华盛顿最近上演了一出硬气戏，表面上看，美国拒不服输，强硬应对，但实际上却在悄悄按下了暂停键。美国政府硬扛了几天，最终还是不得不认命。这一 幕并非特朗普突然变得理性，而是美国体制中的刹车片最终发挥了作用。所谓全球关税大战，起初轰轰烈烈，随后却仓促收场，仿佛是用情绪做宏观决策的 典型后果。事情的导火索非常明确——2月20日，美国最高法院以6比3的投票结果裁定，特朗普动用《国际紧急经济权力法》实施大规模关税，属于违宪， 缺乏法律依据。 不过，这场闹剧的结局也确实印证了一个真理——时间，站在了能够应对波动、能够做长期规划的一方。特朗普从宣布加征关税，到海关停止执行，仅仅过 去了一年时间。一场被外界视为全球关税大战的闹剧，便如此草草收场，成为美国贸易政策史上最尴尬的样本。更令人讽刺的是，最终受到伤害的，反而是 美国的传统盟友。英国和澳大利亚原本通过谈判达成了10%的低税率协议，结果被统一拉高到15%。日本和韩国本来享有一定的税率优惠，也在特朗普的一 刀切政策下被抹平。特朗普的全球统一策略，最终惩罚的是他的朋友们，成全的却是他的对手。 这一裁决的焦点并非在于关税是否合理，而是在于拆解权力的基础。一旦这一基础崩塌，即便特朗 ...

近日，特朗普再次成为全球舆论的焦点，他的关税政策被判定为违法。然而，令许多人感到意外的是，特朗普不仅没有因此退缩，反而迅速找到新的理由， 再次决定加税，而且这次的目标是全世界。这个消息一传出，立即引起了轩然大波——从中国到欧洲，再到他曾经的盟友，纷纷表示强烈反对。 与此同时，特朗普计划在3月底访问中国的消息也引发了外界的诸多疑问。为何他在引发全球关税风波的同时，又急于与中国展开高层会谈？这一对比，难 免让人感到困惑。 特朗普的这番举动，难道是为了绝地反击？从表面上看，特朗普的新关税政策似乎充满了强硬气息，但细究之下，却又充满了被动反击的意味。此前，特朗 普通过对等关税的手段，对中国等国征收了超过1750亿美元的关税。然而，最高法院的裁决不仅宣布这一政策违法，还要求美国政府归还相关的税款。面对 财政压力和政治困境，特朗普没有停手，而是找到了新的理由，宣布对全球加征15%的关税。 然而，这项新政策的漏洞和局限性却显而易见。首先，特朗普此举引用的《1974年贸易法》第122条，仅适用于美国面临严重国际收支逆差的情况，而根据 当前的贸易状况，美国并不符合这一条件。这使得新政策的法律基础显得异常脆弱。其次，这项政策的有 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that while the economic cycle is still early, some market valuations are too high, predicting high volatility in AI and tech stocks, with funds continuing to flow into "cheap" cyclical assets [1][2]. Economic Data and Market Performance - Economic data remains strong, supporting the performance of cyclical assets, with the US ISM index rising and labor market stabilizing [3]. - Globally, developed market manufacturing PMI reached its highest level in a year, and emerging market manufacturing PMI also increased month-on-month [4]. - Goldman Sachs indicates that the market is underestimating the growth outlook for the US economy, which is projected to grow at 2.5% for the year, suggesting room for upward adjustments in cyclical expectations [5]. Sector Rotation and Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to embrace cyclical assets benefiting from economic recovery while being cautious of overvalued AI and large tech stocks [2]. - Emerging market stocks, the Australian dollar, copper, and capital goods and materials sectors in the US have seen significant gains, while previously leading AI and tech themes have experienced volatility [2]. - The market is shifting from expensive tech stocks to cheaper exposures, particularly in underperforming sectors, leading to "value" outperforming "growth" [6]. AI Sector Dynamics - The AI sector is facing increased volatility, with Goldman Sachs acknowledging the real productivity gains from AI but noting that the market has overvalued these benefits, particularly for companies directly involved in the AI boom [6][9]. - Concerns are rising regarding cash flow consumption by large cloud service providers and potential disruptions to software providers and certain financial/real estate sectors [8]. Currency and Global Market Trends - The US dollar has weakened due to tariff concerns and worries about the independence of the Federal Reserve, with the relative underperformance of US stocks compared to Europe and Japan prompting discussions on diversification and hedging [12]. - Currencies that align with global cyclical views, such as the Australian dollar, South African rand, Chilean peso, and Brazilian real, have become the biggest gainers against the US dollar [13]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - Goldman Sachs suggests continuing to bet on cyclical assets while selecting those with relatively cheap valuations, as there is still room for upward adjustments in growth expectations [15]. - The combination of ongoing volatility in AI themes and the potential for periodic spillover into index-level volatility supports a diversified equity portfolio and healthy non-US exposure, including emerging markets [16].

Core Viewpoint - Glencore reported a decline in annual earnings despite an improvement in the second half of the year, with adjusted EBITDA for 2025 down 6% year-on-year to $13.51 billion, slightly above analyst expectations of $13.31 billion [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's performance was impacted by falling energy and metallurgical coal prices, although stronger metal prices, including increased zinc revenues, partially offset these effects [1][4]. - Glencore's metal trading division achieved record performance, particularly in the copper sector, where traders capitalized on trading discrepancies and arbitrage opportunities [1][4]. - The adjusted earnings for the group in the second half of last year grew nearly 50% compared to the first half, with the industrial division's adjusted earnings increasing by 65% [3][6]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Strategic Moves - The energy trading division's performance aligned with challenging market conditions [2][5]. - Negotiations with Rio Tinto for a potential merger that could have created the world's largest mining company broke down in early February due to disagreements on key terms, including the retention of the chairman and CEO positions by Rio Tinto and the simulated ownership structure of the merged entity [3][6].

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on Canada and its allies, highlighting that rising costs in construction and retail are immediate consequences of these trade policies [1][3][20] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney's statement at the G20 reflects a shift towards seeking alternative partnerships, particularly with China, as a response to U.S. pressure [5][20][23] - The European Union is preparing a countermeasure plan worth €93 billion in response to U.S. tariffs, indicating a serious economic confrontation [3][11][28] Group 2 - The imposition of a 200% tariff on French wine and spirits could severely impact the French agricultural sector, which relies heavily on exports to the U.S. [3][11][18] - The article emphasizes that countries are increasingly looking to diversify their trade relationships to mitigate risks associated with U.S. unilateral actions [14][20][29] - The concept of "quietly building alternatives" is emerging, where nations like Canada and the EU are exploring partnerships outside of U.S. influence to ensure economic stability [23][26][30] Group 3 - The article suggests that the U.S. approach to trade is creating a new reality where allies are reconsidering their dependence on American markets [9][24][29] - The potential for Canada to enhance trade with China, India, and South Africa is highlighted as a strategic move to reduce reliance on the U.S. [20][23][28] - The ongoing trade tensions are prompting a reevaluation of global economic relationships, with countries seeking to establish parallel systems to safeguard their interests [20][30]

Inflation Trends - The CPI year-on-year decreased to 3.0%, while the core CPI fell to 6.1%, indicating a slowdown in inflation driven by lagging factors[3] - The nominal CPI was slightly below expectations due to a significant drop in energy prices and a continued slowdown in used car prices[3] - Core services saw a slight acceleration, primarily due to increases in non-residential costs, but housing costs continued to ease, supporting the core inflation target of around 2%[3] Food and Energy Prices - Food prices adjusted seasonally decreased from 3.6% in the previous month to 3.1%, with year-on-year growth remaining at 3.0%[3] - The energy index adjusted seasonally fell by 4.5%, with a year-on-year decline of 3.1%, significantly impacting nominal inflation[3] - Energy commodities saw a month-on-month decrease of 6.6%, with gasoline prices dropping by 6.1%[3] Core Goods and Services - Core goods, excluding food and energy, showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, indicating limited pass-through of tariff-related price increases[3] - Core services, excluding energy services, increased slightly to 3.5% month-on-month, reflecting marginal acceleration in service prices[3] Housing Costs - Housing costs decreased month-on-month by 0.3% and year-on-year by 4.3%, continuing a slow downward trend that limits service inflation[4] - The moderate increase in rent and owner-equivalent rent was consistent with leading rental indicators, supporting the easing of core inflation towards the 2% target[4] Market Expectations - The market's expectations for interest rate cuts remain stable, with CME data indicating a baseline pricing for three rate cuts throughout the year[4] - U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield decreasing to 3.67% and the 2-year yield down to 4.67%[4]

Group 1 - The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates a further slowdown in inflation growth, prompting the market to reassess the Federal Reserve's policy path [1] - In January, the overall CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, below the market expectation of 0.3%, and the year-on-year growth rate recorded 2.4%, also below the expected 2.5%, marking the smallest increase since May of the previous year [1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.3% month-on-month, in line with market expectations, while the year-on-year growth rate fell to 2.5%, matching expectations and indicating the slowest growth since March 2021 [1][3] Group 2 - The decline in inflation is primarily attributed to a significant drop in energy prices, with the energy index falling by 1.5% in January, and gasoline prices dropping by 3.2%, alleviating upward pressure on overall inflation data [3] - Housing costs remain a major contributor to inflation, increasing by 0.2% in January, but this increase is relatively mild compared to previous years, providing strong support for the inflation outlook [3] - Current CPI levels suggest that the Federal Reserve is nearing its 2% inflation target, although the market may not price in an earlier rate cut, a slight reduction in terminal rates is deemed reasonable based on current data [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S.-India trade agreement represents a significant shift in tariff structures and trade relations, with the U.S. reducing tariffs on Indian goods to 18% and India committing to substantial tax reductions on U.S. industrial and agricultural products, aiming for a $500 billion procurement of U.S. goods over the next five years [1][3][6] Group 1: Tariff and Trade Framework - The U.S. will apply an 18% "reciprocal tariff rate" on Indian goods, while India will lower tariffs on a wide range of U.S. products, including industrial goods and agricultural items [1][3] - The agreement includes a provision for the U.S. to remove tariffs on a range of products after the successful completion of a temporary agreement, which may include generic drugs, gemstones, and aircraft parts [3][6] - The framework aims to lower market entry barriers and enhance bilateral trade negotiations, with a focus on long-term benefits through regulatory alignment and standards recognition [3][9] Group 2: Procurement and Economic Security - The $500 billion procurement list includes energy, aircraft, precious metals, technology products, and coal, with a notable increase in trade related to data center technologies like GPUs [1][8] - The agreement emphasizes "economic security alignment," aiming to enhance supply chain resilience and innovation capabilities through collaborative investment reviews and export controls [8][9] - India's approach to energy procurement is shifting towards diversification, reducing reliance on Russian oil while increasing imports from the Middle East, Africa, and South America [8][9] Group 3: Future Negotiations and Implementation - The agreement is part of a broader strategy to facilitate future bilateral trade negotiations, with the U.S. seeking to open markets and increase exports while India aims to stabilize its external economic environment [6][10] - The success of the agreement will depend on the actual implementation of the terms, including the timely resolution of non-tariff barriers and the establishment of digital trade rules [10][12] - The framework reflects a modern approach to international trade negotiations, where tariffs are used to quickly alter negotiation dynamics, while procurement commitments serve to deliver immediate results [12]

来源：宏观fans哲 芦哲 S0600524110003 占烁 S0600524120005 核心观点 2月11日，国家统计局发布1月物价数据。1月CPI环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.2%，低于Wind一致预期0.44%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨 0.8%；PPI环比上涨0.4%，同比下降1.4%，基本持平于Wind一致预期。 核心观点：受到春节错月影响，1月CPI低于预期，但物价"表冷里热"，CPI和PPI回升的趋势都没有改变，CPI里医疗服务、耐用消费品、出行等价格仍在 持续改善，同时PPI环比+0.4%，创下28个月以来最大涨幅。往后看，对2026年物价形势可以更乐观一些，CPI同比可能从2月开始回升至1%以上，PPI同 比可能在6-7月前后转正，GDP平减指数可能在Q2-Q3转正。但是，由于这轮价格上涨更多是供给侧驱动，需求端改善幅度较小，这种情况下需要关注价 格改善的持续性。PPI和GDP平减指数能否转正不再是主要矛盾，2026年价格问题的关键在于这两个价格指数能维持多长时间的正增长。 | 同比 | CPI | 食品 | 非食 | 核心 | 消费 | 服务 | РЫ | 发 来 资 | ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - January CPI year-on-year growth decreased to 0.2%, down from 0.8% in the previous month[1] - The late timing of the Spring Festival this year had a minimal impact on January CPI, unlike last year when it began at the end of January[1] - Food CPI remained flat month-on-month in January, with a year-on-year decline of 0.7%[6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - January PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, with the growth rate further expanding compared to the previous month[2] - Year-on-year PPI decreased by 1.4%, but the rate of decline has narrowed[2] - The prices of non-ferrous metals saw an increased month-on-month growth, while fuel and building materials prices fell[2] Group 3: Future Outlook - CPI is expected to rebound in February due to the seasonal effects of the Spring Festival[2] - PPI growth momentum has improved significantly, with expectations for continued recovery this year[2] - By 2026, CPI growth is projected to rebound, and PPI year-on-year growth is expected to turn positive, leading to a notable acceleration in nominal GDP growth compared to 2025[2] Group 4: Risks - There are risks associated with declining real estate demand and increasing external uncertainties[3]