strong openings in Europe and plans for further expansion in London and Milan by 2026 [7][9] Sourcing and Production Strategy - RH is reducing its reliance on China for sourcing, expecting to decrease receipts from 16% to 2% by the fiscal fourth quarter, while increasing domestic production, particularly in upholstered furniture [11][12] - By the end of fiscal 2025, approximately 52% of upholstery will be produced in North Carolina, with additional production in Italy and Mexico [11] Challenges and Market Conditions - The company faces challenges from tariffs, a weak housing market, and macroeconomic uncertainties, which are impacting demand and increasing costs [13][14] - RH is investing heavily in market-share capture and promotional activities, which are affecting margins, alongside start-up costs from international expansion [14] Valuation and Stock Performance - RH stock is currently trading at a forward P/E ratio of 12.43, which is lower than competitors like Williams-Sonoma and Arhaus [20] - Despite the attractive valuation, RH has underperformed compared to peers in the past three months, reflecting broader market challenges [18][19] Investment Outlook - The company is balancing long-term growth opportunities with near-term pressures, supported by strong demand for luxury home furnishings and international expansion efforts [21] - However, ongoing macroeconomic headwinds and execution risks suggest a cautious approach for new investors, while existing investors may consider retaining their positions [24]