Group 1: New Zealand and Australia Economic Outlook - Westpac Bank expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to keep the official cash rate unchanged in July, adopting a wait-and-see approach for future rate adjustments [1] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand may allow the market to interpret potential rate changes and will decide based on economic data released before the August monetary policy statement [1] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand might indicate that economic activity in Q1 2025 could exceed expectations, although subsequent indicators show a slowdown in economic momentum [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia did not cut rates in July as widely anticipated, but future rate cuts remain a possibility, contingent on upcoming inflation data [2] - The Reserve Bank of Australia stated that inflation risks have become more balanced, suggesting that while there is no immediate pressure to cut rates, it may be delayed rather than canceled [2] Group 2: Japan's Economic Challenges - Mizuho Securities analysts suggest that the Bank of Japan should maintain its current policy amid external uncertainties, particularly regarding U.S. tariffs [3] - The potential for a 25% tariff on Japanese imports by the U.S. starting August 1 adds uncertainty and could negatively impact Japan's exports and overall economic performance [3] - Mitsubishi UFJ Securities economists believe that U.S. tariffs will challenge Japan's economy, especially in exports and capital investment, prompting the government to consider broader economic stimulus measures [3] - Japan's central bank plans to slow the pace of its bond purchase reduction starting April 2026, considering market stability and participant feedback [3] Group 3: Singapore's Economic Performance - DBS Group economists indicate that Singapore's economy may avoid technical recession in Q2 2025 due to early shipments by export companies, which temporarily supported actual export growth [4] - While short-term export data appears strong due to early deliveries, long-term challenges loom for Singapore's export sectors, particularly electronics and biopharmaceutical manufacturing, due to potential U.S. tariff measures [4]

Group 1 - German factory orders have declined for the first time in four months, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.4% in May, which is weaker than all but one forecast in a Bloomberg survey [1] - Year-on-year, orders still show a growth of 5.3%, indicating that the long-term demand fundamentals have not completely deteriorated [1] - The manufacturing sector in Germany is closely monitoring the progress of trade negotiations between Europe and the U.S., with less than a week remaining before the deadline for an agreement [3] Group 2 - Major companies like Continental and Merck have lowered their earnings expectations due to trade concerns, while others like ZF and Bosch have taken measures such as layoffs and factory closures due to weak demand [3] - Domestic investment goods orders saw a significant month-on-month decline of 12.7%, while overall domestic factory demand decreased by 7.8%, contrasting with a 2.9% increase in foreign orders, reflecting structural differentiation in internal and external demand [3] - The German Ministry of Economic Affairs stated that despite the setback in industrial demand in May, the basic trend still shows an upward trajectory, although order fluctuations may continue due to high trade and geopolitical uncertainties [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian government has announced a summer economic stimulus plan worth 24.44 trillion Indonesian Rupiah (approximately 1.53 billion USD) aimed at boosting consumer spending to achieve a near 5% economic growth target by Q2 2025, in response to a slowdown in economic growth and various external pressures [1][2]. Economic Context - Indonesia's economy grew by 4.87% year-on-year in Q1 2023, marking the lowest growth rate in over three years, influenced by global trade tensions, uncertainties from U.S. tariffs, and weak domestic demand [1]. - The threat of up to 32% tariffs from the U.S. has created significant uncertainty for Indonesian exports, negatively impacting market confidence [1]. - From January to April 2023, foreign capital outflows from the Indonesian stock market reached 50.72 trillion Indonesian Rupiah (approximately 3 billion USD), with the bond market experiencing outflows of over 6.11 trillion Indonesian Rupiah (approximately 375 million USD) [1]. Stimulus Measures - The stimulus plan includes various measures such as: - 20% discount on toll fees for 110 million drivers and 30% discount on train tickets for 2.8 million passengers [2]. - 50% electricity bill discount for 79.3 million households to alleviate living costs and increase disposable income [2]. - Expansion of social assistance to 18.3 million households, providing additional monthly subsidies and free rice [2]. - Wage subsidies for low-income workers earning below 3.5 million Indonesian Rupiah (approximately 215 USD) [2]. Funding Sources - The funding for the stimulus plan will come from public-private partnerships for toll and unemployment insurance discounts, while the remaining funds will be allocated from the government budget [3]. Market Reactions - Mixed reactions from the market and experts, with some questioning the transfer of costs to the private sector, while others view the plan positively as a means to boost market confidence and address economic slowdown [3]. - Analysts believe that despite the challenges, the government's proactive approach could lead to a rebound in economic growth in Q2 2025 [3]. Long-term Challenges - Long-term sustainable development of the Indonesian economy faces challenges such as global trade dynamics, commodity price fluctuations, and structural domestic issues [4]. - Experts suggest that the government should implement structural reforms alongside short-term stimulus measures to enhance economic competitiveness and resilience [4].

Core Viewpoint - Southeast Asian countries, including Indonesia and Thailand, are implementing large-scale economic stimulus plans to mitigate the impact of high U.S. tariffs on their economies [1][2]. Group 1: Indonesia's Economic Stimulus - Indonesia has announced a summer economic stimulus plan worth 24.44 trillion Indonesian rupiah (approximately $1.5 billion) aimed at boosting consumption and economic growth during the school holiday period [2]. - The Indonesian economy is facing challenges, with a GDP growth of only 4.87% year-on-year in the first quarter, the weakest since Q3 2021 [2]. - The Indonesian government expects the economic growth rate to stabilize around 5% in the second quarter, supported by fiscal measures [2]. Group 2: Thailand's Economic Response - Thailand's government has approved an economic stimulus plan with a budget of 157 billion Thai baht, focusing on community economy, tourism, agriculture, infrastructure, and low-interest loans for small businesses [3]. - The Thai economy is also under pressure from weak domestic demand and high household debt, alongside external challenges such as ongoing trade wars [3]. Group 3: Regional Economic Outlook - The region is experiencing a downward revision of GDP growth forecasts due to the impact of U.S. tariffs, with Thailand's growth forecast lowered from 3%-3.5% to 1.8% by the World Bank and IMF [4]. - Malaysia's central bank has indicated that economic growth may fall below the previously predicted range of 4.5%-5.5% due to the adverse effects of U.S. tariffs [4]. - The Philippines reported a first-quarter GDP growth of 5.4%, below the government's target of 6%-8% [4]. Group 4: Central Bank Actions - Central banks in Southeast Asia are responding to economic pressures, with the Philippines expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points due to reduced inflation and uncertainties from U.S. tariffs [5]. - Malaysia is also anticipated to cut interest rates for the first time since May 2023, while providing additional loan guarantees for SMEs affected by U.S. tariffs [5]. - Vietnam is considering extending a VAT reduction measure to support economic growth, which may lead to significant tax revenue losses in the coming years [5]. Group 5: Concerns Over Stimulus Measures - Experts express concerns that excessive fiscal and monetary stimulus could have adverse effects, such as widening the income gap and increasing household debt levels [6][7]. - In Thailand, the cancellation of a digital wallet plan has led to public disappointment, highlighting the potential political ramifications of economic policy changes [7]. - Vietnam's extension of VAT reductions raises concerns about future tax revenue losses, with projected losses of approximately 39.5 trillion Vietnamese dong in the second half of 2025 and 82.2 trillion in 2026 [7].

Group 1 - Indonesia's government has launched an economic stimulus plan worth 24.44 trillion Indonesian rupiah (approximately $1.5 billion) aimed at boosting consumption and economic growth during the school holiday period from June to July [1] - The stimulus plan includes five key policies: transportation discounts, social assistance, wage subsidies, and toll road incentives, with the goal of maintaining a 5% economic growth rate in the second quarter [1] - Economic challenges are evident, with GDP growth projected at 4.87% in Q1 2025, down from 5.04% in Q4 2023 and 5.02% in Q4 2024, alongside rising unemployment and declining consumer purchasing power [2] Group 2 - The summer economic stimulus plan has sparked discussions domestically, reflecting the government's confidence in achieving the 5% growth target, and emphasizing a long-term strategy to expand domestic demand as a growth engine [3] - The plan aims to enhance the overall investment attractiveness of the Southeast Asian region, showcasing economic resilience, consumer vitality, and industrial upgrades [3] - However, the plan faces challenges due to poor inter-departmental coordination, with several relevant departments unaware of the policy, potentially undermining its effectiveness [3]

Group 1 - Indonesia plans to announce an economic stimulus package on June 5 to boost economic activity and consumer purchasing power, aiming for a GDP growth rate of around 5% this quarter [1] - The stimulus measures are designed to stimulate economic growth by increasing consumption, as stated by the Minister of Economic Coordination, Airlangga Hartarto [1] - The first quarter GDP growth rate for Indonesia was 4.87%, marking the lowest level in over three years, prompting the central bank to lower its growth forecast for 2025 from 4.7%-5.5% to 4.6%-5.4% [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance is still calculating the scale of the stimulus plan, which aims to promote economic growth in the second and third quarters [1]

Economic Stimulus Plan Overview - Thailand's cabinet approved an economic stimulus plan with a budget of 157 billion THB (approximately 34.1 billion RMB) aimed at boosting community economy, tourism, agriculture, and infrastructure development [1] - The plan is part of the fiscal year 2025 budget and primarily funded by the central emergency fund [1] Infrastructure Development - Investment in water infrastructure includes flood prevention during rainy seasons, water storage during dry seasons, and improvements to water supply systems for communities and agricultural areas [1] - Transportation investments focus on resolving traffic bottlenecks, enhancing travel and freight safety, addressing railway and road crossing issues, and upgrading parking areas [1] Tourism Enhancement - The plan includes upgrading tourist attractions, sports facilities, and essential amenities such as restrooms and accommodations [1] - It aims to improve tourist convenience systems and enhance safety measures in major tourist cities, including the installation of CCTV [1] Production Efficiency and Export Promotion - The initiative seeks to enhance production efficiency and promote Thai product exports by supporting farmers and SMEs in adopting advanced technologies and adjusting planting areas [2] - Financial support and credit will be provided to exporters, along with the development of digital infrastructure [2] Community Economic Development - The plan emphasizes the development of grassroots economies and increasing educational investments to cultivate talent [3]

泰国刺激计划旨在创造就业和收入分配。 ...

Group 1 - The Japanese ruling coalition officials unanimously agree on the necessity of drafting a supplementary budget in the fall to fund a new stimulus plan [1] - The government led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is under pressure to take additional measures before the scheduled Senate elections in July [1] - The aim of the supplementary budget is to mitigate the economic impact of increased tariffs imposed by the United States [1]

Group 1 - Japan's real wages decreased by 2.1% in March, marking the third consecutive month of negative growth due to inflation outpacing wage increases [1] - The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare attributes the negative real wage growth to the impact of rising prices, despite some wage increases from last year's labor negotiations [1] - Concerns are raised regarding the sustainability of negative real wage growth, particularly with inflation rates exceeding 3% and potential adverse effects from U.S. tariff policies on Japanese companies [1] Group 2 - The Japanese government typically opts for direct financial assistance to alleviate the burden on citizens, though this approach faces criticism for being short-term and not addressing underlying issues [2] - Long-term economic stimulus plans or measures from the Japanese government may be delayed until after the upcoming summer House of Councillors election [2]