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Murphy Oil: Accurate Risk Assessment Results In A Field Discovery And A Very Profitable Contract
Seeking Alpha· 2026-03-31 14:06
Core Insights - The article focuses on Murphy Oil (MUR), a smaller offshore player in the oil and gas industry, highlighting its effective risk assessment strategies and recent successes in Vietnam [2]. Company Analysis - Murphy Oil is recognized for its ability to handle risk assessment well, particularly noted for its success in Vietnam [2]. - The company operates in a cyclical industry characterized by boom and bust cycles, requiring patience and experience for successful investment [2]. Investment Strategy - The investment group, Oil & Gas Value Research, seeks undervalued and under-followed oil companies, as well as out-of-favor midstream companies that present compelling investment opportunities [2]. - The group facilitates discussions among investors through an active chat room, allowing for the exchange of recent information and investment ideas [2].
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2026-03-06 05:18
Overseas investors are pulling money out of emerging Asian stocks at the fastest pace in nearly four years as the escalating conflict in Iran triggers a reassessment of risk across global markets https://t.co/rjpTyincgM ...
X @Token Terminal 📊
Token Terminal 📊· 2026-03-05 12:43
RT Diego | Take Profits (@0xTakeProfits)As RWA markets mature, the frameworks used to analyze them must mature tooTraditional asset labels, while widely used, can be incompleteOnce tokenized, these assets carry at least two additional layers of risk beyond their underlying exposure:> the risk of the digital issuer> the risk of the blockchain infrastructure where the asset is issued and settlesIgnoring these layers can lead to an incomplete assessment of the true risk profileMore on this in tomorrow’s @Nexus ...
Easterly Government Properties: A Simple Case Of Valuation (NYSE:DEA)
Seeking Alpha· 2026-03-03 17:00
Core Viewpoint - Easterly Government Properties, Inc. (DEA) is considered undervalued due to its low risk profile relative to its economic yield of 10% [1][7][29] Financial Performance - DEA guided to a 2026 Core FFO of $3.05-$3.12, with a midpoint of $3.085, resulting in an FFO yield of 13.18% against the current market price of $23.41 [2] - The company has a conservative payout ratio of approximately 58%, with an annual dividend of $1.80 against guided CFFO of $3.08 [8] - DEA is projected to grow at about 2.5% per year, with a growth of ~2% in 2025 and a guidance of ~3% for 2026 [8] Lease Expirations and Renewals - As of December 31, 2025, DEA has 143 leases expiring, with a total leased square footage of 10,380,158, representing 100% of total annualized lease income of $381,351,950 [3] - The company has high renewal rates, currently at 97%, with positive rent spreads on renewals averaging 14% [4] Economic Yield and Risk Assessment - DEA's economic yield of 10% suggests it is perceived as riskier than junk bonds, which typically yield over 10% only during economic downturns [12][15] - The company operates with a debt to EBITDA ratio of 8.2X, which is higher than the preferred range of 5X-6X among institutional investors, but is mitigated by steady revenue from long-term leases [21][28] Market Perception and Valuation - DEA's stock price has decreased by 58% over the past five years, primarily due to a dividend cut in April 2025, leading to a market perception of high risk [30][33] - Despite the stock price drop, DEA's net operating income is at an all-time high, indicating that the reduced stock price allows for a higher yield on income [37]
Easterly Government Properties: A Simple Case Of Valuation
Seeking Alpha· 2026-03-03 17:00
Core Viewpoint - Easterly Government Properties, Inc. (DEA) is considered undervalued due to its low risk profile relative to its economic yield of 10% [1][7][29] Financial Performance - DEA guided to a 2026 Core FFO of $3.05-$3.12, with a midpoint of $3.085, resulting in an FFO yield of 13.18% against the current market price of $23.41 [2] - The company has a conservative payout ratio of approximately 58%, with an annual dividend of $1.80 against guided CFFO of $3.08 [8] - DEA is projected to grow at about 2.5% per year, with a growth of ~2% in 2025 and a guidance of ~3% for 2026 [8] Lease Expiration and Renewal - As of December 31, 2025, DEA has 143 leases expiring, with a total leased square footage of 10,380,158, representing 100% of total annualized lease income of $381,351,950 [3] - The company has high renewal rates, currently at 97%, with positive rent spreads on renewals averaging 14% [4] Economic Yield and Risk Assessment - DEA's economic yield is defined as the dividend yield plus the growth rate, which totals around 10% [6][9] - The market currently suggests that DEA is riskier than junk bonds, despite its stable revenue from long-term leases with the U.S. government [12][15] - DEA's business risk is assessed as lower than average due to its consistent revenue from high-credit tenants [16][28] Debt and Capital Structure - DEA operates with a debt to EBITDA ratio of 8.2X, which is higher than the preferred range of 5X-6X among institutional investors, but is mitigated by higher retained cash flows and declining debt levels [21][26][28] - The company has reduced its debt to gross properties from 58% in 2Q25 to 51.6% in 4Q25, indicating improved financial health [21] Market Perception - DEA's stock price has decreased by 58% over the past five years, primarily due to a dividend cut in April 2025 and market revaluation rather than actual business failure [30][33][34] - The current market environment has led to a mispricing of DEA, which is viewed as high risk despite its stable business model [29][30]
X @ESMA - EU Securities Markets Regulator 🇪🇺
#ESMAjobs | #DORA ICT officer- monitoring CTPPs- conducting analyses of the technologies, configurations, and solutions used by CTPPs- performing risk assessments, identifying risks, and analysing their potential implications⏰ Deadline: 17 March💼 https://t.co/KBgmiUClNA https://t.co/QCXBDKEkvL ...
As risk skyrockets, current and former CFOs are in demand for audit committees
Fortune· 2026-01-21 12:09
Core Insights - The role of audit committees in corporate governance is evolving due to an expanding risk landscape, with a focus on the importance of independent directors, particularly former CFOs, for effective oversight [1][6] Group 1: Audit Committee Appointments - Recent appointments to audit committees include J. Michael Hansen at Paychex, Britt Vitalone at Align Technology, and Catherine Birkett at Twinkl, highlighting a trend of selecting experienced financial leaders [2] Group 2: Resources and Support for Audit Committees - The Institute of Internal Auditors launched the Global Audit Committee Center to provide resources aimed at strengthening the relationship between audit committees and internal audit, including research and training programs [3][4] Group 3: Technology and Risk Management - Audit committees are increasingly leveraging AI and advanced analytics to identify and manage various types of risks, enhancing their ability to provide proactive oversight [7][8] - The need for clear governance frameworks for AI and analytics is emphasized, with a focus on ethical considerations and the importance of expert guidance [8] Group 4: Engagement and Curiosity in Audit Committees - Audit committees are encouraged to engage with technology and challenge management on their assumptions and judgments, which is crucial for maintaining trust in a rapidly changing environment [10]
X @Yuyue
Yuyue· 2026-01-11 15:26
说下这两天对 BSC 和 SOL 的思考吧首先有关上限的问题,SOL 上的新土狗比如白鲸确实是比 BSC 高太多,但就我自己来说,基本看到 5-20M 我就不敢上了。客观说,对自己今年的风险评估属于避险,也就是减少不必要的亏损,所以之前 SOL 上很高市值的 meme 都是没有去接盘的而 BSC 的情况,属于很多人都在喊 恶心,但由于熟悉中国文化的缘故,对于大部分国人来说,是更容易赚到钱的,这和舔不舔的基本没关系。这段时间我不刷推不看群,基本都在打游戏,但是看到 “老子” 和 “我踏马来了” 这种类似的币,我是能 get 到的。包括 @lijiuer1 还说过,踏马的梗在小红书等 web2 国人社交平台上是经常出现的就像我前几天说的,如果你真的觉得 BSC 恶心看着就想吐,那最好其实是不要玩。如果你真的在乎,想去赚这个钱,就放平心态参与炒作即可,不要给自己增加太多的心理负担不参与炒作,不玩这些很土的土狗,其实也不会影响生活,但是又讨厌又想玩的话,才是真的影响心情,找到适合自己做的 + 能力圈范围内的事最重要 ...
中国材料:2025 实地需求监测-动力煤生产与库存-China Materials_ 2025 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #176 – Thermal Coal Production and Inventory
2025-12-16 03:26
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Thermal Coal in China - **Data Source**: Sxcoal, a consultant tracking high-frequency demand trends in China Core Insights - **Production Trends**: - Thermal coal output from 100 sample mines was **12,187 kt** for the week of December 4-10, 2025 - This represents a **0.5% decrease week-over-week (WoW)**, a **3.6% decrease year-over-year (YoY)**, and a **3.1% decrease YoY on the lunar calendar** [2] - Breakdown of output by region: - Shanxi: **2,960 kt** (-0.9% WoW, -1.1% YoY) - Shaanxi: **3,516 kt** (-1.1% WoW, -9.5% YoY) - Inner Mongolia: **5,711 kt** (+0.1% WoW, -0.9% YoY) [2] - **Utilization Ratios**: - Overall utilization ratio for sample mines was **90.2%**, down **0.5 percentage points (ppt) WoW** and **3.4 ppt YoY** - Regional utilization ratios: - Shanxi: **86.0%** (-0.8 ppt WoW, -1.0 ppt YoY) - Shaanxi: **89.7%** (-1.0 ppt WoW, -9.4 ppt YoY) - Inner Mongolia: **93.0%** (+0.1 ppt WoW, flat YoY) [3] - **Inventory Levels**: - Total coal inventory in sample mines was **3,253 kt** on December 10, 2025, reflecting a **1.4% increase WoW** but a **2.8% decrease YoY** - Regional inventory levels: - Shanxi: **866 kt** (+1.4% WoW, -1.0% YoY) - Shaanxi: **698 kt** (+2.0% WoW, -15.4% YoY) - Inner Mongolia: **1,689 kt** (+1.1% WoW, +2.5% YoY) [4] Investment Recommendations - **Top Picks in the Sector**: - Hongqiao - Chalco H/A - Zijin Mining H/A - CATL-A [1] Risks Identified - **Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco)**: - Target price for A-share: **Rmb14.77**, based on **2.93x 2026E PB** - Risks include lower-than-expected aluminum prices, higher costs, and potential government policy changes [14][15] - **Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL)**: - Target price: **Rmb571/share**, based on **17.3x 2026E EV/EBITDA** - Risks include lower EV demand and increased competition in the battery market [18] - **China Hongqiao**: - Target price: **HK$36.0/share**, based on **11.4x 2026E PE** - Risks include cost overruns and economic slowdown [19][20] - **Zijin Mining**: - Target price for A-share: **Rmb35.5/share**, based on DCF valuation - Risks include lower gold and copper prices and capex overruns [22][25] Additional Notes - **Market Positioning**: The report indicates a pecking order of demand across various sectors, with aluminum and copper leading, followed by battery materials and coal [1] - **Year-to-Date (YTD) Production**: YTD thermal coal output was **606 million tonnes (mnt)**, reflecting a **2.4% increase YoY** [2]
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-11-19 15:28
The global financial stability watchdog have vowed to double down on efforts to better assess the risk from private credit and stablecoins in 2026 and explore ways to modernize financial regulation in general. https://t.co/pt2uTrA3Qx ...