Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential political scenarios in Venezuela as the U.S. seeks to overthrow the Maduro government, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding negotiations with the interim government led by Rodriguez [2][3]. Group 1: Successful Negotiations - The U.S. is expected to first engage in negotiations with the remnants of the Maduro government, with Rodriguez as a key negotiator [3]. - U.S. Secretary of State Rubio acknowledged maintaining contact with Rodriguez, who indicated a willingness to cooperate [3]. - There is speculation that if Maduro is captured, the interim government may agree to a U.S.-led transition, with key figures like Defense Minister Padrino and Interior Minister Cabello also holding significant power [5]. Group 2: Risk of Civil War - If negotiations between the U.S. and the Venezuelan government fail, there is a risk of civil war, as no party may be able to effectively govern the country [7]. - Maduro has maintained control through security forces and the military despite the economic collapse, with a strong support base remaining from the Chavez era [7]. - The presence of criminal organizations linked to drug trafficking within the military could lead to further chaos [7]. Group 3: Opposition Taking Power - There is a possibility of the opposition taking power, but Trump has expressed skepticism about this scenario [8]. - Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has announced a candidate for the presidency and shows readiness to assume power, although her close ties with the U.S. may generate public backlash [8]. - Trump indicated that there has been no contact with Machado and expressed doubts about her ability to lead without domestic support [8].

在当地媒体Metropoles披露这一消息后，巴西货币雷亚尔就开始走弱。随后， 巴西前总统长子、参议员 弗拉维奥·博索纳罗 在X平台上确认 了其父亲的背书，雷亚尔跌势加速。巴西Ibovespa股指收跌4.3%。与此同时，一些作为货币政策预期风向标的利率互换合约收益率狂飙逾 50个基点，反映出投资者大举撤销此前"博索纳罗会支持圣保罗州长 塔尔西济奥·德·弗雷塔斯 参选"的押注。 【导读】巴西的黑天鹅事件 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家周末好，简单关注一则巴西发生的黑天鹅事件，直接股汇双杀。 巴西股市周五大跌，股市创下自2021年以来最糟糕的一天，货币也重挫约 2.5%。原因是巴西前总统博索纳罗公开支持自己的一个儿子， 作为右翼阵营在明年10月总统选举中的候选人。 此前，受新兴市场整体上涨行情以及市场对弗雷塔斯可能参选的期待支撑，巴西资产今年表现不错。尽管左翼 现任总统卢拉 预计将竞选第 四个任期，而且在早期民调中领先，但交易员越来越认为，如果 弗雷塔斯 出马，将是右翼阵营击败现任总统的最佳机会。 有分析师表示："市场之前预期 弗雷塔斯 会成为博索纳罗钦点的候选人，而市场的技术面仓位在一定程度上也反映了这种乐观情绪。 ...

Group 1 - Brazilian President Lula stated that he will run for election in 2026 if his health condition is good [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming South Korean presidential election on June 3, 2025, is a significant political event following the impeachment of former President Yoon Suk-yeol, with major implications for the country's political landscape and governance [1][3]. Group 1: Election Context - The election was originally scheduled for 2027 but was moved up due to the constitutional requirement to hold a new election within 60 days of a president's impeachment [1]. - A total of 14,295 polling stations will be set up for approximately 44.39 million eligible voters, with voting hours from 6 AM to 8 PM local time [3]. Group 2: Candidates and Polling - Five candidates are competing, with Lee Jae-myung from the Democratic Party leading in polls at 49.2%, followed by Kim Moon-soo from the ruling People Power Party at 36.8%, and Lee Jun-sik from the Reform New Party at 10.3% [1][3]. - The election is seen as a referendum on the Yoon administration, with many voters eager to address the political turmoil caused by the previous government's actions [3]. Group 3: Voter Engagement - The early voting period saw a participation rate of 34.74%, the second highest in history, indicating strong voter interest driven by recent political events [7]. - A high turnout is anticipated for the final voting day, with 86.8% of voters expressing intent to participate, reflecting a desire for change in governance [8]. Group 4: Candidate Strategies - Candidates are intensifying their campaigning efforts in the final days, with Lee Jae-myung focusing on his political stronghold in Seongnam and Kim Moon-soo rallying support in key cities [4][5]. - Former presidents are actively supporting their preferred candidates, with Yoon Suk-yeol endorsing Kim Moon-soo, while former President Moon Jae-in emphasizes the importance of accountability in this election [5][6]. Group 5: Political Dynamics - Analysts suggest that the current political climate favors Lee Jae-myung due to a strong public sentiment for accountability following the impeachment of Yoon Suk-yeol [10]. - The rise in support for Kim Moon-soo in the final polling days reflects a consolidation of conservative voters, although the overall trend still indicates a preference for change among the electorate [11][12].

Group 1 - The upcoming South Korean presidential election is crucial for the country's future policies, especially in balancing relations between China and the United States [1] - The election, originally scheduled for 2027, has been moved up to June 3 due to the impeachment of former President Yoon Suk-yeol [1][3] - Five candidates are competing, with Lee Jae-myung from the Democratic Party leading in polls with 49.2% support, followed by Kim Moon-soo from the ruling People Power Party at 36.8% and Lee Jun-suk at 10.3% [1] Group 2 - A total of 14,295 polling stations will be set up for approximately 44.39 million voters, with polling hours from 6 AM to 8 PM [3] - The early voting period saw a participation of 15.42 million voters, resulting in a turnout rate of 34.74%, the second highest in history [6][8] - The high early voting turnout is attributed to public sentiment against the previous administration's actions, indicating a strong desire for change [8][12] Group 3 - Former presidents are actively campaigning for their preferred candidates, with Yoon Suk-yeol endorsing Kim Moon-soo and former President Moon Jae-in emphasizing the need for accountability in the election [5][11] - The election is seen as a referendum on the previous administration, with significant public interest in the outcome [3][11] - The candidates have engaged in televised debates, but the discussions have been criticized for lacking depth and devolving into personal attacks [12]

Group 1 - The upcoming presidential election in South Korea has narrowed down to five candidates after two withdrawals, with Lee Jae-myung, Kim Moon-soo, and Lee Jun-sik emerging as the main contenders [1] - Former President Yoon Suk-yeol has publicly endorsed Kim Moon-soo, despite having previously announced his withdrawal from the ruling People Power Party, indicating potential internal party tensions [3] - Lee Jae-myung, the candidate from the Democratic Party, is leading in polls, with a support rate around 50%, while Kim Moon-soo follows with nearly 40% [10] Group 2 - Former President Moon Jae-in emphasized the importance of the election as a judgment on Yoon Suk-yeol's government failures, suggesting a strong public sentiment against the current administration [4] - Former President Park Geun-hye has shown support for Kim Moon-soo, indicating a desire to restore her reputation and unify support for the election [5] - Former President Lee Myung-bak advised Kim Moon-soo to prioritize U.S.-South Korea relations and meet with President Trump if elected, highlighting concerns over international relations [8]

Group 1 - The early voting for the 21st presidential election in South Korea began on the morning of the 29th and will end on the 30th, with a record first-day turnout of 19.58% [1][3] - Approximately 8.69 million voters participated in the first day of early voting, marking the highest turnout since the introduction of the early voting system in 2014 [3] - The early voting system aims to increase voter participation by allowing those who may be absent on the official voting day to cast their votes in advance [1][3] Group 2 - Major candidates, including Lee Jae-myung from the Democratic Party, Kim Moon-soo from the People Power Party, and Lee Jun-sik from the Reform New Party, participated in early voting [2] - Lee Jae-myung emphasized the importance of youth involvement in politics and called for voter participation, stating that "the ballot is more powerful than a bullet" [2] - Kim Moon-soo highlighted his rising support and the need for his leadership to overcome economic challenges, while Lee Jun-sik called for political and generational change [2] Group 3 - A recent poll indicated that 86.8% of voters are certain to participate in the June 3 presidential election, consistent with previous elections [3] - The overseas voting rate reached 79.5%, contributing to a growing domestic voting atmosphere [3] - The final support rate poll showed Lee Jae-myung leading with 49.2%, followed by Kim Moon-soo at 36.8% and Lee Jun-sik at 10.3% [4] Group 4 - Security concerns have increased as police reported 12 cases related to threats against presidential candidates, with 6 arrests made [4] - A gun ban has been implemented from 21:00 on the 28th until 17:00 on June 4th to ensure election safety [4] - On the election day, approximately 168,000 police officers will be deployed nationwide to maintain order and prevent incidents [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. federal court has blocked President Trump's tariff policy announced on April 2, ruling that he overstepped his authority by imposing comprehensive tariffs on countries that export more to the U.S. than they import [1][3] - The International Trade Court in Manhattan stated that the U.S. Constitution grants Congress exclusive power to regulate trade with other nations, and the emergency powers claimed by the President do not supersede this authority [3] Group 2 - The U.S. government has announced the cancellation of student and exchange scholar program qualifications for Harvard University, prohibiting the school from enrolling international students [8][24] - President Trump has called for Harvard to disclose its foreign student list, suggesting a cap of 15% on international students, as the current ratio is approximately 31% [6][24] Group 3 - France's tourism sector is reportedly benefiting from tourists, particularly from Japan and Canada, who are avoiding the U.S. due to Trump's policies [22][24] - The French tourism minister noted a 30% increase in visitors from Canada and Japan, as they reconsider travel to the U.S. under Trump's administration [24]

Group 1: Southeast Asia Visit by French President Macron - French President Macron has commenced a six-day visit to Southeast Asia, covering Vietnam, Indonesia, and Singapore, and will attend the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore [3][4] - The Shangri-La Dialogue will take place from May 30 to June 1, 2025, where Macron will deliver a keynote speech at the opening dinner [5][6] - Macron's visit aims to position France as a reliable partner for ASEAN countries, offering an alternative to US and Chinese influence [3][4] Group 2: Shangri-La Dialogue Agenda - The Shangri-La Dialogue will gather defense ministers, military leaders, and security experts from over 40 countries to discuss key security challenges [6][7] - Key topics include "The New Strategic Vision of the US for Indo-Pacific Security," "Maintaining Stability in a Competitive World," and "Managing Proliferation Risks in the Asia-Pacific" [6][7] - A report titled "Asia-Pacific Security Assessment 2025" will be released during the dialogue, analyzing major security policies and trends in the region [7] Group 3: Japan-US Trade Negotiations - Japan and the US are set to hold the fourth round of tariff negotiations around May 30, with a meeting between Japanese Prime Minister and US President planned for mid-June [8][9] - Japan's Chief Trade Negotiator, Akira Amari, is returning from the third round of talks in Washington and will meet with US Treasury Secretary [8][9] - The discussions focus on adjusting various tariff measures, with Japan emphasizing the need to protect its national interests [8][9] Group 4: Polish Presidential Election - The first round of the Polish presidential election concluded with Civic Coalition candidate Rafal Trzaskowski receiving 31.52% of the votes, followed by independent candidate Krzysztof Bosak with 29.53% [10][11] - A voter turnout of 67.31% was recorded for the first round [11] - The top two candidates will compete in a second round scheduled for June 1 [10][12]

Group 1: South Korea Political Landscape - Former President Yoon Suk-yeol announced his resignation from the People Power Party to support the party's electoral success and uphold liberal democracy [1] - The 21st presidential election in South Korea is scheduled for June 3, with early voting from May 29 to 30, and campaign activities began on May 12 [1] - Lee Jae-myung from the Democratic Party is currently leading in polls with a 51% support rate, while the People Power Party's candidate Kim Moon-soo has 31% [1] Group 2: U.S.-Russia Relations - Tensions between the U.S. and Russia are evident, with U.S. President Trump expressing dissatisfaction with Ukrainian President Zelensky's cooperation during their talks [3] - The ongoing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are strained, with Russia demanding Ukraine withdraw from four eastern regions and relinquish claims to Crimea [5] - Despite the tensions, a significant agreement was reached for a large-scale prisoner exchange, marking the largest since the conflict began [5] Group 3: Federal Reserve Workforce Reduction - The Federal Reserve plans to reduce its workforce by approximately 10% over the next few years as part of responsible resource management [6] - Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the need for the Fed to ensure its budget is mission-oriented and to regularly reassess staffing and resource usage [6] - This decision follows a historical precedent from 1997 when the Fed also reduced its staff, aiming to modernize operations while maintaining focus on its public mission [6]