Austan Goolsbee, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, speaks to the Economic Club of New York in New York City, U.S., April 10, 2025.Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said Tuesday that interest rate cuts aren't appropriate until there's more evidence that inflation is on its way down.With recent indicators showing that inflation well off its highs but still above the Fed's 2% target, Goolsbee noted that policymakers "have been burned by assuming transitory inflation" in ...

By Michael S. Derby Feb 23 (Reuters) - The underlying level of inflation heated up in December as measured by a New York Federal Reserve gauge, suggesting further challenges in getting overall price pressures ‌back to the U.S. central bank's 2% target. The regional Fed bank said its Multivariate Core Trend inflation ‌reading ticked up to 2.8% in December from 2.4% in the prior month, boosted by pressures in prices for services outside of housing ​and by goods costs. Fed officials are expecting price p ...

Market Overview - Latin American equity markets are experiencing significant inflows, marking the strongest start to the year since 1991, with the MSCI EM Latin America Index reaching an eleven-year high and increasing over 20% in 2026 [1][17] - Investors are recalibrating their focus on Latin America ahead of presidential elections in Brazil and Colombia, anticipating potential local policy shifts and lower interest rates [1][17] Investment Trends - The buying spree is evident in US-listed exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with BlackRock's iShares Latin America 40 ETF attracting over $1 billion in January, raising total assets to approximately $4.3 billion [6][17] - The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) saw its strongest monthly inflows in over a decade in January, becoming a preferred tool for exposure to Brazilian equities [7][17] Political Landscape - In Brazil, the potential for a political shift in the upcoming October election is influencing investment decisions, with some investors betting on the opposition's victory over President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva [8][17] - In Colombia, political divisions among candidates are creating uncertainty ahead of the May presidential election, with the leading leftist contender raising concerns about asset price stability [12][17] Foreign vs. Local Investment - Foreign investors are increasingly purchasing directly in local markets, with January seeing the highest foreign buying in at least four years across Brazilian, Mexican, and Colombian markets [13][17] - Local investors remain cautious due to political uncertainties, contrasting with foreign investors who are more focused on potential returns [14][17] Central Bank Policies - Expectations are building for Brazil's central bank to lower the benchmark Selic rate from 15%, its highest in nearly two decades, starting in March [15][17] - In Mexico, the central bank maintained its benchmark interest rate at 7%, pausing an easing cycle that began nearly two years ago [15][17] Overall Sentiment - The overall sentiment towards Latin America remains positive, driven by potential rate cuts, favorable political changes, and commodity tailwinds [16][17]

Economic Growth and Inflation - Real GDP growth in the fourth quarter was 1.4%, significantly below the consensus estimate of 2.5%, primarily impacted by a government shutdown [2][8] - The Fed's preferred inflation gauge rose to 3% year-over-year in December, up from 2.8% in November, indicating potential stagnation in progress towards the 2% target [2][8] Federal Reserve's Policy Outlook - The higher inflation reading justifies the Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate cuts for the time being, with expectations of two potential rate cuts by year-end if inflation trends downward [3][4] - Fed officials are cautious about further rate cuts until inflation returns to target levels, despite the economy showing resilience in certain sectors [4][7] Consumer and Business Spending Trends - Consumer spending has been robust, but it is increasingly reliant on reduced savings rather than significant wage increases, raising concerns about sustainability [10] - Business investment, particularly in technology, continues to grow, indicating a divergence between tech-related sectors and the broader economy [9][10] Future Economic Projections - Analysts anticipate that inflation will decline in 2026, supported by softening rental prices and diminishing tariff pressures, which could lead to a more favorable economic environment [5][8] - Despite some optimism, there are concerns that the economy's momentum may wane this year, particularly in residential investment, which fell by 1.5% [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England is urged to cut interest rates aggressively to stimulate economic growth and address rising unemployment, particularly among young people [2][3][4]. Economic Conditions - The UK's unemployment rate has reached a five-year high of 5.2%, with youth unemployment surpassing that of Greece for the first time [4]. - Inflation is projected to fall to the Bank's target of 2% within months, suggesting a potential window for rate cuts [5]. Recommendations from IPPR - The IPPR recommends that the Bank of England should loosen monetary policy aggressively to enhance growth and wages [3][6]. - Joseph Evans from IPPR emphasizes that once inflation hits 2%, the Bank should expedite rate cuts to avoid prolonged economic stagnation [6]. - The current expectation is for one or two 0.25 percentage point cuts this year, but this approach may risk keeping the economy too cold for too long [6][7]. Potential Impact of Rate Cuts - Lowering interest rates could lead to higher pay for lower-paid workers, stimulate economic growth, and reduce reliance on benefits [7]. - Carsten Jung from IPPR argues that the Bank should aim to run the economy slightly hot, as evidenced by post-pandemic experiences in the US, which could benefit future growth in the UK [8]. Market Expectations - Traders are anticipating two rate cuts this year, with expectations that the base rate will end the year at 3% [9].

Group 1 - Yields on US government debt are near their lowest levels in months due to haven demand amid stock-market volatility and a tame January inflation reading, suggesting investor expectations for potential rate cuts later this year if labor-market weakness is observed [1][9] - Invesco, Carmignac, and BNP Paribas do not share the outlook of further rate cuts, citing strong economic data, including January job growth exceeding projections and significant corporate investments in artificial intelligence [2][9] - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes indicate a cautious stance on rate cuts, with some policymakers suggesting that rate hikes may be necessary if inflation remains above the 2% target [2][9] Group 2 - Macro strategists at TS Lombard recommend betting on fewer rate reductions in the second half of 2026, while Invesco's fixed-income chief strategist anticipates one rate cut this year, though the likelihood of no cuts is increasing due to robust economic data [3][6] - Carmignac's co-head of fixed income, Guillaume Rigeade, is short US Treasuries and predicts the 10-year yield could rise to 4.5% in the coming months, up from approximately 4.1% [7][9] - Recent economic data presents mixed signals, with a headline annual consumer inflation figure of 2.4% indicating cooling, yet services prices have accelerated, creating a complex environment for bond investors [8][9]

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 267.50 points (-0.5386%) at 49,395.16, with Dow Futures also declining by 300.00 points (-0.6034%) to 49,422.00, indicating a cautious market sentiment [1] - The decline was primarily driven by a hawkish shift in monetary policy expectations following a higher-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) report, raising concerns about delayed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Sector Performance - The financial sector experienced significant volatility, with Goldman Sachs leading the decline, falling 2.92% to $906.73. Other major financial institutions like American Express and JPMorgan Chase also saw declines of 2.18% to $338.65 and 1.14% to $305.32, respectively [2] - Technology stocks faced pressure as well, with IBM down 2.19% to $255.20, while Apple and Nvidia slipped 1.01% and 0.91%, respectively. Boeing and Sherwin-Williams both decreased by 2.10% amid concerns over industrial growth [2] Defensive Stocks - Investors shifted towards defensive equities to mitigate macroeconomic uncertainty, with Verizon emerging as the top performer, gaining 1.72% to finish at $48.84 [3] - Consumer staples and healthcare sectors saw modest inflows, with Procter & Gamble rising 0.89% to $158.16 and McDonald's advancing 0.86% to $330.74. Other gainers included Cisco Systems, up 0.61% to $78.67, and Chevron, which climbed 0.57% to $184.96 [3] - Caterpillar managed a 0.50% increase, closing at $755.87, while Johnson & Johnson also saw slight gains [3]

On February 04, 2026, TrueWealth Financial Partners disclosed a new position in First Trust Managed Municipal ETF (NASDAQ:FMB), making it one of the firm’s top holdings as reported in its 13F for the fourth quarter. What happened According to a SEC filing dated February 04, 2026, TrueWealth Financial Partners purchased 248,749 shares. The estimated transaction value, based on the average trading pricing during the quarter, was $12.7 million. This made FMB a top position in the fund, representing 11% of r ...

For much of the last seven years, the bulls have been in firm control on Wall Street. The iconic S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) has gained at least 16% in all but one year since 2019. Meanwhile, the ageless Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) just eclipsed 50,000 for the first time in its nearly 130-year history, and the technology-driven Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) has consistently delivered outsize returns. There has been no shortage of catalysts fueling this upside, including the evolu ...

Core Viewpoint - MFA Financial is optimistic about its future earnings and return on equity, driven by a supportive interest rate environment and strategic initiatives to enhance profitability [4][7]. Policy and Market Environment - A focus on housing affordability in Washington is expected to support mortgage markets, with an initiative for GSEs to purchase $200 billion of agency MBS and anticipated rate cuts in 2026 [1]. - Treasury yields have declined significantly, with the 2-year yield down 77 basis points and the 10-year yield down 39 basis points for the year, leading to a steeper yield curve [2]. Financial Performance - The Bloomberg US Aggregate Index rose 7.3% in 2025 after three consecutive annual declines, indicating a recovery in fixed income markets [3]. - MFA's GAAP book value was $13.20 and economic book value was $13.75 at year-end, with Q4 GAAP EPS at $0.42 and distributable earnings at $0.27 per share [5][8]. Earnings and Strategic Actions - MFA executed several strategic actions to boost earnings, including deploying over $100 million of excess cash, resolving over $150 million of delinquent loans, and reducing G&A expenses to $119.4 million for 2025 [6][13]. - The company acquired nearly $2 billion of residential mortgage assets in Q4, with a focus on agency and non-QM loans [14][19]. Portfolio and Securitization - The agency portfolio grew over 50% during the quarter to $3.3 billion, primarily through purchases made before spreads tightened [14]. - MFA issued its 21st non-QM securitization in December, selling $424 million of bonds at an average cost of 5.26%, and plans to call and reissue certain securitizations to unlock capital [16]. Growth Initiatives - Lima One is identified as a key growth driver, with plans to expand its sales team and relaunch multifamily lending in 2026 [17]. - The company sold $45 million of longer-duration rental loans to third-party investors, generating $1.4 million in gain-on-sale income [18]. Future Outlook - Management expects distributable earnings to align with the common dividend in the latter half of 2026, with an estimated 3% increase in economic book value since year-end [21].