/ 国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货贵金属专题报告 金银 美联储降息预期摇摆 黄金价值持续 2025 年 11 月 25 日 主要结论 2022 年 12 月 25 日 展望贵金属市场，黄金将在中长期继续展现其独特的配置价值，因全球央行 持续购金的坚实支撑下，叠加货币政策转向、贸易不确定性延续与地缘风险反复 等多重因素共同作用支撑。而当前美联储在降息周期下受制于通胀黏性与经济数 据波动，降息路径可能呈现"走走停停"特征，政策预期的频繁修正将成为影响 贵金属波动节奏的关键因素，短期降息预期摇摆只是限制黄金上行但不构成多头 反转！ 从地缘经贸角度来看，近期全球贸易紧张局势仍持续持久博弈状态，特朗普 政府可能继续推行"TACO 式交易"策略，这种政策的不确定性将持续对全球供 应链构成威胁，为贵金属提供阶段性支撑。此外中东和俄乌冲突呈现"周而复始、 边走边谈"的复杂态势，这种持续不稳定的地缘格局将增加贵金属波动性。 从价格走势来看，COMEX 黄金主力合约或在 3900-4000 美元/盎司附近区间 形成坚实支撑，若能有效站稳 4200 美元附近关口，下一目标位或看至 4400 美元 /盎司附近；对应沪金主力合约 ...

Group 1 - The trade volume affected by tariffs among G20 countries has increased approximately fourfold compared to the previous reporting period, marking the largest increase in WTO trade monitoring history [1][4] - During the period from mid-October 2024 to mid-October 2025, 14.3% of imported goods in G20 countries (approximately $2.599 trillion) are impacted by tariffs and other measures, which is more than four times the previous record of $599 billion [4] - The WTO reported that a total of 185 measures are affecting trade valued at approximately $2.9 trillion, compared to $829 billion in the previous G20 report [4] Group 2 - G20 countries have implemented 184 new trade facilitation measures covering about $2.055 trillion in trade, nearly double the previous report's $1.07 trillion [5] - In the services trade sector, G20 countries introduced 52 new measures, with over two-thirds aimed at promoting trade [5] - The WTO noted that despite rising trade barriers, there is a continued dialogue among members rather than retaliatory actions [5] Group 3 - The WTO economists predict a global goods trade growth rate of 2.4% for 2025, but this forecast has been significantly downgraded to 0.5% for 2026 [6] - Oxford Economics reported a slowdown in global trade growth from 4% in 2025 to 1% in 2026, with U.S. tariffs impacting trade performance differently across countries [7] - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies is expected to have a negative impact on investment, with trade policy uncertainty remaining above long-term averages [7][8]

Group 1: Market Overview - Silver prices experienced a daily increase of 1.60%, reaching $50.72 per ounce, influenced by internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding further interest rate cuts [1] - The longest government shutdown in U.S. history lasted 41 days, causing significant economic pressure, yet optimism about a potential resolution has emerged, raising market risk appetite [3] - Despite improved risk sentiment, gold prices continued to rise, driven by lingering economic concerns and expectations of interest rate cuts [3] Group 2: Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve faces challenges balancing inflation pressures and weak employment, with differing views among its members on the need for further rate cuts [1] - U.S. container cargo imports fell by 7.5% year-on-year in October, with a notable 16.3% drop in goods from China, reflecting ongoing trade uncertainties [4] - The U.S. Treasury yield curve is flattening, indicating investor concerns about rising inflation expectations and the potential pause in the Fed's rate-cutting cycle [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The silver market is currently in an upward price trend, with a support level identified at approximately $49.36 [8] - The MACD indicator shows a bullish trend, although market activity is decreasing, suggesting cautious trading strategies [8] - Suggested trading strategies include positioning for long trades near the support level and short trades at resistance levels, emphasizing a light trading approach [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by weak U.S. economic data and rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, making gold an attractive non-yielding asset for investors [1][3]. Economic Data Impact - A series of disappointing economic indicators from the U.S. has shattered market optimism about economic strength, particularly a significant drop in October job numbers and a decline in consumer confidence [3]. - The market now assigns a 64% probability to a rate cut in December, increasing to approximately 77% by January [3]. Federal Reserve Divergence - There is a notable division within the Federal Reserve regarding the approach to further rate cuts, with some members advocating caution due to inflation concerns, while others support aggressive cuts [4][5][6]. - This internal debate adds uncertainty to the gold market, but the prevailing low-rate expectations are likely to support gold prices [6]. Government Shutdown and Market Sentiment - The prolonged U.S. government shutdown has created significant economic strain, but recent legislative progress suggests a potential resolution, which has improved market risk appetite [7]. - Despite this positive sentiment, gold prices continue to rise due to lingering economic damage and persistent rate cut expectations [7]. External Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Gold prices are also influenced by external factors such as tariffs and global trade uncertainties, with a notable decline in U.S. imports from China [8]. - The flattening of the U.S. yield curve and rising short-term rates reflect investor concerns about inflation, further boosting gold's appeal as a safe haven [8]. Future Outlook - The outlook for gold remains optimistic, with predictions suggesting prices could range between $4,200 and $4,300 by year-end, and potentially reach $5,000 in Q1 of the following year [9]. - Continued low interest rates, economic uncertainty, and geopolitical trade tensions are expected to drive gold's performance [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Mexico has lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.25%, aligning with expectations, and indicated potential for further rate cuts while considering all factors affecting inflation [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The Bank of Mexico will assess whether to continue lowering the benchmark interest rate, taking into account all factors influencing inflation [1] - The central bank has slightly raised its core inflation forecasts for the end of this year and early 2026, but still expects inflation to return to its 3% target by the third quarter of next year [1] Group 2: Economic Context - Weak economic data has raised concerns about a potential recession, prompting the central bank's decision to lower interest rates [1] - The statement released by policymakers removed previous references to "further adjustments" in borrowing costs, indicating a more cautious approach moving forward [1]

Core Insights - The increase in orders indicates a recovery in demand following a period of trade uncertainty that negatively impacted the market during the summer [1] Group 1 - The rise in orders signifies a rebound in demand [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, consolidated operating income decreased by $81.3 million year-over-year to $161 million, primarily due to lower contributions from Ocean Transportation and Logistics [14] - Net income decreased by 32.3% year-over-year to $134.7 million, and diluted earnings per share decreased by 28% year-over-year to $4.24 per share [14] - Interest income was $7.6 million in the quarter compared to $10.4 million in the same period last year [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Ocean Transportation, operating income was lower year-over-year due to decreased freight rates and container volume in the China service [4] - Logistics operating income in Q3 was $13.6 million, down $1.8 million from the previous year, primarily due to lower contributions from freight forwarding, transportation brokerage, and supply chain management [12][13] - Container volume in Hawaii increased by 0.3% year-over-year, while in Guam, it decreased by 4.2% year-over-year [5][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Container volume in the China service decreased by 12.8% year-over-year due to ongoing uncertainty from tariffs and global trade [6] - The Trans-Pacific trade lane experienced muted peak season demand compared to the previous year, leading to lower freight rates and volume expectations for Q4 2025 [7][8] - In Alaska, container volume increased by 4.1% year-over-year, supported by economic growth and job creation [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains optimistic about a more stable trading environment starting in Q4 2025 due to a trade and economic deal between the U.S. and China [5][9] - The company is committed to maintaining service reliability and superior customer service, focusing on managing transportation needs amid market volatility [21] - The company plans to continue returning excess capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, with a focus on maintaining a strong balance sheet [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the operating environment remains challenging due to tariffs and global trade uncertainties, but expressed optimism following the recent trade deal [4][5] - The company expects consolidated operating income in Q4 2025 to be approximately 30% lower year-over-year [17] - Management highlighted the importance of adapting to customer needs and maintaining pricing strategies amid fluctuating market conditions [21] Other Important Information - The company has not passed port entry fees on to customers, maintaining a consistent pricing strategy [10] - The company expects to pay approximately $20 million in port entry fees in Q4 2025 and $80 million annually in 2026 and 2027 [9] - The company has repurchased approximately 13.1 million shares since initiating its share repurchase program, representing 30.2% of its stock [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Are current pricing levels sustainable given the pressure on traditional spot rates? - Management indicated that while absolute freight rates may come down, it will be in an orderly manner consistent with seasonal patterns [25][26] Question: What are the factors affecting utilization headwinds in the quarter? - Management attributed lower utilization to a premium pricing strategy and front-loading of inventory rather than broader market supply and demand [28][29] Question: Is there a mechanism for refunding the $6.4 million in port fees? - Management stated that they are awaiting final regulations to determine if refunds or rebates are possible [34] Question: How is the company responding to recent spot market fluctuations? - Management noted that their pricing is disconnected from spot market fluctuations, focusing instead on expedited services for customers with urgent needs [38][39] Question: Are customers diversifying sourcing strategies due to trade discussions? - Management observed a trend of customers adopting a "China plus one" strategy, diversifying sourcing while still recognizing China's importance [46][47] Question: What is the pricing strategy for domestic lanes? - Management confirmed that pricing increases are aligned with underlying cost increases, maintaining a steady pricing environment [49]

Core Viewpoint - The global economy continues to face headwinds, with trade uncertainty and volatility leading to a more cautious economic and business environment [1][2] Trade and Investment - Global goods and services trade has stabilized, with the export-to-GDP ratio projected to be 29% in 2024, matching levels from 2007 [1] - Foreign direct investment flowing to emerging markets and developing economies has dropped to its lowest level since 2005 [1] Regional Trade Dynamics - In many regions, intra-regional trade remains limited, with Africa and South Asia's intra-regional trade accounting for less than 3% of GDP, while the European Union approaches 25% [1] Recommended Actions - Investment in infrastructure, including physical infrastructure as well as health and education, is essential [1] - Support for policy and regulatory reforms is necessary to create a clear and stable business environment [1] - Reducing non-tariff barriers and enhancing regional integration can facilitate faster domestic and regional trade, leading to economic growth and untapped opportunities [1]

Core Insights - The average realized price of crude oil for China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00857.HK) in the first three quarters of 2025 was $65.55 per barrel, a decrease of 14.7% compared to $76.88 per barrel in the same period last year [1] - The average sales price of domestic natural gas was $8.81 per thousand cubic feet, down 1.0% from $8.90 per thousand cubic feet year-on-year [1] - The company reported operating revenue of RMB 2,169.256 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 126.294 billion, a decline of 4.9% from RMB 132.788 billion in the previous year [1] - In Q3 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 42.287 billion, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.7% [1] - The financial condition of the company remains healthy [1] Industry Context - The global economic growth rate has slowed down due to trade uncertainties, while China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year [1] - The international crude oil market is characterized by a generally loose supply and demand, with the average spot price of North Sea Brent crude oil at $70.93 per barrel, down 14.3% from $82.79 per barrel a year ago [1] - The average spot price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was $66.73 per barrel, a decrease of 14.1% from $77.71 per barrel year-on-year [1] - Domestic demand for refined oil has decreased, and the growth rate of domestic natural gas consumption has slowed [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of Canada is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points due to domestic trade uncertainties and slow business investment [1] - Economic analyst Jeremy Kronick highlights that multiple factors contribute to the overall economic weakness, particularly in industries affected by tariffs [1] - The Bank of Canada previously reduced the benchmark interest rate to 2.5% at the end of September, ending a three-month period of rate stability [1] Group 2 - Canada's annual inflation rate rose to 2.4% in September, influenced by rising food prices and a slowdown in the decline of gasoline and travel prices [2] - The Canadian labor market added approximately 60,000 jobs in September, maintaining an unemployment rate of 7.1% [2] - Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO, notes that recent economic data does not fully support calls for a rate cut, as employment figures are not particularly weak and inflation remains slightly above expectations [2] Group 3 - The decision-making process for the Bank of Canada is considered unusually difficult, with further rate cuts becoming more justified if the economy worsens beyond current predictions [3]