What caught my eye today, as the world is focused on NVIDIA and whether or not we’re at a real inflection point for AI spending, was something completely different: A teaser pitch about gold and Tether from Marin Katusa. His tease was fairly light on the “promotion,” this wasn’t a big splashy presentation — but in his free letter late last week he talked up the inevitability of gold’s rise as the central banks keep buying to diversify away from the U.S. dollar, and as the cryptocurrency companies find ways ...

The holiday season not only presents an opportunity to spend time with loved ones, it also allows investors to tilt their portfolios towards assets that can capture short-term upside. One of those is gold. Quantitative analysis website Quantpedia noted the seasonality of gold exposure this time of year. Because gold is an asset uncorrelated with the broader market, it can exhibit patterns that don't generally coincide with the overall stock market. Furthermore, the precious metal can be subject to its own i ...

Core Viewpoint - The "debasement trade" has emerged as a significant investment theme this year, driven by various factors including trade disputes, fiscal deficits, rate policy, and geopolitical tensions, leading to a negative market outlook for certain assets [1] Group 1 - The market's perception of trade disputes has contributed to a negative sentiment, impacting investment strategies [1] - Fiscal deficits are influencing investor confidence, further exacerbating the negative outlook [1] - Rate policy adjustments are being closely monitored as they play a crucial role in shaping market expectations [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions are adding to the complexity of the investment landscape, prompting a reevaluation of risk [1] - The combination of these factors has solidified the "debasement trade" as a focal point for investors seeking to navigate current market conditions [1]

The debasement trade refers to an investment strategy where capital flows into assets perceived as hedges against currency devaluation. Typically driven by factors like excessive government borrowing, fiscal deficits, money printing, and persistent inflation. Common assets include gold, Bitcoin, other cryptocurrencies, commodities like silver and platinum, and even stocks as investors seek scarcity or non-fiat alternatives to preserve value when faith in central banks or fiat currencies erode.The concept ha ...

How Are We Feeling About That Debasement Trade? https://t.co/x32w6duZ4g ...

Core Insights - The "debasement trade" narrative in cryptocurrency is gaining popularity, with a focus on moving from government-backed assets to "hard" assets like Bitcoin and gold [1][2] - Bitcoin is viewed as a hedge against the declining value of fiat currencies due to its fixed supply of 21 million coins and independence from central banks [2][3] - The increasing global debt and persistent inflation concerns are driving momentum for the debasement trade, positioning Bitcoin as a strategy to safeguard wealth [3] Industry Context - Bitcoin was created in response to the 2008 financial crisis, with its genesis block referencing bank bailouts, highlighting its role as a solution to traditional financial instability [4][5] - The cryptocurrency's fundamental thesis has always aligned with the debasement trade concept, emphasizing its purpose as a safeguard against monetary dilution [5] - Financial markets are reacting to US policy changes, which can lead to abrupt market shifts, as seen in the recent market crash related to tariff fears [6]

Debasement Trade Overview - The debasement trade involves rotating out of fiat currencies into assets like stocks, gold, Bitcoin, and real estate due to concerns about the declining purchasing power of cash and government bonds [4] - The core idea is that investors prefer owning productive or scarce assets over holding fiat currencies that are perceived to be losing value [4] - Debasement doesn't necessarily mean hyperinflation or currency collapse, but rather persistent deficits and a policy bias towards managing debt [12] Asset Class Implications - US stocks benefit as owning businesses becomes more attractive when cash is perceived to be melting, particularly those driving economic growth [5] - Gold serves as a traditional hedge against money printing and a safe haven amid geopolitical uncertainty, recently reaching all-time highs [7][8] - Bitcoin is viewed as digital gold with a limited supply of 21 million, gaining mainstream acceptance through ETFs [9][10] - Real estate is considered a physical, scarce asset that provides essential shelter, maintaining high prices despite fluctuating mortgage rates [11] Drivers of the Debasement Trade - Fiscal dominance, where large government deficits and rising debt servicing costs constrain central bank monetary policy, is a key factor [14] - US net interest costs on debt are projected to exceed defense costs in 2025, signaling a significant burden [16] - Global debt stands at over 235% of GDP, driven by public borrowing, making the debasement trade feel rational [18] Bull Case for Continuation - History suggests governments tend to rely on policies that lower real rates to manage heavy debt, a concept known as financial repression [22] - Structural flows, such as US ETF flows projected at $14 trillion in 2025 and automatic enrollment in 401(k) plans, support equity markets [23][24] - Central banks' consistent gold purchases, exceeding 1,000 tons for three consecutive years, indicate a long-term reweighting [27] Counterarguments and Nuances - Market moves may be driven by market cycle exuberance and sentiment rather than solely by debasement concerns [35][37] - Concentration in a few mega-cap stocks can explain market highs without relying on a macro thesis [38] - Liquidity conditions, such as the Fed's pivot on rate hikes and potential end to quantitative tightening, may be a more significant factor [40]

Just as sceptics began to claim that gold’s 60% surge this year signals a late-stage rally that has no place for Bitcoin, Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s chief investment officer, has come out batting for the debasement trade. Hougan’s core argument: structural trades don’t end in months, they play out over years. His evidence? The artificial intelligence trade. “ChatGPT came out in 2022 and people started buying up Nvidia and AI, and then just a short while later people were saying it was too hyped and it wasn’ ...

Market Trends & Investment Opportunities - The debasement trade, where scarce assets like Bitcoin and gold appreciate against depreciating fiat currencies, is becoming mainstream as institutions recognize it [1][3] - Investors should own assets that will appreciate in value as the prices of goods are inflating [8] - Gold has seen a spike due to central bank buying as they seek assets that cannot be debased [14] - Bitcoin benefits from liquidity as cheaper dollars require more of them to buy Bitcoin [18] - Bitcoin is entering a tremendous institutional adoption phase and is viewed as digital gold [21] Macroeconomic Factors & Risks - The US is running over $2 trillion deficits annually, with debt exploding to over $38 trillion this year [4] - The US faces a debt spiral with three choices: cutting spending, raising taxes, or defaulting (hard or soft) [6][7][8] - The Fed is lowering rates into a period of structural inflation, fearing a recession and potential explosion of deficits to $3-4 trillion [8] - Credit agencies have downgraded US debt, indicating structural problems [8] - The market is concerned that the Fed will have to stop QT (Quantitative Tightening) and eventually start QE (Quantitative Easing) due to decreasing bank reserves [8][9] Bitcoin Outlook - Bitcoin is expected to outperform gold in the future and take market share away from it [22] - Bitcoin could fall with a market drawdown, as it is still treated as a risk asset [27] - Bitcoin is expected to snap back strongly after a market drawdown, especially with an injection of liquidity [29] - In the next 5-7 years, Bitcoin could reach $1 million, with higher prices depending on the rate of currency debasement and institutional adoption [39]

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has declared that investors are rushing into crypto and precious metals such as gold as "assets of fear," driven by mounting concerns over spiraling government debt worldwide. "Owning crypto assets or gold are assets of fear," Fink said during his appearance at the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh, according to a Bloomberg report. "You own these assets because you're frightened of the debasement of your assets. You're worried about your financial security. You're ...