Core Insights - U.S. coal carloads increased by 10,500 carloads, or 4.7%, in January 2026 compared to January 2025, marking the largest monthly percentage gain since May 2025, with year-over-year volumes rising in 8 of the last 11 months [1] - The AAR Freight Rail Index rose by 3.1% in January 2026 over December 2025, driven by an increase in carload traffic [2] - Total U.S. carloads rose by 4.4% in January 2026 compared to January 2025, with 12 of the 20 major AAR-tracked carload categories showing gains, particularly in grain, coal, and industrial-related products [3] Rail Operations and Economic Factors - A severe winter storm disrupted rail operations in the last week of January, yet U.S. rail volumes remained resilient [4] - The labor market is cooling but continues to generate income growth, with inflation easing enough to support real purchasing power, contributing to consumer spending [5] - Consumer confidence has fallen to a near 12-year low, but consumer spending has remained stable, indicating households are overcoming sentiment concerns [7] Freight Demand and Manufacturing Outlook - Carloads excluding coal rose by 4.3% in January 2026, marking the 21st year-over-year gain in the past 24 months, although gains have been modest due to sluggish industrial activity [9] - U.S. grain carloads averaged 24,355 per week in January 2026, up 17.0% over January 2025, driven by higher grain exports [10][11] - Chemical carloads increased by 2.4% in January 2026, signaling a solid start for the sector, which is often an early indicator of manufacturing activity [12] Steel and Metal Products - U.S. carloads of primary metal products fell by 2.5% in January, while iron and steel scrap surged by 17.8%, reflecting shifts in steelmaking practices [14][15] - The divergence between growing scrap carloads and declining metallic ore carloads indicates a transition towards electric-arc furnaces in domestic steel production [15] Railcar Storage and Economic Indicators - As of February 1, 356,000 railcars, or 21.8% of the North American fleet, were in storage, indicating a slow increase since mid-2025 [17] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.5%–3.75%, suggesting a cautious approach to monetary policy amid solid economic growth and stabilizing labor market conditions [18] Manufacturing and Services Sector - The Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.6% in January, indicating potential growth, although caution is advised as January often reflects post-holiday restocking [19][20] - The ISM's Services PMI matched its highest level in a year at 53.8%, supporting rail demand indirectly by sustaining incomes and consumption [23] Currency and Trade Implications - The U.S. dollar has weakened against major currencies, which could provide a modest tailwind for U.S. exports, including grain and coal, while making imports more expensive [24][25] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market shows mixed signals, with a stable quits rate and job openings at a low, suggesting limited near-term acceleration in freight demand [26][27] Future Outlook - The goods economy appears influenced by sector-specific forces rather than a single macroeconomic narrative, with rail volumes likely responding unevenly to these mixed demand signals [28]

Group 1 - The Manufacturing PMI reported a figure of 52.6, significantly higher than the expected 48.5, indicating stronger-than-anticipated growth in the manufacturing sector [2][3] - The positive PMI results have shifted focus back to traditional and defensive sectors among equity investors, suggesting a potential shift in investment strategies [3] - Following a volatile January, traders are actively seeking to identify the dominant trend in the market [3]

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PMI Report on China Manufacturing China's manufacturing PMI drops to 49.3 in January, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector amid seasonal factors China Manufacturing PMI, seasonally adjusted China Manufacturing at a Glance – January 2026 | | Seasonally | Index Compared with the | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Index | Adjusted Index | Previous Month | Direction | | PMI | 49.3 | Lower ▼ | Contracting | | Output | 50.6 | Lower ▼ | Expanding | | New Orders | 49.2 | Lower ▼ | Contracting | | New E ...

U.S. stocks traded higher midway through trading, with the Nasdaq Composite gaining more than 150 points on Monday.The Dow traded up 0.99% to 49,374.44 while the NASDAQ gained 0.74% to 23,634.78. The S&P 500 also rose, gaining, 0.65% to 6,984.27.Check This Out: How To Earn $500 A Month From Goldman Sachs Stock Ahead Of Q4 EarningsLeading and Lagging SectorsInformation technology shares gained by 0.8% on Monday.In trading on Monday, energy stocks fell by 1.6%.Top HeadlineThe ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview: China Economic Indicators - The NBS manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3 in January from 50.1 in December, while the non-manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4 from 50.2, both below market expectations [1][2] - This decline reflects a trend observed in previous years, where stronger readings occur at quarter-end months, followed by decreases in the subsequent month [5] Fiscal Situation - In 2025, China's total revenues were RMB 27.3 trillion, a decline of 2.9% from 2024, while expenditures rose to RMB 40.0 trillion, an increase of 3.7% from 2024 [2] - Policymakers were overly optimistic about the property market, with actual revenue from government-managed funds showing a 7% decline compared to expectations [2] - The estimated augmented fiscal deficit for 2025 was 11.0% of GDP, projected to widen to 12.0% in 2026 [2] Investor Sentiment - Improved investor sentiment was noted during the annual macro conference in Hong Kong, with growth expectations shifting from 3-4% to 4-5% for the next five years [6][7] - Expectations for equity market performance and the RMB exchange rate have also improved, although sentiment regarding prices remains weak, with 42% of respondents expecting PPI inflation to turn positive in 2028 or later [6] Price Indices - Both input and output price sub-indices increased significantly, indicating potential inflationary pressures in the manufacturing sector [1] Long-term Outlook - The modal response for annual average growth in China over the next five years has shifted positively, reflecting a more optimistic outlook among investors [8] Additional Insights - The decline in manufacturing PMIs is consistent with residual seasonality observed over the past year, indicating cyclical patterns in economic activity [5] - The mixed December activity data and the alignment of Q4 GDP with expectations suggest a complex economic landscape that requires careful monitoring [11] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the economic indicators, fiscal situation, investor sentiment, and long-term outlook for China.

A study of affluent Chinese released this month by consulting firm Oliver Wyman found that 22% of respondents were negative about the economy when surveyed in May. It just exceeds the 21% seen in October 2022, just before Beijing announced plans to ease its stringent zero-Covid policy.Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Monday as investors assessed private data for China's factory activity in January, while gold extended losses from Friday.China's factory activity gathered speed in January, according to a pri ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that China's manufacturing market demand has tightened in January, but production remains in an expansionary phase, with ongoing optimization of the industrial structure [1] - In January, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for China was reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The equipment manufacturing PMI stood at 50.1%, while the high-tech manufacturing PMI was at 52%, indicating stable development in these sectors and continued optimization of the manufacturing industry structure [1] Group 2 - The service sector is reported to be operating relatively steadily, with business expectations continuing to improve [1]

RT Ignas | DeFi (@DefiIgnas)BTC price prediction based on Manufacturing PMI is dumb:PMI stayed below 50 in 2023 and early 2024, yet BTC pumped from $16k to $73kIf you waited for PMI to reach 50, you would've missed 350% pumpAlso, US Economy is ~80% services, and less than 15% manufacturing GDP (Yes, I gemini'ed it)Claiming Bitcoin is driven by liquidity, institutional adoption (now ETFs), gold, and fiscal dominance makes sense.Manufacturing doesn't ...

Group 1: Energy Sector - WTI crude oil prices increased by more than +2% to a 1-week high, positively impacting energy producers due to President Trump's renewed military threats against Iran [1] - The rise in crude prices was also influenced by reports of the US threatening to limit dollar supply for Iraqi oil sales, pressuring Iraq's politicians to form a government excluding Iran-backed groups [1] Group 2: Precious Metals and Mining Stocks - Gold, silver, and platinum prices reached new record highs, driven by a weaker dollar and geopolitical risks, leading to a boost in mining stocks [2] - Barrick Mining closed up more than +3%, while Newmont Mining and Freeport-McMoRan both closed up more than +2% [16] Group 3: Consumer Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for January was revised upward by +2.4 to a 5-month high of 56.4, exceeding expectations [3][4] - The S&P manufacturing PMI for January rose by +0.1 to 51.9, slightly below expectations [3] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - The broader market saw recovery after early losses, supported by the performance of the Magnificent Seven technology stocks, with Microsoft and Amazon closing up more than +3% and +2% respectively [5][15] - The S&P 500 Index closed up +0.03%, while the Dow Jones closed down -0.58% and the Nasdaq 100 closed up +0.34% [6] Group 5: Earnings Reports and Forecasts - Q4 earnings season began positively, with 81% of the 40 S&P 500 companies that reported beating expectations, and S&P earnings growth projected to increase by +8.4% in Q4 [8] - Capital One Financial Corp reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $3.86, below the consensus of $4.15, leading to a decline of more than -7% in its stock [22]