报道称，卢卡申科提醒说，俄罗斯现在拥有，过去也有打击泽连斯基某一官邸的能力。 卢卡申科说："在第一次应用'榛树'导弹后，一些人向普京提议称，应当对这些恐怖分子进行二次打 击，甚至打击决策中心。普京坚决驳回了这种想法。" 参考消息援引俄罗斯卫星社2025年12月31日报道，白俄罗斯总统卢卡申科表示，俄罗斯总统普京早前坚 决驳回了打击基辅决策中心的提议。 原标题：《"一些人向普京提议打击基辅决策中心"》 编辑：孙婧怡 责编：马学玲 俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫2025年12月29日表示，基辅政权于12月29日凌晨使用91架无人机对位于诺夫哥罗德 州的俄罗斯总统官邸实施恐怖袭击，所有无人机都被俄防空系统摧毁，无人员伤亡。拉夫罗夫指出，俄 方无意退出围绕乌克兰问题与美国进行的谈判进程，但俄方将重新审视谈判立场。 来源：参考消息 ...

上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 现货白银大涨后跳水 12月29日，现货白银大跳水，现跌近5%，此前一度涨近6%；现货黄金失守4500美元关口，现跌 近1%。 | W | 伦敦金现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | 4488.730 | 昨结 4532.410 | | 开盘 4532.410 | | | -43.680 -0.96% | 总量(kg) 0.00 | | 现手 | O | | 最高价 4550.520 | 持 仓 | 0 | 外 盘 | 0 | | 4481.865 最低价 | 增 仓 | 0 | 内 盘 | 0 | | 4744 | 五日 日K 周K 月K 更多 | | | | | 叠加 | | 均价: -- | 盘口 | | | 4582.955 | | 1.12% | 卖1 4488.910 | 0 | | | | | 买1 4488.730 | 0 | | | | | 08:28 4489.105 0 | | | 532.410 ...

莫斯科的另外两个机场——多莫杰多沃机场和茹科夫斯基机场——未受影响。 2025.12. 29 本文字数：788，阅读时长大约2分钟 据参考消息，德新社12月28日报道，俄罗斯当局称， 乌克兰通过无人机袭击莫斯科，暂时让俄首都 的空中交通陷入瘫痪，在全国假期开始前让数百架航班停飞。 俄航空当局发言人称，莫斯科的谢列梅捷沃机场和伏努科沃机场有数小时无法进行飞机起降。俄罗斯 新闻社报道说， 超300架航班被迫取消或发生延误，约70架飞机转降其他机场。 莫斯科市长谢尔盖·索比亚宁先前通报，俄方拦截了约30架乌克兰无人机。俄国防部则称，俄罗斯境 内共击落273架无人机。与往常一样，该部门未提供任何有关损失的消息。 各航空公司也通知了乘客有关圣彼得堡及其他城市的航班时刻调整情况。俄罗斯国际航空公司28日 上午宣布，转降其他机场的飞机预计将于当日陆续降落莫斯科，并补充称乘客与机组人员均已得到妥 善安置。 航班运行预计于28日晚些时候恢复正常。受无人机威胁影响，数以千计的乘客反复滞留机场。 特朗普指出，当前俄乌谈判中仍存在"一到两个非常棘手的问题"。不过，他重申整体谈判方向是积 极的，并称美乌安全保障安排"接近95%完成"， ...

当地时间12月28日，美国总统特朗普在佛罗里达州海湖庄园会见乌克兰总统泽连斯基后表示，美方在会 谈结束后已同英国、德国、北约及欧盟等多位欧洲领导人进行沟通，并称相关交流"非常顺利"。 特朗普称，各方就结束俄乌冲突取得"非常大的进展"，相关讨论已覆盖"接近95%的关键议题"，并形容 当前进展已达到"非常接近达成协议"的阶段。 特朗普还称，美方此前已就相关问题与俄罗斯总统普京进行了深入沟通，当天的会谈同样"非常深入"。 特朗普还表示，未来几周将继续就相关议题保持密集沟通。 特朗普表示，在俄乌谈判中，就顿巴斯问题"尚未达成一致"，仍是当前需要"磨合解决"的关键议题之 一。他表示，乌克兰与俄罗斯必须就顿巴斯问题"把分歧理顺"，但他同时强调，双方"距离解决这一问 题已经更近"。 特朗普指出，当前俄乌谈判中仍存在"一到两个非常棘手的问题"。不过，他重申整体谈判方向是积极 的，并称美乌安全保障安排"接近95%完成"，尽管他本人不愿过度强调具体百分比。 此外，特朗普表示，在合适时机不排除举行其本人、俄罗斯总统普京和乌克兰总统泽连斯基参加的三方 会晤，并称自己当天与普京进行了长时间通话，就多项实质问题展开讨论。他同时表示，如果 ...

摘要： 年报 2025 年 12 月 年报 2025-12 2026 铝价走势可能主要受到以下因素影响： 1. 美联储货币政策：2026 年下半年美联储可能再次迎来降息周期，可能 带动有色金属新一轮上涨，具体降息时点值得重点关注。 2. 关税影响：美国对铜征收关税导致大量囤积现货铜，是铜价大涨的刺 激因素之一。而目前美国对铝关税政策与铜类似，如果后续关税政策改变导致 大量囤积现货铝，可能导致全球范围内铝现货供需出现失衡，极大影响铝价。 3. 俄乌谈判情况：如果俄乌谈判能够很快迎来关键性进展的话，可能导 致全球能源价格进一步下降和电解铝流通成本降低，利空铝价。 4. 中美等主要国家经济数据：国内房地产行业暂未看到复苏迹象，汽车 行业增量有限，制造业面临一定压力，而欧美经济已经到达衰退边缘，中长期 铝现货消费可能延续弱势。 5. 现货供需：受到国内房地产行业不景气、美欧经济增速下滑等因素影 响，真实的铝消费水平可能已经开始下降，目前铝价主要受到能源（电力）价 格和未来 AI 硬件增长预期的支撑。 受到美联储降息刺激，金属价格全线上涨，带动铝价同步大涨。当前铝价 处于历史高位，但下游现货需求并不理想。后续如果投机性 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates for the third consecutive time, and the short - term volatility of precious metals will increase. Silver is oscillating upward, but beware of short - term reverse fluctuations after the rate cut is realized [1] - The domestic soda ash market is generally stable, with weak demand and high inventory. It is expected to operate weakly in the short term [2] - Coking coal is greatly affected by supply disturbances. The downstream maintains rigid - demand procurement, with limited upward and downward space [4] - The supply - demand contradiction in the steel market is not obvious recently. The inventory is decreasing, and the short - term steel price may oscillate, but the upside is limited due to weak demand in the off - season [4] - The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is weak. Although the cost supports the price bottom, the upward space of the futures price is limited [5] - The national hog price is mainly stable. It is expected to oscillate within a range, and wait for short - selling opportunities [5] - Palm oil may oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the MPOB report's production - cut expectation [6] - The domestic soybean meal market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to relevant policies and import news [6][7] - The long - term treasury bond oscillates downward, but the downside is limited [7] - Gold has insufficient upward momentum and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [7] - Methanol is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term under the background of high inventory, stable supply and weak demand [8] - Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate in the short term due to increased supply, rising inventory and weak downstream demand [9] - Copper will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern before the Fed's interest - rate decision. The medium - and long - term supply is tight, limiting the price correction space [9][10] - Crude oil is under pressure from supply - demand surplus, and should be treated with a weak - oscillation mindset [10] - PTA may rise after a decline, but be cautious when chasing high prices [11] - Natural rubber is expected to oscillate weakly due to insufficient demand [12] 3. Summaries According to Different Commodities Precious Metals - **Silver**: The Fed may cut interest rates tonight. Silver is oscillating upward, and beware of short - term reverse fluctuations after the rate cut [1] - **Gold**: The dot plot of Fed officials and the future Fed chairperson are the keys to the medium - and long - term trend. Gold has insufficient upward momentum and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [7] Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The national mainstream price is 1258 yuan/ton, with a weak price recently. The supply - demand is stable, but the high inventory is difficult to resolve. It is expected to operate weakly in the short term [2] - **Methanol**: The production in the northwest is decreasing, the price in the Jiangsu market is falling, the inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [8] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is falling, the supply is increasing, the inventory is rising, and the downstream is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [9] - **PTA**: The polyester inventory is low, the load is expected to be stable, but the demand is expected to weaken. PTA may rise after a decline, and be cautious when chasing high prices [11] Energy - **Crude Oil**: The global supply is increasing, and the supply - demand surplus pressures the price. It is expected to oscillate weakly [10] Metals - **Coking Coal**: The downstream maintains rigid - demand procurement, with limited upward and downward space [4] - **Steel (Rebar)**: The supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, the inventory is decreasing, and the short - term price may oscillate, but the upside is limited [4] - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply - demand is weak, and the upward space of the futures price is limited [5] - **Copper**: It will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern before the Fed's interest - rate decision. The medium - and long - term supply is tight, limiting the price correction space [9][10] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The production in Malaysia may decline slightly in November, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [6] - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic market price is falling, the demand is limited, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [6][7] - **Hog**: The price is mainly stable, expected to oscillate within a range. Wait for short - selling opportunities [5] - **Natural Rubber**: The raw material is resistant to price drops, but the demand is insufficient. It is expected to oscillate weakly [12]

12月3日，昨日黄金呈现偏空震荡，亚盘开盘即回落，午后在4225附近布局空单后价格下行，美盘时段 跌破4200并下探至4163一线，空单于4180自动止盈，随后金价收复部分跌幅，最终收于4205美元，日线 收出小阴线。 周三（12月3日）当前金价在连续上攻后，进入了典型的多空平衡与预期验证阶段。昨日黄金的冲高回 落与剧烈震荡，清晰揭示了这一特征。市场对美联储12月降息的定价已达极致，概率维持在87%-89%的 高位。这一核心利好已基本被金价消化。市场的关注焦点已从"是否降息"转向"降息路径与节奏"。因 此，任何关于降息幅度、后续步伐或经济韧性的新信号，都可能引发价格波动。 与此同时，俄乌谈判仍在推进，但普京威胁加强军事行动、特朗普对打击贩毒集团的强硬表态，持续为 市场注入避险情绪；此外，特朗普暗示可能提名偏鸽的哈塞特出任下任美联储主席，强化了对长期宽松 环境的想象，对金价构成中长期心理支撑。 从技术上来看，隔夜下跌后拉升反弹，目前亚盘时段有延续，预期短期内技术上的调整需求也还是在 的，而基本面可能会继续激发多头热情，所以短期黄金走势可能会呈现震荡状态，日内上方可关注昨日 高点4230附近压力，下方则还是关注1 ...

Group 1 - The gold market is influenced by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with probabilities maintained above 80% [2] - Geopolitical developments, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, are creating risk-averse sentiment that impacts gold prices [2] - Technically, gold prices are in a high-level consolidation pattern, with key resistance at the $4190-$4200 range and support at $4100-$4110 [2] Group 2 - A trading strategy suggests short positions at the $4190-$4200 range with a target around $4150 and a stop-loss at $4210 [3] - A support strategy indicates long positions in the $4120-$4130 range, targeting $4150-$4190 with a stop-loss at $4107 [3] - Market liquidity may remain thin due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, potentially amplifying price volatility [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - A-share market experienced a volume - shrinking adjustment with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.29% to 3875.26 points, the Shenzhen Component Index falling 0.25%, and the ChiNext Index falling 0.44%. The daily trading volume was 1.72 trillion yuan, down from 1.8 trillion yuan the previous day. In October, the revenue and profit growth rates of industrial enterprises turned negative, with quantity dropping, price stabilizing, and profit margins shrinking [14][15]. - The U.S. stock market was closed for Thanksgiving, and the stock index futures closed flat with light trading. Putin's statement on the peace plan had limited impact on the U.S. stock market [2]. - After a sharp decline in the bond market, the odds of going long improved, and there would be a repair, but the adjustment pressure still existed after the rebound [3]. - For agricultural products like soybeans, the supply - demand situation changed little, with Brazil's expected new - crop output hitting a record high. The market focused on U.S. soybean export sales [4]. - In the black metal sector, the overall inventory data of steel was okay, but the slow destocking of coils suppressed steel prices. Steel prices were expected to fluctuate in the short term [5]. - For energy - chemical products such as float glass, the inventory of float glass manufacturers decreased slightly this week, and the futures price rose due to rumors of production line shutdowns [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (U.S. Stock Index Futures) - Putin publicly discussed the peace plan but there was no final solution. The U.S. stock market was closed for Thanksgiving, and the market trading was light with the stock index futures closing flat. The progress of Russia - Ukraine negotiations had limited impact on the U.S. stock market. It was recommended to maintain a bullish view overall and observe if the 50 - day moving average could provide strong support [11][12]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The State Council executive meeting deployed the promotion of provincial - level overall planning of basic medical insurance. A - shares had a volume - shrinking adjustment. In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 5.5% year - on - year. It was recommended to evenly allocate long positions in various stock indexes [13][14][15][16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 5.5% year - on - year. The central bank conducted a 3564 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 564 billion yuan. After a sharp decline, the bond market might have a short - term repair, but it was still bearish overall [17][18]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA would release the weekly export sales report. The market expected U.S. soybean export sales to increase by 60 - 200 million tons. Brazil's soybean production in the 25/26 season was expected to reach a record 178 million tons. It was recommended to view the futures prices of both domestic and foreign markets with a range - bound perspective and focus on China's soybean purchases and South American weather [19][20]. 2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On November 27, the price of low - calorie steam coal in Indonesia was weak. After the end of winter stockpiling, coal prices were driven by actual supply and demand. It was recommended to pay attention to whether the daily consumption would turn positive after December to support coal prices [21]. 2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - A Canadian mining company was advancing iron ore projects in Ukraine and Canada. Iron ore prices continued to fluctuate widely. With port inventories piling up and demand seasonally declining, iron ore was expected to maintain a range - bound trend [22]. 2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The spot market of port coke fluctuated. For coking coal, supply was increasing while iron - making output decreased slightly. For coke, the market expectation weakened due to falling coking coal prices. It was recommended to focus on downstream restocking [23][24]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The开机 rate of corn starch increased, and inventory continued to decline significantly. It was recommended that starch would likely remain strong in the short term, and mid - short - term spread trading should be range - bound, while it might strengthen in the long - term [24][25]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn inventory of major processing enterprises continued to decline counter - seasonally. The spot price was strong, and the futures price was oscillating at a high level. The 01 contract was expected to be difficult to fall, and it was not recommended to short the 03 and 05 contracts against the trend [26]. 2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The production schedule of major white - goods in December 2025 decreased. The steel inventory data was okay, but the slow destocking of coils suppressed steel prices. It was recommended to view steel prices with a range - bound perspective [27][28][29][30]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A 30,000 - ton polysilicon plant would be built in Morocco. The spot price of polysilicon was mainly determined by the game between policy and fundamentals. It was recommended that the futures main contract might trade between 50,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to range - bound trading opportunities [31][32][34]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The first - phase project of an industrial silicon project in Inner Mongolia reached an important milestone. The supply and demand situation of industrial silicon deteriorated, and it was recommended that the short - term futures price might oscillate between 8800 - 9500 yuan/ton [35][36]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead cash - 3 - month spread was at a discount. The social inventory of lead ingots decreased. It was recommended that short - position holders should look for opportunities to stop losses on dips, and it was better to wait and see for arbitrage and cross - border trading [37][38]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc cash - 3 - month spread was at a premium. The domestic social inventory of zinc decreased. It was recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, hold long - short spread positions for spread trading, and exit cross - border arbitrage positions in a timely manner [39][40][41]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia simplified the RKAB approval process. A project's production was expected to decline. The nickel market was still in surplus, but the current futures price was below the cost. It was recommended that previous short - position holders could gradually stop losses and consider going long at low prices [42][43][44]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium project in Ghana made progress. The production of domestic lithium carbonate decreased, and the inventory also decreased. It was not recommended to chase long positions, and short positions could be lightly established on the right - hand side if production resumed and demand declined in the off - season. A long - position strategy was recommended in the long - term [45][46]. 2.14 Energy - Chemical Products (Natural Gas) - U.S. natural gas inventory decreased more than expected, but further price increases were difficult due to warm - weather forecasts and weak overseas demand. NYMEX natural gas still faced downward pressure [47][48]. 2.15 Energy - Chemical Products (Carbon Emissions) - The closing price of CEA increased by 1.02% on November 27. The impact of the carry - over policy might be more emotional than real. It was recommended to wait and see [49][50][51]. 2.16 Energy - Chemical Products (Styrene) - The weekly production and capacity utilization of styrene decreased. The trading focus shifted back to domestic supply and demand. The inventory in East China was expected to increase, and it was recommended to pay attention to the implementation of pure - benzene maintenance plans and treat it as range - bound in the short term [51][52][53]. 2.17 Energy - Chemical Products (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased due to weak demand. The supply was abundant, and inventory continued to accumulate. The short - term futures price was expected to remain weak, and attention should be paid to whether supply would shrink due to profit compression [54][55][56]. 2.18 Energy - Chemical Products (PVC) - The price of PVC powder had a narrow - range adjustment. The supply was expected to increase, and demand was suppressed by the weak real - estate market. It was recommended to short near - month contracts on rallies [57][58][59]. 2.19 Energy - Chemical Products (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers decreased this week. The supply decreased slightly, and demand increased. In the short term, the fundamentals of soda ash had some support, but it was recommended to take a bearish view in the medium - term and short far - month contracts on rallies [60][61][62]. 2.20 Energy - Chemical Products (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass manufacturers decreased slightly this week. The futures price rose due to rumors of production line shutdowns. Attention should be paid to the risk of short - covering rebounds caused by news - related disturbances [63].

Gold - The Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that the U.S. economy requires significant interest rate cuts, as current monetary policy is raising borrowing costs, increasing unemployment, and slowing economic growth. He supports a 50 basis point cut due to recent employment slowdown and declining inflation [1] - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed concerns about the labor market and advocated for another rate cut in December, followed by gradual adjustments in subsequent meetings [1] - Analyst Owen from Baillie Gifford believes the probability of a December rate cut has risen, which is expected to boost gold prices [1] - Technically, gold has been on an upward trend since November 24, maintaining above $4100, with resistance at $4176 and a key support level at $4140 [1] Oil - U.S. Secretary of State Rubio indicated significant progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, with Trump expressing optimism about a potential agreement, contingent on finalizing a ceasefire [2] - If a ceasefire is achieved, sanctions on Russian oil exports may be lifted, exacerbating the global oversupply risk due to OPEC+ production increases earlier this year [2] - Technically, oil has been in a downward trend since October 24, with strong support around $57, and resistance at $59.60. A drop below $57 could lead to a further decline towards $55 [2] Dollar Index - U.S. September retail sales data showed a 0.2% increase, below the previous 0.6% and the expected 0.4%. The September PPI year-on-year rate was 2.7%, consistent with expectations [3] - ADP private sector employment data revealed an average weekly layoff of 13,500 employees, an increase of 2,500 from the previous month. The U.S. consumer confidence index for November was reported at 88.7, the lowest since April [3] - Technically, the dollar index fell below the 100 level, with a focus on the important support level at 99.40. A break below this level could indicate a double top formation on the 4-hour chart [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has shifted from a downward trend to a sideways movement, indicating an increased probability of a bottoming out. After three weeks of adjustment, it is approaching a decision point [4] - A breakout above 50100 could signal a new upward trend, while support is noted at 48580 [4] Copper - Copper prices have been fluctuating between $4.85 and $5.22 for the past two and a half months, with a narrowing range indicating an impending directional decision. A breakout above $5.11 could initiate a new upward trend, while a drop below $4.85 may lead to a deeper correction towards $4.63 [6] - The immediate support level is at $4.98 [6]