Core Viewpoint - The dollar is experiencing weakness due to concerns over foreign selling of U.S. assets, particularly following reports of Chinese regulators advising financial institutions to reduce their exposure to U.S. Treasury holdings [1] Group 1: Dollar Performance - The dollar reached a one-and-a-half-week low, indicating a significant decline in its value [1] - There is only a marginal recovery in the dollar's value after this low point [1] Group 2: Foreign Selling Concerns - Concerns about foreign selling of U.S. assets have been heightened by a Bloomberg report regarding Chinese regulatory advice [1] - The advice from Chinese regulators specifically targets reducing exposure to U.S. Treasury holdings [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Commentary - Federal Reserve governor Stephen Miran has downplayed the recent weakness of the dollar [1] - Miran stated that a more significant decline in the dollar's value would be necessary to impact inflation [1]

Group 1 - The US market capitalization as a percentage of total global market cap reached its highest levels since World War II, indicating extreme US dominance in the market [1][2] - The dollar's weakness in the first half of the previous year was a significant catalyst for investors to explore opportunities outside the US, leading to earnings growth in various global markets [3][8] - A notable portion of returns in dollar terms for international investments was attributed to the weaker dollar, with estimates suggesting that nearly one-third of returns were influenced by this factor [9][10] Group 2 - There is a growing trend of deregulation and trade agreements among countries outside the US, as nations seek to establish their own economic relationships and reduce reliance on the US [6][7] - Valuation is becoming increasingly important for investors, as evidenced by the significant market performance in regions like Germany and Hong Kong, where low valuations attracted investment despite previous negative sentiment [12][15] - The MAG7 stocks, while initially seen as a global reserve asset, are experiencing a shift as investors begin to diversify into international and emerging markets, recognizing the potential for value outside the US [15][16]

So let's talk about this and more with our friend BFG Wealth Partners chief investment officer Peter Bookbar. Also a CNBC contributor. Peter again US markets have done great but to what do you attribute this.I mean Korea doubling in a year. >> Memory chips. >> As we entered 2025 the US market cap as a as a percent of total market cap got to the highest levels since World War II.north is 60%. With a >> of the global market >> of the global market cap with context that the US economy is about 25% of global GD ...

The dollar index (DXY00) fell to a 1-week low today and is down by -0.75%.  The dollar is under pressure today after a Bloomberg report said that Chinese regulators have advised financial institutions to rein in their holdings of US Treasuries, fueling concerns that foreigners will reduce their demand for US dollar assets.  Strength in the Chinese yuan also undercut the dollar after the yuan rose to a 2.5-year high against the dollar today.  Losses in the dollar accelerated today after National Economic Co ...

March WTI crude oil (CLH26) on Friday closed up +0.26 (+0.41%), and March RBOB gasoline (RBH26) closed up +0.0266 (+1.38%). Crude oil and gasoline prices recovered from early losses on Friday and moved higher after the dollar (DXY00) weakened.   Also, doubts that the US-Iranian talks in Oman will lead to a breakthrough in a nuclear deal are underpinning oil prices after the Wall Street Journal reported that Iran stands by its refusal to end uranium enrichment, a major sticking point for the US.  Crude pri ...

March WTI crude oil (CLH26) today is up +0.79 (+1.25%), and March RBOB gasoline (RBH26) is up +0.0291 (+1.51%). Crude oil and gasoline prices recovered from early losses today and moved higher after the dollar weakened.   Also, concerns that the US-Iranian talks in Oman will not lead to a breakthrough in a nuclear deal are underpinning oil prices, after the Wall Street Journal reported that Iran stands by its refusal to end uranium enrichment, a major sticking point for the US.  Crude prices added to thei ...

Economic Outlook - The US economic outlook is improving as uncertainty fades, but risks remain, particularly with hiring concentrated in a few sectors and inflation above the Fed's goal [2] - Markets are discounting a 9% chance for a -25 basis point rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18 [1] Dollar Performance - The dollar fell to a 4-year low following President Trump's comments on its weakness, compounded by foreign capital outflows due to a growing budget deficit and political polarization [1] - The dollar index (DXY) decreased by -0.21%, influenced by a stronger Chinese yuan and higher T-note yields that weakened the dollar's interest rate differentials [6] - The dollar's losses were somewhat contained due to increased liquidity demand from a stock sell-off and supportive comments from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin regarding the economic outlook [5] Government Shutdown Impact - The partial US government shutdown, now in its fourth day, negatively impacts the dollar, although it is expected to be brief as a spending bill vote is anticipated [3][13] - President Trump announced a tentative deal with Senate Democrats to fund the Homeland Security Department for two weeks, allowing more time for immigration talks [3] Precious Metals Market - Precious metals are experiencing increased demand as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical risks and US political uncertainty, with a notable rise in gold and silver prices [10][11] - Central bank demand for gold remains strong, with China's PBOC increasing its reserves by +30,000 ounces to 74.15 million troy ounces in December, marking the fourteenth consecutive month of increases [16] - Fund demand for precious metals is robust, with gold ETF holdings reaching a 3.5-year high, although silver ETF holdings have seen some liquidation recently [17]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have recently increased due to a weaker dollar, leading to short covering in sugar futures [1] - Despite the recent price increase, the overall outlook for sugar remains bearish due to anticipated global surpluses [2][6] Global Sugar Production and Surplus - Global sugar production is expected to exceed demand, with estimates of a 2.74 million metric ton (MMT) surplus for 2025/26 and a 156,000 metric ton surplus for 2026/27 [2] - Covrig Analytics has revised its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 4.7 MMT, up from 4.1 MMT previously [6] Regional Production Updates - Brazil's sugar output for the 2025-26 season has increased by 0.9% year-on-year to 40.222 MMT, with a higher ratio of cane crushed for sugar [3] - India's sugar production for the 2025-26 season is projected to rise by 22% year-on-year to 15.9 MMT, with an overall production estimate increased to 31 MMT [4] Export Dynamics - India is expected to boost sugar exports, with the government potentially allowing additional exports to alleviate domestic supply issues [5] - The Indian government has set a quota for sugar exports, allowing mills to export 1.5 MMT in the 2025/26 season [5]

Summary of Global Hotels & Leisure Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of current dollar weakness on the Global Hotels & Leisure industry, particularly focusing on companies with significant international revenue exposure and those with costs denominated in different currencies. Key Points Winners from Dollar Weakness 1. **Booking Holdings (BKNG)**: - Beneficiary of dollar weakness with nearly 80% of room nights outside the US, particularly benefiting from strong Euro against the USD [2][12] - Earnings estimates increased by 2-3% due to favorable FX impact [1] 2. **Airbnb (ABNB)**: - 55% of revenues earned outside the US, with 33% exposure to Europe and 11% each to APAC and LATAM, leading to a positive earnings tailwind from USD weakness [3][12] - Earnings estimates raised by 2-3% [1] 3. **Carnival Corporation (CCL)**: - 45% of revenues generated outside the US, primarily in Europe, benefiting from favorable currency translation [3][12] - Earnings estimates increased by 2-3% [1] 4. **Other Beneficiaries**: - Hilton, Marriott, IHG, and Royal Caribbean (RCL) will also see benefits, but to a lesser extent due to limited non-USD exposure [3] Losers from Dollar Weakness 1. **Accor**: - Despite only 3% of room exposure in the US, approximately 35% of EBITDA is generated in USD while reporting in EUR, leading to a negative impact from dollar weakness [4][14] - Earnings estimates trimmed by ~3% [1] 2. **Hyatt**: - Managed resorts in the Mexican Caribbean earn revenues in USD but have costs in Mexican Pesos, leading to margin compression due to dollar weakness [5][14] - Incentive management fees are sensitive to USD/MXN exchange rates, resulting in a 3-4% headwind to earnings for 2026-2027 [5][15] Financial Implications - The overall impact of dollar weakness is expected to create a material earnings tailwind for US-denominated stocks with high non-US revenue exposure, while negatively affecting those with significant USD costs and EUR-denominated earnings [1][11] - The dollar is down MSD-high teens year-over-year against major currencies, which will have a significant impact on the earnings of companies in the travel sector [9] Investment Ratings - Despite the FX impacts, the investment ratings remain unchanged with Outperform ratings for Marriott, Hyatt, Accor, Melia, Royal Caribbean, and Airbnb [8] Additional Insights - The analysis highlights the importance of currency exposure in the hospitality sector, emphasizing that companies with significant international operations are better positioned to benefit from a weaker dollar [11][20] - The sensitivity of earnings to currency fluctuations is a critical factor for investors to consider when evaluating these companies [14][15] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the impact of dollar weakness on the Global Hotels & Leisure industry, identifying both winners and losers, and providing a financial outlook for the affected companies.

Currency Market Dynamics - The weaker dollar and bearish dollar trade are expected to persist due to pro-cyclical growth trends globally and a Federal Reserve that is likely to maintain its current stance [2] - There is significant optimism regarding the US economy, with expectations of increased demand for credit driven by economic strength, leading to a lessened concern about the dollar's value [5][6] Precious Metals and Investment Trends - Gold and silver have seen substantial price movements, with gold prices potentially reaching $6,000 or even $8,000 if private investors increase their allocations to gold [13] - The demand for precious metals is influenced by various factors, including currency debasement, investor demand, and industrial needs, particularly in data centers [14][15] Emerging Markets Outlook - The weakness of the dollar has been beneficial for emerging markets, particularly in Latin America, with expectations of continued positive trends through 2026 [7] - The sentiment outside major financial hubs indicates a belief that the dollar was previously overvalued, contributing to a more optimistic outlook on the economy [6]