our next guest planning to discuss his letter to shareholders, the people of the state of Pennsylvania. Want to bring in Senator Dave McCormack of Pennsylvania. Good morning to you. Um it's nice to see you.You've uh you've written this letter. Have your predecessors ever done something like this. Where where did the idea come from.>> You know, I don't I don't think anybody's done it before. Not that I'm aware of, but it just came from, you know, being in business for 25 years and being the CEO of a public c ...

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 73.4% chance of no rate change and a 26.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s January meeting.Fed Governor Stephen Miran said on Monday that the central bank’s policy stance remains overly restrictive for the economy, citing his benign inflation outlook and warning signs in the job market. Also, New York Fed President John Williams said monetary policy is well-positioned for next year following last week’s rate cut. “The FOMC has ...

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Core Points - The Federal Reserve has cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point for the third time since September, bringing it to approximately 3.6%, the lowest in nearly three years [1] - The Fed's dual goals in setting the benchmark rate are to manage prices and encourage full employment, which also influences consumer borrowing rates [2] - Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target while the job market has cooled, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [3] Impact on Savings and Loans - Falling interest rates will continue to reduce yields on savings accounts, affecting the attractiveness of certificates of deposit and high-yield savings accounts [3] - Major banks like Ally, American Express, and Synchrony have already reduced their savings account rates since the last Fed cut, with top rates for high-yield savings accounts around 4.35% to 4.6% [4] - The national average for traditional savings accounts is currently 0.61%, indicating a significant difference compared to high-yield options [5] Mortgage Market Outlook - The mortgage market has already priced in the recent rate cut, with current mortgage rates at their lowest levels in over a year [5] - Mortgage rates are influenced by bond market expectations regarding the economy and inflation, typically following the 10-year Treasury yield [6] - There is optimism that homebuyers may see mortgage rates drop below 6.00% in the next year, potentially encouraging refinancing and new home purchases [7]

All right, well we are less than 24 hours until the last Fed decision of the year with traders pricing in a near 90% chance that the committee cuts interest rates by a quarter of a point tomorrow. For more on the market impact, let's bring in Fast Money Friend and Richard Bernstein Advisors deputy CIO Michael Canopoulos. Michael, great to see you. >> Nice to see you, too.>> Let's assume that there is a cut. What is the commentary going to be like coming out of that cut. >> I think it's going to be hawkish.u ...

Summary of US Rates Outlook 2026 Fixed Income Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US rates market and the economic backdrop as it enters 2026, characterized by stalled inflation progress, uneven growth, and signs of labor market weakness [2][7][8]. Key Points and Arguments Economic Conditions - Economic growth in the US is more resilient than expected, potentially boosted by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and AI-driven capital expenditures [7]. - Consumer spending is mixed; higher-income consumers are driving spending while lower-income households face affordability challenges [7]. - Labor market indicators show a modest increase in unemployment and slowing nonfarm payroll growth, but the labor market has not collapsed [7][22]. Inflation and Interest Rates - Disinflation towards the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) 2% inflation target has stalled, with both headline and core inflation measures remaining around 3% [7][29]. - The report forecasts 10-year Treasury yields at 4.30% by the end of 2026, higher than the Bloomberg consensus of 4.06% [2][8]. - The Fed is expected to maintain a neutral duration conviction, with potential for yields to rise due to dual-sided risks to policy [6][8]. Federal Reserve Dynamics - The conclusion of Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair is a focal point, with potential personnel changes at the FOMC that could influence policy views [4][51]. - The Fed is likely to commence net asset purchases, particularly in T-bills, starting in Q1 2026 to mitigate funding pressures [4][65]. Treasury Supply and Demand - The Treasury's strategy of holding coupon issuance sizes steady is expected to continue through H1 2026, with maturity extension anticipated due to persistent deficit pressures [5][71]. - The report highlights that long-dated Treasuries may underperform swaps in the coming months due to supply and demand dynamics [5][89]. Yield Curve Scenarios - Four policy paths are outlined to frame potential rates outcomes: resilient growth with sticky inflation, inflation resurgence, moderate slowdown, and severe slowdown [3][35]. - The baseline scenario anticipates bear steepening of the yield curve, while an inflation resurgence could push 10-year yields to test 5% [10][39]. Risks and Market Positioning - The balance of risks skews towards further curve steepening, with optimal positioning suggested in the belly of the curve where structural risks are lower [3][46]. - The report cautions against long positions in the front-end due to negative carry and labor market concerns limiting hawkish repricing [9][46]. Additional Important Content - The report discusses the potential impact of the IEEPA tariff decision on fiscal deficits and the Treasury's reliance on T-bills for funding [81][84]. - It notes that the relative value of T-bills may decline as policy rates decrease, potentially shifting demand towards higher-returning risk assets [80][81]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring repo market pressures and their implications for Treasury supply absorption [100]. This comprehensive analysis provides insights into the US rates outlook for 2026, highlighting key economic indicators, Federal Reserve dynamics, and potential investment strategies within the Treasury market.

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are at two-week highs due to expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which is anticipated to boost economic growth and energy demand, while also considering geopolitical risks affecting oil supplies from Russia and Venezuela [1] Group 1 - Oil prices are currently elevated, reaching levels not seen in two weeks [1] - Investors are anticipating a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this week [1] - The expected rate cut is likely to enhance economic growth and increase energy demand [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical risks are being monitored, particularly those that could impact oil supplies from Russia and Venezuela [1]

Core Insights - Consumer spending increased in September, indicating a likely strong economic growth in the third quarter [1] Group 1 - The rise in consumer spending is expected to be a precursor to robust economic growth [1]

Economic Growth and Market Impact - The overall economy is showing weakness with real GDP growth at 2% year-on-year, employment growth at 0.8%, retail sales up only 1.3%, and industrial production increasing by 0.9% [2][3] - There is a concern that economic conditions will continue to deteriorate into the new year, prompting the Federal Reserve to implement more aggressive policy measures to avoid recession and support recovery [3][4] Government Debt and Inflation - Governments worldwide, including the US, are expected to face increasing deficits due to aging populations and demands for more services, which will likely lead to inflation [5] - The issuance of government bonds will necessitate money printing, contributing to inflationary pressures in the economy [6]

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