management the manager CEO also the managing partner to Thomas Helick and you know uh it's it's it's pretty imp amazing to me right because you'd already said listen this has been somewhat orderly although beneath the surface there have been pockets in this market that gotten hit uh and so what do you make of today's reaction I think the instant reaction just kind of so I've been saying it's a coiled spring for a while >> well I I agree with you on the coiled spring we've been optimistic on the market for a ...

Joining me now here at the big board to talk us through all the volatility is Tom Hayes, founder and managing member of Great Hill Capital. Tom, it's good to see you. Um, let's start out with where things stand from a macro perspective.We got a new tweet truth this morning uh with President Trump talking about uh basically they're going to pull back. They've had productive conversations with Iran is what was said. There's been some push back from Iran, but basically a lot of volatility.You said that similar ...

Core Insights - Disney's new CEO, Josh D'Amaro, takes over from Bob Iger and is expected to provide updates on his plans during the annual shareholder meeting [2][3] - D'Amaro's leadership may shift focus towards the Experiences segment, which is the most profitable, contributing nearly 40% of revenue and about 60% of operating income for fiscal 2025 [2] - Concerns exist regarding a decline in international visitors to Disney parks and rising travel costs due to geopolitical tensions, impacting stock performance [2][3] Company Strategy - D'Amaro's appointment follows a series of executive changes and aims to enhance investor confidence in Disney's succession planning [3] - The new CEO is anticipated to address profitability issues related to Disney's streaming services, including Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN, which have been financially burdensome [2][3] Market Performance - Disney's stock has seen a decline of approximately 12% in 2026, although it is up about 1% over the past 12 months [6] - Analysts remain optimistic, with all tracked analysts recommending a buy, and an average price target of around $138 suggests potential for recovery to the stock's highest levels in four years [5]

Core Viewpoint - Disney's stock is currently trading at a historically low multiple, raising questions about whether this represents a genuine investment opportunity or a potential value trap amid geopolitical volatility and changing consumer habits [1][10]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Valuation - Disney's stock has remained relatively flat over the past four years, but a new narrative is emerging in 2026, suggesting a potential recovery driven by infrastructure investments and a shift towards streaming profitability [2]. - The stock is currently down nearly 15% from its year-to-date high, and analysts note that it is trading at a historically low multiple of under 15, compared to an average of 24 times earnings over the past five years [7][10]. - The company is expected to generate $19 billion in operating cash flow and has announced a $7 billion share buyback, indicating a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders [11]. Group 2: Business Segments and Growth Drivers - The "Experiences" segment, which includes theme parks and cruises, accounted for over 38% of Disney's revenue last year and is viewed as the most reliable growth engine for the company [3]. - Disney's Chief Financial Officer expressed confidence in the parks and cruises business, highlighting aggressive capacity expansion plans, including doubling the Disney Cruise Line fleet and introducing new attractions [4]. - The streaming segment has shown a significant turnaround, with an operating income of $450 million last quarter, and profit margins are expected to rise to 10% this year from 5% last year, indicating a positive shift towards profitability [8][9]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts believe that the synergy between Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN is effectively mitigating the decline in traditional linear TV, which has been a challenge for legacy media [8]. - The combination of a low P/E ratio and a modest dividend yield of 1.5% presents a compelling entry point for disciplined investors, despite concerns about external factors like rising gasoline prices [10][11].

Shares of The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) have been hovering near a historically modest valuation. As of this writing, the stock trades at about 15 times earnings. For a sprawling entertainment empire with unmatched intellectual property, this price might seem like a bargain. But the hard part about investing is that a cheap stock is often cheap for a reason. Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopo ...

Core Viewpoint - The merger of Warner Bros. and Paramount Skydance aims to leverage their combined streaming platforms, cable TV channels, and sports rights to maximize value for subscribers and advertisers [1]. Group 1: Sports Rights Importance - Live sports are crucial for attracting viewers and generating significant advertising revenue [2]. - The combined sports portfolio will enhance the media company's ability to justify higher prices for its cable channels, including USA, TNT, and TBS [2]. Group 2: Streaming Platform Integration - The companies will merge their Paramount+ and HBO Max streaming services into a single platform, likely resulting in higher subscription prices or tiered plans that include live CBS and sports content [3]. - Current subscription prices for Paramount+ are $8.99 for the ad-supported plan and $13.99 for the ad-free plan with live CBS, while HBO Max plans are $10.99 for the ad-supported plan and $18.99 for the ad-free plan [3]. Group 3: Subscriber Base - Paramount+ has approximately 79 million global subscribers, while Warner Bros. reported 131.6 million combined subscribers across HBO Max and Discovery+ [4]. Group 4: Financial Considerations - The combined media company will carry a significant level of debt, which may impact its credit ratings and ability to invest heavily in sports rights [5]. - The NFL rights will be critical for the future of the combined entity, with potential challenges in negotiating rights for NHL and AEW, especially as competition from other players like Netflix increases [6].

Summary of The Walt Disney Company Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) - **Date of Conference**: March 02, 2026 - **Key Speakers**: Hugh Johnston, CFO Key Points Leadership Transition - The board conducted a thorough 1.5-year process to select Josh as CEO and Dana as Chief Creative Officer, indicating a strong internal and external candidate evaluation [4][5] - There is significant internal excitement about the leadership change, with both leaders having strong followership and a smooth succession process [7] Business Model and Strategy - Disney's mission is to entertain the world, competing for consumers' entertainment time through a straightforward business model involving a creative engine (IP in film and TV) and monetization engines (B2B transactions and consumer transactions) [8][9][10] - The strategy focuses on engaging consumers, increasing monetization, and expanding into new areas, particularly in streaming, which is seen as a durable earnings growth driver [10][11] Streaming and Technology - Disney's streaming business is valued at over $20 billion, with double-digit revenue growth and nearly 200 million subscriptions, indicating significant growth potential in a $500 billion global television market [19][20] - Internationally, there is a focus on increasing penetration, particularly in markets like Japan, Korea, and Latin America, with tailored content strategies [22][23] - AI is viewed as a game-changing technology for Disney, with applications in video production, guest management, and personalized consumer interactions [12][13][28][32] Financial Performance and Guidance - Disney reiterated its guidance for double-digit EPS growth in 2026 and 2027, with a strong start to the fiscal year [14][15] - Specific business performance includes a projected $500 million in SVOD operating income for Q2, up $200 million year-over-year, and a 5% revenue growth in the experiences business [15][16] Film Strategy - The film studios are key to Disney's IP engine, generating new content and monetizing existing franchises effectively, as demonstrated by the success of "Zootopia 2" [39][40][42] - Upcoming films include "Moana Live Action," "Mandalorian," "The Devil Wears Prada 2," and "Toy Story 5," which are expected to drive significant revenue [43] Sports Segment - ESPN is transitioning to a digital future, enhancing engagement through direct-to-consumer products and integrating with the NFL for increased content and engagement opportunities [46][52] - The NFL agreement is expected to enhance ESPN's offerings and engagement, particularly through fantasy football and additional game broadcasts [52][54] Experiences Segment - Disney is investing $60 billion into its experiences segment, with high demand and capacity utilization indicating strong potential returns [61][62] - The focus is on enhancing in-person experiences, particularly in parks and cruises, which are seen as unique offerings in the market [62] Capital Allocation and Share Repurchase - Disney does not foresee the need for significant M&A, focusing instead on leveraging existing IP and capabilities [68][69] - A $7 billion stock buyback is planned, with strong cash generation expected to continue, supporting shareholder returns [70][72] Conclusion - The conference highlighted Disney's strategic focus on leadership stability, a straightforward business model, growth in streaming and experiences, and a commitment to shareholder returns, positioning the company for sustained growth in the coming years [73][74]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 63.21 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 23% [5] - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to reach 22.53 billion yuan in 2027, with a year-on-year growth of 25% [5] - The investment value of the company is anticipated to be reassessed due to its excellent business model and long-term user growth potential [5] Financial Projections - Revenue Forecast: - 2023A: 6,345 million yuan - 2024A: 13,038 million yuan (36% growth) - 2025E: 40,484 million yuan (105% growth) - 2026E: 52,364 million yuan (29% growth) - 2027E: 64,214 million yuan (23% growth) [3] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2023A: 1,082 million yuan - 2024A: 3,125 million yuan (108% growth) - 2025E: 14,293 million yuan (170% growth) - 2026E: 18,018 million yuan (26% growth) - 2027E: 22,530 million yuan (25% growth) [3] - Earnings Per Share: - 2023A: 0.81 yuan - 2024A: 2.33 yuan - 2025E: 10.65 yuan - 2026E: 13.43 yuan - 2027E: 16.79 yuan [3] - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: - 2023A: 252.1 - 2024A: 87.3 - 2025E: 19.1 - 2026E: 15.1 - 2027E: 12.1 [3] - Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: - 2023A: 35.1 - 2024A: 25.5 - 2025E: 10.9 - 2026E: 6.3 - 2027E: 4.2 [3] Business Model Insights - The company is compared to Disney and Netflix, highlighting its potential to build a comprehensive IP ecosystem [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of user scale as a foundation for monetization and valuation expansion [5] - The company is positioned to leverage its IP platform for long-term growth, with a focus on user engagement and ecosystem development [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for the company, projecting significant revenue and profit growth driven by its IP platform, which is compared to industry giants like Disney and Netflix [5] - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of 404.84 billion, 523.64 billion, and 642.14 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 211%, 29%, and 23% respectively [5] - Adjusted net profits are forecasted to be 142.93 billion, 180.18 billion, and 225.30 billion yuan for the same years, with year-on-year growth rates of 347%, 26%, and 25% [5] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 6,345 million yuan - 2024A: 13,038 million yuan (36% growth) - 2025E: 40,484 million yuan (105% growth) - 2026E: 52,364 million yuan (211% growth) - 2027E: 64,214 million yuan (29% growth) [3] - Net profit projections are: - 2023A: 1,082 million yuan - 2024A: 3,125 million yuan (108% growth) - 2025E: 14,293 million yuan (170% growth) - 2026E: 18,018 million yuan (347% growth) - 2027E: 22,530 million yuan (26% growth) [3] - Earnings per share are projected to increase from 0.81 yuan in 2023 to 16.79 yuan in 2027 [3] Business Model and Competitive Position - The company is positioned as a leading player in the IP market, with a business model that effectively combines content creation, distribution, and consumer engagement [5] - The report highlights the importance of user growth as a key driver for valuation expansion, indicating that a robust user base is essential for monetization [5] - The company’s business model is noted for its potential to generate long-term user growth and investment value, suggesting that the market has yet to fully recognize this potential [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a current price of $102.38 and a fair value of $127.17 [5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that Disney has built a robust business model through a combination of content production, diverse distribution channels, and offline experiences, creating a closed-loop commercial ecosystem [7]. - Disney's strategy has shifted from focusing solely on growth to enhancing quality and profitability, particularly in its D2C (Direct-to-Consumer) segment, which has seen significant investment despite lower profit margins compared to traditional television [7]. - The experience business, including theme parks and cruise lines, is highlighted as a unique competitive advantage, contributing significantly to revenue and operating profit [7]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach $102.1 billion in fiscal year 2026, with a growth rate of 8%, and $107.3 billion in fiscal year 2027, with a growth rate of 5% [4]. - Net income is expected to be $10.7 billion in fiscal year 2026, reflecting a -14% change, and $11.9 billion in fiscal year 2027, with a 10% increase [4]. - The report anticipates an EPS of $5.95 for fiscal year 2026 and $6.57 for fiscal year 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17x and 15x [4]. Business Segments - Disney's primary business segments include entertainment (cable networks, D2C streaming, and content production), sports (primarily ESPN), and experiences (theme parks, resorts, and cruise lines) [26][28]. - The entertainment segment remains the largest revenue contributor, while the experience segment is crucial for profit, achieving a profit margin of 28% compared to 11% for entertainment and 16% for sports [28]. Historical Context - Disney's evolution is marked by three key phases: the early animation and theme park development, the revival under Michael Eisner with a focus on animation and cable television, and the recent era of acquisitions and streaming service expansion under Bob Iger [18][22][23]. - The company has successfully integrated acquisitions like Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm, enhancing its IP portfolio and overall market position [23][43].