8 January 2026 | 11:55PM EST Equity Research Netflix Inc. (NFLX) Q4 '25 Earnings Preview NFLX 12m Price Target: $112.00 Price: $90.53 Upside: 23.7% Ahead of its Q4 2025 earnings report, we preview current industry data and highlight trends in third party data and NFLX's content slate. Since its last earnings report on 10/21, shares are down (27)% (vs. the S&P 500 +3%) reflecting a shift in investor focus away from NFLX's forward opportunities (as a standalone entity) and toward a range of debates around the ...

Core Insights - Disney's stock has shown modest gains over the past decade, with a price appreciation of 12.4% from $99.19 in December 2015 to $111.46 today, resulting in a total value of approximately $11,257 for a $10,000 investment [1] - Including dividends, the total return over the 10-year period is approximately 20.7%, equating to about 1.9% annually, which is significantly lower than the S&P 500's return of roughly 229% [4][5] Dividend Analysis - Disney paid semi-annual dividends from 2016 to early 2020, increasing from $1.42 per share in 2016 to $1.76 per share in 2019, its highest ever [2] - The dividend was suspended in May 2020 due to the pandemic and was not restored until January 2024, starting at 30 cents per share and increasing to 45 cents by July 2024, which is still about half of the pre-pandemic payout [3] Performance Comparison - A $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 index fund would have grown to approximately $32,900 over the same period, nearly three times the return of Disney [5] Factors Behind Underperformance - Disney's decade included significant acquisitions, such as 21st Century Fox for $71 billion, and a major business transformation towards streaming, which required substantial content spending that impacted profits [6] - The launch of Disney+ initially attracted subscribers but led to financial losses for years before achieving profitability in Q3 2024, while traditional cable networks like ESPN faced declining viewership and revenue [7]

Core Insights - The potential deal between Warner Bros, Netflix, and Paramount is highly speculative, and investors should focus on actual outcomes rather than possibilities [6][8][20] - The streaming landscape is evolving, with sports content becoming increasingly fragmented across various platforms, complicating consumer access [29][30][31] - Metrics such as average revenue per user (ARPU) and content spend are critical for investors to monitor, as profitability has become a key focus in the industry [42][44][49] Group 1: Streaming Deals and Speculation - The ongoing speculation regarding the Warner Bros and Netflix deal is characterized by misinformation and changing narratives, making it essential for investors to discern facts from opinions [6][10][20] - If the deal proceeds, Netflix would acquire significant assets, including live TV channels and sports rights, which could transform its business model [12][13] - The regulatory environment will play a crucial role in the approval of any major acquisitions, with potential delays of up to two years anticipated [21][22] Group 2: Sports Streaming Dynamics - The NFL is increasingly leveraging streaming services for its games, leading to a fragmented viewing experience for consumers [29][30][31] - Current data on the impact of sports content on direct-to-consumer streaming services is limited, making it difficult to assess its effect on subscriber growth and retention [32][33] - The NBA's approach to streaming is more consolidated compared to the NFL, aiming to simplify access for consumers [84] Group 3: Financial Metrics and Investor Focus - Investors should prioritize metrics such as ARPU and content spend, as these indicators are essential for understanding the financial health of streaming companies [44][49] - The shift from growth at all costs to a focus on profitability has altered the landscape, with companies like Disney and Warner Bros achieving profitability in their direct-to-consumer segments [43][44] - The lack of transparency in reporting ARPU and subscriber metrics complicates the ability to evaluate the performance of streaming services [45][46][49] Group 4: Industry Comparisons and Consumer Behavior - The streaming industry is not a zero-sum game; multiple companies can succeed simultaneously by catering to different consumer preferences [102][105] - The definition of "TV" is evolving, with younger generations viewing content across various platforms without strict adherence to traditional formats [100][105] - Companies like Apple and Amazon approach content differently, focusing on brand amplification rather than direct revenue generation from streaming services [62][63]

By Akash Sriram Dec 22 (Reuters) - Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison has stepped in to personally guarantee $40.4 billion in Paramount Skydance's latest effort to pry Warner Bros Discovery away from selling its prized Hollywood assets to streaming giant Netflix. The ​guarantee, disclosed in a filing on Monday, seeks to allay the Warner Bros board's doubts about Paramount's financing and ‌the lack of full Ellison family backing, which had pushed it toward the competing cash-and-stock offer from Netflix. W ...

Disney shares have been volatile this year, but they've trailed the market.In 2025, the S&P 500 has so far generated a 17% total return (as of Dec. 17). In the face of trade uncertainties and waning consumer confidence, this is a great performance for the broad index. Unfortunately, Walt Disney (DIS +1.21%) has lagged the benchmark with a total return of 1.4%.Disney is still a media and entertainment powerhouse with a wide economic moat. Here's what investors should watch as we head into 2026. Looking back ...

Core Viewpoint - A private equity firm linked to Jared Kushner has withdrawn its support for Paramount's acquisition bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, which is now competing with Netflix's offer for Warner [1][5]. Group 1: Acquisition Bids - Paramount has launched a rival bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, offering $30 per share, surpassing Netflix's offer of $27.75 [1]. - Warner Bros. Discovery, a major player in Hollywood, owns significant assets including HBO and the Harry Potter franchise, making its acquisition a pivotal move in the streaming wars [2]. Group 2: Strategic Decisions - Paramount's decision to bypass Warner's management was due to their lack of engagement with previous offers [3]. - The new offer includes the entire Warner portfolio, including assets like CNN, which Netflix's bid does not cover [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Considerations - Paramount believes its offer may face less regulatory scrutiny under the Trump administration compared to the Netflix deal, which the president has indicated could be problematic due to market share concerns [4]. - The withdrawal of Kushner's financial backing diminishes Paramount's potential advantage in winning over Trump [4]. Group 4: Financial Backing - Despite the withdrawal of Kushner's firm, Paramount's bid is still supported by sovereign wealth funds from Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, and Qatar [5]. - Paramount is now led by David Ellison, whose family has connections to Trump, although Trump has criticized the Ellisons recently [6].

Core Viewpoint - Warner Bros is poised to reject a hostile $108 billion takeover bid from Paramount, as one of Paramount's financing partners has withdrawn from the offer, indicating a significant change in investment dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Takeover Dynamics - The Warner Bros Discovery board is expected to advise shareholders to reject Paramount's bid, which would allow Netflix to proceed with its $72 billion deal [2]. - Paramount's offer includes a cash payment of $30 per share, which is $18 billion more than Netflix's offer, and is made directly to shareholders in a hostile takeover attempt [8]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The outcome of the takeover battle is crucial for gaining a competitive edge in the streaming wars, with Warner Bros planning to split into two companies to better manage its assets [5]. - If Paramount's bid succeeds, it would consolidate CBS and CNN under the same parent company, further reshaping the media landscape [8]. Group 3: Financial Details - Netflix's agreement is priced at $27.75 per share, totaling $72 billion, with the overall asset value reaching $82.7 billion [6]. - The involvement of significant financial backers, including funds from Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries, highlights the international stakes in this acquisition [1]. Group 4: Regulatory Considerations - The final decision on the takeover will involve scrutiny from the U.S. Department of Justice's Antitrust Division, which oversees business deals to ensure fair competition [11].

Core Viewpoint - Warner Bros. Discovery's board is expected to recommend shareholders vote against Paramount Skydance's $108.4 billion takeover bid, with a decision potentially announced as early as Wednesday [1][4]. Group 1: Takeover Bids - Paramount Skydance has made a $108.4 billion bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, which includes a $30-a-share, all-cash offer directed at Warner Bros. shareholders [5][7]. - Netflix previously made a $27 cash-and-stock bid for Warner Bros.' non-cable assets, which has been accepted [2][4]. Group 2: Financing and Regulatory Aspects - Paramount's bid is financed by $41 billion in new equity backed by the Ellison family and RedBird Capital, along with $54 billion in debt commitments from Bank of America, Citi, and Apollo [6]. - Paramount claims its offer is superior to Netflix's and would face a clearer path to regulatory approval [6]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The winner of the bidding war will gain a significant advantage in the streaming market by acquiring a vast content library, which includes iconic films and popular series [2][4].

Netflix’s and Paramount’s $100bn battle to buy Warner Bros Discovery is a gripping drama. But the focus on the streaming wars misses a bigger storyline https://t.co/rDcHxgtun2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The streaming industry is experiencing heightened competition, with Netflix pursuing a significant acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery to expand its content library amidst rival Paramount Skydance's hostile takeover attempt [2][3][5]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Netflix has announced a deal to acquire strategic assets from Warner Bros. Discovery, including its film and television studios and HBO Max, with an enterprise value of approximately $82.7 billion [5]. - Paramount Skydance is attempting a hostile takeover with an all-cash offer of $30 per share, valuing the proposal at an enterprise value of $108.4 billion [6]. - The deal has attracted regulatory scrutiny due to concerns over anticompetitive behavior [7]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - If the acquisition is successful, Netflix would gain valuable intellectual properties such as Game of Thrones and the Harry Potter franchise, which could enhance its competitive position [9]. - Netflix plans to keep HBO Max separate from its core streaming services but aims to promote it to its existing subscriber base of over 300 million [9]. - The acquisition is seen as a way for Netflix to strengthen its competitive moat in a consolidating streaming market [11]. Group 3: Financial Considerations - Following the acquisition, Netflix's debt could rise to $75 billion, nearly three times its EBITDA over the past four quarters, which may impact short-term financial performance [12][13]. - Despite the debt burden, Netflix's profitability has been improving, suggesting potential for increased profits in the long term [13]. - Currently, Netflix's stock is trading 30% below its all-time high, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 38, and analysts project long-term earnings growth at an annualized rate of 23% [12][14].