🚨 NEWS: GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS SIGNAL SHOCKING SHIFT TOWARD RATE HIKES AS IRAN WAR DRIVES OIL SPIKEThe Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ, and Swiss National Bank all held rates steady this week, but with a clear hawkish tone.Barclays and J.P. Morgan now expect an ECB rate hike as early as April, with further increases through summer.Goldman Sachs models a scenario with cumulative 75 basis points of ECB hikes starting in June.The BoE warned inflation could climb to 3.5% amid surging oil prices, with Brent above $119 a barrel ...

>> THE COUNTDOWN IS ON, EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO GET THE EDGE AT THE END OF THE MARKET DAY. THIS IS "THE CLOSE. " ROMAINE: A THIRD WEEK IN THE POLITICAL PINBALL MACHINE. LIVE FROM STUDIO TO HEAR A BLOOMBERG HEADQUARTERS IN NEW YORK. I'M ROMAINE BOSTICK. KATIE: AND I AND KATIE GREIFELD. THE S&P 500 NOW DOWN 1.5%. WE ARE GOING TO CLOSE A FOURTH STRAIGHT WEEK. YOU CAN SEE VOLATILITY DRIVING IN THE S&P MARKET AS MEASURED BY THE VIX, NOW TRADING AT A 27 HANDLE, GETTING CLOSER AND CLOSER TO 28. THAT'S ACTUALLY WHER ...

ECB officials said they could raise rates as early as the April 29–30 meeting if the Iran conflict pushes inflation significantly above target, though no decision has been made and some see June as more likely; markets have increased tightening bets, now pricing at least two rate hikes this year. ...

NOT GOING TO GET A TREATY OF VERSAILLES. IT DIDN'T REALLY PLAY OUT THE WAY WE HOPED. AFTER THAT, I KNEW THAT MIGHT NOT BE THE RIGHT REFERENCE, BUT I MEANT AS A POINT IN TIME.YEAH. JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES HAS SOMETHING TO SAY ABOUT THAT. LET'S BRING IN CNBC.SENIOR ECONOMICS REPORTER STEVE LIESMAN KNOWS ALL ABOUT THAT AHEAD OF THE FED STEVE. AND OF COURSE THE FED IS LOOKING AT A LOT OF THE SAME ISSUES AND INFLUENCES THAT WE'RE TRYING TO HASH OUT. AND AND PERHAPS DOESN'T HAVE A CLEAR ANSWER OF HOW IT MIGHT PROCEED ...

Markets Are Ever So Slightly Talking Rate Hikes By Josh Schafer After a hotter-than-expected reading on U.S. producer prices on Wednesday morning, investors inched up the odds of a rate hike at the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's March meeting—though from an extremely low base. To be clear, the shift was rather minor. But as of 9:30 a.m. markets were pricing in a 1% chance of a hike, up from a 0.1% chance seen yesterday, per the CME FedWatch Tool. Consensus still projects the Fed will hold rates steady, ...

>> FROM NEW YORK CITY FOR OUR VIEWERS WORLDWIDE, I AM MATT ALONGSIDE EMILY GRAFFEO. "BLOOMBERG REAL YIELD" STARTS RIGHT NOW. COMING UP, SLUGGISH ECONOMIC DATA COMBINED WITH SURGING ENERGY COSTS PUTS PRESSURE ON THE FED'S DUAL MANDATE.PRIVATE CREDIT FLASHES WARNING SIGNS. WHEN THE OTHER HAND, PUBLIC CREDITS THESE MONSTER BOND SALES FROM AMAZON, DRIVING THE SECOND-BUSIEST WEEK EVER. HOW THE IRAN WAR AFFECTS THE GLOBAL ECONOMY.>> JUST BECAUSE THE PRESIDENT SAID IT MIGHT BE A SHORTER TERM CONFLICT DOES NOT MEAN ...

Economic Indicators - Consumer spending showed minimal growth in January, with real personal spending increasing by only 0.1% as Americans prioritized essential expenditures like health care [1] - Core inflation rose by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, remaining above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [1][4] - The GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter decreased to 0.7% from 1.4%, indicating weaker consumer and business spending than anticipated [6] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve has struggled to meet its inflation target for five years, facing multiple economic shocks including the pandemic and tariffs [2][3] - Despite a slight decrease in the headline inflation rate to 2.8% from 2.9%, core inflation remains a concern, with wages and salaries increasing by 0.5% after a minimal rise in December [4][5] - The yield curve has flattened, suggesting that bond traders are anticipating a real economic slowdown, while the short end of the curve remains stable as rate cuts are not expected until 2026 [10][11] Market Reactions and Future Outlook - There is a debate within the Federal Reserve regarding the appropriateness of current interest rates, with some members advocating for rate increases to combat persistent inflation [12][14] - The economic outlook remains uncertain, particularly with potential impacts from geopolitical events, which could further complicate inflation and growth dynamics [9][13] - Other global central banks, such as the ECB and those in Australia, are also considering rate hikes, indicating a divergence in monetary policy responses to inflation across different regions [15]

Currency Market Overview - Investors are navigating geopolitical tensions, a significant U.S. Supreme Court ruling on Trump's tariffs, and volatility in the artificial intelligence trade, with currency movements primarily influenced by changing rate expectations [1][12] - The focus has shifted from which central banks will cut rates to which will lead in hiking rates this year [2][12] Australian Dollar - The Australian dollar is on track for a monthly gain of approximately 2%, remaining steady at $0.7106 [4][12] - It has risen over 6% year-to-date, making it the best-performing G10 currency, supported by a strong domestic economy and expectations for a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia [5][12] - Analysts suggest the Australian dollar could gain an additional one or two U.S. cents, with one more 25-basis-point rate hike anticipated from the RBA this year [5][12] Japanese Yen - The yen has experienced a 0.4% decline for the week and a 0.6% decline for the month, despite a slight increase of 0.2% to 155.78 in Asia [6][12] - The nomination of two academics advocating for economic stimulus to the Bank of Japan's board raises concerns about the potential for further policy tightening [6][12] - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's indication of a possible rate hike in March/April has not significantly supported the yen due to conditional guidance and political optics [7][12] British Pound - The British pound is steady at $1.3484 but is set to end a three-month streak of gains with a 1.5% decline in February [8][12] - A dovish stance from the Bank of England has led traders to price in an 83% chance of a rate cut in March [8][12] U.S. Dollar - The dollar is expected to gain 0.6% for the month, bolstered by a more hawkish Federal Reserve, with several policymakers open to rate hikes if inflation remains high [9][12] - The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling against Trump's tariffs has reinforced checks and balances on presidential power, providing support to the dollar and improving its long-term outlook [10][12] Euro - The euro has shown muted movements, remaining little changed at $1.1796 and heading for a monthly loss of just over 0.4% [10][12] - Expectations indicate that the European Central Bank will maintain steady rates for the foreseeable future [10][12] Chinese Yuan - The People's Bank of China announced the removal of foreign exchange risk reserves for certain forwards contracts, reducing the cost of dollar purchases [11][12] - The yuan appreciated 4.4% against the dollar in 2025, marking its largest annual gain since 2020, with continued upward momentum into the new year [11][12]

Group 1 - Software stocks are experiencing a significant decline, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF down 4.6% on Monday after a series of sharp falls in recent weeks [1] - The decline in software stocks is attributed to the dual pressures of artificial intelligence threats and increased capital costs due to the Federal Reserve's rate hikes in 2022 [1]

Japan’s key inflation gauge eased to the slowest pace in two years on the back of temporary factors, in an outcome unlikely to shake the central bank’s resolve to press ahead with rate hikes when the timing is right https://t.co/fHoRPA6Ivc ...