财政部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局印发《个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施方案》：贴息范围包括单笔5万元以下消费，以及单笔5万元及以上的家用汽车、养老生育、教育培训、文化旅游、家居家装、电子产品、健康医疗等重点领域消费。年贴息比例为1个百分点，最高不超过贷款合同利率的50%，中央财政、省级财政分别承担贴息资金的90%、10%。 ...

6 August 2025 | 4:13PM HKT Yuting Yang +852-2978-7283 | yuting.y.yang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Chelsea Song +852-2978-0106 | chelsea.song@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Asia in Focus China H2 Fiscal Outlook: Less Fiscal Expansion Needed (Wang) Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Hui Shan +852-2978-6634 | hui.shan@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Lisheng Wang +852-3966-4004 | lisheng.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Xinquan Chen +852-2978-241 ...

In 2020 and 2021 the combination of loose monetary and fiscal policy was often credited for the surge in speculation. That cannot be the explanation today, when trading remains far above what was previously considered normal https://t.co/p9ycM9T1zY ...

Global Economic Outlook - Global economic growth expectations are diminished compared to previous expectations, but a modest upward revision exists compared to April due to easing trade tensions [2][3][4] - Medium-term growth has been relatively weak and is expected to continue, with tariffs potentially exacerbating this trend [6][7] Impact of Tariffs - Tariffs are expected to be around 17% on average for the US on the rest of the world, a significant increase from less than 3% last year [5] - The depreciation of the US dollar is amplifying the tariff shock, making foreign goods more expensive and US goods more competitive [10] - Tariffs are starting to transmit into domestic prices, with importers, distributors, retailers, and eventually customers likely to bear the cost [12][13] US Economic Performance - US GDP outlook for 2025 is revised to 19%, with a slight acceleration to 2% growth in 2026, partly due to tariffs not being as severe as expected and the recent budget bill [7][9][11] - The US economy has been helped by easing financial conditions, with equity markets performing well and a depreciation of the US dollar [10] Trade Deficits and Policy - The US is concerned about its trade deficit, a legitimate concern monitored by the IMF [15][16] - Tariffs and trade policy are unlikely to significantly reduce the US's external deficits, which are primarily driven by domestic fiscal policy [17][18] - The US fiscal policy, with 6-7% public deficits, is a primary driver of the external deficit, and addressing this through fiscal policy is preferable to raising tariffs [18][19]

Economic Challenges and Policy Shifts - Germany's infrastructure is deteriorating, impacting daily life and economic efficiency [1][21][24] - The traditional German economic model, heavily reliant on exports, faces challenges from rising nationalism, protectionism, and competition from Chinese manufacturers [11][12] - Germany is shifting away from austerity with a €500 billion (500 billion euros) ad hoc fund over 12 years to modernize infrastructure [2][4] - The debt break, which previously limited borrowing to 035% of GDP annually, has been relaxed, allowing for increased public investment [7] Defense and Security - Germany recognizes the need to strengthen its defense capabilities due to the perceived threat from Russia and the declining reliability of the US as an ally [10][15] - There are no longer debt constraints on defense spending, signaling a significant policy shift [2][4] - Increased defense spending is seen as an opportunity for car manufacturers and related industries to diversify [2][18] - Underinvestment in infrastructure and defense during the Merkel years has led to deterioration [21] Infrastructure and Investment - In 2024, Germany invested a record €19 billion (19 billion euros) in infrastructure renovation [25] - Bureaucratic hurdles and capacity constraints may limit the ability to effectively spend the allocated funds [30][31] - The federal structure of Germany can hinder the efficient allocation of funds to local municipalities [33] Social and Political Implications - Failure to improve infrastructure and public services could fuel support for the far-right party, AfD [40][42] - Investment in public goods and infrastructure is seen as an investment in democracy [41] - Germany's aging population and increasing social costs necessitate integrating more women into the labor force and capitalizing on migration [36][37][38]

Monetary Policy - A potential Bank of Thailand governor aims for a "little more aggressive" approach in communicating interest rate strategies [1] - The candidate emphasizes the need for enhanced coordination between monetary and fiscal policies [1]

Market Risk - Japan's bond market is facing a potential crisis due to the risk of a ruling coalition defeat in Sunday's election [1] - The election outcome fuels concerns over fiscal policy [1] Source - SMBC Nikko Securities highlights the potential risks [1]

Monetary Policy - Bank Indonesia maintains a dovish stance [1] Fiscal Policy - Easing concerns over Indonesia's fiscal policy [1] Bond Market - Expectation that government bonds will extend a rally [1]

Trade and Tariffs - The market is showing fatigue towards tariff headlines, anticipating room for negotiation in trade talks [2] - The market expects potential trade deals, preferring them over high tariffs, leading to current calmness [3] - Average tariff levels are expected to be slightly higher, but not reaching the high levels seen in early April [5] - Uncertainty remains regarding how much tariffs will be passed on to corporations versus absorbed by consumers, impacting consumer spending patterns [10] Monetary Policy and Fiscal Outlook - The Federal Reserve's September decision will heavily rely on the jobs report [7][8] - Tariffs are seen as a revenue source to fund additional spending, potentially leading the US Treasury to issue more short-term debt to keep funding costs down [13] - Aggressive rate cuts by the Fed could lead to higher back-end yields, advocating for curve steepness [19] - The market is closely watching the private sector's willingness to buy government bonds, as they are now the primary price setters [14][15] UK Gilts Market - Concerns persist regarding the UK's fiscal situation and funding, especially with slowing growth [20] - Stability and the Bank of England's proactive rate cuts could make gilts attractive [22]

Market Volatility and Economic Outlook - The market has become accustomed to policy twists and turns, anticipating quick reversals to more favorable conditions [2] - Volatility is currently painful, but a settling down of policy could allow positive economic forces to take over [3] - The economy is in good shape with low unemployment, steady employment, and gradually decreasing inflation [5] - Fiscal policy is stimulative, and monetary policy is increasingly accommodative, creating tailwinds for the economy and markets [6][7] - The Federal Reserve (Fed) is correct in waiting for more evidence of weakening employment or reduced inflation before cutting interest rates [8] - There is a belief that there will be a couple of interest rate cuts this year, with the probability of three cuts being greater than one [8][9] Federal Reserve and Political Influence - The market has generally received Jay Powell well, despite initial concerns about his non-traditional economist background [15] - Jay Powell has done an excellent job, especially considering the challenges of COVID-induced inflation [16][17] - Political pressure on the Fed continues, raising questions about the next Fed chair and potential for a more dovish approach [9][11][12][13] - Any future Fed chair must build consensus among the Open Market Committee members, requiring a balanced approach [14] Political and Economic Divides - The current budget and tax bill primarily benefits wealthier individuals, potentially not resonating with the broader electorate [19] - Affordability is a key issue, as many people are not benefiting from the economy's performance to the same extent as those at the top [23] - New York City needs to focus on job creation, affordable housing, education, and public safety to maintain its standing as a financial capital [26][27][28]