We are going to see which economists can critically think in the coming months.There is a good chance job growth plateaus, which is historically a negative sign, but earnings continue accelerating.The elementary analysis will be “the economy is in trouble,” but the smart people will realize AI is making companies much more efficient.They are creating more earnings with fewer employees.Seismic shift in how economic data will need to be viewed. Most economists won’t be able to make the adjustment. ...

Wall Street economists disagree on whether Trump's immigration crackdown is the reason for a sharp slowdown in US job growth https://t.co/RmTynQTIuD ...

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ data does more than capture monthly job growth and inflation pressures. It plays a crucial role in Americans’ financial lives. https://t.co/1gSTEUwJjl ...

From @WSJopinion: The reality of slowing job growth is clear to anyone paying attention, no matter the official statistics. Trump’s data denial is one more reason fewer Americans will trust the government. https://t.co/YcV8AOfqBX ...

Economic Data Accuracy - The US economy's unpredictability is concerning given its size and sophistication [1] - BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) data revisions show a downgrade in actual job growth [1] - The US economy created approximately 818,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months leading up to March 2024 [1] - Inaccurate employment data leads to inaccurate GDP assessments [2] - Bad data is a fixable problem that requires prioritization and effort [3] Market Implications - Sophisticated capital markets can react to real-time data and make informed decisions [3] - The combination of inaccurate employment and GDP data could be problematic for the economy [2] Data Collection & Reporting - There is a need to prioritize fixing the data collection and reporting systems [3] - Existing systems and SAS tools should be leveraged to improve the accuracy of employment data [3]

And we're just hearing from President Trump via Truth Social that he is firing the commissioner of labor statistics. He says effective immediately. This of course coming after the jobs report this morning showed lower than expected job growth for the previous month as well as major downward revisions for the past two.So the president focusing on that those revisions in particular in this truth social post saying he's firing Dr. . Erica McIntyre for the commissioner of labor statistics because she was a Bide ...

President Donald Trump says he is directing officials to fire the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, hours after a report showed US job growth cooled sharply. Listen to that and the latest stories on Bloomberg News Now. https://t.co/3TDYNLb8Wj ...

Folks, let's go down to Washington DC. Megan Cassella, pretty big headline happening right now. >> Absolutely, Brian.We're just hearing from President Trump via Truth Social that he is firing the Commissioner of Labor Statistics. He says effective immediately. This, of course, coming after the jobs report this morning showed lower than expected job growth for the previous month as well as major downward revisions for the past two.So the president focusing on that those revisions in particular in this truth ...

Labor Market & Economic Outlook - US labor market shows warning signs with payrolls tumbling and unemployment rate rising, indicating a deceleration in job gains [1][2] - Concerns mount over a complicated mix for the Federal Reserve to deal with, leading to expectations of potential rate cuts in September and December [2][3] - Slowing services wages suggest a potential slowdown in consumption and the overall economy, justifying lower interest rates even without a formal recession [19] - The economy is structurally sound, but current policy may be suboptimal, with rates disproportionately hurting lower-income households as housing and labor markets slow [9][10] Interest Rate & Monetary Policy - Fed rate cut bets for September have reached nearly 90%, a significant increase from 45% prior to jobs data, with two rate cuts priced in for the year [6] - The Cleveland Fed President acknowledges a tricky time for monetary policy makers due to conflicting mandates, requiring careful data analysis and business conversations [7][8] - The market anticipates bull steepening as the economy slows and the Fed cuts rates, potentially spurring inflation or growth, leading to a V-shaped recovery [12] - Neutral rate is difficult to determine, potentially higher than expected due to shifts in household and business debt structures, allowing for higher interest rates with a robust economy [17][18] Bond Market & Credit Issuance - US high-grade weekly volume reached $12 million, driven by foreign bank sales, while July volume was $81 billion, the lightest month for supply this year [29] - US high-yield July volumes exceeded $35 billion, marking the second busiest month since September 2021 and the busiest since at least 2006 [30] - Leveraged loan launches in July set a record, reaching over $222 billion, the fourth time in 14 months an all-time record has been broken [30] - Private sector holds $225 trillion in cash, exceeding marketable Treasury debt, with only $29 trillion in high-quality bonds, creating a transcendent influence on the market [26][27]

President Donald Trump said he was directing officials to fire Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, hours after a report showed US job growth cooling sharply over the last three months https://t.co/Ecl1sr4091 ...