Mexican equity capital markets are poised to bounce back next year once trade uncertainty with the US clears up, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Mexico chief https://t.co/XemiZ3GoBs ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The US Treasury yield curve twist - flattened last week. Stronger - than - expected services PMI and declining initial claims reduced the possibility of near - term rate cuts. Trade developments decreased trade uncertainties and fueled risk - on sentiment, leading to UST selloffs. Trump shifted his strategy regarding the Fed. Looking ahead, the Fed is expected to hold rates in July, but may be open to a September cut. The US Treasury is expected to maintain current coupon issuance sizes and potentially increase long - end buybacks [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Secondary Market Recap - The US Treasury yield curve twist - flattened last week. Manufacturing PMI was disappointing, but services PMI was stronger - than - expected and initial claims declined, reducing the chance of near - term rate cuts. Trump reached trade agreements with Japan, the Philippines, and the EU. Japan's auto sector got tariff relief after pledging $550bn investment in the US. Reduced trade uncertainty promoted risk - on sentiment and led to UST selloffs. Trump changed his approach towards the Fed [3][4] - This week, the focus is on the July FOMC meeting and QRA. The Fed is expected to hold rates with Waller and Bowman dissenting. Tariff - induced price pressures and Trump's tariff increase support Powell's patient approach to rate cuts. However, the Fed may signal openness to a September cut. The US Treasury is expected to keep current coupon issuance sizes and guidelines unchanged and may increase long - end buybacks [4][5][6] - Yields on 2 - year and 5 - year Treasury notes rose 5bp and 1bp respectively, while 10 - year yield fell 3bp. China's credit bonds performed well, with China IG and HY bonds strengthening 3bp and 13bp respectively. China CDS and iTraxx Asia ex - Japan IG CDS tightened 2bps and 3bps respectively [2][7][12] Sector Performance - Financial sector mostly strengthened. AMC spreads compressed further. CFAMCI led gains, and China CITIC Financial AMC's stake increase in China Everbright Bank was credit - positive. CCAMCL 30s tightened to a historical low. In leasing, FRESHK 28s tightened, and the sale of Seaco by Bohai Leasing could drive AVOL spreads tighter. FWDGHDs performed strongly, and AT1s were mixed [8][13] - Tech sector was mixed. After SAMR's regulation on promotions, BABA 35s and JD 30s tightened, while MEITUA 30s widened. AACTEC 31s outperformed with 5bps of tightening [9][14] - Other IG Bonds were generally quiet. HAOHUA 30s and SINOCH 31s held flat. China's new dam project in Tibet may benefit Power Construction Corp of China. CHPWCN perps rose, and HXCEME 25s was lifted. CNMDHL 30s and ZHOSHK 28s widened. In HK IG, COSCO requested rights in the Hutchison Ports deal, Hutchison Port's profit increased, and CKHH curve tightened [10][14] - High - yield corporate sector was relatively quiet. VNKRLE 27s added 0.5pts. NWDEVL bonds were range - bound. West China Cement expected an 80% - 100% YoY jump in 1H25 profit, and its 2026s rose nearly 4pts [11][15] Primary Market - China Mengniu Diary issued 3.5bn offshore RMB sustainable bonds, with 5 - year and 10 - year bonds priced at 2% and 2.3% respectively, significantly narrower than the initial guidance. The market认购 was enthusiastic, with the 5 - year and 10 - year bonds having final subscription amounts of 8.9bn RMB and 9.2bn RMB respectively [16][21]

Summary of the European Central Bank Update / Briefing July 24, 2025 Industry Overview - The briefing pertains to the European Central Bank (ECB) and its monetary policy decisions in the context of the Eurozone economy. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Interest Rates Unchanged**: The ECB decided to keep the three key interest rates unchanged, maintaining a focus on stabilizing inflation at the 2% medium-term target [2][16][75]. 2. **Current Inflation Status**: Inflation is currently at 2%, aligning with the ECB's target, with domestic pressures easing as wage growth slows [2][7][8]. 3. **Economic Resilience**: The Eurozone economy has shown resilience despite global challenges, supported by strong private consumption and investment, although firms are hesitant to invest due to geopolitical uncertainties and trade disputes [3][5][6][31]. 4. **Unemployment Rate**: The unemployment rate stood at 6.3% in May, close to its lowest since the euro's introduction, indicating a robust labor market [6]. 5. **Inflation Dynamics**: Annual inflation was reported at 2% in June, with energy prices rising but still lower than the previous year. Food price inflation eased to 3.1% [7][8]. 6. **Wage Growth Trends**: Year-on-year growth in compensation per employee slowed to 3.8% in Q1, down from 4.1% in the previous quarter, indicating moderating labor costs [8][30]. 7. **Risks to Economic Growth**: Risks remain tilted to the downside, including global trade tensions, geopolitical conflicts, and potential financial market sentiment deterioration [11][12][39]. 8. **Monetary Policy Approach**: The ECB will adopt a data-dependent approach, assessing inflation outlooks and risks on a meeting-by-meeting basis without pre-committing to a specific rate path [4][16][75]. 9. **Credit Conditions**: Easier financing conditions are supporting domestic demand, with the average interest rate on new loans to firms declining to 3.7% in May [14][15]. 10. **Future Projections**: The ECB anticipates that if trade and geopolitical tensions are resolved swiftly, it could improve sentiment and spur economic activity [11][12][55]. Additional Important Content 1. **Digital Euro Development**: The ECB is focused on developing a digital euro to respond to evolving payment preferences, emphasizing the importance of maintaining currency issuance protection [51][66]. 2. **Market Reactions**: The ECB acknowledges market expectations for potential rate cuts but emphasizes that decisions will be based on data and economic developments [72][75]. 3. **Liquidity in the System**: Despite a reduction in liquidity due to various factors, the ECB maintains that there is still ample liquidity in the system, exceeding €2 trillion [60][61]. 4. **Trade Negotiations Impact**: The ECB is closely monitoring ongoing trade negotiations, indicating that resolution of uncertainties could significantly influence economic behavior and decision-making [20][24][49][55]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the ECB's briefing, highlighting the current economic landscape, monetary policy stance, and future outlook for the Eurozone.

SAP SE Chief Executive Officer Christian Klein discusses the company's performance as cloud and software revenue increased 11% to €7.97 billion ($9.4 billion) in the period ended June 30. He also discusses tariff uncertainty and demand for artificial intelligence. Klein speaks on Bloomberg Television. 00:00 - SAP CEO Christian Klein on earnings 01:13 - Tariff, trade uncertainty 03:51 - Weaker USD impact on SAP, business, pipeline 05:20 - AI demand, deals, business AI surge in 2026 -------- More on Bloomberg ...

Core Insights - Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) reported second-quarter 2025 earnings of $2.01 per share, a decrease from $2.72 in the same quarter last year, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.05 [1][10] - Net sales for the quarter were approximately $4,565.1 million, down about 1.5% year over year, also missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4,627 million [1][10] Financial Performance - Steel operations net sales were $3,275.6 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of around 4.6% [3] - Steel shipments totaled approximately 3.3 million tons, slightly below the estimate of 3.34 million tons [3] - The average external product selling price for steel was $1,134 per ton, down from $1,138 in the previous year but up from $998 in the prior quarter, exceeding the estimate of $1,061 per ton [3] - Metal recycling operations generated net sales of $522.7 million, up about 1.1% year over year, with ferrous shipments of around 1.59 million gross tons, a 5.7% increase year over year, though below the estimate of 1.78 million gross tons [4] - Steel fabrication operations reported sales of approximately $340.6 million, down roughly 28% year over year, with shipments of 135,347 tons, a decline of about 14.9% year over year, missing the estimate of 150,193 tons [5] Financial Position - The company ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $458 million, a decrease of around 44.8% year over year [6] - Long-term debt rose to $3,779.6 million, an increase of roughly 70.8% from the previous year [6] - Cash flow from operations was $301.6 million, down about 21.2% year over year [6] Market Outlook - The company anticipates a mitigation of trade uncertainties and tax impacts, with hopes for an improved interest rate environment and a decline in unfairly traded imports, which could support pricing and demand [7] - The U.S. International Trade Commission's preliminary determinations on coated flat rolled steel are expected to enhance operating platforms, although final determinations are pending [7] - The aluminum teams are projected to increase volumes, with expected exit utilization rates of 40-50% in 2025 and 75% in 2026 [8] Stock Performance - Shares of Steel Dynamics have increased by 6.9% over the past year, contrasting with a 24.7% decline in its industry [9]

Group 1 - The article discusses a significant downturn in the market, characterized as one of the steepest in history, driven by high valuations and trade uncertainties [1] - There is an emphasis on the unpredictability of trade impacts, highlighting concerns about the extent of potential negative outcomes [1] Group 2 - The content does not provide specific company or industry insights, focusing instead on general market conditions and analyst disclosures [2]

German factory orders dropped for the first time in four months as businesses at home were wary of committing to large investments before uncertainty over trade with the US is resolved https://t.co/PI6taon7mn ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral outlook on the economy, with no changes to the baseline outlook despite recent court rulings affecting tariffs [8][12]. Core Insights - Trade policy remains uncertain due to the recent ruling against IEEPA-based tariffs, but the administration may still recreate its tariff structure under different legal authorities [10][11]. - Immigration estimates have been revised down, projecting 800,000 for this year and 500,000 for next year, which will contribute to slower population and labor force growth [21][22]. - Potential growth is expected to decline to 2.0% this year and possibly 1.5% next year, influenced by low immigration and its effects on labor market dynamics [8][31]. Summary by Sections Trade Policy - The US Court of International Trade ruled against IEEPA-based tariffs, creating uncertainty in trade policy, but the administration may utilize other legislative authorities to maintain tariff structures [9][10]. - The effective tariff rate could decrease if IEEPA tariffs are removed, impacting duties collected in fiscal year 2025 [13][14]. Immigration and Labor Market - Immigration is projected to slow, with a revised outlook of 800,000 this year and 500,000 next year, leading to tighter labor market conditions despite slower employment growth [21][22]. - The breakeven employment rate has been adjusted down to 90,000 for 2025, indicating that lower immigration will make it harder to push the unemployment rate higher [27][29]. Economic Growth - The potential growth rate has returned to pre-pandemic averages around 2.0%, with expectations of further decline due to immigration restrictions [31][32]. - The neutral interest rate is estimated to be lower, around 80 basis points, reflecting slower potential growth and the implications for future monetary policy [32][33]. GDP and Spending - Recent data indicates a cooling economy, with Q1 GDP growth revised to -0.2% and personal consumption growth revised down to 1.2% [15][16][17]. - The labor market shows signs of moderation, with initial jobless claims remaining stable but continuing claims reaching the highest post-pandemic level [18][19].

Market Performance - The S&P 500 gained 6.1% in May, marking its best performance since an 8.9% rise in November two years ago [2] Employment and Labor Market - Economists expect a gain of 130,000 in nonfarm payrolls for May, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.2% [5] - Wells Fargo economists indicate that May's employment report will reflect the labor market's response to recent trade uncertainties, with hiring appetite among firms remaining low [6][7] - New job postings on Indeed fell to their lowest level since 2020 in May, and hiring plans among small businesses are near cycle lows [7] Earnings Reports - Broadcom is expected to report a 43% year-over-year increase in profit and nearly 20% growth in revenue, driven by AI-related demand and strong semiconductor positioning [8] - CrowdStrike is anticipated to post EPS of $0.66 on revenue of $1.11 billion, with RBC analysts expressing optimism for software stocks in 2025 [10] Bond Market Concerns - Jamie Dimon warns of a potential crack in the bond market due to rising federal debt, urging the government to take remedial measures [11][12] - Dimon suggests that the timeline for a potential crisis could range from six months to six years [13] EV Market Performance - XPeng reported May deliveries of 33,525 Smart EVs, a 230% year-over-year increase, and a year-to-date total of 162,578 Smart EVs, up 293% [13] - Li Auto delivered 40,856 vehicles, up 16.66% year-over-year, while NIO delivered 23,231 vehicles, a 13.1% year-over-year increase [14] Financial Market Outlook - BofA indicates that financial markets are at a high-stakes inflection point, with risk assets poised for a significant move, either a breakout or a breakdown [16]

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) monthly report indicates that trade uncertainties are expected to exert pressure on the global economy, which will indirectly affect oil demand [1] Industry Summary - Trade uncertainties are anticipated to create challenges for the global economy, leading to a potential decline in oil demand [1]