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How Fed Rate Cuts Affect Bitcoin, AI & The Market
Anthony Pompliano· 2025-12-13 14:01
Fed Policy & Market Impact - The Fed's 25 basis point rate cut was largely expected, but the dovish messaging, highlighting concerns about labor market weakness and potential overstatement of non-farm payroll numbers by approximately 60,000 jobs, surprised the market [1] - The Fed acknowledged the need to start treasury bill purchases at $40 billion per month, signaling continued liquidity support, which is seen as positive for assets like gold and Bitcoin [1] - Equities reacted positively, with small caps and transports rising, indicating a shift towards cyclical, pro-inflation trades, while growth stocks underperformed value stocks [2] Bitcoin & Crypto - Bitcoin's chart looks weak, but there are buy signals, with expectations of a surge back to $100,000 if it can get above $93,000, and Ethereum is outperforming Bitcoin [2] - The long-term view is that Bitcoin will benefit from the AI-driven hyper-productivity growth, as AI models compete with each other, diminishing moats and emphasizing adaptability, making Bitcoin a compelling large-cap growth investment [6][26] AI & Technology - The progress in AI models, particularly from GPT-4 to GPT-5, is based on advancements in reasoning and reinforcement learning, rather than solely on hardware, but the Blackwell deployment is crucial for visual language models and physical world applications like robotics and robo-taxis [3] - The consensus in San Francisco is that recursive self-improvement in AI will be reached in the next 2-4 years, leading to hyper-productivity and computers solving problems in energy and biology [5] - Open-source AI models are gaining traction, offering faster and cheaper solutions, but Blackwell chips provide a significant performance jump, potentially favoring closed-source models in the long run [5][6] Economic Transition & Investment Strategies - The US economy is transitioning from analog/electronic to digital, causing disruption and "shedding skin," with small business bankruptcies at a record high, but also creating opportunities for individuals to create income streams online [8] - The focus is shifting from software to hardware, with opportunities in energy, transportation, and small-cap companies making LiDAR and sensors, as the physical world is still essential to fuel technology [9] - The IPO market is expected to be historically active in the next 12-18 months, with companies like Anthropic, XAI, OpenAI, and SpaceX going public, requiring capital to build out physical infrastructure [8] Risks & Opportunities in 2026 - While a major recession is considered low probability, 20-30% market corrections are expected in the next 5 years due to events impacting profit margins and productivity [9] - A potential risk is the capex hole, where hyperscalers are spending heavily on infrastructure but not yet seeing corresponding revenue increases, potentially impacting valuations [9] - Embodied AI, starting with robo-taxis, is a major theme for the coming year, creating opportunities in hardware, batteries, and commodities like copper [10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17]
X @The Economist
The Economist· 2025-12-10 23:40
In the race to dominate artificial intelligence, China is neck and neck with America in software. But on hardware, a gap remains. America’s chipmakers, led by Nvidia, are far ahead https://t.co/ormIpGxkyv ...
Volkswagen sets out €160bn investment plan through 2030
Yahoo Finance· 2025-12-08 12:46
Core Viewpoint - Volkswagen Group plans to invest €160 billion ($186 billion) through 2030, focusing on products, technology, and infrastructure primarily in Germany and Europe [1][3]. Investment Strategy - The investment is part of Volkswagen's five-year capital expenditure plan, which is revised annually, and is a decrease from the previously earmarked €165 billion for 2025-2029 and €180 billion for 2024-2028 [1][2]. - The investment will also support developments in future-oriented fields such as battery cells, software, and autonomous driving [3]. Market Challenges - Volkswagen faces challenges in its major markets, particularly in the US due to import tariffs and increasing competition in China, which has significantly impacted Porsche, as it generates about half of its vehicle sales in these regions [2][4]. - The company is adjusting its strategy in China, aiming to reduce the cost of developing electric vehicles by up to 50% with the commissioning of a new test center in Hefei [4]. Future Plans - The decision on whether Audi will proceed with a potential manufacturing plant in the US will depend on the financial incentives available from the US government [3]. - Porsche is not expected to expand in China, but there is potential for local vehicle production tailored to Chinese buyers [4].
X @Forbes
Forbes· 2025-12-07 13:15
30 Under 30 Venture Capital 2026: Meet The Young Investors Funding The Future Of Climate, Software And AIWith big bets in cutting-edge software, fintech and AI, these young venture capitalists are transforming the world of investing, one check at a time.Read more:https://t.co/ZOeZHqLcGT #ForbesUnder30 ...
Waymo announces recall over cars driving past stopped school buses
NBC News· 2025-12-06 05:00
Whimo announcing a major software recall for its fleet of autonomous vehicles. It comes after we reported on incidents like this one. You can see the cars passing a stop school bus with lights flashing.A federal investigation is underway over the close call with those school buses. ...
Ziff Davis, Inc. (ZD) Presents at UBS Global Technology and AI Conference 2025 Transcript
Seeking Alpha· 2025-12-03 17:53
Company Overview - Ziff Davis has a long history, with its brand dating back a century to the original Ziff Davis [2] - The company initially focused on eFax services and diversified into Internet-based digital media, software, and subscription data assets over the past decade [2] - In 2021, Ziff Davis rebranded after spinning off its legacy business, marking a significant transformation [3] Business Structure - The company serves global communities with digital media content, software, and database services [3] - As of February of this year, Ziff Davis has structured its operations into five divisions, which are now reportable segments [3]
X @Binance
Binance· 2025-12-03 14:12
“We’ve been very focused on software, but the real quantum leap for Web3 experiences comes from hardware.” - Joshua Sum, Head of Product, Solayer https://t.co/o28RDimsXC ...
Why AI Moats Still Matter (And How They've Changed)
a16z· 2025-12-03 14:01
The thing that is fundamentally different about this product cycle is that the software itself can actually do the work and therefore the market opportunity for software today is no longer just IT spend. It's largely labor. It's not like all the jobs will go away.I actually think that's not going to happen at all. There are a lot of things where if I could hire somebody for a dollar to do this task, I would 100% do that. I've never been able to hire somebody for a dollar. Now I can hire software for a dolla ...
X @TechCrunch
TechCrunch· 2025-11-26 18:50
GM tech executive shakeup continues on software team https://t.co/0wsSIPc9By ...
X @Nick Szabo
Nick Szabo· 2025-11-10 00:53
RT Blake Scholl 🛫 (@bscholl)A robotic car factory is ~a software change away from being a robotic tank factory. https://t.co/I1MwLm3q2L ...