High home prices and interest rates have contributed to a relatively stuck market that's on pace for the slowest pace of existing home sales growth in a quarter century. So, what's it going to take to unstick it and bring in new buyers. Let's talk to Meredith Whitney about that.Meredith Whitney, Advisory Group CEO. Meredith, it's good to see you. I I mean, these numbers are pretty astonishing in terms of the ages, right.If you take home home buyers overall, not just first time, the age is 59. Um, >> 50% fro ...

Summary of China Property Monthly Tracker Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese property market**, highlighting significant declines in new property starts, sales, and construction activities, indicating a downturn in the sector. Key Points Market Performance - **New starts** in October 2025 fell to the lowest monthly level (excluding January and February) since the current downturn began [2][9] - **Primary sales** volume and value declined by **19%** and **24%** year-over-year (YoY), respectively, while construction activities (completion and new starts) plunged nearly **30%** YoY [2][9] - **Secondary sales volume** also fell short of expectations, contributing to a broader weakening in market sentiment and income expectations [2][9] Price Trends - The **average selling price (ASP)** for properties continued to decline, with primary ASPs down **0.5%** month-over-month (MoM) and secondary ASPs down **0.7%** MoM in October [9][31] - The **ASP** in tier-1 cities showed a **0.3%** decline for primary and **0.9%** for secondary markets, indicating a divergence in pricing trends [9][31] Future Expectations - For November 2025, expectations include: 1. Continued price weakness, especially in secondary ASPs across all cities [3][11] 2. An expansion in the YoY decline for primary transaction volume and value, with new starts remaining weak [3][11] 3. A narrowing trend in secondary transaction volume YoY, but still recording substantial declines [3][11] 4. A further decline in land sales volume and a potential negative YoY change in land sales value [3][11] Developer Insights - Developers' land acquisition profitability improved slightly month-over-month in October, with land acquisition spending averaging **28%** of contract sales, down from **54%** in September [2][10] - The report notes that developers are likely to be less aggressive in land banking for the remainder of the year, having largely met their full-year land replenishment plans [18][10] Government Policies and Market Sentiment - The report highlights ongoing discussions regarding the removal of housing purchase restrictions in core districts of tier-1 cities, which could positively impact home purchases [4][10] - There is a noted deterioration in the demand-side strength score, which dropped to **37 out of 100**, indicating a challenging environment for home purchases and secondary market performance [53][55] Construction and Investment Trends - Construction activities are expected to see a high single-digit percentage decline YoY for completions and a **30-40%** decline for new starts in November [17][11] - Developers are expected to focus on smaller projects with better ASP visibility and easier product positioning, rather than larger land parcels requiring phased development [18][10] Financial Metrics - The report provides a detailed summary of key market indicators, including: - **GFA sold**: **61 million sqm** in October, down **18.8%** YoY - **Property sales**: **Rmb 0.6 trillion**, down **24.3%** YoY - **ASP**: **Rmb 9,723/sqm**, down **6.8%** YoY - **New starts**: **37 million sqm**, down **29.5%** YoY - **Completions**: **37 million sqm**, down **28.2%** YoY [20][29] Conclusion - The Chinese property market is experiencing significant challenges, with declining sales, construction activities, and prices. The outlook for November remains cautious, with expectations of continued weakness in both primary and secondary markets. Developers are adjusting their strategies in response to market conditions, and government policies may play a crucial role in shaping future demand.

Core Insights - Existing home sales increased by 1.5% in September to an annual rate of 4.06 million, marking the highest level since February and a year-over-year increase of 4.1% [1][2] Group 1: Market Conditions - Lower mortgage rates, which dropped from approximately 6.7% to 6.3%, contributed to the uptick in home sales [2] - Inventory levels rose to 1.55 million homes for sale in September, reflecting a 14% increase from the previous year and a 1.3% increase from August [3] Group 2: Buyer Demographics - Sales in the luxury market saw significant gains, with homes priced over $1 million experiencing a 20% increase year-over-year, and homes priced between $750,000 and $999,999 rising by 14.4% [5] - First-time homebuyers accounted for 30% of sales in September, which is an increase from recent months but still below historical averages of high 30% to low 40% [6]

Core Insights - The week of October 12 to 18 is identified as the optimal time for homebuyers, offering a favorable combination of affordability, selection, and negotiation power [1][10][13] Mortgage Rates - 30-year fixed mortgage rates have decreased to the low-to-mid-6% range, down from a high of 7.79% in October 2023 [2] - Mortgage rates typically align with the 10-year Treasury yield, which has been between 4% and 4.3% [2] - A $350,000 mortgage at a 6.5% rate versus a 7% rate results in a monthly difference of approximately $117, totaling over $40,000 over 30 years [3] Housing Inventory - Existing home sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4 million in August 2025, with housing inventory rising to 1.53 million homes, an 11.7% increase from August 2024 [5] - In the new home market, builders sold homes at an annual pace of 652,000 in July, with 499,000 homes available for sale, indicating a 9.2-month supply, up from 7.5 months in July 2024 [6] Home Prices - Home prices are high but are increasing at a slower rate, with a 0.1% decrease reported in July 2025, while the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose 1.7% year-over-year, down from 1.9% in June [7] - Price trends vary by location, with some areas experiencing flat prices or slight decreases, while others face higher demand [7] Rental Market - Rents continue to rise, with primary residence rents and owner's equivalent rent each increasing by 0.3% from June to July 2025, and owner's equivalent rent is about 4% higher than a year ago [8] - A renter paying $1,500 per month would see an increase of approximately $60 monthly due to a 4.1% rise, equating to about $720 more annually [9] Buying Conditions - During the week of October 12 to 18, active listings are expected to be about 32.6% higher than at the start of 2025, with listings receiving about 30.6% fewer views per property compared to peak buying season [10][11] - Listing prices during this week are typically 3.4% lower than yearly highs, potentially saving buyers around $15,000 on a $439,000 home [11][14] - Approximately 5.5% of listings see price reductions, and homes remain on the market about two weeks longer than during busier months, providing buyers with more negotiation leverage [11] Local Market Trends - In 45 of the top 50 metro areas, the best week to buy falls within a month of the October 12 to 18 timeframe, with some regions experiencing optimal buying opportunities slightly earlier or later [12]

Core Insights - Existing-home sales in August decreased by 0.2% from July, remaining stable overall [1][5] - The Midwest region showed month-over-month sales increases, while the Northeast and South experienced declines [2] - Year-over-year sales rose in the Midwest and South, but fell in the Northeast and West [2] Sales and Inventory Data - Total existing-home sales for August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.0 million, reflecting a 0.2% decrease month-over-month and a 1.8% increase year-over-year [5] - Total housing inventory in August was 1.53 million units, down 1.3% from July but up 11.7% from August 2024 [5] - The median existing-home price in August was $422,600, marking a 2.0% increase from the previous year [3][5] Regional Performance - The Midwest was the best-performing region, with median home prices 22% below the national median [2] - The Northeast and South saw declines in sales, while the Midwest and West experienced increases [2] Mortgage Rates - The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in August was 6.59%, down from 6.72% in July and 6.50% a year ago [8] Market Dynamics - Elevated mortgage rates and limited inventory have contributed to sluggish home sales in recent years [2] - Declining mortgage rates and increasing inventory are expected to boost sales in the coming months [2] - Record-high housing wealth and stock market performance may encourage current homeowners to trade up, benefiting the upper end of the market [2]

Core Viewpoint - Sales of previously owned U.S. homes decreased slightly in August due to affordability challenges for buyers, despite a recent decline in mortgage borrowing costs [1][2]. Sales Performance - Home sales fell by 0.2% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million units, down from 4.01 million in July, while year-over-year sales increased by 1.8% [2]. - The sales pace over the last two years has averaged around 4 million units per month, which is weaker than the rates observed during the 2007-2009 recession [3]. Mortgage Rates and Inventory - The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage recently decreased to 6.26%, the lowest since last fall, but remains significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels [4]. - Total inventory of homes for sale declined by 1.3% to 1.53 million units, with the current sales pace indicating that this inventory would last 4.6 months [6]. Regional Sales Trends - Sales trends varied by region, with increases in the Midwest and West, while the Northeast and South experienced declines. The Midwest's performance is attributed to better affordability [5]. Pricing Trends - The median sales price of homes rose by 2.0% year-over-year to $422,600, marking the 26th consecutive year-over-year increase, and prices in August were 52% higher than in August 2019 [5]. Buyer Composition - The share of all-cash transactions decreased to 28% from 31% in July, while investors accounted for 21% of all transactions, up from 20% the previous month. First-time buyers represented 28% of sales, unchanged from the previous month but up from 26% a year ago [6].

Inventory & Market Trends - Nationwide inventory has returned to pre-pandemic levels, reaching a 6-year high [1] - New developments are more desirable due to their move-in ready and turnkey nature [2] - The Northeast market is performing better due to lower supply compared to the rest of the country [2] - Florida has experienced a significant shift, with 8% fewer transactions compared to the previous year [2] - Nine states have experienced year-over-year price decreases [3] Rental Market - Overall, the rental market is in a better position [3] - Rental prices in New York have increased by 7% year-over-year due to the fair act, which shifted rental commissions from renters to landlords [3][4]

Core Insights - The Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau announced the planned pre-sale of commercial housing for the third quarter of 2025, with 33 projects expected to enter the market, totaling a supply area of 1.3512 million square meters and 12,351 units [1] - Compared to the same period last year, there is a significant decline in commercial housing supply, with a drop of over 25% in both the number of projects and residential units [2] - The reduction in inventory is reflected in transaction data, with a year-on-year increase in pre-sale residential transactions, indicating a potential market recovery [3] Supply Overview - In Q3 2025, 33 commercial housing projects are set to be launched, with residential projects making up the majority at 31 projects, covering an area of 1.08 million square meters and 10,673 units [1] - The supply breakdown includes 2.51 million square meters of serviced apartments (129 units), 6.93 million square meters of commercial space (710 units), and 17.7 million square meters of office space (839 units) [1] - The main supply areas include Bao'an with 7 projects (3,364 residential units) and Guangming with 5 projects (1,702 residential units) [1] Year-on-Year Comparison - In Q3 2024, there were 44 projects with a total supply area of 2.0246 million square meters and 18,150 units, indicating a significant decrease in supply for Q3 2025 [2] - The residential supply area in Q3 2024 was 1.4912 million square meters with 14,955 units, showing a decline in both metrics in 2025 [2] - The downward trend in supply began earlier in 2025, with a notable reduction in the first half of the year [2] Market Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, the number of new residential units supplied was 13,877, down 28.6% year-on-year, with a supply area of 1.398 million square meters, reflecting a five-year low [2] - The average transaction price for new residential properties has decreased, but the decline is less severe compared to the previous year, indicating price stabilization [3] - The reduction in interest rates, with a 45 basis point drop in both 1-year and 5-year LPR, has led to increased promotional efforts by developers, making home purchases more affordable [3] Future Outlook - The current market conditions present a favorable window for potential homebuyers due to policy easing and lower costs [3] - There is an expectation for further policy measures to stimulate market demand, alongside improved market confidence due to easing trade tensions [3]

Housing inventory in May was up by more than 30% compared with last year and in some cities, homes for sale soared past pre-pandemic levels. https://t.co/u6Vp8NJtzd ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive view on select covered developers, reiterating Buy ratings on CRL, COLI, Greentown, Jinmao, and Longfor [6][50][51]. Core Insights - The housing supply ratio in China is currently at 1X, which is lower or comparable to other sample countries, indicating potential for improvement as inventory is disclosed [2][8]. - The report identifies that 37% of sample cities have a housing supply ratio below 0.9X, while 26% have a ratio above 1.1X, with the excess inventory concentrated in Tier-3 and Tier-4 cities [8][14]. - The analysis suggests that a long-term housing supply ratio of 1.1X is reasonable, implying a potential funding need of Rmb0.7tn-1.6tn for inventory buybacks, which is equivalent to 0.5-1.2% of national GDP [6][35][36]. - The government has accelerated land buyback efforts, announcing nearly Rmb400bn in buybacks, primarily focused on lower-tier cities [6][37][47]. Summary by Sections Housing Supply Ratios - The report examines 78 cities, accounting for approximately 50% of China's population and housing stock, revealing a housing supply ratio of 0.7X for Tier-1 cities, 0.89X for Tier-2 cities, and 1.02X for Tier-3/4 cities [6][8][11]. - The report builds four illustrative cases to analyze how housing ratios could change based on different assumptions regarding urban household formation and living space per capita [27][28]. Inventory Analysis - As of end-1Q25, the sample cities are estimated to have 1.5 billion square meters of unsold residential inventory, with nearly half remaining as raw land [22][25]. - The average saleable inventory is projected to last 26 months, while total unsold inventory could take up to 6 years to clear [25][22]. Developer Performance - The report highlights that covered developers have shown more resilient primary average selling price (ASP) performance compared to secondary markets, with a significant portion of land investment concentrated in top-performing markets [50][51]. - The expected improvement in margins and return on equity (ROE) beyond 2027 is supported by better investment strategies and decreasing contributions from older low-margin land banks [51][60].