Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is perceived to have room for changes that could enhance the velocity of the financial system [1][2] - Current borrowing practices indicate that the overnight funds rate is less relevant, suggesting a need for stability in the back end of the yield curve to support mortgage rates and existing home sales [2][3] - A proposed adjustment to the funds rate is to set it at 3%, which could align with market expectations and inflation break-even rates [3][4] Group 2 - The discussion emphasizes the importance of addressing mispricing in the markets to achieve a more favorable rate environment [4] - There is a belief that after adjusting the rate, further evaluations should be made to determine if additional changes are necessary [4]

Double Line Capital founder and CEO Jeffrey Gunllock on this incredibly important day in the markets. Jeffrey, it is only fitting that you are here with us yet again. Welcome back.>> Thanks, Scott. Thanks for having me back again. I think this is our 38th time after Fed Day or 39th.I'm starting to lose count. >> All right. Well, I'm glad we have continu continued the the tradition.I really hit on that uh at the top. December is not a foregone conclusion. Far from it.Um, Chair Pal went out of his way. >> Yea ...

Core Insights - The discussion highlights the impact of tariffs on inflation, particularly in the appliance sector, where prices increased by 3.3% in the first seven months of this year compared to a 6% decrease in the same period last year, indicating a direct correlation with tariffs [2] - There is a bullish sentiment towards gold as a diversifier in investment portfolios, with central banks purchasing approximately 1,000 tons of gold annually over the last three years, which is double the previous decade's pace [4] - Retail and institutional investors are increasingly turning to gold as a complementary diversifier, especially during market downturns, where gold has historically performed better than Bitcoin during significant S&P 500 declines [5][6] Economic Indicators - The current economic environment shows a higher 10-year yield following Federal Reserve cuts, contrasting with historical trends where yields would typically decrease during economic slowdowns [7][8] - Inflation remains elevated, with core PCE projected at 2.9% for August, and GDP growth is reported to be over 3% for the third quarter, indicating a robust economy despite a slowing labor market [9][10]

Fed Policy & Interest Rates - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut, but there may be three Fed voters dissenting, potentially advocating for a 50 basis point cut [1] - The market will closely monitor the Fed's summary of economic projections, particularly the dot plot, to gauge the expected policy rate for the current and subsequent years [2] - The market is pricing in nearly 150 basis points of cuts for the next year, expecting the Fed to go below 3%, which may be difficult for the Fed to indicate [3] - The market expects the Fed to cut rates drastically, anticipating a new Fed chair next year to aggressively save the cycle and prolong the expansion [11][12] Bond Market Dynamics - The president's influence on the Fed is priced into the term premium, which is the value in extending out the bond curve [4] - Forward rates indicate that the market expects 10-year Treasury yields to be close to 550 basis points (55%) in 10 years, the highest in over 20 years [5] - The market may be pricing in too much term premium, as 550 basis points (55%) growth for the next 20 years is unlikely [6] - The market is already pricing in the Fed getting back to its 2% inflation target [13] Economic Conditions & Inflation - The economy is showing a two-speed dynamic, with high-income consumers continuing to spend, making the inflation story tricky [8] - Core inflation, excluding shelter, grew at 270 basis points (27%) last month, the highest level in the last two years, indicating high-income consumers are doing well [9] - Small businesses are suffering due to high interest rates, leading to firing and a higher unemployment rate [9] - Tariff policies and immigration could lead to stagflationary conditions, with lower growth and higher inflation [14]

What is going on. Let's answer that question with Andy Brener, head of International Fixed Income at National Alliance. He puts out must-read market commentary, and he joins us now.Andy, it's great to have you back on the program. It's been too long. What is happening with global fixed income markets.Brian, it's it's a new month and uh what you have is a lot of supply coming. You have supply coming all throughout Europe and you have supply today in the in the corporate markets. We counted about 25 deals tod ...

Labor Market & Inflation - The labor market is slowing down, potentially due to headwinds from tariffs and trade wars [2][7] - PCE inflation is at 29%, the highest level since February, while the Fed's target is 2% [3] - Inflation expectations one year out are predicting 34%, significantly higher than the 2% target [9] - A quarter of a million less jobs than previously expected in May and June [6] Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - The Fed faces a dilemma: whether to focus on the weaker labor market (suggesting rate cuts) or rising inflation (suggesting rate hikes) [4] - Chris Waller suggests focusing on the labor market [4] - The market is pricing in more rate cuts than the Fed may be able to deliver due to persistent inflation [8][10] - GDP on the second read came in at 33% [5] Market Dynamics - The stock market's performance is largely driven by the AI story and the "Magnificent 7," which constitute 40% of the index [11][12] - Nvidia alone accounts for 8% of the S&P 500, an unprecedented concentration for a single stock in the last 50 years [12][13] - The bond market narrative is focused on inflation and the labor market, presenting an inconsistent picture compared to the stock market [13] - The yield curve is steepening, partly due to inflation and fiscal challenges, raising concerns that the Fed might accept permanently higher inflation [9][13]

Interest Rate & Fed Policy - Potential changes in the Federal Reserve leadership, including the possibility of Lisa Cook being replaced, could influence the market's perception of interest rate policies [1] - The market anticipates that President Trump will appoint someone who favors lower interest rates when Powell's term ends next year [2] - The yield curve is steepening due to expectations of short-term rate cuts, which ironically could increase inflationary pressure in the long run [3] - The focus is on whether inflation is under control, given that governments globally have significant debt and desire lower yields to reduce debt servicing costs [8] - Rate cutting cycles have historically been negative for the equity market, with major corrections or bear markets occurring in six out of the last eight instances [9][10] Inflation & Bond Market - Despite pressure to lower rates, inflation may persist and could become a long-term issue [4] - The gap between the 2-year and 30-year Treasury yields has widened to its largest in several years [4] - If rate cuts stimulate inflation, long-term yields are expected to rise [7] - The bond market may challenge the Fed's policies by selling off, leading to higher yields [13] Global Economic Context - The trend of focusing on inflation being not under control and governments having massive debt piles is happening globally [8] - The Bank of England cut rates, but now they have inflation at an 18-month high, and bond yields have been rising [11] - There is a good chance that a rate-cutting cycle could be initiated because things are breaking down globally [12]

All right, welcome back. The July Federal Reserve minute shedding a little bit of light into the committee's conversations about where interest rates might go. Two members calling for cuts and now the focus of course shifting to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.Rick Santelli joining us now. Rick, you put out a note to us internally about this. On one hand, they're talking about inflation and on the other hand, they're talking about weaker jobs.That's a tough combo. It i ...

Alternative Investments and Private Credit Market - Marathon Asset Management has over $23 billion in assets under management, attracting investments from family offices, wealth channels, insurance channels, and institutional channels [1] - Direct lending and asset-based lending yield 11-12%, while opportunistic credit yields 14-16%, making them more appealing than public credit markets [2][3] - Public credit markets show tight spreads, with investment grade corporate credit at the tightest spread since the 1990s, around the 0 percentile [3] - The high yield bond index OAS (Option-Adjusted Spread) is inside of 300, indicating tight spreads due to a strong economy, corporate earnings, and demand for credit [4][5] Asset-Based Lending (ABL) vs Direct Lending - Asset-based lending (ABL) is lending against hard assets at 65% LTVs, uncorrelated to direct lending which is cash flow based on EBITDA [6] - The correlation coefficient between asset-based lending and direct lending is 04, indicating low correlation despite both being high-yielding asset classes [7] Interest Rate and Economic Outlook - The speaker believes the Fed was slow to raise rates and will be slow to lower them, potentially easing in September 17th after reviewing jobs and CPI reports [9][10] - The current yield curve is V-shaped with SOFR at 435, 3-month bills at 420, 2-year bills at 375, and 10-year notes at 428, which is not normalized and increases government financing costs [11][12] - The speaker suggests the normalized rate for Fed funds should be 3%, given the slowing job growth (35 jobs a month) and economic growth (12% in the first half of the year) [13][14] - The speaker's base case is that economic growth will pick up in the second half of the year, with the front end of the yield curve having 150 basis points to come down [17]

Federal Reserve Policy & Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady this week, with a potential rate cut in September [1] - Survey data indicates a 27% expectation for a rate cut, despite 100% believing there will be no cut in July [1] - The chance of recession has fallen to 31%, down from 38% in June and 53% in May [2] - Current rate outlook anticipates approximately two rate cuts this year and two more next year [2] - The market is pricing in 100 basis points of cuts, but the 10-year forecast only goes down to 425 basis points, suggesting a steepening of the curve [10][11] - Easing to come will be a recalibration of bringing down the policy rate and in the process resloping the yield curve, potentially another 100 basis points down to 338 basis points [13] Potential Fed Chair Candidates - The race to replace Fed Chair Jay Powell is a three-way tie between Kevin Walsh (24%), Scott Besson (24%), and Hasset (22%) [1][3] - Fed Governor Waller is also a candidate, polling at 14% [3] - Scott Besson suggests a new Fed chair could be picked as early as December [3] - Paul McCaulay advocates for Governor Chris Waller, citing his monetary policy scholarship, experience as a Fed governor, and sound economic principles [5][6][7] Potential Dissent - There is an expectation that Governor Waller and Fed Vice Chair of Supervision Michelle Bowman could dissent with the decision not to cut rates [8] - A double dissent from Fed governors hasn't been seen since 1993 [9]