Let's welcome in now Ed Yardeni. He's the president of Yardeni Research with me once again at Post Nights. Good to see you.>> My pleasure. >> Um on that issue, you say we're not seeing a bubble, but rather a bubble and bubble fears. >> Well, right now we got a bubble and bubble fears, but there are clearly elements of a bubble of a real bubble.I mean, the mult the forward PE of the S&P 500 I is about 23 right now. And uh back during the tech bubble of the late 1990s, early 2000s, we got to 25. uh the the Bu ...

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 reached a new all-time high of 6715.79 on October 3rd, indicating continued market growth despite a minor technical dip the previous week [1] Market Performance - The S&P 500 closed at 6715.79, marking a significant milestone in its performance [1] - The market experienced a minor technical dip to the 20-day moving average (20dma) prior to reaching the new high [1]

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment is largely indifferent to political events such as government shutdowns, with a belief that any short-term impacts will be reversed in the medium term [2][3] - Focus remains on fundamentals, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and upcoming earnings reports, particularly from banks [3][4] Consumer Behavior - Recent reports from companies like Dicks indicate that consumer spending remains stable, despite ongoing concerns about consumer health [4] Investment Themes - The conversation around investment is shifting towards identifying tier three opportunities in the power sector, as tier one and tier two stocks have already garnered significant attention [5] - There is a prevailing theme of overinvestment in certain sectors, with notable figures like Zuckerberg suggesting that the risk lies in underinvesting rather than overinvesting [9] Market Cycle - Analysts are debating the current stage of the market cycle, with some suggesting that the market is further along than commonly perceived, potentially in the seventh inning of a capex boom [11] - There are concerns that if the capex spending is indeed nearing its peak, the current market rally may be shorter-lived than anticipated [13] Future Indicators - Key indicators to watch for potential market shifts include a decrease in capex, profit warnings, and changes in corporate financing activities, though no evidence of these changes is currently observed [14]

Market Overview - Global markets are showing resilience despite concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown, with positive momentum particularly noted in Asia driven by technology sector news [1][3] - There is a prevailing bullish sentiment in equity markets, with record highs being achieved in Europe, the U.S., and Asia [5] Equity Market Dynamics - The technology sector, especially companies like SK Hynix and Samsung, is experiencing significant enthusiasm, contributing to a substantial increase in valuations, with OpenAI's valuation reaching approximately $500 billion [3] - The current market environment is favorable for equity sellers, raising questions about the sustainability of this upward momentum and potential support levels during market dips [4] Government Bonds and Treasury Outlook - There is growing nervousness regarding government bonds, highlighted by a recent Japanese auction of ten-year bonds that did not perform well, indicating a lack of strong demand at bid prices [5][6] - Recent bond sales in Germany and the U.K. have also shown weak demand, suggesting a broader trend of investors favoring equities and gold over lower-yielding government bonds [7][8] - The impact of a prolonged U.S. government shutdown on Treasury demand is uncertain, with recent negative labor data leading to speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could positively influence Treasury prices [9][10]

Market Sentiment & Momentum - Global markets show bullish momentum, particularly in Asia, driven by technology news and enthusiasm for deals involving companies like SK Hynix and Samsung [1][3] - Concerns exist about a potential market bubble and its implications for trading strategies [2][4] - Equity markets are currently favorable for selling equity, but the sustainability of exponential growth is questioned [4] Government Bond Market - Nervousness surrounds government bonds, highlighted by a Japanese 10-year bond auction that didn't go completely smoothly [5][6] - Demand for government bonds is waning, potentially due to the attractiveness of equities and havens like gold [7] - Upcoming bond auctions in France, Spain, and potentially the UK will be closely monitored for demand metrics [8] US Treasuries & Government Shutdown - US Treasuries rallied due to surprisingly negative ADP labor numbers, fueling speculation about potential Fed interest rate cuts [9] - A prolonged US government shutdown could negatively impact the economy and potentially sour demand for US Treasuries over time [10] Company Valuation - Open AI's valuation is estimated to be around $500 billion [3]

Every great technology innovation cycle was funded by a bubble in capital markets.You can't get the benefit of the technology without the bubble.What most people see as a negative is actually an important part of human progress. ...

The Chinese government is understandably afraid of another bubble. Such fear may delay further cuts in interest rates. But hesitation also poses risks https://t.co/QK1SQTASsP ...

Parallels with 2015 are making the Chinese government nervous. The past year’s rally has already lasted longer than the more frenzied bubble of a decade ago https://t.co/6PjteSKbEp ...

Is the global art market undergoing a reorientation similar to the one Chinese buyers pulled off earlier this century? Or is this simply another bubble, like the one Indian art saw two decades ago? https://t.co/U0bdw59krs ...

Group 1 - The current market bubble may continue to rise, presenting an opportunity for trend-following strategies to capture additional gains [1] - A significant opportunity exists to short the bubble aggressively, potentially using put options, although timing remains a critical factor [1]