Simply put, lower interest rates could indicate a stabilizing economy, though recent data shows inflation has been somewhat stubborn. Given that COLA adjustments are typically tied to inflation rates, investors can assess via longer-duration bond yields where inflation may come in at over the coming year or two.As many investors may be aware, the annual cost of living adjustment (COLA) put forward by the Social Security Administration is aimed at helping seniors navigate rising prices across the economy. Th ...

Core Insights - Copper prices reached a record high of $11,906 per ton, driven by a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and an upgraded growth forecast for the US economy [2][3] - The Fed's new growth projection for the US economy is 2.3% for next year, an increase from the previous estimate of 1.8%, with inflation expected to slow to 2.4% [3] - The positive outlook for the US economy is expected to enhance demand for industrial metals, despite a recent decline in Chinese copper consumption [4] Industry Summary - Copper has increased nearly 35% this year, influenced by mine disruptions and anticipated shortages outside the US, as traders prepare for potential tariffs [5] - The renewable energy sector is driving long-term demand for copper, contributing to its price rally [5] - Other industrial metals also saw price increases, with tin rising 4.4% to $41,751 per ton and zinc jumping 3.9% [5]

at Post9. It's great to have you back, Joyce. Good to see you on the Fed.We were just talking off camera the u the view the number of dot participants who see downside to GDP, that number is down to eight. That's that's been that's a pretty nice view of how constructive 26 may be. >> Well, it's not just 26.If you look to 20 28, you know, because they have you revised the forecast. So, you're looking at like 8/10en of a point higher in growth. So, it seems signal.I think the market is looking at this and say ...

the former director of the National Economic Council during President Trump's first term. Gary Con, also the former president of Goldman Sachs and current vice chair of IBM. Got it all in.Gary, welcome. Always good to have you after Fed day like this. So, what do you think they're going to do next.>> First of all, it's great to be here. >> Thank you. >> Well, look, I I think we're in the same place we've been for the last year. And what I call that is we're in the sort of great dilemma. And I think the Fed' ...

My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. The Federal Reserve says they're fighting inflation. They say they are committed to a 2% target and that they're well positioned to wait and see.But the charts tell a very different story. While everyone is distracted by the quarter point rate cut and the drama of the dissenting votes, we're staring down the barrel of a massive liquidity injection in ...

Core Insights - The perception of financial security at age 50 with $3 million and a $1 million house is increasingly challenged by rising costs, longer lifespans, and changing expectations in today's economy [1][2][4] - Many individuals in similar financial situations feel less secure than anticipated, often due to real financial pressures rather than just mindset [2] Financial Accomplishments - Achieving a net worth of $3 million by age 50 is a significant accomplishment that often requires sacrifices, such as enduring a stressful job or living below one's means [3] - Acknowledging financial successes is important, but it is equally crucial to understand that modern financial freedom differs greatly from previous generations [4] Retirement Planning - Setting clear financial goals is essential for assessing progress; for instance, a 50-year-old with $3 million aiming for $6 million by age 65 can potentially reach that goal without additional contributions, assuming modest gains [5] - A $3 million portfolio can generate approximately $120,000 annually at a 4% withdrawal rate, but healthcare costs can significantly impact retirement savings [6]

Welcome to Morning Brief presented by Robin Hood, the home to commission free trading. I'm Julie Hyman. Let's get to the three things you need to know today. First up, Oracle shares are sinking and reigniting concerns over the AI trade. Investors were disappointed by the company's cloud sales and an increase in data center spending. Oracle has also taken out significant sums of debt and committed to leasing multiple data center sites. But its massive spending isn't yet translating into revenue, at least not ...

Trade and Geopolitical Factors - Trade deal timeline is uncertain, influenced by geopolitical developments more than bilateral trade issues [1][2] - A trade deal agreement would significantly boost Indian market sentiment by removing risk premium [4] - Trade uncertainties impact GDP projections, but domestic economy and exporter diversification mitigate negative effects [5] Economic Growth and Reforms - India's potential growth has likely increased due to decade-long structural reforms, including public infrastructure investment, digital infrastructure rollout, GST, and insolvency/bankruptcy code [8] - The economy has consistently outperformed expectations in the last five years post-COVID, suggesting potential for continued positive surprises in fiscal year 2026-2027 [11] - RBI estimates India's growth at 73% for fiscal year 2025-2026, and predicts around 67% for the next fiscal year [10] Consumption and Household Savings - Consumption is expected to strengthen, particularly in urban India, supported by GST reform and direct tax relief [12][14] - Rural consumption is performing well due to successive good monsoons and real wage/income growth [12][13] - India's household savings rate has increased from 49% of GDP in 2022-2023 to 6% of GDP, indicating improved household balance sheets [15] Rupee and Inflation - Weaker rupee improves the Indian trade balance on a net basis, offsetting import costs and benefiting exporters [17][18] - Rupee weakness reflects investor caution and is undervalued relative to India's economic fundamentals [20][22] - The rupee could be undervalued by 5% to 15% in real effective terms [24] - Lower inflation is seen as beneficial for the Indian economy, reflecting the impact of structural reforms on supply-side constraints [32] Aviation Industry - Recent disruptions in the aviation sector, such as flight cancellations, are expected to lead to better systems and resilience in the long run [38] - The long-term impact of aviation issues on Indian domestic and foreign tourism is not expected to be significant, given growing market and purchasing power [40]

Core Insights - The Consumer Staples sector is viewed as a defensive haven for investors during economic turbulence and high inflation due to the inelastic demand for essential goods [1][2] - The current U.S. economy is facing persistent inflation and a softening job market, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% in September 2025, the highest since October 2021 [4][6] - Consumer sentiment has declined, leading households to prioritize spending on core necessities while reducing discretionary spending [7][9] Economic Environment - The Federal Reserve has been cutting interest rates to support the job market, but these measures alone are insufficient to stimulate the economy [4][5] - Unfavorable trade policies, including tariffs, are acknowledged as critical headwinds affecting inflation [5][6] Consumer Behavior - A shift in consumer spending is evident, with a focus on affordable options and core necessities like meat and dairy, impacting retailers differently [8][10] - A McKinsey & Company survey indicates that consumers plan to spend more on core categories in the fourth quarter, reflecting a prioritization of necessities [10] Investment Opportunities - Amid economic uncertainty, consumer staple ETFs are recommended for investors seeking stability [11][12] - The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) has $14.9 billion in assets, with a year-to-date gain of 1.4% [13] - The Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) has $7.3 billion in assets and a year-to-date gain of 2.4% [14] - The iShares U.S. Consumer Staples ETF (IYK) has $1.19 billion in assets and a year-to-date gain of 4.1% [15]

Richard Clar is here, former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve and global ep e e e e e e e e e e e e e e e e e e e economic adviser at PINCO. Thanks Rich for coming in. Um yeah, glad to be here.>> And I was going to start with a half empty half full analysis. So if if JPAL on the one hand says man um we look at at what's going on and we're worried about inflation and we're worried about uh the jobs market. This is a really complicated time for monetary policy.That's the half empty. the half full is, you ...