The arrest of Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor has made for a potentially embarrassing week for the UK. But economic indicators might point otherwise. Get The Readout with @RuthsDavid https://t.co/2NmeHt2kOe ...

The U.S. reported that core PCE rose 3.0% year over year and 0.4% month over month in December 2025, while headline PCE increased 2.9% year over year. Personal income and consumer spending grew 0.3% and 0.4% month over month, respectively. ...

Hungary’s headline inflation rate plunged to the lowest level in almost eight years in January https://t.co/aJYiAk9i7K ...

Core Insights - The dollar index has decreased to a one-week low, down by 0.05%, primarily due to falling T-note yields following weaker-than-expected US economic reports, which has raised expectations for a potential easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [1][3] - The US Q4 employment cost index increased by 0.7% quarter-over-quarter, which is below the expected 0.8% and marks the smallest rise in 4.5 years [2] - US December retail sales remained unchanged month-over-month, falling short of the anticipated 0.4% increase, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [3] Economic Indicators - The swaps market is pricing in a 22% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting on March 17-18, with expectations of a total interest rate cut of about 50 basis points by 2026 [4] - The euro has slightly decreased by 0.09% following a dovish statement from the European Central Bank, which suggested that lower interest rates could alleviate inflation and growth pressures caused by higher US tariffs [5] - The yen has appreciated by 0.97% against the dollar, reaching a one-week high, driven by positive signals from the Japanese economy, particularly a significant rise in machine tool orders [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the economic indicators and forecasts related to the global economy, with a focus on the United States and other major regions. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **US Economic Data Surprises**: Recent US economic data has shown positive surprises, contributing to an increase in the Goldman Sachs MAP Index, which reflects stronger ISM services, a smaller trade deficit, and a lower unemployment rate [2][4][10]. 2. **Financial Conditions Index (FCI)**: The Global ex Russia FCI has decreased by -0.4 basis points, indicating tighter financial conditions [7][30]. The FCI is crucial for understanding the overall financial environment and its impact on GDP growth [111]. 3. **Current Activity Indicator (CAI)**: The December CAI for the US is reported at +1.7%, with a slight increase from the previous month, indicating a stable growth signal [12][52]. The global CAI stands at +2.6%, reflecting positive trends across developed and emerging markets [12][52]. 4. **GDP Forecast Changes**: Goldman Sachs has adjusted its GDP forecasts for 2026, indicating higher growth expectations for the US and other regions, with specific percentage changes noted for various countries [10][100][102]. 5. **Wage and Price Inflation**: Wage trackers indicate a steady increase in wage growth across major economies, which may influence inflation trends moving forward [21][73]. The trimmed core inflation measure is also being monitored closely for its implications on monetary policy [66][111]. 6. **Jobs-Workers Gap**: The analysis of the jobs-workers gap shows significant changes since December 2019, with implications for labor market dynamics in the US and other countries [24][78]. Additional Important Content 1. **Fiscal Impulses**: The report discusses the expected fiscal impulses over the next four quarters, particularly in the US, Euro Area, and UK, highlighting the potential impact of fiscal policy on GDP growth [86][87]. 2. **Output Gaps**: The short-run utilization scores for various countries indicate how much of their potential output is being utilized, with the US showing a score of -2.4% in December [88][90]. 3. **Methodology Notes**: The report includes detailed methodology notes on how various economic indicators are calculated, including the FCI, CAI, and MAP Surprise Index, which are essential for understanding the underlying data [110][111]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current economic landscape and forecasts for various regions.

Market Overview - Trading may be subdued on the first trading day of 2026, with early signs from U.S. Futures Index suggesting a positive opening for Wall Street [1] - Asian shares finished lower, while European shares are mostly trading up [1] - The dollar had a weak start to 2026, oil prices increased, and gold jumped nearly 1.5 percent [1] U.S. Futures and Major Averages - As of 7.30 am ET, Dow futures were up by 196.00 points, S&P 500 futures increased by 40.00 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 245.75 points [2] - On the previous trading day, major U.S. averages ended lower: Dow fell by 303.77 points (0.6 percent), Nasdaq decreased by 177.09 points (0.8 percent), and S&P 500 declined by 50.74 points (0.7 percent) [2] Economic Indicators - The PMI Manufacturing Final for December is expected to be released at 9.45 am ET, with a consensus of 51.8 [3] - Construction Spending for November is anticipated at 10.00 am ET, with a consensus of 0.0 percent, compared to an increase of 0.2 percent in October [3] - The Fed Balance Sheet for the week will be published at 4.30 pm ET, with the previous level at $6.581 trillion [3] Asian Market Performance - Asian stocks surged, although trading volumes were thin due to holidays in Japan, China, and New Zealand [4] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng index increased by 2.76 percent to 26,338.47, while the Kospi average climbed by 2.27 percent to 4,309.63 [4] - The Australian benchmark S&P/ASX 200 rose by 0.15 percent to 8,727.80, and the broader All Ordinaries index settled 0.20 percent higher at 9,036.60 [4] European Market Performance - European shares are trading mostly higher, with the CAC 40 Index of France up by 26.44 points (0.32 percent) [5] - The German DAX increased by 53.45 points (0.22 percent), and the U.K. FTSE 100 Index gained 42.62 points (0.43 percent) [5] - The Swiss Market Index added 26.89 points (0.20 percent), while the Euro Stoxx 50 Index rose by 34.15 points (0.59 percent) [5]

Market Performance - U.S. stocks experienced a positive trading session, with the Dow Jones index increasing by approximately 400 points, up 0.84% to 48,289.58, while the NASDAQ rose 1.53% to 23,040.25, and the S&P 500 gained 1.09% to 6,794.36 [1] - Consumer discretionary shares increased by 1.6%, while energy stocks fell by 0.8% [1] Company Earnings - Accenture reported first-quarter 2026 earnings of $3.94 per share, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of $3.75, and sales of $18.700 billion, slightly above the consensus estimate of $18.523 billion [2] Commodity Prices - Oil prices rose by 1% to $56.48, while gold prices decreased by 0.2% to $4,364.50. Silver fell by 1.1% to $66.160, and copper increased by 0.1% to $5.4370 [5] European Market Performance - European shares showed gains, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 up 0.5%, Spain's IBEX 35 Index rising 0.7%, London's FTSE 100 gaining 0.1%, Germany's DAX 40 increasing by 0.5%, and France's CAC 40 up 0.4% [6] Asian Market Performance - Asian markets closed mixed, with Japan's Nikkei down 1.03%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng up 0.12%, China's Shanghai Composite rising 0.16%, and India's BSE Sensex falling 0.09% [7] Stock Movements - Athira Pharma Inc shares surged 88% to $7.76 following an agreement to acquire rights for lasofoxifene development. Sable Offshore Corp shares increased by 58% to $8.36, and FuelCell Energy Inc shares rose by 32% to $10.39 after reporting better-than-expected fourth-quarter results [9] - Conversely, Mega Fortune Co Ltd shares dropped 59% to $5.34, and Pyxis Oncology Inc shares fell 54% to $1.56 after announcing preliminary data from clinical studies. Actelis Networks Inc shares decreased by 45% to $0.60 following a public offering announcement [9]

🇺🇸 JUST IN: US inflation cooled to 2.7%, below market expectations. ...

Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November is expected to increase by 0.3 percent, with the release scheduled for 8:30 am ET [3] - Jobless Claims for the week are anticipated to be 225K, down from 236K in the prior week [3] - The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for December is forecasted to rise by 2.2, following a decrease of 1.7 in November [3] - The third quarter Current Account deficit was $251.3 billion in the prior quarter [4] - E-Commerce Retail Sales for the third quarter showed a 1.4 percent increase in the previous quarter [4] - Leading Indicators for November are expected to be down 0.3 percent from the prior month [5] - The EIA's Natural Gas Report indicated a decrease of 177 bcf in gas stock in the prior week [5] Market Performance - Asian shares mostly finished lower, with the Shanghai Composite index up by 0.16 percent to 3,876.37 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index slightly higher at 25,498.13 [5] - Japanese markets hit three-week lows, with the Nikkei average falling 1.03 percent to 49,001.50 and the broader Topix index down 0.37 percent to 3,356.89 [6] - European shares are trading mostly higher, with the CAC 40 Index up 17.23 points or 0.21 percent, the DAX gaining 62.05 points or 0.26 percent, and the FTSE 100 Index progressing 1.52 points or 0.02 percent [6][7] - The Swiss Market Index added 19.19 points or 0.15 percent, while the Euro Stoxx 50 Index increased by 22.41 points or 0.39 percent [7] Futures Market - As of 7:30 am ET, Dow futures were up 85.00 points, S&P 500 futures added 26.75 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures progressed 196.25 points [2]

U.S. retail sales decelerated this fall, the Census Bureau said Tuesday https://t.co/C1pqcvBoF6 ...