Economic Outlook - The economy is potentially transitioning from a summer slowdown into an acceleration phase, supported by encouraging retail sales data [3][4] - Labor market weakness is contributing to the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut [3] - An improved economic environment could lead to stock market gains [4] Monetary Policy - The market anticipates potential rate cuts, with some speculating up to 50 basis points [6][8] - The Federal Reserve may consider a 50 basis point rate cut as an "insurance" against a weakening labor market [8] - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet runoff, particularly the $35 billion per month in MBS runoff, is exerting subtle tightening pressure on financial conditions [10][11] - Ending the balance sheet runoff could alleviate pressure on the mortgage market [12][13] Investment Opportunities - Materials, staples, and energy sectors, which have underperformed in the recent rally, present attractive investment opportunities [15] - Electric equipment and AI power sectors have outperformed since April 8th [15]

Bitcoin just reached a new ATH yesterday, this process of repeating ATH‘s will repeat in the coming weeks and months based on continued increase of the money supplyThe increase of the money supply will be intensified after the next rate cut in September. ...

Financial Impact of Rate Cut - A 100 bps rate cut would decrease Circle's annualized revenue by $618 million (-23%) [1] - Gross profit would decrease by $303 million (-30%) due to the rate cut [1] - Circle's margins would decrease by 3.3 percentage points following the rate cut [1] - Valuation would increase from 42x EV/annualized gross profit to 60.4x, approximately 50% higher [1] Strategies to Offset Impact - USDC supply would need to grow by $28 billion, representing 44% of the current $64 billion, to offset the rate cut impact [1] - Circle is pushing to launch transaction flow monetization products like CPN and Circle Chain [1] Market Actions - Circle conducted a ~$1.5 billion share sale [1] - Rate cuts are considered inevitable [1]

Market Overview & Investment Strategy - The current environment is considered favorable for investing in both stocks and bonds [1] - Potential for two or three rate cuts this year could cushion expected softness in the third and fourth quarters [2] - Equity markets, both public and private, are seen as having more value due to innovation and earnings growth potential [4] - The IPO market is perking up, with activity up approximately 21% year-over-year, and M&A activity up about 30% [5] IPO Market Dynamics - Average IPOs over $1 billion are up about 50-60%, indicating strength in companies that waited to go public [7] - Mispricing is occurring in the IPO market, suggesting strong demand for growth stories from both retail and institutional investors [9] - Clarity around tariffs and the Federal Reserve's actions, along with a US economy growing at nearly 2%, are contributing to IPO market success [10][11] Sector Opportunities - Financials are benefiting from capital market activity, with consumer spending showing 4-5% growth in credit card spending for July [11][12] - Industrials are expected to benefit from infrastructure spending incentives [13] - AI data centers are a significant opportunity, with companies like Edgecore scaling to meet the demand from hyperscalers [13][14]

To cut or not to cut, that is the question. The market seems to have made its call. Is it right.Let's ask Robert Kaplan. He's the former Dallas Fed president, vice chairman at Goldman Sachs, and he is here at Post Nights. Nice to see you. >> Good to see you.>> I noted you avoided the incoming today in the uh presidential missive at Goldman Sachs. Congratulations. He wants cuts.He's made that clear. Rick Reer sat with me not 15 20 minutes ago and said Fed should cut. Way too restrictive.You don't sound like ...

Of course, there's been so much focus on the Kevins Warsh and Hassett and Chris Waller, as well as potential replacements for Chair Powell. Now, there are even more names thrown into the ring. What should we know about these other three new candidates.That's right. It certainly looks like a suddenly wide open field for the Fed chair position. What was what seemed like he was down to two or three names a few weeks ago.He's now all of a sudden almost ten names in play. But the new candidates share one thing i ...

Market Trends - Bitcoin experienced a short squeeze, rising from $119 thousand to $122 thousand in minutes [1] - The market anticipates a strong Q4 due to Wall Street's return from summer, a steady U S economy, and the expectation of the first interest rate cut in a year [1]

Everyone always talks about four names in the running. Although President Trump has told us Scott Bessant asked him to stay at Treasury. So that leaves the Kevins one of whom is normally hawkish.WARSH Right. And then Chris Waller, who's been telling the Trump line, really, Waller has always been seen as sort of the insurance policy for the president, because he's already on the board and he is already confirmed. He would have to undergo another confirmation process to become chair.But it is likely very like ...

Interest Rate Policy - The market is pricing in potentially as many as three rate cuts this year, but DoubleLine maintains a base case of two rate cuts in 2024 [12] - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by approximately 25 basis points following the jobs report, indicating market anticipation of rate cuts [7][14] - The spread between the Fed funds rate and the 2-year Treasury widened to 70 basis points, a level reminiscent of conditions preceding a rate cut 12 months prior [7][8] Economic Data Reliability - Surveys for the jobs report are experiencing a declining response rate, with only 60% being returned [10] - Approximately 35% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) input prices are now estimated or "imputed," raising concerns about data reliability [11] - Job reports have a tendency to be revised lower, with 45 out of 48 reports under the current administration being revised downwards after the initial release [13] Labor Market Analysis - The jobs report showed a revision of over 250,000 jobs [7] - The Fed is perceived to be at its employment target but not at its inflation target [6]

Let's bring in Jeremy Seagull, professor emmeritus of finance uh at University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business and chief economist at Wisdom Wisdom Tree. I think you're Jeremy Professor, your ship's coming in. Uh the economy has been weaker than than people thought, I think.Yeah. Yeah. And first of all, I'm not going to let the BLS off the hook.I mean, you know, you talk about how to fix it. you know, make these questionnaires mandatory and give them a time limit to fill it out. Um, you know, I ...