Federal Reserve governor Stephen Miran dialed back his calls for how deeply the Fed should cut rates this year, telling an interviewer that recent data have reflected a stronger economy than he had expected. ...

Dollar Hovers Near 2-Week High After Fed MinutesCONCLUDED[Stock Market News From Feb. 19, 2026: Dow Falls. Oil Rises on Iran Fears.]Last Updated:---16 hours ago# Dollar Hovers Near 2-Week High After Fed MinutesByRenae Dyer, Dow Jones NewswiresThe dollar was trading near a two-week high as the minutes of the Federal Reserve's meeting last month showed several policymakers were open to potentially raising interest rates if inflation remains elevated."The mere suggestion that the key interest rate could rise a ...

Market Overview - The market is starting February with positive momentum after a choppy January, indicating potential upside ahead for the year [1][2] - The S&P 500 has reported that 33% of its companies have shown positive double-digit earnings growth, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of such growth [3][4] Sector Performance - There is a shift in portfolio positioning away from technology, which has been a major contributor to earnings, towards diversification into financials, healthcare, and energy sectors [4][6] - Financials are expected to lead the market, with an anticipated increase in M&A activity contributing positively to earnings [10][11] Small Cap vs Large Cap - Small-cap stocks are beginning to show positive movement, which is encouraging for investors [7][8] - The Russell 2000 index has increased by nearly 7%, indicating a favorable environment for small-cap companies [6] Housing Market - The housing market is expected to stabilize, with potential improvements in affordability and lower mortgage rates, which could positively impact the sector [12][13] Investment Opportunities - Specific companies highlighted for potential investment include Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley in the financial sector, and Toll Brothers in housing [13][14] - Microsoft is noted as a strong investment opportunity despite recent sell-offs, indicating continued growth potential in technology [14][15] Precious Metals and Bitcoin - Gold and silver are experiencing volatility, but are expected to perform well in 2026; investors are advised to take profits during strength [17][19] - Bitcoin remains uncertain, with a cautious approach recommended for investment in this area [18] Active Management Strategy - Active management is emphasized as a key strategy for navigating market uncertainty and volatility, with a recommendation to maintain liquidity to capitalize on market dips [20][22] - Companies like Disney and Netflix are identified as potential turnaround stories, with opportunities for investment during price corrections [21][24]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller expressed his dissent regarding the central bank's decision to maintain steady interest rates this week, providing his rationale for the disagreement [1] Group 1 - Waller was a finalist for the Fed's top position before President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as chair [1]

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, with a benchmark rate in the 3.50% to 3.75% range, as investors focus on Chair Jerome Powell's guidance amid resilient economic growth and easing inflation pressures [1][2] - Recent US economic data has shown positive surprises, with unemployment at 4.4% and fourth-quarter GDP growth tracking above 5.4%, complicating the case for near-term rate cuts [2][3] - The Fed faces a "tricky economic outlook," balancing strong growth and persistent inflation, while considering the potential impact of artificial intelligence on productivity and price pressures [3] Market Expectations - Markets are pricing in less than a 3% chance of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting, although there are expectations for cuts later in the year [1][4] - Analysts anticipate that the Fed will remain on hold for the remainder of Powell's term, with Deutsche Bank predicting only one rate cut in September [6][7] - Equity markets are reaching record highs based on expectations that inflation will continue to cool, despite the Fed's anticipated decision to maintain current rates [4] Policy and Political Considerations - Analysts expect Powell to address not only the economic outlook but also legal and political pressures on the central bank, including recent Justice Department subpoenas and questions about his successor [8] - The Fed is likely to adopt a cautious tone, emphasizing data dependence amid a complex economic and political backdrop [10]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market has historically performed better on average when the Federal Reserve decides to hold interest rates steady rather than cutting them [1] Group 1 - The recent trend indicates a positive correlation between the Fed's decision to maintain rates and stock market performance [1]

Market Overview - The crypto market is currently characterized by tight trading ranges, resulting in minimal price movements for traders [1] - Bitcoin has recently struggled to maintain momentum after briefly surpassing $97,000, leading to bearish predictions regarding its potential to reach a new all-time high [2][3] Bitcoin Predictions - As of Thursday afternoon, predictors estimate a 19% chance for Bitcoin to surpass its previous all-time high of $126,080 by July, reflecting a nearly 10% decrease in optimism over the past week [3] - Bitcoin's price has recently fallen below $90,000, trading around $89,312 [3] Market Sentiment - Investor sentiment has been negatively impacted by President Trump's indecisiveness regarding Greenland and tariffs, resulting in a significant outflow from Bitcoin ETFs amounting to $709 million [4] - Despite the bearish sentiment, some industry figures, like Ripple's president, remain optimistic about the crypto market reaching new highs by 2026 [4] Gold vs. Ethereum Predictions - A prediction market on Myriad is focused on whether gold or Ethereum will reach $5,000 first, with gold currently priced at $4,938 after a 7.28% increase this week [6] - The odds have shifted significantly, now favoring gold at 94% likelihood of reaching $5,000 first, while Ethereum would need to increase by 60% from its current price of $2,948 [7]

Core Insights - The U.S. housing market is experiencing a shift as borrowers with historically low mortgage rates are beginning to refinance or sell their homes, indicating a change in market dynamics [1] - The housing market is expected to gradually recover, with various factors such as mortgage rates, Fed policy, and demographic demand influencing this momentum [2] - FINOFR has successfully reset over $1.33 billion in mortgages in the last 120 days, benefiting from recent Fed rate cuts and maintaining a high mortgage retention rate [3] - Independent Mortgage Bankers (IMBs) can enhance profitability by adopting strategies similar to larger lenders, such as retaining servicing in-house, which has shown to increase profitability by approximately 50% [4] Market Trends - The housing market is showing signs of thawing after years of elevated mortgage rates and tight inventory, with expectations for a measured recovery in 2026 [2] - Recent Fed rate cuts have led to a surge in mortgage reset activity, with FINOFR completing 1,139 transactions without additional operational strain [3] - The profitability of IMBs is closely tied to their ability to retain servicing, which creates recurring revenue and strengthens borrower relationships [4] Regulatory and Compliance - Covius Compliance Solutions has released a report detailing the regulatory landscape for the mortgage industry, highlighting evolving compliance expectations and the CFPB's modified role [5] Upcoming Events - Various industry conferences are scheduled, including the Independent Mortgage Bankers Conference and the Optimal Blue Summit, focusing on networking and education for mortgage professionals [9][11]

Group 1 - The January 2025 "State of the Industry Report" provides a comprehensive overview of the trucking, maritime, and intermodal markets, highlighting expected trends in the coming weeks [1] - The report includes detailed data on capacity, volumes, and rates, which are essential for understanding market dynamics [1] Group 2 - The truckload market has tightened significantly post-Thanksgiving, with spot rates and tender rejections increasing rapidly [2] - Reefer and dry van segments have tightened more than the previous year, while flatbed remains relatively stable with minimal volatility [2] - Rejection rates are 2-3 percentage points higher year-over-year, and spot rates have increased by nearly 9% year-over-year in aggregate [2] - Intermodal volume has seen a slight year-over-year increase in Q4, driven by strong service and favorable rate spreads compared to truckload [2] - Manufacturing is currently in contraction, as indicated by an ISM PMI of 48.2 in November, attributed to uncertainty and commodity inflation [2] - The Federal Reserve has cut rates again due to weakness in the labor market, with unemployment at 4.6% [2] - Housing market data remains limited but indicates a slow recovery, still down year-over-year [2] - The truckload market lacks economic support from demand to indicate a sustained recovery, although supply conditions are tightening [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Basic Materials Sector**: The report covers the basic materials sector in China, focusing on metals, steel, cement, paper, glass, and solar materials [1][2][3]. Metals - **Copper**: LME copper price increased by 2.0% WoW to US$11,764/t, while China's price decreased by 1.4% to RMB 92,640/t [1][32]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum rose by 1.3% WoW to US$2,872/t; however, China's price fell by 1.0% to RMB 21,820/t, leading to a margin squeeze of RMB 170/t WoW to RMB 5,915/t [1][15]. - **Gold**: COMEX gold price increased by 0.7% WoW to US$4,330/oz [1][11]. - **Lithium**: Domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) averaged RMB 97,650/t, up 3.3% WoW [1][55]. - **Uranium**: U₃O₈ spot price rose by 1.8% WoW to US$77.2/lb [1][65]. - **Cobalt**: Shanghai Changjiang cobalt price increased by 1.2% WoW to RMB 417,000/t [1][63]. - **Tungsten**: Prices accelerated due to supply shortages and import uncertainties [1]. Steel - **Price Recovery**: Rebar prices rose by 1.5% WoW to RMB 3,322/t, and HRC gained 1.2% to RMB 3,312/t [2][66]. - **Consumption**: Apparent consumption decreased by 0.5% WoW to 8.4 million tons, while inventories edged down by 0.15% to 13.3 million tons [2][66]. - **Iron Ore**: Price climbed by 3.2% WoW to USD 108.4/t [2][71]. - **Margins**: Negative margins persisted, with rebar falling to -RMB 292/t and HRC to -RMB 360/t [2][76]. Cement - **Price Trends**: National average cement price pulled back by 0.3% WoW to RMB 348/t, with regional variations [3][89]. - **Shipment Ratio**: Nationwide shipment ratio dropped by 1.4 percentage points WoW to 32.8% [3][22]. - **Inventory Ratio**: Inventory ratio decreased by 2.4 percentage points to 62.3% [3][22]. Paper and Glass - **Paper Prices**: Paper prices edged down by 0.89% WoW to RMB 3,751/t, influenced by cautious market sentiment [3][99]. - **Glass Prices**: National average float glass price declined by 1.2% WoW to RMB 1,151/t due to limited demand [3][98]. Solar Materials - **Polysilicon Prices**: Prices for N-type polysilicon and granular silicon remained stable at RMB 53/kg and RMB 51/kg, respectively [3][112]. - **Solar Glass Prices**: Prices for coated solar glass declined to RMB 18.5/sqm and RMB 11.5/sqm [3][121]. - **Inventory Days**: Solar glass inventory days expanded by 8.7% WoW to 35.92 [3][123]. Additional Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The report indicates a shift in market sentiment from traditional off-season to anti-involution expectations, impacting pricing and consumption dynamics [2][66]. - **Utilization Rates**: Blast furnace utilization rates decreased by 0.99 percentage points WoW to 85% [2][78]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting trends and data across various sectors within the basic materials industry in China.