The results of our measure of “inflation entrenchment”, which ranks ten rich countries on five indicators (core inflation, unit labour costs, inflation dispersion, inflation expectations and Google-search behaviour), reveal a linguistic divide https://t.co/NRS99MyjRv ...

It does look like it's getting worse. The picture is getting worse, both in terms of confidence and in terms of inflation expectations. Am I reading that correctly.That's right. Overall, consumer views have worsened over the last month and have partially reversed some of the improvements that we had seen in June and July. Overall, consumers are seeing a worsening outlook for unemployment, for inflation.A lot of this is being driven by what they're seeing around them in terms of high prices right now. We had ...

Joining us now is Frederick Michigan, former Federal Reserve Governor and currently an economics professor at Columbia University. Uh Frederick, great to see you. What what crossed your mind when you saw this PPI number this morning.How much of this is clearly tariffs and how much does it complicate the narrative that well the Fed of course has to cut in September and then we'll continue. So I don't put a huge amount of weight on a PPI uh particular number. It's very volatile.Uh however, even before this, I ...

US consumer inflation expectations rose in July and perceptions of the job market improved, according to a monthly Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey https://t.co/CQixboahOV ...

Summary of Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index and Labor Market Insights Industry Overview - The report focuses on the U.S. economy, specifically consumer confidence and labor market conditions as indicated by the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index [1][4]. Key Points 1. **Consumer Confidence Index**: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 97.2 in July from an upwardly revised 95.2, driven by an increase in the expectations sub-index, which went up to 74.4 from 69.9 [3][4]. 2. **Consumer Sentiment Improvement**: Consumer sentiment has shown improvement from recent lows, with inflation expectations decreasing, which has positively influenced business and income expectations for the next six months [4][5]. 3. **Cautious Consumer Behavior**: Despite the improvement, confidence indices remain below the levels at the beginning of the year and pre-pandemic levels, suggesting that consumers may continue to be cautious in their spending decisions [4][5]. 4. **Labor Market Differential**: The labor market differential, which measures the difference between respondents saying jobs are hard to get versus those saying jobs are plentiful, has been on a downward trend, indicating a loosening labor market. A larger share of respondents reported that jobs are hard to get in July, supporting forecasts for an increase in the unemployment rate [5][6]. 5. **Spending Growth**: Hard spending data indicates that consumer spending growth is slowing compared to last year, and this trend may continue [4][5]. Additional Insights - **Inflation Expectations**: The decline in inflation expectations has been a significant factor in improving business and income outlooks, although the overall consumer confidence remains cautious [4][5]. - **Unemployment Rate Forecast**: The report supports a forecast for an increasing unemployment rate due to the rising number of respondents indicating difficulty in finding jobs [5][6]. This summary encapsulates the essential findings and insights from the Conference Board report, highlighting the current state of consumer confidence and labor market conditions in the U.S. economy.

LINE ANNOUNCER: THIS IS "BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK DAILY." WITH INSIGHT ON THE PEOPLE, COMPANIES, AND TRENDS SHAPING TODAY'S COMPLEX ECONOMY, PLUS BUSINESS AND FINANCE AND TECH NEWS AS IT HAPPENS. "BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK DAILY" WITH CAROL MASSAR AND TIM STENOVEC LIVE ON BLOOMBERG RADIO, TELEVISION, YOUTUBE, AND BLOOMBERG ORIGINALS. TIM: GOOD AFTERNOON.LIVE ON BLOOMBERG TV, RADIO, YOUTUBE, AND BLOOMBERG ORIGINALS. I AM TIM STENOVEC. THAT IS SONALI BASAK IN FOR CAROL MASSAR.IT IS GOOD TO HAVE YOU HERE. WELCOME. ...

Consumer Sentiment - University of Michigan consumer sentiment index reached 61.8 in July, a five-month high [1] - The index is still 16% below December 2024 levels [1] Inflation Expectations - Year-ahead inflation expectations decreased sharply from 5% to 4.4%, the lowest in 2025 [1] - Long-run inflation expectations declined to 3.6% [1]

Market Trends - Declining inflation expectations are positioning South African government bonds for further gains [1] - The rally has already driven benchmark yields to five-year lows [1]

Inflation Expectations - South African inflation expectations have fallen to an almost four-year low [1] Monetary Policy - This provides policymakers with another reason to press ahead with their easing cycle [1]

Inflation & Monetary Policy - Central banks have done a good job taming the great inflation of 2022 [1] - The primary concern should be the inflation trajectory, as it dictates the direction of interest rates [3][4] - Current policy is broadly in line with a neutral stance, with analysts suggesting a 7% nominal rate indicates neutral territory [14][15] - Uncertainty about the inflation trajectory persists due to past volatility [15] Inflation Target & Policy Revision - There's an opportunity for "opportunistic disinflation," using a low inflation environment to anchor inflation expectations [5][11] - The current inflation target range is considered too wide and high compared to peers, necessitating a revision [10] - The South African Reserve Bank is undergoing a review, with recommendations to lower the inflation target to 2-3% [6][8] - Lowering the inflation target could lead to lower nominal interest rates [14] Risks & Communication - Geopolitical shocks and policy decisions (tariffs) can impact the economic outlook [2] - Scenarios are useful for policymakers to communicate potential risks and future trajectories, but require careful communication to avoid public misinterpretation [16][17]