Group 1 - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that President Trump has one more interview to conduct before naming the next leader of the Federal Reserve, with Rick Rieder expected to be interviewed soon [1] - Trump has narrowed his shortlist for the Fed chair to four candidates: Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, and Rick Rieder [2] - The appointment of the new Fed chair comes at a time when high living costs are challenging Trump's economic agenda, as the Federal Reserve plays a crucial role in setting borrowing costs and influencing inflation [4] Group 2 - Kevin Hassett, currently serving as Trump's top economic adviser and director of the National Economic Council, has been a loyal defender of the administration's economic policies [5] - Kevin Warsh, a former Morgan Stanley banker, has been critical of the current Fed leadership and is positioning himself as a potential replacement for Jerome Powell [7] - Christopher Waller, a Federal Reserve Governor, has called for rate cuts, aligning with some of Trump's demands, and is recognized as the academic veteran among the candidates [8] Group 3 - Jerome Powell, appointed by Trump in 2017, is expected to complete his term in May 2026, and Trump is anticipated to announce his decision regarding the new Fed chair by the end of the month [10]

Bloomberg Egypt’s central bank made its fifth interest-rate cut of the year, after a surprise slowdown in inflation gave authorities scope to resume an easing cycle. The regulator reduced its benchmark deposit rate by 100 basis points to 20% and the lending rate by the same amount to 21%, it said Thursday in a statement on its Facebook page. Most Read from Bloomberg Of five economists in a Bloomberg survey, only two predicted the cut. The others expected an extension of November’s rate pause. The Nor ...

A view of London’s financial district. - Chris J. Ratcliffe/Bloomberg News The Bank of England cut its key interest rate Thursday while the European Central Bank held steady, as a period of more stable borrowing costs sets in across the continent. Why the BOE cut The U.K.’s central bank reduced its key rate to a near three-year low of 3.75% from 4%, resuming a series of cuts that stretch back to August 2024 after a pause in November. Most Read from The Wall Street Journal The BOE indicated that borrow ...

Al Drago / Bloomberg via Getty Images Federal Reserve policy committee members, including Chair Jerome Powell, have been waiting for more up-to-date data on the labor market. Key Takeaways The uptick in unemployment in November shows that the Federal Reserve was justified in cutting interest rates earlier in the year, economists said. The Fed is expected to pause its rate-cutting campaign in January to assess the impact of cuts so far, but the poor jobs report kept a January cut on the table. The Fed ...

Kevin Hassett's candidacy for the Federal Reserve chair, once seen by the market as almost a sure thing, has received some pushback by high-level people who have the ear of President Donald Trump, according to sources familiar with the matter.There's concern that the National Economic Council director is too close to the president, the sources said, something that ironically made him the frontrunner to replace current chair Jerome Powell in the first place. The pushback could help explain why interviews wit ...

Amid the The big breakthrough took place in 1951. For decades before then, the Fed functioned, to a large extent, as an adjunct of the Treasury and the After major political battles culminated in a March 1951 agreement, now known as the Treasury-Fed accord, the Fed ensured that it would no longer be required to do the bidding of the Treasury and White House, but would operate according to its own lights, as an independent central bank. It could raise short-term interest rates to curb inflation if it deem ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is experiencing significant divisions among its officials regarding future interest rate cuts, with projections indicating only one cut in 2026, reflecting a wide range of individual forecasts from policymakers [1][10] - A notable minority of seven Fed officials oppose cutting rates in 2026, while eight anticipate at most two cuts next year, and four are considering more aggressive actions [2][10] - The upcoming economic data will be crucial in determining whether a consensus can be reached or if divisions will deepen [3] Economic Outlook - The Fed's median forecasts predict real GDP growth of 2.3% in 2026, an increase from the previous forecast of 1.8% in September, despite a slower anticipated growth of 1.7% for 2025 [7][10] - Fed officials expect the unemployment rate to rise to 4.5% by year-end but project it will decrease back to 4.4% by the end of 2026 [11] - Inflation is expected to decline towards the Fed's 2% target, with forecasts suggesting a deceleration to 2.5% in 2026, slightly better than the previous estimate of 2.6% [12][11] Policy Dynamics - The next Fed chair will face challenges in unifying a committee with a strong hawkish presence, as the current chair's term ends in May [4][6] - President Trump has expressed a desire for lower interest rates, which may influence the selection of the next Fed chair [5][6] - Analysts predict that while the Fed may pause rate cuts in January, further reductions are likely later in the year, with expectations of a 25-basis-point cut in March and June [16][17]

Key Takeaways Markets Stayed Flat Ahead of Tomorrow's FOMC Rate CutJOLTS Data Jumped in the Delayed October ReportCasey's & Cracker Barrel Report Earnings After the CloseTuesday, December 9, 2025Market indexes kept mostly flat for the trading session today, with the blue-chip Dow sliding into the red mid-day and staying there, while the small-cap Russell 2000 looked headed for a new record all-time closing high before petering out in the final trading minutes. The Dow shed -178 points, -0.37%, the S&P 500 w ...

Core Insights - Mortgage rates have increased, with the national average 30-year fixed refinance rate rising to approximately 6.75% to 6.77%, ending a brief period of stability and indicating renewed pressure for homeowners looking to refinance [1][23] - The 15-year fixed refinance rate has climbed to 5.73%, while the 5-year ARM refinance rate has jumped to 7.53%, reflecting a broader trend of rising rates influenced by U.S. Treasury yields [8][9] - Historical context shows that current rates, while higher than pandemic-era lows below 3%, are comparable to averages from the 1990s, suggesting refinancing opportunities for homeowners with higher legacy rates [3][12] Mortgage Rate Trends - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting on December 9-10 is being closely monitored for potential rate cuts, which could influence mortgage rates, although past cuts have not always led to immediate decreases [2][11] - Experts forecast that mortgage rates will likely stabilize in the low- to mid-6% range through early 2026, depending on inflation control efforts and economic growth prospects [7][15] - Small fluctuations in rates can have significant impacts on monthly payments, particularly for large loans, making it essential for homeowners to stay informed and review their refinancing options regularly [10][19] Refinancing Options - The 30-year fixed refinance remains the most popular option, providing stability and predictable payments, while the 15-year fixed offers lower rates but higher monthly payments, and the 5-year ARM starts lower but may increase later [5][22] - Homeowners should consider the costs associated with refinancing, including appraisal fees, origination fees, and title insurance, which can offset potential savings [6][23] - It is crucial for homeowners to calculate their break-even points and shop multiple lenders, as rate improvements may lag behind policy shifts [21][23] Future Projections - If inflation cools and the Federal Reserve signals further rate cuts, refinance rates could potentially drop below 6%, making refinancing more attractive for loans above 7% [20][24] - Key scenarios suggest that multiple cuts amid controlled inflation could lower 30-year refinance rates to 6.0-6.25% by mid-2026, resulting in significant monthly savings for homeowners [21][24] - Homeowners are advised to monitor Fed meetings and Treasury yields closely, as these factors will heavily influence future mortgage rate movements [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is leaning towards a potential interest rate cut in December, influenced by comments from John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, aimed at supporting the job market [2][8]. Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has increased significantly, with financial markets now pricing in a 73% chance, up from 39% the previous day [2]. - Williams indicated there is "room for a further adjustment in the near term" to the federal funds rate, which affects various debt interest rates [5]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Lower interest rates could stimulate the economy at a crucial time when the job market is showing signs of weakness, but they may also lead to increased inflation, necessitating future rate hikes [4]. - The Federal Reserve's policy committee is divided on whether to cut rates to support the job market or maintain higher rates to combat inflation, which has exceeded the 2% target for over four years [3][8].