德国总理默茨：关税问题上存在迹象显示美国可能有意与欧盟达成协议。 ...

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/5/16 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本公 ...

由个股看，美容护理板块领涨，食品饮料、化学制药等板块表现也相对稍好，而软件开发、互联网服 务、电源设备、半导体、多元金融、证券板块跌幅相对稍多。 周边市场方面，隔夜美股三大股指涨跌互现，道琼斯指数小跌，标普500小涨几乎持平，而纳指涨 0.72%，纳指已是连续三天显著上涨。周四港股回落，恒指跌0.79%，恒生科技指数跌1.56%。 本周四A股全线回落，截至收盘，上证综指跌0.68%至3380.82点；深综指跌1.37%，创业板综指跌 1.77%，科创50指数跌1.26%，北证50指数跌0.38%。 自中美达成关税协议后，美股于周一跳空暴涨，但其后仅纳指表现强势，以蓝筹股为主的道指及标普 500相对疲弱。纳指之所以表现远强于道指及标普500，主因是美股的科技股这两天的利好较多。 汇市方面，周三美元探低后回升，但周四亚欧交易时段又下跌，两天来整体上仍跌了一些。人民币汇率 周三有所贬值，周四则大致持稳，至傍晚时段，离岸人民币汇率暂于7.2080附近波动。 中美贸易摩擦对国际金融市场的影响大致上已暂告一段落，但投资者可能很难彻底放心，这应该也是股 市在上冲了一程就失去动能的重要原因之一。未来90天的谈判时间窗口不能算 ...

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/5/14 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本公 ...

2025年05月14日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：中美贸易取得进展 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡回落 | 3 | | 铜：情绪改善，价格上涨 | 5 | | 铝：震荡上行 | 7 | | 氧化铝：大幅反弹 | 7 | | 锌：短期宏观支撑 | 9 | | 铅：供需双弱，震荡运行 | 10 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 11 | | 镍：消息面扰动情绪，基本面变化有限 | 13 | | 不锈钢：社会库存边际累增，盘面成本预期支撑 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：需求改善有限叠加矿价暂未止跌，偏弱震荡格局或延续 | 15 | | 工业硅：整体弱势基本面 | 17 | | 多晶硅：市场消息扰动，关注现货报价 | 17 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：宏观情绪扰动，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：宏观情绪扰动，锰硅宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：一轮提降发起，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤：煤矿库存增加，震 ...

季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei015111@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 78,090 | -0.22% | 78650 | 0.72% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,625 | 1.29% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 90,876 | -34,221 | 181,940 | -5,790 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 10,175 | 2,025 | 290,000 | -1,454 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 29,157 | 9,073 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 189,650 | -1,100 | 42.86% | -0.24% | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | 较前日变动 ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Insights - Citigroup has lowered its short-term gold price target to $3,150 per ounce, expecting gold to consolidate in the $3,000-$3,300 range in the coming months [1] - Goldman Sachs indicates that mid-term risks for oil prices are skewed to the downside, predicting Brent and WTI crude prices to average $60 and $56 per barrel respectively in 2025, based on strong global supply growth and demand slowdown [2] - Goldman Sachs also forecasts that OPEC+ will stop increasing oil production starting in August due to slowing economic activity and weak oil demand [3] Group 2: Trade and Currency Implications - Nomura has upgraded Chinese stocks to "tactical overweight" following an unexpected U.S.-China tariff agreement, which is expected to support positive risk sentiment in global markets [1] - Deutsche Bank notes that the recent easing of the global trade war has an unclear impact on the U.S. dollar, suggesting that positive trade news benefits global economic growth more than the U.S. itself [4] - CICC suggests that if tariffs are further reduced, the Federal Reserve may have the opportunity to cut interest rates in the latter half of the year to alleviate growth pressures [5] Group 3: Domestic Market Developments - CITIC Securities expects that the issuance of new special bonds will exceed 1 trillion in both the second and third quarters of 2025, driven by a more accommodative monetary policy [10] - CITIC Securities maintains a positive outlook on the U.S. internet sector over the next 6-12 months, anticipating strong performance from major internet companies despite potential adjustments due to tariff policy changes [11] - Deutsche Bank's chief economist emphasizes a bullish outlook on A-shares, focusing on three main lines: domestic demand, trade recovery, and technology [12]

Group 1 - Japanese Finance Minister Kato Katsunobu indicated that if a meeting with US Treasury Secretary Yellen occurs, there is a possibility of discussing tariff agreements [1] - Kato stated that he would not comment on exchange rate levels [1]

Group 1 - The US and China have reached a temporary agreement to suspend mutual tariffs of 24% for 90 days, with both sides agreeing to cancel or suspend a total of 91% of tariffs on each other's goods [3][5][4] - Following the announcement, the US dollar index rose by 0.62%, while gold prices fell by approximately 2.18%, indicating market reactions to the easing of trade tensions [3][5] - Analysts suggest that the 90-day suspension provides both parties with more negotiation time, potentially leading to a more stable economic relationship in the long term [5] Group 2 - There are reports that state-owned investors no longer trust the founding team of Neta Auto, with speculation about Toyota's interest in acquiring the company, although both parties have denied these rumors [7][8] - Neta Auto's financial issues have raised concerns among its investors, leading to written inquiries about its operational status and financial health [8] - The company has faced scrutiny over its operational capabilities and funding, with significant stakeholders expressing doubts about its future [7][8] Group 3 - Hisense's Vidda brand has been found guilty of commercial defamation against Xiaomi, resulting in a court ruling that requires Vidda to publish a statement to mitigate the damage caused [9][10] - The court ruled that Vidda's marketing materials contained statements that could mislead the public into associating them with Xiaomi, damaging Xiaomi's reputation [9][10] Group 4 - JD.com has faced allegations of fraudulent practices regarding its "quality dining" restaurants, with reports of unsanitary conditions and misleading certifications [12][13] - The company had previously emphasized that only quality dining establishments would be allowed on its platform, but investigations revealed significant discrepancies in compliance [12][13] Group 5 - The sales of Neta Auto have declined significantly, with a reported drop in net profit exceeding 90%, prompting the company to expand layoffs to 20,000 employees [35][36] - Despite a slight decrease in global sales, the Chinese market has seen a substantial decline of 12.2%, which has adversely affected the overall performance of the company [35][36] Group 6 - Xiaomi's SU7 Ultra has been the subject of debate regarding its pricing strategy, with some advocates suggesting it should be priced higher to attract a more affluent customer base [14][15] - The vehicle's initial pricing strategy has been criticized, with suggestions that a higher price point would filter out less serious buyers [14][15] Group 7 - The cross-border e-commerce platform Kaola has been taken offline, which was previously acquired by Alibaba for $2 billion, indicating a significant shift in the company's operational strategy [6][16] - The app's removal from various platforms marks a notable change in the competitive landscape of cross-border e-commerce in China [6][16] Group 8 - Tesla employees have publicly protested against CEO Elon Musk, leading to the dismissal of one employee who created a website criticizing Musk's leadership [28] - The protest highlights internal dissatisfaction with Musk's management style and its perceived impact on the company's brand and sales [28]

关注关税进展，连粕高位回落 豆粕周报 20250512 正信期货研究院—农产品小组 2 3 主要观点 行情回顾 基本面分析 1 目录 CONTENTS 4 价差跟踪 主要观点 本周豆粕震荡运行。 成本端，美英达成关税协议，英国将加大美农产品进口，或将形成带头效应，利好美豆出口；中美也开始 接触会谈，不过短期或难以达成共识，影响有限。上周美豆出口净销售录得38.7万吨符合预期，支撑美豆震 荡走高；不过USDA干旱报告显示，截至5月6日美豆干旱面积稳定在15%，整体偏低；而阿根廷则上调本年 度大豆产量140万吨至5000万吨，对美豆形成利空。 国内，随着进口大豆通关恢复，油厂开机率逐步增加，豆粕现货供应由紧转松，现货基差大幅回落；当前 油厂大豆及豆粕库存偏低，但即将步入累库周期。 策略：多空交织，美豆震荡运行；国内豆粕供应由紧转松，且5-7月大豆供应充足，油厂开机恢复至正常水 平，压制近月连粕震荡偏弱，不过节后下游存在补库需求，支撑豆粕现货短期偏稳；中长期来看，美豆播 种面积下调基本确定，减产背景下支撑远月豆粕看多情绪；同时中美关税发展对远期美豆存在利多，仍建 议逢低做多远月豆粕。策略上，2900-3000区间低 ...