新华财经北京12月30日电（王姝睿）由于美国关税降低及全球形势略有改善，瑞士经济前景略有好转。 数据显示，瑞士2025年12月KOF经济领先指标延续了前几个月的上行走势，上升1.7点至103.4，达到自 2024年9月以来的最高水平，并超出市场预期的101.4，显示瑞士经济在2026年初的前景高于平均水平。 另外，食品饮料生产商以及化工和制药行业的子指标表现疲软，使整体乐观前景略显受限。 瑞士政府此前下修2026年经济增长预测，美国高关税成主因。瑞士经济2025年料将增长1.3%，2026年 料将增长0.9%。近期整体贸易不确定性有所缓解，同时，海外扩张性财政政策利好瑞士经济，并有助 于出口，使瑞士经济前景温和向好。分析称，瑞士经济的主要风险在于全球经济的发展。 考虑到经济前景以及持续的低通胀，瑞士央行维持政策利率在0%不变，这是主要央行中最低的利率。 此前的高关税已损害经济增长，而贸易动荡期间避险资金流入推高瑞郎汇率，使进口商品更便宜，进一 步压低了通胀。 （文章来源：新华财经） 积极趋势在生产侧尤为明显，瑞士制造业相关指标组合显示出向好前景。相比之下，私人消费和国外需 求相关的指标组合则仍面临压力。 在生 ...

Mexican financial assets are closing out one of their strongest years in decades, stunning global investors and decisively outperforming Wall Street benchmarks. A synchronized rally in equities and the Mexican peso has erased early fears that renewed U.S. protectionist rhetoric under President Donald Trump would derail Mexico's markets. Instead, 2025 has turned into a historic year for Mexican assets.Mexico's Market Rally Leaves Wall Street In The DustThe iShares Mexico ETF (NYSE:EWW) surged more than 50% y ...

"要让加拿大成为美国第51个州""要给加拿大加关税""要停止与加拿大的贸易谈判"……自今年重返白宫以来，特朗普组建的政府多次挥舞"关税大棒"施压相 关国家与之谈判，而与之相邻的加拿大便成了重点目标。 在特朗普政府的反复威胁下，加拿大也掀起一阵"抵美风波"：多地爆发抗议活动，加拿大商店下架美国酒类……如今，加拿大经济在美关税政策带来的"不 确定性"中颠簸。 加拿大独立企业联合会（CFIB）负责国际贸易与市场竞争的总监米歇尔·奥格尔在接受红星新闻采访时称，对加拿大企业，尤其是中小型企业而言，美国的 关税政策变化就意味着不确定性的增加，而这种不确定性会转化为切实的经济损失。奥格尔说，当下维系北美市场贸易的规则被打乱，贸易紧张局势动摇了 人们的信心，也让不少加企选择将业务重心从美国转移。 ▲特朗普与加拿大总理卡尼（资料图） 近半企业利润下滑 "保生存"成企业重点 在"给加拿大加关税"的问题上，特朗普政府呈现出反反复复的态度。有评价称，加拿大可能最终会与美国达成贸易协议，但没人知道到底是多久，"当我们 满怀希望看着总理（卡尼）和美总统之间的关系向好时，美商务部长卢特尼克就会带来坏消息。"奥格尔认为，美国这种不稳定的关税 ...

美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 12月16日，印度卢比兑美元一度跌至纪录新低，因本地资产遭遇资金持续外流，且与美国的贸易协议迟 迟未能敲定，令市场情绪承压。美元/印度卢比周二一度上涨0.1%，报90.8250，触及纪录新高。 今年迄今，外国投资者已卖出了近180亿美元的印度股票。根据清算所数据，他们还在12月抛售了10亿 美元符合该国指数纳入标准的债券，有望终结连续五个月的买入态势。 ...

印度卢比兑美元一度跌至纪录新低，因本地资产遭遇资金持续外流，且与美国的贸易协议迟迟未能敲 定，令市场情绪承压。美元/印度卢比周二一度上涨0.1%，报90.8250，触及纪录新高。今年迄今，外国 投资者已卖出了近180亿美元的印度股票。根据清算所数据，他们还在12月抛售了10亿美元符合该国指 数纳入标准的债券，有望终结连续五个月的买入态势。 印度卢比兑美元一度跌至纪录新低，因本地资产遭遇资金持续外流，且与美国的贸易协议迟迟未能敲 定，令市场情绪承压。美元/印度卢比周二一度上涨0.1%，报90.8250，触及纪录新高。今年迄今，外国 投资者已卖出了近180亿美元的印度股票。根据清算所数据，他们还在12月抛售了10亿美元符合该国指 数纳入标准的债券，有望终结连续五个月的买入态势。 责任编辑：王永生 责任编辑：王永生 ...

外国资金流出、进口商购买美元令卢比承压。 责任编辑：王许宁 责任编辑：王许宁 由于与美国贸易协议的不确定性持续，印度卢比一度跌逾0.5%，至1美元兑90.4863卢比，触及纪录新 低。 由于与美国贸易协议的不确定性持续，印度卢比一度跌逾0.5%，至1美元兑90.4863卢比，触及纪录新 低。 外国资金流出、进口商购买美元令卢比承压。 ...

年内累计降息125个基点。 12月5日，印度央行——印度储备银行（RBI）宣布降息25个基点。这是该央行时隔6个月后再次降息，也是今年的第4次降息，累计降息125个基点。此外，对于印 度卢比的持续贬值，印度央行正在放缓干预力度。 为何降息？ 根据印度央行发布的声明，由行长桑杰·马霍特拉（Sanjay Malhotra）领导的印度央行货币政策委员会6名成员一致投票决定将回购利率下调25个基点至5.25%。政策 立场维持中性。马霍特拉表示，低通胀和强劲的经济增长意味着印度正处于一个"罕见的黄金时期"，但一些关键经济指标存在疲软。 数据显示，三季度银行经济增长为8.2%超出预期，同时物价涨幅仅有0.25%。马霍特拉表示，尽管总体通胀已显著放缓，但一些关键经济指标存在疲软。他同时警 告说，由于全球贸易的不确定性，经济增长在本财年下半年仍可能放缓。 数据显示，印度10月的工业活动跌至近14个月以来的最低点以及汇丰银行制造业PMI等指标在11月降至近9个月低点，显示经济放缓。此外，对美国出口同样不同乐 观，已连续两个月下滑，其中，10月份同比下跌8.5%。10月份出口总额也同比下跌11.8%。 路透社4日援引三名知情人士 ...

Core Insights - The UNCTAD report predicts a "sluggish" global economic activity in 2024, influenced by trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [1][3] - Global economic growth is expected to slow to 2.6% this year, maintaining this rate until 2026, which is 0.4 percentage points lower than the pre-pandemic average [1][3] Economic Risks - The report highlights risks in the economic and financial markets, particularly due to unpredictable tariff policies under the Trump administration [3] - Developing economies remain vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations and punitive tariffs imposed by the US on their exports [3] Global Economic Disparities - There is a concerning gap among "Global South" economies, which account for over 40% of global GDP, half of foreign direct investment flows, and approximately 45% of goods trade, yet remain marginalized in global equity and bond markets [3] Trade and Financial Interdependence - Approximately 72% of global trade is governed by WTO's most-favored-nation rules, while 90% of international trade relies on a concentrated global financial system [3][4] - The interdependence in the short term helps avoid disruptions and signals policy adjustments, as seen in the market reactions following Trump's tariff announcements [4] Currency Dynamics - The report discusses the imbalance between the rules-based global trade matrix and the centralized global financial system, emphasizing the dominance of the US dollar [5] - Despite a decline in the dollar's share of international reserves, no suitable challenger has emerged to replace it, indicating a trend towards de-dollarization without a viable alternative currency [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold will continue to demonstrate its unique allocation value in the medium to long term, supported by factors such as continuous gold purchases by global central banks, monetary policy shifts, ongoing trade uncertainties, and recurring geopolitical risks. Short - term fluctuations in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations only limit gold's upward movement but do not reverse the bullish trend [3][12] - The Fed's interest - rate cut path may be "stop - and - go" due to inflation stickiness and economic data fluctuations. Policy expectation revisions will be a key factor affecting the volatility rhythm of precious metals [3][12] - Global trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine provide support and increase the volatility of precious metals [3][12] Summary by Related Content Fed Policy and Personnel Changes - In 2026, the Fed's Monetary Policy Committee will undergo a major personnel reshuffle. Fed Chair Powell's term ends on May 15, 2026, and Trump's administration is accelerating the selection of a new chair. Five final candidates have been short - listed, with a possible pre - Christmas 2025 announcement. This may lead to a "dual leadership" situation in the first half of 2026 [6] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic will retire in February 2026. His retirement and the selection of his successor will be an important window to observe the White House's influence on the Fed. The Fed's internal policy differences will become more complex, with the dovish camp strengthening and the hawkish camp remaining a counterbalance [7] - Any news of personnel changes may cause the market to re - evaluate the direction of monetary policy, directly affecting precious - metal prices. Investors should closely monitor these changes to predict the 2026 precious - metal market volatility [8] Gold Market Performance in 2025 Q3 - The global gold market showed strong performance in Q3 2025, with both supply and demand booming. Total demand (including over - the - counter transactions) reached 1,313 tons, a record quarterly high, a 3% year - on - year increase. The demand value soared 44% year - on - year to $146 billion. Supply also increased by 3% to 1,313 tons, with mine production rising seasonally to 977 tons and recycled gold supply remaining at a high of 344 tons [8] - The LBMA gold price hit 13 record highs in Q3, with a quarterly average price of $3,456.54 per ounce, a 40% year - on - year increase [8] Gold Market Demand Structure - Investment demand continued to dominate the market in Q3 2025. Global gold ETF holdings increased by 222 tons, and demand for gold bars and coins exceeded 300 tons for the fourth consecutive quarter, reaching 316 tons. Gold jewelry consumption decreased to 371 tons but the consumption value increased to $4.1 billion due to rising gold prices [9] - Global gold ETFs' significant increase in positions drove up the total holdings, with North American and Asian markets being the main sources of capital inflows. As of November 20, 2025, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares, increased by 19.13% compared to the end of 2024, indicating strong institutional demand for gold [9] Price Trends and Investment Suggestions - The COMEX gold futures contract may form strong support in the range of $3,900 - $4,000 per ounce. If it can effectively break through the $4,200 mark, the next target may be around $4,400 per ounce. The Shanghai gold futures contract may fluctuate in the range of 900 - 950 yuan per gram [4][13] - Silver is more elastic due to the resonance of supply - demand tightness and financial attributes. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position strategy when gold prices pull back, and focus on the Fed's interest - rate decision path, inflation data inflection points, and geopolitical situations [4][13]

Group 1 - The trade volume affected by tariffs among G20 countries has increased approximately fourfold compared to the previous reporting period, marking the largest increase in WTO trade monitoring history [1][4] - During the period from mid-October 2024 to mid-October 2025, 14.3% of imported goods in G20 countries (approximately $2.599 trillion) are impacted by tariffs and other measures, which is more than four times the previous record of $599 billion [4] - The WTO reported that a total of 185 measures are affecting trade valued at approximately $2.9 trillion, compared to $829 billion in the previous G20 report [4] Group 2 - G20 countries have implemented 184 new trade facilitation measures covering about $2.055 trillion in trade, nearly double the previous report's $1.07 trillion [5] - In the services trade sector, G20 countries introduced 52 new measures, with over two-thirds aimed at promoting trade [5] - The WTO noted that despite rising trade barriers, there is a continued dialogue among members rather than retaliatory actions [5] Group 3 - The WTO economists predict a global goods trade growth rate of 2.4% for 2025, but this forecast has been significantly downgraded to 0.5% for 2026 [6] - Oxford Economics reported a slowdown in global trade growth from 4% in 2025 to 1% in 2026, with U.S. tariffs impacting trade performance differently across countries [7] - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies is expected to have a negative impact on investment, with trade policy uncertainty remaining above long-term averages [7][8]