2025.09. 24 本文字数：888，阅读时长大约2分钟 他在社交媒体发文称，他了解乌克兰和俄罗斯的军事、经济状况，认为持续超过三年半的战事给俄罗 斯制造了经济困境。在欧盟财政支持，特别是北约军事支持下，加上时间和耐心， 回到"这场战争开 始时的原有边界是一个完全可行的选择" 。 他还表示，美国将继续为北约盟国提供武器。 对于 特朗普的这些言论，泽连斯基表示，"这是重大转变，特朗普的帖文（言论）是一个重大转 变"。 来源 | 长安街知事 对于已经延续3年的俄乌冲突，美国总统特朗普近期的公开立场发生了明显转变，展现出对俄罗斯的 不满。 据中国新闻网 综合俄罗斯卫星通讯社报道，特朗普 9月23日表示，他与俄罗斯总统普京的良好私人 关系，出人意料地并未对乌克兰危机的解决进程产生任何影响。 特朗普在纽约联合国大会期间会见法国总统马克龙时说：" 最大的失望，是俄罗斯与乌克兰的局势。 我本以为，得益于我和普京的关系，这是最容易解决的问题，但遗憾的是，这种关系毫无意义。" 当天，特朗普在联合国大会上发言时表示，如果俄罗斯不同意结束乌克兰危机，美国有意对俄罗斯征 收高额关税。他 还要求欧洲国家加入美国对俄制裁行列，称" ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Vice President Vance indicated that imposing new sanctions on Russia to pressure it into ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict is a viable option, with multiple strategies available to exert pressure on Russia [1] Group 1 - Vance stated that during the Trump administration, the focus was on ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict without including U.S. ground troops in Ukraine's security assurances [1] - The U.S. will not deploy ground troops to Ukraine but will continue to play an active role in ensuring that Ukrainians receive necessary security assurances and confidence to halt the conflict [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Secretary of State Rubio revealed details of the U.S.-Russia meeting in Alaska, highlighting that due to U.S. sanctions, the Russian delegation had to pay for fuel in cash while refueling in Alaska [1][3] - Rubio mentioned that despite President Trump's warnings of potential new sanctions if Russia does not agree to a ceasefire, the U.S. currently does not plan to impose additional restrictions [3] - The meeting between Presidents Putin and Trump on August 15 in Anchorage was positively evaluated, but no agreement was reached on issues such as a ceasefire in Ukraine [3] Group 2 - Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov responded to Rubio's comments, stating that the method of payment for fuel, whether cash or otherwise, is not significant [3] - Lavrov emphasized that additional sanctions from Washington could hinder peace talks regarding the Ukraine conflict [3] - President Putin expressed respect for the U.S. stance on ending the Ukraine conflict and hopes for a peaceful resolution [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Secretary of State Rubio revealed that due to sanctions against Russia, the Russian delegation had to pay cash for refueling their aircraft in Alaska, indicating the significant impact of these sanctions on Russia's operations [1]. Group 1: Sanctions Impact - Rubio stated that further sanctions are unlikely to compel Russia to agree to a ceasefire, as they have already faced severe sanctions [1]. - He emphasized that all existing sanctions remain effective and their impacts are still being felt [1]. Group 2: Operational Challenges - The inability to use the U.S. banking system forced the Russian delegation to pay cash for refueling in Alaska [1]. - Rubio indicated that any new sanctions announced by Washington would likely stall peace negotiations [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that President Trump has warned Russia of "very serious consequences" if President Putin does not agree to a ceasefire proposal during their upcoming meeting in Alaska [1] - Trump expressed hope for a trilateral meeting with both Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky if the discussions with Putin go well [2] - The meeting between Trump and Putin is described as a "test meeting," with outcomes that could be either positive or negative [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's warning to President Putin regarding the consequences of not accepting the ceasefire proposal in Ukraine, emphasizing the potential for increased U.S. sanctions if the meeting does not go well [1]. Group 1 - President Trump stated that if President Putin does not accept the ceasefire proposal during their meeting in Alaska, he will face "very serious consequences" [1]. - Trump expressed hope for a trilateral meeting with President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky if the discussions progress positively [1]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that the U.S. may intensify sanctions against Russia if the meeting between Trump and Putin does not yield favorable results [1]. Group 2 - The one-on-one meeting between Trump and Putin is scheduled to take place on August 15 at a military base in Anchorage, Alaska [1]. - Trump referred to the upcoming meeting as a "test meeting," suggesting that the outcomes could be either positive or negative [1].

（文章来源：央视新闻） 针对美国的制裁威胁，俄总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫此前曾表示，俄罗斯经济多年来已形成对制裁的"免疫 力"。 美国总统特朗普与俄罗斯总统普京将于8月15日在美国阿拉斯加州会晤，讨论乌克兰危机。此次会晤将 是2019年在二十国集团峰会期间见面后，特朗普和普京再次面对面会晤。 当地时间13日，美国财政部长贝森特在接受媒体采访时说，如果美国总统特朗普与俄罗斯总统普京的会 晤进展不顺利，美国可能会加大对俄制裁或征收次级关税。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Sideways with a downward bias [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Sideways with a downward bias [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.39% at 2,760 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.92% at 3,463 yuan/ton [1] - After the correction, crude oil prices have shown a weak oscillatory trend recently. The FU and LU futures prices have declined following the cost side, and the expectation of a looser medium-term balance sheet in the oil market potentially suppresses the energy sector [1] - In the high-sulfur fuel oil market, after continuous adjustments to the market structure, short-term contradictions are relatively limited. Currently, spot supply remains abundant, while demand lacks growth momentum. Although power generation demand is boosted by the peak season, it lacks drivers beyond seasonality [1] - In the long term, given the trends of lighter crude oil and refinery upgrades, structural support remains. If the crack spread adjusts sufficiently to attract a significant rebound in refinery demand, the market structure may strengthen again. However, in the short term, the previously accumulated inventory still needs to be digested [1] - Attention should be paid to the progress of the meeting between Russian and US leaders this week. If the negotiation is successful and the US relaxes sanctions on Russia, there is room for an increase in fuel oil supply, and the fundamentals may further loosen [1] - In the low-sulfur fuel oil market, pressure is limited, but there is no overall shortage expectation. Currently, domestic production remains low, and bonded area supply is relatively tight. However, after the tension in overseas diesel eases, the supply of blending components is expected to recover [2] - From a medium-term perspective, as the remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, supply will be released once crack spreads are appropriate. Moreover, the carbon neutrality trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, and there is still significant resistance above the market [2] Group 3: Graphical Information - The report includes multiple graphs showing various fuel oil prices, spreads, and trading volumes, such as Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil spot price, and fuel oil futures prices and trading volumes [4]

Group 1 - The meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin is scheduled for August 15 in Alaska to discuss the Ukraine crisis, marking the first face-to-face meeting since June 2021 and the second since the G20 summit in 2019 [1][2] - Analysts believe that both leaders have political and strategic considerations behind their agreement to meet, despite significant differences remaining among the US, Russia, and Ukraine [3][4] - The meeting is expected to focus on long-term peace solutions for the Ukraine crisis, but it is anticipated to be a challenging process [2][6] Group 2 - From the US perspective, the Trump administration aims to achieve diplomatic success through this meeting to boost domestic political support, especially since there has been little progress on the Ukraine issue since he took office [4][5] - For Russia, the meeting may serve as a means to alleviate economic pressure from US sanctions, particularly as the Trump administration has warned of further sanctions if the Ukraine conflict is not resolved by August 8 [5][6] - Despite the upcoming meeting, experts express skepticism about the potential for a quick resolution to the ongoing differences, as both sides have firmly held positions on key issues, including territorial disputes [6][7]

Group 1 - Russian President Putin expressed interest in a summit with US President Trump, suggesting the UAE as a suitable location for the meeting [1][3] - Putin indicated he is open to meeting Ukrainian President Zelensky but stated that conditions for such a meeting are not yet met [1][3] - US officials, including Trump, have indicated a potential meeting could occur soon, with discussions about a possible trilateral meeting involving Ukraine [1][4] Group 2 - Trump's recent discussions with European leaders and Zelensky suggest he is optimistic about the possibility of a ceasefire agreement [4][5] - US Secretary of State Rubio mentioned that Russia has provided some specific examples of conditions for a ceasefire, which are now being compared with actions from Ukraine and European allies [4][6] - There are concerns that a meeting between Trump and Putin may not yield substantial results, as experts believe it could serve as a political tool for Putin [6][9] Group 3 - The potential for continued US sanctions against Russia remains uncertain, with Trump previously issuing an ultimatum for Russia to end hostilities by August 8 [8] - Analysts suggest that any sanctions imposed by Trump may be symbolic, as the effectiveness of previous sanctions has diminished [8][9] - There is speculation that Putin may use the summit to negotiate terms that would solidify Russia's territorial gains in Ukraine [9]