Monetary Policy & Interest Rates - The market anticipates a potential rate cut in September, influenced by Chairman Powell's recent statements [1] - The Federal Reserve (Fed) is increasingly concerned about rising unemployment rates, potentially triggered by changes in immigration policies and other factors [2] - The Fed's emphasis on employment over inflation, despite inflation being at 3% (above the 2% target), raises questions about its policy bias [6] - There's debate on whether current policies are "modestly restrictive," with arguments suggesting real rates are closer to neutral at 150 basis points (15%) [7] Economic Trends & Labor Market - The economy is experiencing a slowdown in both supply and demand, creating a "curious" situation [3] - Global demographic shifts, including declining fertility rates, are impacting the labor market [4] - Monthly job growth of 40,000 to 50,000 may not be a negative outcome, considering the evolving dynamics of the labor market [4] - Recent labor reports and revisions were not favorable, contributing to the Fed's openness to a September rate cut [5] Fed Independence & Political Pressure - There are concerns about the Fed's independence due to significant and direct political pressure, reminiscent of the Johnson and Nixon eras [12][13] - The Fed is under pressure from the administration, potentially affecting the reappointment of board members [12] - Chairman Powell is navigating differing views within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and attempting to build consensus [9][10] - The Fed's decisions are heavily data-dependent, closely monitoring upcoming inflation and employment reports before their September meeting [11]

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sent his strongest signal yet on Friday that the central bank is likely to lower interest rates next month. In a closely watched speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Powell cited sweeping changes in tax, trade, and immigration policies, noting that the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting the Fed's current policy stance. Stocks surged on Friday following those remarks.The Fed's next meeting is in midepptember. Joining us now, senior economics reporter for Axios, Co ...

Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is considering a potential interest rate cut at its next meeting in September [1] - Weakness in the labor market is a key factor influencing the Fed's decision-making process [1] - Inflation impacts from tariffs are visible but potentially short-lived [1] - Conflicting economic signals and a potential slowdown in the labor market may warrant interest rate adjustments [2] - Fed officials are divided on the timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts [2] Political Influence on the Federal Reserve - President Trump suggested he would fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook if she didn't resign [2] - The administration accused Lisa Cook of mortgage fraud, which is under investigation by the DOJ [3] - If Cook leaves, Trump could appoint a replacement, potentially shifting the balance of Republican appointees to four out of seven members [3]

Powell opened the door to a rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting during his speech at the Fed symposium, all the while Trump's shadow loomed over the event.@catarinasaraiva breaks down the key takeaways from Jackson Hole https://t.co/9k70FoQ7ef https://t.co/KU28k7awou ...

Neils ChristensenNeils Christensen has a diploma in journalism from Lethbridge College and has more than a decade of reporting experience working for news organizations throughout Canada. His experiences include covering territorial and federal politics in Nunavut, Canada. He has worked exclusively within the financial sector since 2007, when he started with the Canadian Economic Press. Neils can be contacted at: 1 866 925 4826 ext. 1526 nchristensen at kitco.com @Neils_cShareDisclaimer: The views expressed ...

Market Reaction & Rate Cut Probability - Market exuberance is noted, particularly in riskier, speculative market segments, following Powell's speech [4] - Market assigned approximately 80% probability of a rate cut in September prior to the speech, which increased to 85-86% during the conversation [4][5] - Market reactions should be considered, but the market is not always right [2][3] Inflation & Tariffs - Tariffs have begun to increase prices in some goods categories, with accumulating effects expected over the coming months [1] - Tariff inflation is likened to the "tariff Titanic" hitting the "inflation iceberg," suggesting significant impact [5] - Core inflation is projected to exceed 3% by year-end, influenced by both tariffs and service-side inflation [6] - The Federal Reserve acknowledges tariff inflation is coming through, as reflected in PPI (Producer Price Index) [11][12] Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - Powell's speech emphasized balance, assessing both upside risks for inflation and downside risks for the labor market [2] - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma balancing concerns about the labor market with rising inflation [7] - The Federal Reserve might not need to be as concerned about the labor market as expressed in the speech, given supply-side factors [7][8] - The Federal Reserve can choose to view inflation data differently and utilize various measures to justify a rate cut [12][13] Labor Market - The unemployment rate is at 42%, consistent with the rate a year prior [8]

So, we're going to bring in Loretta Mester, former Cleveland Fed President, uh, to this discussion. And Loretta, it's great to have you on, and I do want to get your thoughts, your takeaways, uh, from Fed Chair Pal, and what he presented this morning. >> Well, a clear indication that he's ready, um, to move rates down, I think, based on the data he's seen so far and what he thinks is likely to happen.And I think of it as being viewed more like an insurance cut against the downside risk to the employment par ...

RT THE HUNTER ✴️ (@TrueGemHunter)BREAKING NEWS ‼️September rate cut is a done deal.Markets about to have a HUGE pump, expecting $ETH 5000 and $BTC 120k to hit very fast ...

market, which was pricing in 65% chance that the fed would cut in September before the speech, now at 100%. Let's bring in our panel to react to what we just heard. Steve Liesman, Paul McCulley, both still with us, along with our own senior markets commentator, Mike Santoli.Steve, I want to start with you out there in Jackson Hole. Your reaction. >> Well, I have here what I've written down as four reasons why the fed may cut and one reason why it may not.So it's 4 to 1 in that regard. It may cut because the ...

Fed Chair Jerome Powell carefully opened the door to a rate cut in September. President Donald Trump says he would fire Lisa Cook if she does not resign. Listen to those stories and more on Bloomberg News Now. https://t.co/YbFWeXvVck ...