For example, when the Federal Reserve engages in quantitative easing, as it did during the pandemic, it buys long-term assets like Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS), increasing bond demand and pushing bond prices up and long-term yields down, including mortgage rates. The Fed's MBS purchases put additional downward pressure on mortgage rates in 2020 and 2021. Conversely, during quantitative tightening since 2022, the Fed has been letting MBS assets roll off its balance sheet without replacing ...

The mainstream media will try to trick you about Bitcoin. They will make you believe that this crypto bloodbath will never end when in fact it will end. People are fearful.Last time we saw levels this fearful was actually near the end of the 2022 bare market when FTX was collapsing. I've lived through multiple bare markets, multiple bull markets. You buy when there's blood in the streets, when people are fearful. You sell when people are greedy. people are euphoric.But of course, the other thing that I real ...

The party might just be getting started for gold and other precious metals. - Getty Images He’s bullish on something — and less bearish on U.S. stocks than you’d imagine. Albert Edwards, the notoriously bearish global strategist from Societe Generale, is bullish on precious metals and thinks that, far from resembling a classic investment bubble, the party might just be getting started. Most Read from MarketWatch In his weekly strategy note published Wednesday, Edwards is especially focused on gold and ...

Core Insights - Major North American gold miners have reached record highs due to the Federal Reserve's third consecutive interest-rate cut, fueling a significant rally in precious metals [1][6] - Newmont Corp. and Barrick Mining Corp. have seen substantial year-to-date gains of 168% and 180%, respectively, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF rising 155% [1][2] - Gold and silver prices have surged, with gold reaching $2,230 per ounce (up 62% year-to-date) and silver at $64 (up 119% year-to-date), marking their strongest annual performance since the late 1970s [3] Company Performance - Newmont Corp. experienced a 6.1% increase in stock price, achieving all-time highs and its strongest single-day performance since July [1] - Barrick Mining Corp. rose by 4%, marking its third consecutive session of gains and also reaching new records [2] Industry Trends - The broader precious metals market is experiencing a powerful rally, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF setting new records [2] - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts and plans for technical purchases of Treasury bills indicate a supportive macroeconomic environment for precious metals [6][7] Expert Opinions - Analysts suggest that the current rally in gold prices is part of long-term cycles driven by macroeconomic imbalances, indicating that the cycle may still be in its early stages [8][9] - Continued central bank demand and the adoption of gold in portfolio allocations are reinforcing the recovery in gold prices [10]

Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates and the US economy will be clarified through comments from Jerome Powell and the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) [2][4] - Key figures to watch include Jerome Powell, Steven Myron, Michelle Bowman, and Christopher Waller, with a focus on potential dissenters within the FOMC [3][4] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut, with discussions around the possibility of starting quantitative easing following the end of quantitative tightening [5][6] Earnings Reports - Significant earnings reports are expected from major companies such as Adobe, Oracle, Broadcom, Costco, and Lululemon on Wednesday and Thursday [3][7] - Broadcom is highlighted as a key player in the AI sector, with expectations of strong performance despite Nvidia's recent post-earnings decline [7][8] - Lululemon and Costco's earnings will provide insights into the US consumer market [8] Netflix and Warner Brothers Merger - Netflix has won the bid to move forward with the Warner Brothers acquisition, but the deal is expected to face extensive scrutiny and could take a long time to finalize [10][11] - Paramount Sky has launched a $30 all-cash tender offer for Warner Brothers, raising the stakes in the bidding war [12][13] - The enterprise value of Warner Brothers has escalated to approximately $108.4 billion, indicating a competitive environment for the asset [14][16]

Core Insights - Bitcoin experienced a significant decline, dropping below $90,000 and erasing its year-to-date gains, with El Salvador being the only country to continue purchasing Bitcoin during this downturn [1][2] - El Salvador has accumulated a total of 6,380.18 BTC, valued at approximately $630 million, and has been buying 1 BTC per day [2] - Despite the volatility, El Salvador's holdings reflect a floating profit of $317 million, returning to levels last seen in the spring [3] Market Dynamics - Bitcoin has fallen over 26% from its all-time high of $126,000, with a sell-off triggered by the liquidation of $19 billion in leveraged long positions [4] - Analysts from Bernstein suggest that the current pullback aligns with historical patterns following Bitcoin's halving, but they do not foresee a severe drawdown of 60-70% [5] - The market environment does not appear to be at a cycle peak, according to analyst Gautam Chhugani [5] Institutional Factors - There is a growing trend of ETF ownership among traditional investors and continued corporate treasury adoption, notably by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) [8] - Support from the Trump administration for Bitcoin and the Clarity Act may also influence market dynamics [8] Future Outlook - Analysts from 10X Research indicate that demand has stalled, and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has created fragile conditions, yet they believe the four-year cycle should not be overlooked [9] - The potential for a bull run in Q4 2026 is being discussed, although current panic selling persists [9]

Jordan Bardella has controversially suggested that the European Central Bank could use quantitative easing to help manage France’s debt, which stands at nearly 116% of GDP. With a credible five-year growth plan, he says it could be in the common interest https://t.co/qxnnQpkiza ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates has sparked dissension among its members, reflecting potential political influences and raising concerns about the Fed's independence in the face of presidential pressure [2][3][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has lowered its benchmark interest rate to between 3.75% and 4%, marking the second rate cut of the year [6]. - A third rate cut is not guaranteed, and the Fed's policy is not predetermined, indicating potential for further debate among members [2]. - The end of the Fed's balance sheet run-off on December 1 may signal a shift towards liquidity and quantitative easing, aligning with President Trump's economic preferences [2][6]. Group 2: Dissension Among Fed Members - Recent meetings have seen dissent from members, including Stephen Miran, who has called for a half-point rate cut, while others, like Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, advocate for maintaining current rates [4][5]. - The last instance of multiple dissents occurred in 2019, making the current situation notable and raising questions about the political dynamics within the Fed [3][4]. Group 3: Political Influences - President Trump has publicly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell, labeling him "incompetent" and suggesting that future leadership will better reflect his economic vision [6][10]. - The appointment of Miran, a Trump appointee, and the nomination of Kevin Hassett as a potential successor to Powell, highlight concerns regarding the Fed's independence and the influence of political considerations on monetary policy [9][10]. Group 4: Market Implications - The ongoing dissension and potential politicization of the Fed could lead to increased market volatility and cautious behavior from consumers and investors regarding borrowing and investment decisions [7][8]. - The Center for American Progress emphasizes the importance of data-driven decisions for maintaining market stability, warning against the risks of political influence on the Fed's operations [8].

Market Performance and Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve may be shifting towards a dovish stance, hinted by Jerome Powell's comments on ending quantitative tightening, which was earlier than market expectations [2][4] - The current market liquidity, influenced by the Fed's actions, is a significant driver for market performance, alongside the expanding interest in AI stocks [2][9] Technology Sector Dynamics - The technology sector, particularly companies like Micron and AMD, is currently leading the NASDAQ, indicating a broadening market rally beyond just Nvidia and Microsoft [4][12] - There is a concern that the enthusiasm for AI stocks may be overextended, suggesting a potential bubble, although this does not preclude further gains in the near term [12][21] Earnings and Regional Banks - Recent earnings reports from regional banks have raised concerns, but the issues appear to be more related to fraud rather than systemic problems within the banking sector [15][16] - The market's reaction to these earnings suggests a cautious optimism, as there is no immediate indication of a widespread crisis [15][17] Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors are advised to adopt a tactical approach rather than a greedy one, emphasizing the importance of covering positions and using hedging strategies to mitigate risks [18][19] - A healthy market pullback is anticipated, with a potential 30% decline in major AI stocks within the next 15 months, which could present buying opportunities [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - CS Venkatakrishnan, the CEO of Barclays, cautioned against imposing new taxes on the financial sector, arguing that such measures could hinder economic growth and competition [1][2][3] Group 1: Taxation Concerns - Venkatakrishnan warned that taxing the financial sector could "stifle competition" and "stifle growth," emphasizing the need to encourage growth rather than tax it out of existence [3][6] - The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) has proposed a windfall levy on banks, which has raised concerns among industry leaders about its potential negative impact on the sector [3][6] - The IPPR estimates that losses from the Bank of England's quantitative easing program amount to £22 billion annually, advocating for a tax on deposits similar to one introduced in the 1980s [4][6] Group 2: Economic Impact - Venkatakrishnan stated that a windfall tax would lead to reduced hiring and less credit availability in the UK economy, as banks would be compelled to limit lending to businesses [6][7] - Charlie Nunn, CEO of Lloyds, echoed these sentiments, warning that a tax raid could damage the UK's growth ambitions [7] Group 3: Government Position - A Treasury spokesman affirmed the government's pro-business stance, highlighting that the financial services sector is central to their economic growth plans [8] - The government has initiated reforms aimed at enhancing investment and competitiveness in the financial sector, with a goal of making the UK the top destination for financial services firms by 2035 [8]