live. It's time now for the big picture. Let's welcome in Colin Martin, director and fixed income strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Researcher.Very good morning to you, Colin. Thank you so much for joining me today. What is the fixed income market telling you about how people are feeling about day seven of this government shutdown.>> I'd say the fixed income markets are saying that thing things are okay right now. We're not necessarily seeing any sort of flight to quality, similar to what we're seeing ...

It's Andy Brener, head of international fixed income at National Alliance. Joining us now as part of our bond report. Andy, great to have you back on.Is Japan just like a political fight about the next prime minister or is Japan and maybe others telling us a larger story about global markets. Brian, thanks for having me on as always. I think it's telling us a larger story.this new prime minister is is is a fiscal is someone that really wants to use fiscal stimulus and the bond mark the Japanese bond market ...

My, oh my. State Street is adding high-yield bond ETFs to its MyIncome bond ladder fund suite. The firm is prepping five target-maturity exchange-traded funds, according to paperwork recently filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. It’s a small product category with only iShares and Invesco having high-yield target-maturity ETFs on the market. The kicker is that State Street’s forthcoming ETFs will be actively managed, adding to a product line that debuted last year, including corporate and mun ...

Paul McCauley, former chief economist at PIMCO and an adjunct professor at Georgetown University's Mcdana School of Business joins us now. Paul, it's great to get your take on this. I mean, we have this data vacuum ahead of us most likely.There has actually been some balanced, maybe even hawkish Fed speak since the last Fed decision. Uh, and yet you think that the path is clearer toward further rate cuts. Why is that.Yeah, I uh don't think the shutdown is a good thing from the standpoint of democracy. It's ...

Deposit account rates are on the decline — but the good news is you can lock in a competitive return on a certificate of deposit (CD) today and preserve your earning power. In fact, the best CDs still pay rates above 4%. Read on for a snapshot of CD rates today and where to find the best offers. Where are the best CD rates today? CDs today typically offer rates significantly higher than traditional savings accounts. Currently, the best short-term CDs (six to 12 months) generally offer rates around 4% to ...

Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data is complicating Wall Street’s hopes for rapid Fed rate cuts. Weekly jobless claims fell, and Q2 GDP grew 3.8%, suggesting resilience even as inflation hovers near 3%, above the Fed’s 2% target. That has pushed Treasury yields higher and weighed on tech stocks, with Vanguard’s Kevin Khang warning the path to sustained cuts remains “narrow.” U.S. economic data keeps coming back stronger than expected, and frankly it’s raining on the parade for markets. For the ...

Financial Sector Overview - Financials have gained over 7% in the past three months, driven by the Fed's rate cut and expectations of more cuts to come [1][2] - The current environment is favorable for banks, with a healthy spread between short-term deposits and lending at 6%, indicating a positive outlook for the yield curve [3] Bank Performance and Strategy - Different banks have varying exposures, with larger banks like Bank of America focusing on consumer exposure and regional banks like First Citizens excelling in shareholder value creation [4][6] - First Citizens has bought back 11% of its shares over the past year and has a $4 billion buyback plan in place, indicating strong capital management [7] Capital Markets and M&A Activity - The capital markets environment is healthy, with firms like Goldman Sachs showing strong performance and a positive outlook for M&A activity [7] - The regulatory environment is easing, encouraging strategic sponsors to pursue deals, which bodes well for investment banking and capital markets [7] Consumer Credit and Economic Indicators - Current trends in consumer credit appear healthy, with positive data from American Express and Capital One, alongside strong retail sales figures [8][9] - While there are some pockets of stress, the overall consumer outlook remains optimistic, particularly among larger banks [9]

分组1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates, with a 97-98% probability for a 25 basis point cut, and the market is curious about the dot plot indicating the endpoint of the rate-cutting cycle [4][5][12] - The yield curve remains flat, with a ten-year rate at 4.03% and a three-month rate at 3.97%, leading to questions about the attractiveness of long-term bonds [6][14] - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting is anticipated to influence interest rate differentials, potentially strengthening the yen if the BOJ commits to future rate hikes [7][8] 分组2 - Nvidia faces challenges as China restricts chip sales, which could negatively impact its stock and the broader market due to its significant weighting in the S&P 500 [9][10] - The current tech market shows high concentration risk, with a significant portion of the S&P 500 being driven by a few large tech stocks, raising concerns about the sustainability of this trend [26][28] - The healthcare sector is viewed as undervalued, with companies like UnitedHealthcare and Zoetis being highlighted as attractive investment opportunities due to their strong fundamentals and growth potential [57][59][61] 分组3 - The discussion emphasizes the importance of understanding valuation metrics specific to different sectors, as well as the need for a long-term investment perspective [63][66] - Investors are encouraged to focus on long-term themes and growth opportunities, particularly in sectors that may be overlooked due to current market trends [66][70] - The market is characterized by confusion and volatility, with mechanical factors influencing price movements more than fundamental data [75][79]

The yield curve will reveal the bond market's confidence in how the U.S. is handling monetary policy. ...

Group 1: Valuation and Market Performance - The current trading valuation for banks is around two times tangible book value, which is higher than recent historical levels, but this is not seen as a concern due to potential for continued outperformance [1][2] - The cyclical high for banks was noted at 2.2 times tangible book value in January 2018, indicating that there is still room for growth in valuations [2][3] - There is a significant discrepancy in performance among banks, with Citigroup up 40% this year compared to Bank of America and Wells Fargo, which are up 14% [7] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The regulatory outlook for banks is considered the best in decades, with expectations of increased profitability leading to higher valuations [3] - Recent changes in regulatory leadership suggest a less onerous approach, with new proposals expected to be more favorable for large banks [4][5] - The new Fed chair is anticipated to support economic growth, which could benefit banks through lower interest rates without triggering high inflation [6] Group 3: Interest Rate Environment - The current interest rate environment is favorable for banks, with potential Fed cuts of 50 to 75 basis points expected in the next three to six months [10] - A steep yield curve with a Fed funds rate above 3% has not been seen in over 20 years, allowing banks to benefit from low-cost deposits while lending at higher rates [11] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Citigroup is viewed as a turnaround story, successfully exiting unprofitable businesses and focusing on profitability, which has made it more attractive to investors [8] - Goldman Sachs is performing well in capital markets, benefiting from increased IPOs and merger and acquisition activity, indicating a positive outlook for the company [12]