Core Insights - Erik Smolinski, a full-time trader, has achieved significant stock market returns, with an average return of 24.6% from 2018 to 2022 and a record triple-digit return in 2023 [1][2] - His success is attributed to a structured approach, including detailed trading plans and regular after-action reviews (AARs) to assess performance and adjust strategies [2][6] Group 1: Trading Performance - Smolinski's strongest year was 2023, with triple-digit returns, and he reported a 79% return in 2025, indicating a potential third-strongest year [2] - He has only experienced two negative years since he began trading in 2007, showcasing a consistent performance [1] Group 2: Strategy and Methodology - The use of monthly AARs and an extensive annual review allows Smolinski to evaluate what strategies worked and what did not, facilitating necessary adjustments [3][4] - He emphasizes the importance of adapting strategies based on market shifts, particularly the dominance of tech stocks in recent years [4][5] Group 3: Advice for Investors - Smolinski encourages everyday investors to conduct regular reviews of their portfolios, suggesting at least quarterly or annual check-ins to compare returns against major market benchmarks [6][7]

Nifty Bank index began today with a minor gap-up at 59,073 versus yesterday’s close of 59,035. But it slipped after opening and is now at 58,940, down nearly 0.2 per cent.Even as the index is down so far, the advance/decline ratio stands at 8/4, showing some positive bias. Canara Bank (up 2.1 per cent) is the top gainer followed by State Bank of India (up 1.5 per cent).At the other end, ICICI Bank (down 1.4 per cent) is the top loser followed by IndusInd Bank (down 0.9 per cent).Nifty PSU Bank has appreciat ...

Core Viewpoint - Lululemon's recent earnings report and the announcement of CEO Calvin McDonald's departure have led to a 10% rally in the stock, indicating investor optimism about potential leadership changes and a turnaround strategy for the brand [1][2][18]. Financial Performance - Lululemon's stock experienced a 9% increase during the trading session, although it has come off its highs [1]. - The company has faced stagnant growth and acknowledged that previous strategies under McDonald were not effective, leading to a need for new leadership [3][4]. Leadership Transition - The announcement of McDonald's departure has sparked investor interest, although there is uncertainty regarding the next CEO and their ability to revitalize the brand [5][6]. - The new CEO will need to reimagine the brand's identity and respond more quickly to market trends, similar to successful strategies employed by competitors [6]. Market Challenges - Despite the positive stock reaction, Lululemon continues to face revenue pressures, particularly in the U.S. market, where consumer preferences have shifted away from the brand [8][10]. - The company has successfully expanded its customer base to include Gen Z and even Gen Alpha, but these demographics are now gravitating towards other brands and styles [9][10]. Strategic Recommendations - Analysts suggest that Lululemon must innovate and introduce new styles to attract back consumers who have moved on to competitors [10]. - The company needs to enhance its creative talent and marketing strategies to regain its competitive edge in the athleisure market [6].

Core Insights - Nifty Bank index opened lower at 58,919, down 0.2% from the previous close of 59,239, currently trading at 59,125 [1] - The advance/decline ratio is 7/5, indicating a bullish bias, with Canara Bank and IDFC First Bank as top gainers, both up 0.75%, while Kotak Mahindra Bank and ICICI Bank are the top losers, down 0.7% and 0.6% respectively [1] Nifty PSU and Private Banks - Nifty PSU Bank has gained 0.4%, outperforming the Nifty Private Bank, which has lost 0.3% [2] Nifty Bank Futures - December expiry Nifty Bank futures opened lower at 59,400, currently trading at 59,425, down 0.2% [3] - Key support levels are at 59,150 and 59,000, suggesting that the downswing is unlikely to extend beyond 59,000 [3] Recovery and Outlook - A recovery from the current level of 59,425 or after a decline to the 59,000-59,150 region could push Nifty Bank futures to 60,500, with potential further gains to 61,000 [4] - If the support at 59,000 is breached, a bearish outlook may lead to a decline to 58,250 [4] Trade Strategy - Recommendation to buy Nifty Bank futures if it drops to 59,150, with target at 60,500 and stop-loss at 58,800 [5] - Supports are identified at 59,150 and 59,000, while resistances are at 60,500 and 61,000 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Applied Digital Corporation's shares are experiencing a decline, influenced by the reversal in NVIDIA Corporation's stock following its strong earnings report [1] Group 1: Stock Performance and Trading Behavior - Analysts suggest that the decline in Applied Digital's shares is linked to traders placing sell orders at specific price levels, creating resistance [1] - The stock has seen significant trading activity around the $21.50 level, where traders identified support and decided to buy [5] - Traders who sold shares in October at higher prices are now regretting their decisions as the stock rallied, leading to increased buy orders at the $21.50 support level [6] Group 2: Price Levels and Trading Strategies - Successful trading strategies involve recognizing important price levels and using them as targets for entry and exit [3] - The $30.70 price level is highlighted as a potential resistance point, where traders who previously bought may look to sell to break even [7] - The presence of a large number of sell orders at the $30.70 level could create a ceiling on the stock price, indicating a logical selling point for traders [6][7]

Group 1 - Nifty Bank index opened at 58,315, showing a gap-up from Tuesday's close of 58,007, currently trading at 58,470, up 0.8% [1] - The advance/decline ratio is 10/2, indicating a bullish sentiment, with IDFC First Bank and Axis Bank as top performers, up 3.5% and 2.5% respectively [1] - Canara Bank and Bank of Baroda are the only losers in the Nifty Bank index, down 0.5% and 0.15% respectively [1] Group 2 - Nifty PSU Bank has gained 1.4% today, outperforming Nifty Private Bank, which is up 1.2% [2] Group 3 - October expiry Nifty Bank futures opened higher at 58,305, currently trading at 58,450, reflecting strong upward momentum [3] - The contract has marked a higher high in early trade, with expectations to move towards 59,000 despite a potential minor decline to 58,300 [3] Group 4 - If Nifty Bank futures slip below 58,100, the intraday outlook may turn bearish, but the chances of falling below this level are considered low [4] Group 5 - Trade strategy suggests buying Nifty Bank futures at 58,450 and on a dip to 58,300, with targets set at 59,000 and a stop-loss at 58,000 [5] - Supports are identified at 58,100 and 57,900, while resistances are at 59,000 and 59,250 [5]

Group 1 - Tesla is expected to report earnings of approximately $0.52 per share, a decline from $0.72 in the same period last year, while revenues are projected to slightly increase to $25.41 billion [2] - The company reported Q3 delivery figures showing a 7% year-over-year increase in total shipments to 462,890 vehicles, driven by a surge in EV purchases in the U.S. before the federal tax credit expired [2] - Tesla faces challenges in Europe due to opposition to CEO Elon Musk's political views and increasing competition from BMW, Volkswagen, and BYD [2] Group 2 - Tesla's current market capitalization stands at $1.4 trillion, with revenue over the past twelve months amounting to $93 billion, and it reported $5.8 billion in operating profits and a net income of $6.1 billion [3] - Historical trends indicate that there is a 63% chance of positive one-day post-earnings returns based on 19 earnings data points over the last five years, though this percentage drops to 55% when considering the last three years [5] - The median of the 12 positive one-day returns is 4.2%, while the median of the 7 negative returns is -6.1% [5]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts have mixed opinions on the iPhone 17 pre-order numbers, with some expressing optimism while others remain cautious about demand trends [2][3][10]. Pre-order Analysis - UBS reports mixed demand for the iPhone 17 lineup, indicating that wait times for the Pro and Pro Max models are less favorable compared to the iPhone 16, with a neutral rating and a $220 price target [3]. - Bank of America notes that shipping dates for the iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max are longer than those for the iPhone 16, suggesting strong demand [6]. - Morgan Stanley observes that lead times for the new devices are tracking higher year-over-year, indicating increased early demand, and has an overweight rating with a $240 price target [7]. Market Performance - Apple’s sales in China fell by 6% year-over-year leading up to the iPhone 17 launch, amidst a broader market decline of 2% [5]. - Apple holds a 12% market share in China, ranking sixth in the country [6]. International Demand - Morgan Stanley highlights stronger international demand for the iPhone 17, with longer lead times reported in markets such as China, Japan, the UK, France, and Germany [8]. - JP Morgan corroborates the trend of higher lead times compared to the iPhone 16, maintaining an overweight rating [9]. Product Popularity - The orange color variant of the iPhone 17 has gained significant popularity, selling out within an hour of release and remaining on back order [10].

Core Insights - Boston Scientific (BSX) is scheduled to announce its earnings on July 23, 2025, with historical data indicating a 60% chance of positive returns the day after earnings announcements [2][7] - The current consensus estimates for BSX's upcoming earnings are $0.72 per share on revenue of $4.89 billion, showing improvement from the previous year's earnings of $0.62 per share on revenues of $4.12 billion [3] - BSX has a market capitalization of $153 billion, with revenues of $18 billion, operating profits of $3.2 billion, and net income of $2.0 billion over the past twelve months [4] Historical Performance - Over the past five years, BSX has recorded 20 earnings data points, resulting in 12 positive and 8 negative one-day returns, with a median positive return of 3.2% and a median negative return of -1.2% [7] - The likelihood of positive one-day returns increases to 67% when considering the last three years instead of five [7] Trading Strategies - Traders may consider positioning before the earnings announcement based on historical probabilities, while also assessing the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns post-announcement [6] - Analyzing the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns can provide a less risky trading strategy, particularly if the 1D and 5D returns show high correlation [8]

Core Insights - United Airlines is scheduled to release its earnings report on July 17, 2025, with traders focusing on historical stock performance related to earnings announcements [2] - The current consensus forecasts predict earnings of $3.88 per share on revenue of $15.33 billion, compared to $4.14 per share on revenue of $14.99 billion in the same quarter last year [3] Historical Performance - Over the past five years, United Airlines stock has experienced negative one-day returns following earnings releases in 60% of cases, with a median negative return of -4.0% and a maximum decline of -10.2% [3][7] - There have been 20 earnings data points recorded in the past five years, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns approximately 40% of the time [7] Financial Metrics - United Airlines currently has a market capitalization of $29 billion, with $58 billion in revenue, $5.6 billion in operating profits, and a net income of $3.7 billion over the last twelve months [4] Trading Strategies - Traders may consider pre-earnings positioning based on historical probabilities and assess the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns following the earnings announcement [6] - A relatively lower-risk strategy involves assessing the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings to inform trading decisions [8]