Vi e w p o i n t | 16 Nov 2025 10:21:02 ET │ 11 pages China Banks What's New from Citi 2025 China Conference CITI'S TAKE We hosted meetings with key China banks during our Citi China Conference during 11-14 Nov in Shenzhen and Shanghai. We summarize key takeaways below. NIM to diverge between big banks and regional banks in 2026E — NIM pressure could continue to moderate into 4Q25E given most banks have achieved 90%+ of full-year loan quota, which cools off pricing competition, although sector NIM should co ...

Core Insights - Fee income has emerged as a significant profit-generating avenue for domestic banks due to pressure on net interest margins (NIM) and treasury income [8][9] - Both State Bank of India (SBI) and HDFC Bank reported over 25% increase in fee income in the last quarter, with SBI and HDFC Bank posting 16% and nearly 19% increases respectively in the three months ended December 31 [8][9] - The Reserve Bank of India's interest rate cut to 5.50% has intensified the focus on fee income as banks seek to offset declining NIMs [2][8] Fee Income Sources - Loan products and credit cards are primary sources of fee income, with banks charging processing fees, documentation fees, and prepayment or foreclosure charges [2][8] - Banks are increasingly focusing on cross-selling products to generate 'other income' and enhance fee income [6][8] Credit Growth and Segments - Credit growth to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) is robust, with SBI reporting an 18.78% increase in SME loans and HDFC Bank showing a 17% increase [7][9] - Retail personal loans also saw significant growth, with SBI's retail loans expanding by 14.09% and HDFC Bank's by 7.4% [7][9] Market Dynamics - Banks with a strong retail base tend to have higher fee income, and as advances grow, so does the fee income [8][9] - The current environment of pressured NIMs makes fee income a crucial support for operating profits in the banking sector [8][9]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported net income of $61.1 million and core net income of $63.3 million for Q3 2025, with core earnings per share at $1.51 and a core return on average tangible common equity of 25.5% [5][18] - Net interest margin increased by 9 basis points to 2.73% from the prior quarter, while the cost of deposits fell by 9 basis points to 1.47% [5][6] - Net interest income before provision for credit losses was $92.7 million, an increase of $3.3 million or 3.7% from the previous quarter [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Non-interest income totaled $61.2 million, an increase of $4.2 million over the last quarter, driven by higher banking fees and increased foreign exchange revenues [13] - Core non-interest expenses decreased due to lower performance-based incentive accruals and reduced property expenses [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Bermuda's business environment remains stable with signs of growth in the local economy, including a forecasted budget surplus and increased corporate income tax revenue [8][9] - The Cayman Islands is expected to see a 2.5% GDP increase in 2025, with financial services and tourism being key economic pillars [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to enhance operational efficiency and maintain prudent expense discipline while focusing on capital management [19][20] - The strategy includes pursuing disciplined M&A and organic business development, with a focus on capital-efficient fee-based businesses [19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term value creation and highlighted the positive outlook for Bermuda's fiscal position and the growth in the international business sector [4][9] - The company remains conservative in its underwriting approach, focusing on high-quality residential lending across its markets [16] Other Important Information - The company announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.50 per share and continued its share repurchase program, buying back 700,000 shares at a cost of $30.3 million [6][7] - The tangible book value per share improved by 5.4% to $25.06 as unrealized losses on investments improved [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Margin trajectory outlook - Management indicated that deposit costs have decreased and there is potential for margin stability or slight expansion due to asset repricing [25][27] Question: Interest in crypto or stablecoin initiatives - Management described a cautious approach, monitoring developments in digital assets but not feeling pressure from clients to lead in this area [29][30] Question: Future expense management initiatives - Management discussed ongoing efforts to manage expenses, including moving back-office functions to Halifax and cloud migration of core banking systems [31][33] Question: Drivers of fee income growth - Management noted strong performance in banking driven by increased transaction volumes and tourism-related card services fees [41][42] Question: Growth expectations in loans and deposits - Management highlighted Bermuda as a key area for deposit growth and noted a conservative approach to loan growth, with encouraging signs in the loan pipeline particularly in Cayman [43][45]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported earnings of $140.9 million, translating to an EPS of $2.22 per diluted share for Q3 2025, reflecting a solid foundation for future growth [4] - Total outstanding loan balances increased by 2.4% sequentially, adding nearly $1.2 billion over the past two quarters [4][7] - Net interest margin expanded by 11 basis points, with core net interest income increasing by $11.3 million [5][14] - Fee income grew by 3.6% sequentially, contributing to overall performance [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The core commercial and industrial (CNI) loan portfolio grew by 1.4% quarter over quarter, while the commercial real estate (CRE) business increased by 4.2% [7][8] - The specialty lending portfolio saw a slight increase, with healthcare loans up by 1.8% driven by strong origination activity [8] - Investment banking revenue reached a record of $16.1 million, primarily due to municipal bond underwriting activity [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Assets under management (AUMA) grew by 4.1% to $122.7 billion, marking the highest quarter on record [12] - The company maintained a strong liquidity profile with a loan-to-deposit ratio in the mid-60% range, providing strategic flexibility [5] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to sustain loan growth momentum, particularly in commercial real estate and core CNI, while being cautious about energy sector exposure [22] - M&A opportunities are considered, but the company prioritizes organic growth and share repurchases as primary uses of capital [24][25] - The launch of mortgage finance is expected to contribute significantly to growth, with a target of $500 million in commitments by year-end [32][42] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in maintaining strong loan growth despite competitive pressures and market disruptions from M&A activity [22] - The company anticipates that net charge-offs will remain well below historical norms, supported by strong credit quality [9][17] - Future guidance includes expectations for loan growth of 5 to 7% and net interest income between $1.325 billion and $1.35 billion [16][17] Other Important Information - The company repurchased over 365,000 shares at an average price of $111 per share during the quarter [6] - Credit quality remains a core strength, with a combined allowance for credit losses at 1.32% of outstanding loans [9][10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Loan growth expectations and competitive forces - Management noted strong loan growth of around 2.5% in recent quarters and expressed confidence in sustaining this momentum despite competitive pressures from M&A activity [20][22] Question: Capital allocation and M&A considerations - The company prioritizes organic growth and share repurchases, with M&A being a secondary consideration, focusing on strong core deposit franchises [24][25] Question: Core margin trends and expectations - Management indicated a continued upward trend in core margin, driven by fixed-rate asset repricing and deposit repricing opportunities [30] Question: Mortgage finance growth potential - The company expects significant growth in mortgage finance, with a target of $500 million in commitments by year-end and a strong appetite for growth in 2026 [32][42] Question: Fee income range and guidance - Management acknowledged the challenges in predicting fee income but expressed confidence in good activity across various fee-generating businesses [38] Question: Credit quality and charge-off expectations - Management reiterated strong credit quality and low charge-off expectations, with a long-term average loss rate projected around 20 to 25 basis points [66][67]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a mixed bag on asset quality, with three loans migrating to substandard categories and a couple of charge-offs, but overall asset quality remained stable [7][10][12] - The largest foreclosed asset, Lincoln Yards Land in Chicago, was sold at book value, contributing positively to the asset resolution efforts [8] - Combined special mention, substandard, and foreclosed assets decreased modestly during the quarter, indicating stable asset quality [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The residential real estate sector, particularly multifamily and condos, performed well, while office and industrial sectors showed continued absorption and leasing activity [12][13] - The company experienced record origination growth in the Corporate and Institutional Banking (CIB) segment, with nearly two dozen new relationships established [30] - The CIB group is expected to grow significantly, contributing to a more balanced loan portfolio in the future [22][42] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The commercial real estate (CRE) market is seeing a flight to quality, with high demand for Class A office spaces, while lower quality projects are taking longer to lease [12][13] - The infusion of liquidity into the CRE space is evident from record levels of paydowns, indicating a growing willingness among sponsors to refinance [10][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to diversify its loan portfolio, with expectations that CIB will rival the legacy RESG segment in volume over the next several years [22][42] - The focus is on optimizing capital allocation and improving utilization rates in the CIB segment to enhance returns for shareholders [24][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about loan growth in 2027, anticipating a shift from high levels of payoffs in 2025 and 2026 to positive contributions from RESG [21][22] - The company is closely monitoring the credit quality of its portfolio, with a strong emphasis on sponsor support to mitigate risks [59][60] Other Important Information - The company is actively rebalancing its legacy books to improve capital efficiency and returns [26] - The management highlighted the importance of thorough underwriting practices, especially in the lender finance space, to mitigate risks associated with recent market volatility [33][39] Q&A Session Summary Question: Commentary on real estate market absorption trends - Management noted that absorption is improving across various real estate classes, with a focus on high-quality assets [4][12] Question: Insights on CIB portfolio and recent headlines - The CIB segment saw record origination growth, with a focus on diversification and maintaining a conservative approach to underwriting [30][32] Question: Expectations for loan origination volumes - Management indicated that the low origination volume in the last quarter was likely an anomaly, with expectations for a return to typical levels in the upcoming quarter [68] Question: Impact of Fed rate cuts on margins - Management explained that there is typically a lag in margin stabilization following Fed cuts, with expectations for a couple of quarters of compressed margins [46][48] Question: Future growth outlook for EPS and net income - Management expects record net interest income and EPS in the coming year, with significant growth anticipated in 2027 [49][50]

Core Insights - The Bank of New York Mellon Corp. reported third-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations, driven by rising global stock markets and higher asset valuations that strengthened fee income [1] - Assets under custody and administration increased by 11% year-over-year to $57.8 trillion as of September 30, attributed to client inflows and elevated market levels [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue rose by 9% to $5.08 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $4.98 billion [3] - Net income attributable to common shareholders increased by 21% to $1.34 billion [3] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share were reported at $1.91, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.77 [3] Fee Revenue and Market Conditions - Fee revenue increased by 7% to $3.64 billion, supported by a stronger equity market and a weaker dollar [2] - The S&P 500 index rose more than 13% year-to-date, contributing to the bank's improved financial performance [2] Business Drivers - Strong demand for asset servicing and growth in investment management fees continued to support performance across the bank's core businesses [4] - Provisions for credit losses were a net benefit of $7 million, reflecting an improved macroeconomic outlook, partially offset by higher reserves for commercial real estate exposure [3]

Core Insights - Capital One (COF) is expected to report third-quarter 2025 results on October 21, with revenues anticipated to rise year-over-year, while earnings are likely to decline [1][10]. Financial Performance - In Q2, COF's earnings exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate, supported by the Discover Financial acquisition, increased net interest income (NII), and improved loan balances, despite rising expenses and provisions [2]. - COF has a strong earnings surprise history, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 23.02% [3]. Key Factors for Q3 Earnings - The lending environment improved in Q3 due to clarity on macro issues, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for total average earning assets at $577.1 billion, reflecting a 9.9% increase from the previous quarter [4]. - NII is projected to grow sequentially by 19.7% to $11.96 billion, driven by loan growth and stable rates [6]. - Interchange fees, which make up over 60% of fee income, are expected to rise by 23.5% sequentially to $1.82 billion due to increased card usage [7]. - Total non-interest income is estimated to surge by 19.2% to $2.98 billion, with service charges and other customer-related fees expected to grow by 20.5% to $792.4 million [8][9]. Expenses and Asset Quality - Total non-interest expenses are anticipated to rise by 32.5% to $8.26 billion, influenced by higher marketing costs, technology investments, and the Discover Financial acquisition [9]. - Provisions for credit losses are estimated at $3.51 billion, reflecting concerns over potential delinquent loans amid rising loan balances [11]. Earnings Expectations - The likelihood of COF beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is high, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +1.62% and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [12][13]. - The consensus estimate for Q3 earnings is $4.23, indicating a 6.2% decline from the prior year, while sales are expected to jump by 48.8% to $14.9 billion [13].

Financial Performance - Net income for Q2 2025 was $140 million, with earnings per diluted share of $2.19 [2] - Total fees and commissions increased by 7.2% sequentially, with several fee lines achieving record quarterly revenue [4][26] - Trading revenue reached $30.5 million, up 31% quarter on quarter as market conditions normalized [4][11] Loan Growth - Total outstanding loans rose 2.5% sequentially, annualizing above 10%, driven by growth in commercial real estate, core commercial and industrial lending, and loans to individuals [3][19] - The commercial real estate portfolio grew 6.9% quarter over quarter, primarily in multifamily housing, retail, and industrial project lending [3][22] - Specialty lending portfolio decreased by 1.6% quarter over quarter, with a 4.4% contraction in energy lending, partially offset by a 0.5% expansion in healthcare [4][20] Wealth Management - Assets under management and administration increased by $3.9 billion sequentially to a record $117.9 billion, attributed to market appreciation and new business [5][26] - Fiduciary and asset management revenue grew by $3 million, reflecting higher trust and mutual fund fees [26] Net Interest Income and Capital - Net interest income increased by $11.9 million, with reported net interest margin expanding by two basis points [6][28] - Tangible common equity rose to 9.6%, and common equity tier 1 capital reached 13.6% after share repurchases and redemption of Tier 2 capital instruments [6][18] Credit Quality - Allowance for credit losses was $330 million, or 1.36% of loans, with nonperforming assets not guaranteed by the U.S. government decreasing by $4 million to $70 million [7][24] - Net charge-offs were minimal at $561,000, maintaining recent averages of one basis point over the last twelve months [7][24] Expense Management - Total expenses rose by $7 million quarter over quarter, with nonpersonnel costs increasing due to higher technology project costs and operational losses [8][30] - Personnel costs remained stable, with a slight increase in compensation offset by lower payroll taxes [8][30] Future Outlook - The company expects full-year loan growth, net interest income, and fee income guidance to remain unchanged for fiscal 2025, despite lingering economic policy uncertainties [12][31] - The launch of the mortgage finance and warehouse lending business is anticipated to support future loan growth, with expectations to reach $500 million in commitments by year-end 2025 [9][63]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Earnings per share (EPS) for the second quarter was $0.91, excluding merger-related charges, representing an 86% increase year over year [5][14] - Net interest margin improved to 3.59%, a 64 basis point increase year over year [6][17] - Net income excluding merger and restructuring expenses was $87.3 million, compared to $29.4 million in the prior year [5][14] - Total assets increased by 52% year over year to $27.6 billion, driven by the Premier acquisition and organic growth [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fee income grew by 40% year over year, totaling $44 million in the second quarter [8][18] - Organic loan growth was 6% year over year, with total commercial loans increasing by 7% [10][14] - The trust and securities brokerage business grew to $10 billion in assets under management [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total deposits increased by 58% year over year to $21.2 billion, with organic growth of $849 million [17] - Organic deposit growth excluding certificates of deposit was more than 5% year over year [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to grow fee income as a percentage of total revenue and expand its presence in new markets, including Knoxville and Northern Virginia [9][11] - Strategic investments are being made in the healthcare sector to meet unique client needs [11][32] - The focus remains on executing the Premier acquisition and enhancing operational efficiency [33] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about loan growth despite potential headwinds from commercial real estate payoffs [71] - The company anticipates mid to upper single-digit loan growth for the remainder of 2025 [37][39] - Management expects to fund loan growth with deposit growth for the full year [9][17] Other Important Information - The efficiency ratio improved by 10 percentage points year over year to 55.5% [6] - The company has begun to see a rebound in deposits in July after a seasonal decline [17] - Regulatory capital ratios remain above well-capitalized standards [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Increase in criticized loans and maintaining credit culture - Management noted that the increase in criticized loans is primarily due to regrading of acquired clients, but they expect improvements in the third quarter [28][30] Question: Capital deployment priorities - The company prioritizes dividends and organic growth, with M&A and buybacks being lower on the list [31][33] Question: Loan growth expectations - Management targets mid to upper single-digit growth, contingent on commercial real estate payoffs [37][39] Question: Branch rationalization - The company will evaluate branch profitability and may close some branches in the second half of the year [40][41] Question: Margin accretion assumptions - Management anticipates a drop in margin accretion in the third quarter but expects a rebound in the fourth quarter [46][63] Question: Deposit pipelines and growth - The company plans to launch a new deposit campaign and expects robust growth in the commercial space [78][80] Question: Preferred stock and subordinated debt refinancing - Management is evaluating options for calling preferred stock and refinancing subordinated debt that will reset soon [90][91]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted earnings per diluted share of $0.72, representing an adjusted return on assets of 1.41% [4] - Net interest income increased by 4.6% over the prior quarter, while fee income rose by 15% [11] - The net interest margin improved by 10 basis points to 3.51% [12] - Adjusted pre-provision net revenue grew by 23.2% over the prior quarter [27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The retirement services business generated stable revenue of over $16 million, with assets under administration and management increasing by 6.3% [17][18] - The wealth management business saw revenues increase by 6.6% on a linked quarter basis, with assets under management rising by 2.5% [18] - Noninterest income from banking was $8.4 million for the second quarter, with a $2.1 million gain related to the sale of hospitality loans [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Deposits shrank by 3.3% due to expected seasonal outflows from public funds [15] - The company expects continued seasonal volatility in deposits, with average deposit account sizes growing over 20% since 2019 [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maximizing profitability through disciplined pricing and enhancing its diversified business model [4][5] - Strategic initiatives include optimizing the balance sheet and investing in talent and technology to deepen client relationships [8][9] - The company aims to achieve consistent performance levels and is targeting mid-single-digit loan growth for 2025 [22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged macroeconomic uncertainty and competitive pressures but emphasized a disciplined approach to growth and credit risk management [87] - The guidance for the year remains consistent, with expectations for low single-digit deposit growth and continued focus on core business lines [22][26] Other Important Information - The company recorded no provision for the quarter due to a net gain from the sale of hospitality loans [6] - The adjusted efficiency ratio improved to 52.4% from 66.9% in the prior quarter [19] - The company remains well-capitalized with a common equity Tier one capital ratio of 10.5% [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for third and fourth quarter accretion? - The company expects 27 basis points of purchase accounting accretion in the third quarter and 22 basis points in the fourth quarter, with no early payoffs included [29][34] Question: What is the status of the larger construction credit? - The final certificate of occupancy was issued, and the property is currently at 57% leased, with expectations for a sale in early 2026 [37][65] Question: How does the company view the capital deployment for the rest of the year? - The company prioritizes organic balance sheet growth, maintaining dividend history, and pursuing M&A opportunities in the retirement sector [45] Question: What is the outlook for noninterest income? - The company expects noninterest income to be up low single digits for the year, factoring in seasonal downturns in the mortgage business [25][80] Question: How is the company addressing nonperforming assets? - Nonperforming assets are primarily driven by two large relationships, with resolutions expected in early 2026 [65][66] Question: What is the outlook for deposit costs? - The company anticipates an increase of 8 to 10 basis points in deposit costs due to competition and a shift from non-interest bearing to interest-bearing deposits [73][76]