Key TakeawaysU.S. mortgage rates have reversed course, climbing after a period of steady declines, with the 30-year Freddie Mac fixed rate reaching 6.30% this week.Federal Reserve officials, including Austan Goolsbee, are exercising caution on further rate cuts, warning that premature easing could risk persistent inflation, despite a stable but mildly cooling labor market.Goldman Sachs (GS) President John Waldron indicates that trade is a limiting factor for growth, predicting the U.S. economy will grow les ...

Without small businesses and their hiring, already precarious economic growth could be prone to a pullback. ...

Core Viewpoint - The central bank has reduced its interest rate to 4% and indicated that further easing will likely be necessary to stimulate economic growth, with expectations of one rate cut per year over the next three years [1] Group 1 - The central bank's current interest rate is set at 4% [1] - Policymakers anticipate the need for additional rate cuts to support economic growth [1] - A forecast of one rate cut per year is expected for the next three years [1]

Group 1: Central Bank Actions - The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee implemented a 25 basis point rate cut, with only Governor Stephen Miran dissenting for a larger 50 basis point cut [2] - The Bank of Canada also cut rates, while the People's Bank of China maintained its position, and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority followed the Fed's lead [2] - The Bank of England is expected to announce its decision later, followed by the Bank of Japan [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - After a decline on Wall Street, Asian markets rebounded, with S&P 500 e-minis rising 0.5% and Nasdaq futures increasing by 0.7% [3] - European futures are also showing positive movement, with pan-region futures up 0.6%, German DAX futures gaining 0.7%, and FTSE futures increasing by 0.2% [3] - Bond markets rallied, with the yield on 10-year Treasury notes decreasing to 4.068% from 4.076% [3] Group 3: Commodity and Currency Movements - The dollar remained stable at 97.024 after recovering from a three-and-a-half-year low [4] - Gold prices fluctuated, last trading at $3,659.40 per ounce after reaching a record high [4] Group 4: Company-Specific Developments - Santos shares fell by as much as 13.6% after a consortium led by ADNOC withdrew its $18.7 billion bid due to failure to agree on commercial terms [6] - Brent crude oil prices decreased by 0.2% to $67.84 per barrel [6] Group 5: Upcoming Economic Indicators - Key corporate earnings reports are expected from Auto Trader Group, Embracer Group, and Next [6] - The UK will release GfK Consumer Confidence data for September [6] - France is set to conduct government debt auctions for various maturities [6]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is signaling a dovish stance with two more quarter-point interest rate cuts expected, indicating a divergence from Trump's pro-growth economic policies [1][2][3] - The second quarter GDP growth was reported at 3.3%, with the Atlanta Fed projecting the same growth rate for the third quarter, while the Fed's own projections are significantly lower at 1.6% for this year and 1.8% and 1.9% for the next two years [2][3] - There is a notable gap between Trump's expected economic growth of 3-4% and the Fed's forecast of less than 2%, suggesting a fundamental disagreement between the central bank and the administration [3][5] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has reportedly lost nearly $200 billion due to a mismatch of assets and liabilities, with some estimates suggesting losses could reach $250 billion [6][7] - The Fed's current management is criticized for poor financial performance, as they are paying banks higher interest rates than what their portfolio generates [6][7] - There is an expectation that Trump will appoint new members to the Fed who align more closely with his economic policies, which could lead to a more favorable environment for growth [7]

The Federal Reserve has a mandate to create maximum employment.They won’t have the intended impact of stimulating economic growth and reinvigorating the job market by only cutting 25 basis points.The market has already priced that in.They should do 50 basis points and show they are serious about supporting the economy. ...

Economic Growth Forecast - The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta upgraded its economic growth forecast by 0.3 percentage points, predicting a 3.4% annualized gain in GDP during Q3 [3] Consumer Spending Trends - Consumer spending, which accounts for approximately 70% of economic growth, has remained steady despite rising price pressures, a slowdown in hiring, and an increase in unemployment to 4.3% [3] - Spending surged early in the year due to consumers anticipating price increases from high U.S. tariffs, but this trend has waned since May, leading to a modest slowdown in spending [4] Retail Sales Performance - Retail sales exceeded forecasts in August, rising by 0.6% for the third consecutive month, despite job market weaknesses and declining consumer sentiment [7] - Nine out of 13 categories of goods saw gains, with e-commerce sales increasing by 2% and sales at clothing stores and sporting goods shops rising by 1% and 0.8%, respectively [7] Impact of Tariffs - Import taxes have negatively impacted sales, particularly in categories vulnerable to tariffs, such as sports equipment, electronics, and clothing [5] - One in four small businesses reported that tariffs and rising costs have led them to increase prices, indicating consumer anxiety regarding import taxes fueling price gains [6]

Core Insights - The CNBC Fed survey reveals significant disagreement among respondents regarding the Federal Reserve's actions and the implications of President Trump's influence on Fed independence [2][3][4] Group 1: Federal Reserve Expectations - 97% of respondents expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points, but only 41% believe this is the appropriate action [2][5] - 41% of respondents think a 50 basis point cut is warranted, while 28% believe the Fed should not cut rates at all [5] - The current year-end funds rate for 2025 is projected at 3.6%, down 30 basis points from the previous survey, with a further drop to 3.13% for 2026 [6] Group 2: Concerns Over Fed Independence - 82% of respondents believe President Trump is attempting to limit or eliminate Federal Reserve independence, with 41% indicating a desire to limit it and another 41% wanting to eliminate it [3][4] - 68% believe that these presidential actions will lead to higher inflation, while 57% think it will result in higher unemployment [4] - 74% of respondents anticipate a lower value of the US dollar as a consequence of these actions [5] Group 3: Future Fed Leadership - Among the 29 respondents, 45% believe President Trump will appoint Chris Waller as the next Fed Chair, while 24% favor Worsh and 17% favor Hasset [13] - The process for selecting the next Fed Chair is described as transparent, with the Treasury Secretary actively interviewing potential candidates [17][18] - The survey indicates a growing interest in the implications of Fed leadership on future policy decisions [15]

Group 1: Vehicle Sales Performance - New vehicle sales in Indonesia declined by 19% in August 2025, totaling 61,780 units compared to 76,302 units in August 2024 [1] - In the first eight months of 2025, the vehicle market shrank by 11% year-on-year to 500,951 units, following a 17% decline to 560,552 units in the same period last year [3] - Sales of light passenger vehicles fell by 11% to 387,110 units, while commercial vehicle sales declined by 9% to 113,841 units [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Market sentiment has weakened significantly, with fewer consumers making large purchases despite economic growth accelerating to 5.1% year-on-year in Q2 2025 [2] - Bank Indonesia cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.00% in August, down from a peak of 6.25% a year earlier, to stimulate consumer spending [2] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Japanese automakers face increased pressure from the growing presence of Chinese brands, particularly in the battery electric vehicle (BEV) segment [4] - BEV sales surged threefold to 53,100 units in the first eight months of 2025, with BYD and its Denza brand leading with 25,537 units [4] Group 4: Production and Exports - Overall vehicle production in Indonesia fell by over 3% year-to-date to 757,220 units, despite a 12% rise in exports of fully-assembled vehicles to 335,063 units [5]

Group 1 - Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated that measures to reduce inflation are effective [1] - There is a concern regarding whether additional actions are necessary to stimulate economic growth [1]